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Objective Zero risk of linked HIV transmission in serodiscordant couples when the HIV-infected partner had viral load less than 200 copies/ml ('U status') was found in observational studies. We aimed at estimating the proportion of time in which 'U status' was maintained and identifying factors associated with the risk of losing it. Design Observational cohort study. Methods We included participants in the ICONA cohort who had reached an established 'U status' (viral load ≤200 copies/ml for >6 months) as of December 2010. The outcome was the number of person-days of follow-up (PDFU) above a viral load greater than 200 copies/ml, relative to the total number of PDFU observed. A logistic regression model was used to identify factors independently associated with the risk of losing 'U status'. Results Eight thousand, two hundred and forty-one persons living with HIV were included in the analysis who contributed 2 670 888 PDFU. Of these, 1648 (20%) were women, 768 (9%) were people who inject drugs (PWID), and 2066 (25%) were foreign-born. The median of viral load measurements was 9 (IQR: 4-15). Overall, only 3.1% of PDFU were observed when viral load was above 200 copies/ml. The proportion of PDFU with viral load more than 200 copies/ml was higher than average in women (5.3%), unemployed (5.4%), PWID (4.7%), and in people with more than three previous virologic failures (6.3%). These variables were significant predictors of losing 'U status' in the multivariable logistic regression. Conclusion Our results reinforce the validity of the U=U message in real-world setting. However, we identified subsets of our study population at higher risk of losing the 'U status' for whom additional efforts are needed.

Background: There is increasing interest in the role of immune activation and inflammation in HIV disease, but data on direct effects of HIV replication on immune cell activation are limited. Methods: High sensitivity multiplex bead array assays (MBAAs) were used to measure changes in plasma cytokines and chemokines [interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-2, IL-6, IL-7, IL-8, IL-12p70, IL-17, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα), interferon-γ, granulocyte macrophage colony-stimulating factor, IL-4, IL-5, IL-10, IL-13, CXCL10] from randomization (month 0) to month 2 in a random sample of 200 patients from both the drug conservation (DC) and viral suppression (VS) arms of the Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy (SMART) trial. IL-6 was also measured by ELISA. Data were evaluated using nonparametric correlation and censored parametric analysis of covariance and associations were declared as statistically significant when the Bonferroni-adjusted P-value was less than 0.003. Results: Compared with the VS arm, significant increases were seen in the DC arm for TNFα (+0.34 loge pg/ml, P = 0.0001), IL-10 (+0.33 loge pg/ml, P = 0.00001) and CXCL10 (+0.66 loge pg/ml, P = 0.00001). IL-6 ELISA poorly correlated with IL-6 MBAA (Spearman,s rho = 0.29, P = 0.0001). Conclusion: Resumption of HIV replication after ceasing antiretroviral therapy is associated predominantly with an increase of monocyte/macrophage-derived cytokines. Measurement of IL-6 levels may be affected by assay method and this should be considered in future studies of biomarkers.

Objective: To assess the genotypic determinants of the virological response to didanosine (ddI) in HIV-infected patients.Methods: The Forum database on ddI was randomly divided into a derivation set (n=1000) and a validation set (n=453). Linear regression models and bootstrap sampling were used to select resistance mutations and to estimate their resistance scores. Linear regression models, accounted for the censoring of viral load measurements due to assay lower limits, of the week 8 reduction in viral load from baseline were adjusted for baseline viral load, the exact number of weeks between baseline and the week 8 viral load measurements, and the Stanford genotypic sensitivity score.Results: The ddI resistance mutations and their resistance scores based on the derivation set were as follows: M41L (score of 14), T69D (24), D123S (40), T139M (54), I180V (53), M184V (-12), V1891 (55), Q207K (37), L210W (25), and T215Y (eight). The total score is obtained by adding the individual scores. Viruses with scores of 19 or less, 20-59, and 60 or more are considered sensitive, intermediate, and resistant, respectively. In the validation set, respectively, 58.7, 36.9, and 4.4% of viruses were predicted to be sensitive, intermediate, and resistant to ddI. The observed viral load reductions at week 8 were, respectively, 1.51 log(10)copies/ml [interquartile range (IQR) 1.26-1.76] (P=0.0001 versus resistant), 1.11 (0.94-1.30) (P=0.0077 versus sensitive), and 0.46 (0.32-0.74) (P=0.0079 versus intermediate).Conclusion: We developed a genotypic resistance score for didanosine including four mutations never previously used. (C) 2010 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

OBJECTIVE AND DESIGN The present study aims at evaluating the influence of genetic polymorphisms on antiretroviral therapy (ART)-associated lipodystrophy. We included in the study 255 ICoNA. patients and we assessed the distribution of Fas -670 AG polymorphism, ApoC3 -455 CT and -482 CT polymorphisms, C161T silent substitution in the PPAR gamma gene, the Adrenergic beta3 Receptor (ARbeta3) codon 64 TC variant, and two polymorphisms in the Adrenergic beta2 Receptor (ARbeta2) codon 16 AG and codon 27 CG. Crude rates of lipoatrophy and fat accumulation and adjusted relative rates were calculated using Poisson regression. RESULTS In a multivariate model after adjusting for gender, HIV exposure, age, current viral load, hepatitis C virus (HCV) serology, nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) pair/'third drugs' currently used, months of pre-highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) exposures to NRTI, the following genotypes resulted protective against lipoatrophy: ApoC3 -455 CC genotype [adjusted relative risks (ARR) 0.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.046-0.91 vs CT/TT, P = 0.037], ARbeta3 codon 64 TT genotype (ARR 0.39, 95% CI 0.14-1.06 vs TC/CC, P = 0.066), and Fas -670 GG genotype (ARR 0.51, 95% CI 0.26-1.01 vs AG/AA, P = 0.053). With regard to fat accumulation, in the multivariate model, the ARbeta2 codon 27 CC genotype resulted protective (ARR 0.21, 95% CI 0.08-0.51 vs CG/GG, P = 0.0006), whereas the ARbeta2 codon 16 AA genotype resulted associated with higher risk (ARR 3.72, 95% CI 1.58-8.76 vs AG/GG, P = 0.0026). CONCLUSION Our study suggests that genetic polymorphisms of genes involved in apoptosis and adipocyte metabolism are significantly related to ART associated lipodystrophy. Particularly, we evidenced a role for ApoC3 -455 in lipoatrophy and for the two variants of ARbeta2 in fat accumulation.

Objective: To investigate the impact of 215 HIV-1 revertants on the risk of virological failure of the first thymidine analog-containing highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).Design: The study included 491 HIV-1 subjects of the Italian Cohort Naive for Anti retrovirals, 405 of whom received a genotypic assay before therapy and had a virological follow-up.Methods: Pre-treatment genotypic resistance was assessed by sequencing of the whole protease (PR) and reverse transcriptase (RT) region.Results: Three (3.2%) and 13 (3.3%) individuals with recent (n = 95) and chronic (n = 396) HIV-1 infection carried an HIV-1 strain with 215 revertants (215D/C/E/A/V), respectively. In contrast, nucleoside associated mutations were higher in the former (15.8%) compared with the latter group (6.8%) (P = 0.005). A multivariable regression model, considering pre-HAART viral load levels, use of saquinavir-hard gel as the only PI, use of zidovudine, number of other RT and PR mutations, indicated that patients carrying 215 revertants had an increased risk of virological failure compared with those not carrying such mutants (adjusted relative hazard = 2.97 95% confidence interval, 1.11-7.94, P = 0.03). Among patients with 215 revertants, who experienced virological failure, four out of seven showed the emergence of the 215Y resistant mutation. The probability of 215Y occurrence was different between patients carrying 215 revertants compared with those who did not carried these mutants (P = 0.006).Conclusions: HIV-1 215 revertants with an increased ability for selecting 215Y mutation are associated with a higher risk of virological failure and may lead to the appearance of virus carrying 215Y/F mutation in vivo. These findings suggest that 215 revertant viruses may compromise the efficacy of the first thymidine analog-containing regimen. (C) 2004 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.

Background: Subpopulations of HIV with mutations associated with resistance to antiretroviral drugs often have reduced replicative capacity, so virus with resistance mutations for all existing and new antiretroviral drugs is likely to be appreciably impaired. Issues of toxicity, quality of life and economics mean that the simultaneous use of all these drugs in combination is unrealistic. We aimed to explore the use of sequential monotherapy regimens using a mathematical model of quasi-species dynamics, to see if these could take advantage of the poor replicative capacity of highly resistant virus.Methods: We assume for each of seven drugs that a single mutation is associated with the ability to replicate (effective reproductive ratio, R>1) in the presence of that drug as monotherapy. Parameters included were drug efficacy, the cost of resistance mutations and the number of new target cells arising daily.Results: The use of seven drugs in a daily/weekly sequential monotherapy cycle led to substantial viral suppression (in the presence of all resistant viral subpopulations) for a wider range of parameter values than a continuous five-drug regimen. Although on any one day/week there is a viral subpopulation with R>1 (e.g. that with resistance only to the current drug), this subpopulation does not have time to grow sufficiently during the short period when that drug is being taken.Conclusion: These results provide a rationale for trials of sequential regimens, using as wide a number of drugs with different resistance-associated mutations as possible, as a potential 'resistance-proof' strategy for achieving significant viral load suppression. (C) 2003 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.

Objective: To assess the prevalence of mutations in the reverse-transcriptase (RT) and protease (PR) region in a cohort of chronically-infected HIV-positive patients requiring highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods: The study included 347 patients enrolled in the Italian Cohort of Antiretroviral Naive patients (I.CO.NA) who had to initiate HAART. The whole PR-region, and aminoacids 1-320 of RT-region were sequenced from plasma samples at baseline. Results: Median CD4-lymphocytes and HIV-RNA at baseline were 231 × 10 6 cells/l and 4.89 log 10 copies/ml; 307 of 347 (88.5%) patients carried no mutations in the RT region, whereas 40 (11.5%) carried one or more mutations associated with resistance to nucleoside-RT inhibitor (NRTI) (7.8%), or non-nucleoside-RTI (NNRTI) (4.9%), with four patients carrying mutations to both classes. Among mutations associated with high-level resistance to RTI, T215Y was found in only two patients, M184V in two cases, T69D and T215C in other two cases (one each), and K103N in only one patient, for a total of six patients (one carrying both T215Y and M184V) (1.7%). Seventy-six patients (21.9%) carried no mutations in the PR region, whereas 271 (78.1%) had one or more mutations. Primary mutations associated with substantial resistance to protease inhibitors were found in only five of 347 patients (1.4%) (M46V/L, 154V, V82A/l); all the other patients carried only secondary mutations (L10F/I/V, M36I, L63P, A71T/V, V77I). Conclusions: Prevalence of mutations associated with high-level resistance to antiretroviral drugs is low in HIV-infected patients with long-term infection. This suggests no preclusion in principle to any antiretroviral drug at the time of decision of the first therapeutic regimen.

Background Relatively little is known about the long-term durability of viral suppression in individuals initially achieving a viral load of less than 50 copies/ml within 24 weeks of starting antiretroviral therapy, nor the extent to which therapy interruption accounts for the loss of suppression. Methods We intensely followed all 336 antiretroviral-naive patients attending the Goethe Universitat Clinic who began multi-drug combination regimens and in whom a viral load of less than 50 copies/ml was achieved within 24 weeks, in order to assess the risk of viral load rebound. Inspection of case notes allowed the distinction of viral rebound according to whether there was an associated complete interruption of therapy. Results A total of 61 patients experienced viral rebound during 543.1 person-years of follow-up, giving a 25.3% risk of rebound by 3.3 years from first achieving viral suppression. However, for 47 of the patients with viral rebound there was an associated documented complete interruption of antiretroviral therapy, mostly as a result of co-morbidities, leaving 14 who appear to represent a failure of the virological efficacy of therapy (viral breakthrough; 5.2% risk by 3.3 years). The risk of viral breakthrough declined with the increased duration of suppression (P = 0.01). Conclusion The intrinsic virological effectiveness of multi-drug antiretroviral therapy in previously drug-naive individuals appears to be such that viral suppression, once achieved, can be maintained for several years in patients not interrupting therapy. The major challenge is to develop regimens that can be taken consistently and safely for such long periods of time.

To describe the reasons for, and factors associated with, modification and discontinuation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) regimens at a single clinic.A total of 556 patients who started HAART at the Royal Free Hospital were included in analyses. Modification was defined as stopping or switching any antiretrovirals in the regimen, whereas discontinuation was defined as the simultaneous stopping of all antiretrovirals included in the initial regimen. Reasons were classified as immunological/virological failure (IVF) and toxicities and patient choice/poor compliance (TPC).The median CD4 count at starting HAART was 171 x 10(6) cells/l and viral load 5.07 log copies/ml. During a median follow-up of 14.2 months, 247 patients (44.4%) modified their HAART regimen, 72 due to IVF (29.1%) and 159 due to TPC (64.4%) and a total of 148 patients (26.6%) discontinued HAART. Older patients were less likely to modify HAART [relative hazard (RH), 0.73 per 10 years; P = 0.0008], as were previously treatment-naive patients (RH, 0.65; P = 0.0050), those in a clinical trial (RH, 0.64; P = 0.027) and those who started nelfinavir (RH, 0.57; P = 0.035). Patients who started with four or more drugs (RH, 2.21, P0.0001), who included ritonavir in the initial regimen (RH, 1.41; P = 0.035) or who had higher viral loads during follow-up (RH per log increase, 1.51; P0.0001) were more likely to modify HAART.There was a high rate of modification and discontinuation of HAART regimens in the first 12 months, particularly due to toxicities, patient choice or poor compliance.

Objectives: To describe the viral response to HAART by weeks 4 and 8 in previously antiretroviral-naive patients. To assess whether the weeks 4 or 8 viral loads are useful predictors of viral suppression by week 24.Design: A large clinical database including 453 antiretroviral-naive patients whose plasma viral load was monitored every 4 weeks.Methods: Observed probabilities of achieving a viral load less than or equal to 500 copies/ml by week 24 (days 84-168) from starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) were calculated according to viral loads at weeks 4 and 8.Results: A total of 42.4% of patients (153/361) reached less than or equal to 500 copies/ml viral load by week 4 and 70.4% (245/348) by week 8. Viral suppression below 500 copies/ml by 4-8 weeks was similar irrespective of the pre-HAART viral load. In patients with viral loads above 10 000 copies/ml at week 4, 60.6% (20/33) achieved less than or equal to 500 copies/ml by week 24. In patients with viral toads still above 10 000 copies/ml at week 8, only 42.3% (11/26) achieved less than or equal to 500 copies/ml by week 24, and only 33.3% (3/9) maintained viral suppression below 500 copies/ml to week 48.Conclusion: Viral loads at weeks 4 and 8 should be monitored to detect early signs of low subsequent viral suppression. For previously antiretroviral-naive patients whose viral loads after 8 weeks of HAART are still above 10 000, there is an urgent need to assess adherence to therapy, drug levels and resistance, so management can be modified accordingly to reduce the rate of week 24 virological failure. (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Objective: To evaluate the frequency of discontinuation of the first highly active antiretroviral regimen (HAART) and the factors predictive of discontinuing for toxicity and failure in a population-based cohort of HIV-positive individuals in Italy, naive from antiretrovirals at enrolment.Methods: The study population consisted of individuals who initiated HAART and had at least one follow-up visit. The primary end-points were discontinuation of any component of HAART for drug toxicity and discontinuation for failure. Survival analyses were performed to identify predictive factors for reaching the two end points.Results: Eight hundred and sixty-two individuals initialed HAART; in 727 of them (84.3%) this consisted of two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) and one protease inhibitor (PI). Over a median follow-up of 45 weeks, 312 patients (36.2%) discontinued therapy: 182 (21.1%) discontinued due to toxicity, 44 (5.1%) due to failure. The probability of discontinuing HAART at 1 year was 25.5% [95% confidence interval (Cl), 21.9-28.9] due to toxicity and 7.6% (95% Cl, 4.9-10.3) due to failure. Independent factors associated with discontinuation for toxicity were: gender [relative hazard (RH) = 0.51; 95% Cl, 0.32-0.80 for men versus women], type of treatment (indinavir-containing regimens, RH = 1.94; 95% Cl, 1.10-3.41 and ritonavir-containing regimens, RH = 3.83; 95% Cl, 2.09-7.03 versus hard-gell saquinavir) and time spent on treatment (RH = 0.89; 95% Cl, 0.80-0.98 for each additional month). Discontinuation due to failure was independently associated with the most recent HIV-RNA (RH = 3.20; 959/0 Cl, 1.74-5.88 for log(10) copies/ml higher), and with type of treatment (indinavir-containing regimens, RH = 0.21; 95% Cl, 0.06-0.78 and ritonavir-containing regimens, RH = 0.23; 95% Cl, 0.04-1.26 Versus hard-gell saquinavir).Conclusions: If the current HAART regimen caused no toxicity, less than 10% of naive patients discontinue their first HAART regimen because of failure after 1 year from starting therapy. (C) 2000 Lippincatt Williams & Wilkins.

OBJECTIVE To describe the changes over time in incidence of hospital admissions among patients with HIV, reasons for hospital admission, duration of stay, relationship with CD4 T-cell count and with antiretroviral treatment. METHODS The incidence of hospital admissions during each calendar year from 1988 to 1997 inclusive was calculated using a person-years analysis. In addition the proportion of patient follow-up spent in hospital and the impact of changing treatment regimens among all patients with HIV aged > or = 14 years and with at least one CD4 T-cell count seen at the Royal Free Hospital, London was also described. RESULTS A total of 1806 patients were investigated with median follow-up of 21.1 months. Among all patients, the proportion of follow-up time spent as an in-patient decreased from 3.9% in 1988 to 1.3% in 1997 (P = 0.0015; test for trend). Hospital admissions for any cause peaked during 1989 at 72.0 per 100 patient years of follow-up (PYFU) and was 28.5 per 100 PYFU during 1997 (P 30% before 1990 to < 5% during 1997 (P = 0.026; test for trend). Hospital admissions varied greatly according to treatment regimen; in 1996 and 1997 just 0.1% of follow-up time of patients on triple antiretroviral treatment regimens was spent as a hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS Admissions to hospital began falling before the introduction of combination therapy and declined strikingly during 1996 and 1997 following the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. These results have important implications for future allocation of resources and for patient management.

Objectives: To illustrate a simple approach to adjusting for bias due to drop-outs (i.e., attrition bias) when evaluating the effect of a certain therapy in HIV clinical trials using the mean change in plasma viral load. To evaluate its validity and to compare its performance with that of another simple method for handling dropouts: the last observation carried forward (LOCF) method.Design: Data from a notional treated group of 100 patients followed up to 52 weeks were generated. Attrition bias was introduced by mimicking selective patient dropout (i.e., more likely in patients doing badly).Methods: The difference between the true mean change in HIV RNA levels at 52 weeks and the observed mean change because of drop-outs was calculated (attrition bias). The reduction in bias obtained by using the proposed approach was then calculated and compared with that obtained by using the LOCF method. To assess the performance of the methods over the entire follow-up, the mean areas under the curves were considered.Results: Our method reduced the bias by a clinically relevant amount in a variety of different settings. In most of our simulations, bias was reduced by a larger amount than that obtainable from using the LOCF method.Conclusions: The current situation is that results from trials in HIV infection are invariably presented with no associated attempt to quantify the attrition bias present. Attrition-adjusted plots of mean change in HIV RNA should, we believe, be presented alongside usual plots as a form of sensitivity analysis. (C) 1998 Lippincott-Raven Publishers.

Objectives : Body weight is regulated by the balance between energy intake and energy expenditure, but the influence of HIV infection on energy balance has not been fully examined. The main objectives of this study were (1) to assess the effect of HIV on energy balance, (2) to examine the relationship of parameters of immunodeficiency to energy balance, and (3) to examine the interrelationship of different components of energy balance in asymptomatic HIV-seropositive men. Design : A cross-sectional study of nutrition and metabolism in asymptomatic HIV-seropositive men. Methods : Components of energy balance were examined in 104 asymptomatic HIV-seropositive men (CD4 count 4-482x10 6 /l) and 57 age-matched HIV-seronegative male controls. Energy and protein intake were measured using 5-day diaries, and small bowel absorption and permeability was assessed using four sugar probes. Resting energy expenditure was calculated from indirect calorimetry and nitrogen loss estimated from 24 h urine collection. Four methods were used to assess the effect of HIV infection on body composition (anthropometry, dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, bioelectrical impedance and 24 h urine creatinine). Results : Resting energy expenditure per kilogram of fat-free mass was raised (P< 0.0001), fat mass was decreased (P= 0.001), fat-free mass was increased (P = 0.05), energy intake was higher (P = 0.05), absorption of L-rhamnose (P = 0.01) and 3-O-methyl-D-glucose was decreased (P = 0.003), and small bowel permeability was increased (P < 0.0001) in HIV-seropositive men compared with HIV-seronegative controls. HIV-seropositive subjects with a CD4 count less than 100x10 6 /l had decreased absorption of L-rhamnose (P < 0.05), D-xylose (P < 0.05) and 3-O-methyl-D-glucose (P < 0.05) compared with HIV-seropositive subjects at higher CD4 counts, and had a similar resting energy expenditure to HIV-seronegative controls. Protein intake, carbohydrate, fat and protein oxidation, 24 h nitrogen excretion and appendicular muscle mass were similar in HIV-seropositive men and controls. Conclusion : HIV infection exerts a direct effect on parameters of energy balance that varies with the severity of immunosuppression.