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Background: Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)., Aims: To identify risk factors and construct a predictive model for HCC development., Methods: We retrospectively analysed patients with CHB with HBsAg seroclearance. Primary outcome was HCC development. Factors identified from a multivariate Cox model in the training cohort, consisting of 3476 patients from two Korean hospitals, were used to construct the prediction model. External validation was performed using data from 5255 patients in Hong Kong., Results: In the training cohort, HCC occurred in 102 patients during 24,019 person-years of observation (0.43%/year). Risk scores were assigned to cirrhosis (C:3), age ≥50 years (A:2), male sex (M:3) and platelet count <150,000/mm 3 (P:1); all were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC in multivariate analysis The time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristic curves for 5, 10 and 15 years in the training and validation cohorts were 0.782, 0.817 and 0.825 and 0.785, 0.771 and 0.796, respectively. In the validation cohort, 85 patients developed HCC (0.24%/year). The corresponding incidence of HCC in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups were 0.07%, 0.37% and 0.90%, respectively., Conclusions: The CAMP-B score (cirrhosis, age ≥50 years, male sex and platelet count <150,000/mm 3 /L) was significantly associated with HCC development after HBsAg seroclearance. CAMP-B score can be easily implemented in real-world clinical practice and helps stratify HCC risk in patients with CHB following HBsAg seroclearance., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Early screening may prevent fibrosis progression in metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD)., Aims: We developed and validated MAFLD fibrosis score (MFS) for identifying advanced fibrosis (≥F3) among MAFLD patients., Methods: This cross-sectional, multicentre study consecutively recruited MAFLD patients receiving tertiary care (Malaysia as training cohort [n = 276] and Hong Kong and Wenzhou as validation cohort [n = 431]). Patients completed liver biopsy, vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), and clinical and laboratory assessment within 1 week. We used machine learning to select 'highly important' predictors of advanced fibrosis, followed by backward stepwise regression to construct MFS formula., Results: MFS was composed of seven variables: age, body mass index, international normalised ratio, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, platelet count, and history of type 2 diabetes. MFS demonstrated an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.848 [95% CI 0.800-898] and 0.823 [0.760-0.886] in training and validation cohorts, significantly higher than aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (0.684 [0.603-0.765], 0.663 [0.588-0.738]), Fibrosis-4 index (0.793 [0.735-0.854], 0.737 [0.660-0.814]), and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (0.785 [0.731-0.844], 0.750 [0.674-0.827]) (DeLong's test p < 0.05). MFS could include 92.3% of patients using dual cut-offs of 14 and 15, with a correct prediction rate of 90.4%, resulting in a larger number of patients with correct diagnosis compared to other scores. A two-step MFS-VCTE screening algorithm demonstrated positive and negative predictive values and overall diagnostic accuracy of 93.4%, 89.5%, and 93.2%, respectively, with only 4.0% of patients classified into grey zone., Conclusion: MFS outperforms conventional non-invasive scores in predicting advanced fibrosis, contributing to screening in MAFLD patients., (© 2023 The Authors. Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Baveno VII was proposed for non-invasive identification of clinically significant portal hypertension. However, a substantial proportion of patients is classified in the grey zone (i.e., liver stiffness 15-24.9 kPa and/or platelet count <150 × 10 9 /L)., Aims: To evaluate the risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in patients in the grey zone, and to determine the prognostic role of spleen stiffness measurement., Methods: We included prospective cohorts (from Hong Kong, Korea and France) of patients who had undergone transient elastography examination for chronic liver disease. We estimated risk of hepatic decompensation using competing risk regression with hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related death as competing events., Results: We identified 2763 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). There were 1243 (44.9%) and 536 (19.4%) patients in the Baveno VII grey zone and high-risk groups, respectively. The cumulative incidence of decompensation at 5 years was significantly different among low-risk (0.6% [95% CI: 0.2%-1.3%]), grey zone 4.2% (95% CI: 3.1%-5.4%) and high-risk groups (11.4% [95% CI: 8.7%-14.6%]). By competing risk analysis, aetiology of liver disease (alcohol-related liver disease), albumin-bilirubin score and alkaline phosphatase level were independently associated with decompensation among patients in the grey zone. The combination of Baveno VII and spleen stiffness significantly reduced patients classified into grey zone (12.8% in cACLD patients), while maintaining high discrimination of decompensation in low- and high-risk groups., Conclusions: Patients in grey zone of Baveno VII criteria remain at high risk of hepatic decompensation. Clinical risk factors and spleen stiffness can further stratify the risk in such patients., (© 2023 The Authors. Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: It is uncertain whether people with HIV infection have a higher incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) than the general population., Aims: To compare the incidence of HCC between people infected with HBV and/or HCV with and without HIV METHODS: We performed a retrospective population-based cohort study, involving people with HBV and/or HCV infection from 2001 to 2018. The primary endpoint was incidence of HCC; secondary endpoint was all-cause mortality. We performed Cox proportional hazard regression models to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of HIV for the primary and secondary endpoints., Results: We identified 1374 people infected with HIV and 39,908 people without HIV with HBV and/or HCV infection. Among those with HIV, 654 (47.6%) had HBV, 649 (47.2%) HCV and 71 (5.2%) HBV-HCV-co-infection; they were younger, and had a higher prevalence of HCV and a lower prevalence of cirrhosis. The incidence rate estimates of HCC were, respectively, 1.5 (95% CI: 0.8-2.5) and 7.6 (95% CI 7.3-8.0) per 1000 person-years for those with and without HIV infection. Using multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models, among people with HBV, HIV was associated with lower risk of HCC (adjusted HR: 0.376, 95% CI: 0.201-0.704, p = 0.01) and death (adjusted HR: 0.692, 95% CI: 0.552-0.867, p = 0.007). Risks of HCC were similar for HCV and HBV-HCV co-infection for people with and without HIV., Conclusions: Among individuals with HBV infection, the Incidence of HCC was lower in those with HIV. For HCV infection, incidence of HCC was similar between those with and without HIV., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: We aimed to determine the trends in risk factor control and treatment among patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in 2000-2020., Methods: We conducted a territory-wide cohort study of adult patients with NAFLD and T2D diagnosed between 1 January 2000 and 31 July 2021 in Hong Kong. T2D was defined by use of any anti-diabetic agents, laboratory tests and/or diagnosis codes., Results: This study included 16,084 patients with NAFLD and T2D (mean age, 54.8 ± 12.0 years; 7124 male [44.3%]). The percentage of patients achieving individualised haemoglobin A 1c (HbA 1c ) targets increased from 44.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 42.9-46.1) to 64.8% (95% CI, 64.1-65.5), and percentage of patients achieving individualised low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) targets increased from 23.3% (95% CI, 21.9-24.7) to 54.3% (95% CI, 53.5-55.1) from 2000-2005 to 2016-2020, whereas percentage of patients achieving blood pressure control (<140/90 mm Hg) remained static at 53.1-57.2%. Combination therapy for diabetes increased, especially among those with poor glycaemic control, but there was no increase in combination therapy for hypertension. Fewer cirrhotic patients achieved blood pressure control and individualised LDL-C targets, but they were more likely to achieve individualised HbA 1c targets than non-cirrhotics. Metformin and statins were underused in cirrhotic patients. Younger patients (18-44 years) were less likely to achieve individualised HbA 1c targets than middle-aged (45-64 years) and older ones (≥65 years)., Conclusions: From 2000 to 2020, glycaemic and lipid control improved significantly, whereas blood pressure control remained static among patients with NAFLD and T2D., (© 2023 The Authors. Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Universal vaccination of newborns with hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccine is the most important strategy to prevent chronic HBV infection and its complications of which hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) as the deadliest., Aims: To evaluate the impact of universal HBV vaccination on the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, and the incidences of HCC and hepatic events in young adults born before and after the introduction of the universal HBV vaccination programme in 1988 in Hong Kong METHODS: This was a territory-wide retrospective observational cohort study of consecutive adult subjects born in 1970-2002 with hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) checked. Subjects born during the vaccination era (1988-2002) were included in the vaccinated cohort; subjects born between 1970 and 1987 were included in the unvaccinated cohort., Results: We included 695,925 subjects for HBV prevalence analysis. Chronic HBV infection dropped from 14.3% in subjects born in 1970, to 6.7% in subjects born in 1988. In total, 53,960 vaccinated and 318,290 unvaccinated subjects who had available clinical data were included for event analysis. HCC and hepatic events occurred in 44 (0.1%) and 75 (0.1%) of the vaccinated subjects and in 1305 (0.4%) and 1806 (0.6%) of the unvaccinated subjects, respectively. All incidence rates remained numerically lower in vaccinated subjects after adjustment for age, gender and antiviral treatment, but failed to reach statistical significance due to very low incidence rates., Conclusions: Universal HBV vaccination markedly reduces the prevalence of chronic HBV infection and may contribute to the decreased incidences of HCC and hepatic events., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: It is unknown whether patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who achieved hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance spontaneously or following anti-viral therapy have similar clinical outcomes., Aim: To compare the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with CHB who either cleared HBsAg spontaneously or following anti-viral therapy METHODS: Adult CHB-monoinfected patients who cleared HBsAg between January 2000 and March 2019 were identified from a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. Patients with liver transplantation and/or HCC before HBsAg loss were excluded. Patients' demographics, comorbidities, anti-viral treatment, laboratory parameters and HCC development were analysed., Results: Of 7,124 identified patients with CHB who cleared HBsAg, mean age was 58.1 ± 13.8 years; 4,340 (60.9%) were male; 451 (6.3%) had cirrhosis; 5,917 (83.1%) and 1,207 (16.9%) had spontaneous and nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA)-induced HBsAg seroclearance, respectively. Most patients had normal liver function at HBsAg loss. Patients with NA-induced HBsAg seroclearance were younger, and more likely to be male and cirrhotic than patients with spontaneous HBsAg loss. At a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 4.3 (2.2-7.6) years, 97 (1.6%) and 16 (1.3%) patients with spontaneous and NA-induced HBsAg loss developed HCC, respectively. Patients who achieved NA-induced HBsAg loss had comparable HCC risk as those with spontaneous HBsAg loss (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio 0.75, 95% CI 0.43-1.32, P = 0.323). The results remained robust in propensity score weighting and matching analyses., Conclusion: The HCC risk was similarly low after either spontaneous or NA-induced HBsAg seroclearance in a territory-wide cohort of patients with CHB who had cleared HBsAg., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Little is known of the outcome of patients with perianal Crohn's disease after stopping anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) therapy., Aim: To evaluate the rate of relapse in perianal Crohn's disease (CD) after stopping anti-TNF therapy., Methods: Consecutive perianal CD patients treated with anti-TNF therapy with subsequent discontinuation were retrieved from prospective inflammatory bowel disease database of institutes in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore from 1997 to June 2019. Cumulative probability of perianal CD relapse was estimated using Kaplan-Meier method., Results: After a median follow-up of 89 months (interquartile range [IQR]: 65-173 months), 44 of the 78 perianal CD patients (56.4%) relapsed after stopping anti-TNF, defined as increased fistula drainage or recurrence of previously healed fistula, after stopping anti-TNF therapy. Cumulative probabilities of perianal CD relapse were 50.8%, 72.6% and 78.0% at 12, 36 and 60 months, respectively. Younger age at diagnosis of CD [adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.04; 95% CI 1.01-1.09; P = .04] was associated with a higher chance of perianal CD relapse. Among those with perianal CD relapse (n = 44), retreatment with anti-TNF induced remission in 24 of 29 patients (82.8%). Twelve (27.3%) patients required defunctioning surgery and one (2.3%) required proctectomy. Maintenance with thiopurine was not associated with a reduced likelihood of relapse [HR = 1.10; 95% CI: 0.58-2.12; P = .77]. Among the 17 patients who achieved radiological remission of perianal CD, five (35.3%) developed relapse after stopping anti-TNF therapy after a median of 6 months., Conclusions: More than half of the perianal CD patients developed relapse after stopping anti-TNF therapy. Most regained response after resuming anti-TNF. However, more than one-fourth of the perianal CD patients with relapse required defunctioning surgery. Radiological assessment before stopping anti-TNF is crucial in perianal CD., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Lamivudine and entecavir reduce hepatic events and death in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with cirrhosis, but the impact of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is less well studied., Aim: To investigate the effectiveness of TDF therapy in CHB patients with cirrhosis., Methods: We studied TDF-treated and untreated CHB patients with cirrhosis from three tertiary centres. TDF cohort included consecutive patients who received TDF for ≥12 months while the untreated cohort were historical controls receiving routine clinical care prior to the availability of anti-viral therapy. The primary outcome was 5-year cumulative probability of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with secondary outcomes being hepatic decompensation and death or liver transplantation (LT)., Results: A total of 1088 (291 untreated and 797 TDF-treated) patients were included in the study. Five-year cumulative probabilities in untreated vs TDF-treated cohorts were 14.9% vs 9.8% for HCC (P = .07), 22.3% vs 5.9% for decompensation (P < .01) and 13.1% vs 1.1% for death or LT (P < .01) respectively. On multivariable Cox regression, TDF treatment was independently associated with reduced risks of HCC (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.46, P < .01), decompensating events (aHR 0.28, P = .01) and death or LT (aHR 0.06, P < .01). On sensitivity analyses, these risk reductions with TDF treatment were consistently demonstrated regardless of severity of liver disease and prior anti-viral treatment. TDF treatment led to sustained improvements in most validated prognostic scores for predicting HCC, decompensation and death., Conclusions: Compared to untreated patients, TDF treatment reduces the risks of HCC, hepatic decompensation and death in CHB patients with cirrhosis at 5 years., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: The Liver stiffness measurement hepatocellular carcinoma (LSM-HCC) score predicts HCC accurately in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)., Aim: To assess the ability of LSM-HCC combined with enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score to predict HCC in CHB patients who received anti-viral treatment., Methods: CHB patients who had transient elastography examinations in 2006-2013 with intermediate and high risk of HCC by LSM-HCC score (ie 11 or above) were assessed by repeat transient elastography at least 3 years later. ELF score was assessed by retrieving the stored serum samples 4 weeks within transient elastography examination. The primary endpoint was the cumulative incidence of HCC., Results: A total of 453 CHB patients (mean age 51.7 ± 10.3 years; male 74.4%) were recruited, 45 patients (9.9%) developed HCC during the mean follow-up of 56 months. Regarding LSM-HCC score, 71.4%, 24.3% and 4.3% of patients had LSM-HCC score improved, remained static and deteriorated respectively; whereas 36.9%, 57.8% and 5.3% of patients had ELF score improved, remained static and deteriorated respectively. The sensitivity (86.7%) and negative predictive value (NPV) (95.3%) of combined LSM-HCC and ELF score were higher than that of each score alone. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that ELF score would help further differentiate the HCC risk in patients with intermediate risk by LSM-HCC score (P = 0.026), but not in patients with high risk by LSM-HCC score (P = 0.770)., Conclusions: The two-step algorithm combining LSM-HCC score and ELF score could improve the accuracy of predicting HCC of CHB patients receiving anti-viral treatment., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Patients with a history of Helicobacter pylori-negative idiopathic bleeding ulcers have an increased risk of recurring ulcer complications., Aim: To build a machine learning model to identify patients at high risk for recurrent ulcer bleeding., Methods: Data from a retrospective cohort of 22 854 patients (training cohort) diagnosed with peptic ulcer disease in 2007-2016 were analysed to build a model (IPU-ML) to predict recurrent ulcer bleeding. We tested the IPU-ML in all patients with a diagnosis of gastrointestinal bleeding (n = 1265) in 2008-2015 from a different catchment population (independent validation cohort). Any co-morbid conditions which had occurred in >1% of study population were eligible as predictors., Results: Recurrent ulcer bleeding developed in 4772 patients (19.5%) in the training cohort, during a median follow-up period of 2.7 years. IPU-ML model built on six parameters (age, baseline haemoglobin, and presence of gastric ulcer, gastrointestinal diseases, malignancies, and infections) identified patients with bleeding recurrence within 1 year with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.648. When we set the IPU-ML cutoff value at 0.20, 27.5% of patients were classified as high risk for rebleeding with a sensitivity of 41.4%, specificity of 74.6%, and a negative predictive value of 91.1%. In the validation cohort, the IPU-ML identified patients with a recurrence ulcer bleeding within 1 year with an AUROC of 0.775, and 84.3% of overall accuracy., Conclusion: We developed a machine-learning model to identify those patients with a history of idiopathic gastroduodenal ulcer bleeding who are not at high risk for recurrent ulcer bleeding., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: In clinical trials involving patients with preserved renal function, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) use was associated with mild renal impairment in 1% of patients., Aim: To compare serial renal function of entecavir (ETV)-treated, TDF-treated, and untreated patients with chronic hepatitis B., Methods: We studied the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in a territory-wide cohort of patients with chronic hepatitis B without treatment and of those on ETV or TDF treatment. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was determined by the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration equation and was classified into five CKD stages. CKD progression, defined as an increase of at least one CKD stage, was compared among treated and untreated patients., Results: After propensity score matching, 2254 ETV-treated, 2254 TDF-treated, and 2254 untreated patients were included in the analysis. Their mean baseline eGFR was 90.3 ± 19.6, 91.3 ± 20.6, and 92.2 ± 20.0 mL/min/1.73 m 2 , respectively. During a mean follow-up of 2.4 ± 1.5 years, 639 ETV-treated, 706 TDF-treated, and 564 untreated patients exhibited CKD progression ≥1 stage. The 5-year cumulative incidence (95% confidence interval) of CKD progression was 43% (40%-46%) in ETV-treated, 48% (45%-51%) in TDF-treated, and 43% (39%-47%) in untreated patients (reference group), respectively (P = 0.267 and <0.001, respectively). The number of patients who exhibited CKD progression ≥2 stages was 92 (4.1%) in the untreated cohort, 95 (4.2%) in the ETV-treated cohort, and 51 (2.3%) in the TDF-treated cohort., Conclusions: The use of TDF was associated with mild renal impairment in a minority of patients; those treated with ETV had a similar risk compared to untreated patients., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)