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Background Low levels of alcohol responses (low LRs) are genetically influenced phenotypes that are identified before alcohol dependence and predict future heavy drinking and alcohol problems. A recent paper described 13 LR-related blood oxygen level-dependent ( BOLD) response contrast patterns observed during an emotional face recognition task that might reflect cognitive processes contributing to LR and that might themselves predict adverse alcohol outcomes ( Paulus et al., Biol Psychiatry 2012; 72: 848). This paper evaluates the predictive implications of those functional magnetic resonance imaging (f MRI) patterns. Methods Of 120 subjects from Paulus and colleagues (2012), 114 (57 low and high LRs; ~50% females) were interviewed 5 years later at age 25. Correlations between baseline f MRI patterns and alcohol-related outcomes were evaluated, and regression analyses were used to determine if BOLD response contrasts incremented over LR in predicting outcomes. Results Baseline f MRI patterns in 5 of 13 baseline regions of interest correlated with adverse outcomes. Such patterns in insular regions, particularly the left anterior insula, and the right frontal gyrus, added to LR in predicting alcohol problems. The relationships remained robust when exact binomial procedures were used, but, reflecting the small sample size, it was not possible to adequately consider Bonferroni corrections. Conclusions The data suggest that f MRI BOLD response contrasts predicted heavier drinking and alcohol problems 5 years later, even after considering baseline low LRs. Future work will focus on whether f MRI results can predict outcomes in larger samples and among young nondrinkers, as well as how the imaging results increase understanding of the processes through which LR operates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Alcohol-related blackouts ( ARBs) are reported by ~50% of drinkers. While much is known about the prevalence of ARBs in young adults and their cross-sectional correlates, there are few prospective studies regarding their trajectories over time during mid-adolescence. This paper reports latent trajectory classes of ARBs between age 15 and 19, along with predictors of those patterns. Methods Latent class growth analysis ( LCGA) was used to evaluate the pattern of occurrence of ARBs across 4 time points for 1,402 drinking adolescents from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children ( ALSPAC). Multinomial regression analyses evaluated age-15 demography, substance-related items, externalizing characteristics, and estimated peer substance use as predictors of latent class membership. Results ARBs were reported at age 15 in 30% and at age 19 in 74% of these subjects. Four latent trajectory classes were identified: Class 1 (5.1%) reported no blackouts; for Class 2 (29.5%), ARBs rapidly increased with age; for Class 3 (44.9%), blackouts slowly increased; and for Class 4 (20.5%), ARBs were consistently reported. Using Class 2 (rapid increasers) as the reference, predictors of class membership included female sex, higher drinking quantities, smoking, externalizing characteristics, and estimated peer substance involvement (pseudo R2 = 0.22). Conclusions ARBs were common and repetitive in these young subjects, and predictors of their trajectories over time involved multiple domains representing diverse characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]