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This paper uses multivariate logistic regressions to explore: (1) potential socio-economic, cultural, psychological and political determinants of AIDS conspiracy beliefs among young adults in Cape Town; and (2) whether these beliefs matter for unsafe sex. Membership of a religious organisation reduced the odds of believing AIDS origin conspiracy theories by more than a third, whereas serious psychological distress more than doubled it and belief in witchcraft tripled the odds among Africans. Political factors mattered, but in ways that differed by gender. Tertiary education and relatively high household income reduced the odds of believing AIDS conspiracies for African women (but not men) and trust in President Mbeki's health minister (relative to her successor) increased the odds sevenfold for African men (but not women). Never having heard of the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC), the pro-science activist group that opposed Mbeki on AIDS, tripled the odds of believing AIDS conspiracies for African women (but not men). Controlling for demographic, attitudinal and relationship variables, the odds of using a condom were halved amongst female African AIDS conspiracy believers, whereas for African men, never having heard of TAC and holding AIDS denialist beliefs were the key determinants of unsafe sex.

South Africa's government disability grants are considered important in providing income support to low-income AIDS patients. Indeed, anecdotal evidence suggests that some individuals may opt to compromise their health by foregoing Highly Active Antiretroviral Treatment (HAART) to remain eligible for the grant. In this study, we examined the disability grant's importance to individual and household welfare, and the impact of its loss using a unique longitudinal dataset of HAART patients in Khayelitsha, Cape Town. We found that grant loss was associated with sizeable declines in income and changes in household composition. However, we found no evidence of individuals choosing poor health over grant loss. Our analysis also suggested that though the grants officially target those too sick to work, some people were able to keep grants longer than expected, and others received grants while employed. This has helped cushion people on HAART, but other welfare measures need consideration.

There is an ongoing debate about the relative importance of economic factors (notably poverty) and sexual behavior in driving the AIDS epidemic. This paper draws on relevant research and cross-country regression analysis to argue that the impact of economic determinants is dwarfed by contextual factors within Africa. The regression analysis suggests that controlling for per capita income, calories per capita and the ratio of female to male participation rates (none of which were statistically significant): being a Southern African country increases expected HIV prevalence 8.3 times; being in the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa 3 times; being a predominantly Protestant country 2.5 times; and being a predominantly Muslim country reduces expected HIV prevalence to 62% of the base case. Including the share of income going to the poor did not improve the model and was itself statistically insignificant. The analysis suggests that poverty may play a role in the HIV epidemic in some countries (and may well be a factor affecting the vulnerability of some people to HIV infection in all countries) but that its overall impact is dwarfed by social and behavioral factors.