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Advancing models for accurate estimation of food production is essential for policymaking and managing national plans of action for food security. This research proposes two machine learning models for the prediction of food production. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) methods are used to advance the prediction models. In the present study, two variables of livestock production and agricultural production were considered as the source of food production. Three variables were used to evaluate livestock production, namely livestock yield, live animals, and animal slaughtered, and two variables were used to assess agricultural production, namely agricultural production yields and losses. Iran was selected as the case study of the current study. Therefore, time-series data related to livestock and agricultural productions in Iran from 1961 to 2017 have been collected from the FAOSTAT database. First, 70% of this data was used to train ANFIS and MLP, and the remaining 30% of the data was used to test the models. The results disclosed that the ANFIS model with generalized bell-shaped (Gbell) built-in membership functions has the lowest error level in predicting food production. The findings of this study provide a suitable tool for policymakers who can use this model and predict the future of food production to provide a proper plan for the future of food security and food supply for the next generations.

An evaluation of research studies is considered an important task to make future adjustments for securing and adjusting policies. This article presents the results of a study that explored the research that has been published with food security, price volatility, and price transmission as keywords. The study involved a bibliometric evaluation of statistical outcomes from 899 scientific publications from 1979 to June 2020 related to the subject, registered in the Web of Science database. The collected articles were used to measure bibliometric indicators and evaluate the research work on food security and agricultural products’ price movement. An analysis of the development and the identification of the related topics of greatest interest on this subject was also carried out. The analysis results found that a rising number of studies have been registered over the years, emphasizing the following keywords: food security, climate change, agriculture, health, nutrition, consumption, and income. The analysis proves that the shift in scientific research trends associated with food security analysis is linked with health and food nutrition status. Furthermore, the word "impact" was significantly present in the analyzed papers, which reveals that econometric analysis should address the relationship between price movement and nutrient intake to achieve nutritional security.

This paper addresses the assessment of the price transmission of dairy products in Hungary. Monthly prices are used in testing the hypothesis of asymmetric price transmission between farmers and retailers. The magnitude of short- and long-run asymmetric transmission between price levels is measured through a nonlinear autoregressive distributed model (NARDL). The cointegration of variables is validated through bounds test of the NARDL model. The estimated NARDL model proves the existence of long- and short-run asymmetric relationships between producer milk price and most retailer dairy product prices. Furthermore, the model confirms the presence of a significantly positive long-run price asymmetry for butter, buttercream, sour cream, and Trappista cheese. The positive long-run price transmission asymmetry results could be explained by the strong market power of milk processors, which are granted through their concentrations and the absence of competitiveness in the market. The short-run asymmetry of price transmission could be explained by implementing some policy interventions, such as the milk quotas, which limit milk production. Analyzing the asymmetric relationship between the producer milk price and the retailer dairy product prices could give a clear vision of the dairy sector and how prices move between market actors, highlighting the retailers’ purchasing power feature, and its role in determining the market price interaction.