1. Latent Trajectory Classes for Alcohol-Related Blackouts from Age 15 to 19 in ALSPAC.
- Author
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Schuckit, Marc A., Smith, Tom L., Heron, Jon, Hickman, Matthew, Macleod, John, Munafo, Marcus R., Kendler, Kenneth S., Dick, Danielle M., and Davey‐Smith, George
- Subjects
COMPLICATIONS of alcoholism ,ANALYSIS of variance ,CHI-squared test ,CONFIDENCE intervals ,QUESTIONNAIRES ,RESEARCH funding ,SEX distribution ,STATISTICS ,DATA analysis ,MULTIPLE regression analysis ,STRUCTURAL equation modeling ,ALCOHOL-induced disorders ,DESCRIPTIVE statistics ,ODDS ratio - Abstract
Background Alcohol-related blackouts ( ARBs) are reported by ~50% of drinkers. While much is known about the prevalence of ARBs in young adults and their cross-sectional correlates, there are few prospective studies regarding their trajectories over time during mid-adolescence. This paper reports latent trajectory classes of ARBs between age 15 and 19, along with predictors of those patterns. Methods Latent class growth analysis ( LCGA) was used to evaluate the pattern of occurrence of ARBs across 4 time points for 1,402 drinking adolescents from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children ( ALSPAC). Multinomial regression analyses evaluated age-15 demography, substance-related items, externalizing characteristics, and estimated peer substance use as predictors of latent class membership. Results ARBs were reported at age 15 in 30% and at age 19 in 74% of these subjects. Four latent trajectory classes were identified: Class 1 (5.1%) reported no blackouts; for Class 2 (29.5%), ARBs rapidly increased with age; for Class 3 (44.9%), blackouts slowly increased; and for Class 4 (20.5%), ARBs were consistently reported. Using Class 2 (rapid increasers) as the reference, predictors of class membership included female sex, higher drinking quantities, smoking, externalizing characteristics, and estimated peer substance involvement (pseudo R
2 = 0.22). Conclusions ARBs were common and repetitive in these young subjects, and predictors of their trajectories over time involved multiple domains representing diverse characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2015
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