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Abstract: We present an integrated methodology composed of a role-playing game on land adjudication from which we extract narrative and spatially explicit drivers of land-use decisions. We show how geographic information systems (GIS), qualitative decision-matrix analyses, a simple rule-based model using multi-criteria evaluations (MCE), and a machine learning-based land-transformation model (LTM) can be used harmoniously to study complex socio-ecological systems. We evaluate how each technique performs in the study of complex socio-ecological systems using a multi-tier framework detailing how each method analyzes the resource system, resource units, governance system, users and interactions and outcomes in the system. We show that each approach enhances our understanding of the land-use decision making process. Each method provides various information on the drivers of land-use decision, some focusing more on spatial components of socio-ecological systems (resource system and resource unit) and other having a strong emphasis on social mechanisms (governance system, users, interactions and outcomes). Furthermore, we shed light into the existence of a flow of information between the various methods enhancing our understanding of land-use drivers. We end with a discussion on methodological tradeoffs between models and the value of our more holistic approach to modeling land-use drivers and decisions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The sustainability of the ongoing national Campaign-Based Watershed Management (CBWM) program in Ethiopia is questionable due to poor planning and implementation practices. This study analyzes farmers' decision-making in the CBWM program, and mutual learning and collective decisions among local actors in Boset District - Ethiopia. Role-Playing Game (RPG) was the main method of the study. In order to collect pertinent information during the game sessions, observation of farmers' behavior and group discussions were used. Descriptive statistics and qualitative analysis were employed to analyze game outputs. Results show that farmers prefer to collectively work on private farmlands rather than on communal land. Furthermore, participation of farmers in campaign works was higher under a default-scenario (with control instruments), than under a willingness-scenario (without control instruments). In making decisions on their level of participation in campaign works, farmers followed the decisions of a fellow farmer they considered more knowledgeable. However, the participation of farmers in the maintenance of Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) structures was more or less the same under both scenarios. Both farmers' level of participation in campaign works and maintenance decisions were influenced by their proximity to the CBWM intervention areas (i.e. micro-watersheds) as well as their awareness and motivation. The commitment of local government actors was also crucial to enforce and encourage the farmers to participate in the program. Based on farmers' decisions in the RPG, none of the two scenarios simultaneously enhance the total land area covered with SWC structures and income of farmers. An important benefit of this game was that it stimulated mutual learning and collective decisions on micro-watersheds to be treated and alternative management strategies for the CBWM program. This revealed that there is a need to (1) motivate farmers through capacity building, (2) enhance the commitment of local government actors, and (3) introduce participatory planning to enhance mutual learning and collective decisions for sustainable watershed management. While directly applicable to the study area, these recommendations and the RPG (as a toolkit) are essential to enhance the outcomes and sustainability of collective watershed management initiatives in other parts of the world. [Display omitted] • Sustainability of the national Campaign-Based Watershed Management Program in Ethiopia is questionable. • Analyzing farmers' decision-making and collective decisions among actors is crucial for sustainable watershed management. • Farmers' decision-making, mutual learning on limitations of the program and collective decisions on strategies were explored. • Capacity building of actors and introducing bottom-up planning are essential to enhance the sustainability of the program. • The Role-playing Game and the above recommendations are crucial to foster sustainable collective watershed management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]