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A database of journal articles and conference papers that cover the economics of agricultural development in Africa during the period 2016–2020 was compiled. These papers are first described in terms of demographic and bibliometric criteria, followed by a network analysis of the main centers of origin and of influence of this research. Finally, three different processes were used to test the policy relevance of the work. These include a simple enumeration of the policy recommendations in a sample of the papers, a megatrend analysis, and a comparison of their focus with the standard narrative of the role of agriculture in economic development. The results show that a large proportion of the literature is not forward‐looking, and is weak on policy relevance. We ignore a number of issues that engage the attention of those concerned with implementing structural change in agriculture across the many very different but very real natural resource, political, social, economic, and technological environments around the continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article briefly introduces a special section on the structural transformation of African agriculture and rural spaces. The five papers that comprise this special section all draw on household-level microdata to explore important aspects of the salient changes taking place in the world's most agrarian and poorest continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sub‐Saharan Africa faces low agricultural productivity amid a confluence of trends that include rapid population growth, climate change, and the rise of the middle class. To raise productivity, governments—in partnership with donors and development organizations—have launched numerous initiatives to encourage the development of sustainable and competitive agricultural input markets. Despite these efforts, markets remain underdeveloped in most countries and access to affordable seeds and fertilizers remains a major challenge for smallholder farmers. This paper explores evidence from recent multicountry analyses of input delivery systems to assess the possibility of a Green Revolution in Africa. It describes use and adoption levels, challenges, policy and regulatory issues, and investments needed to expand smallholder access to these productivity‐enhancing agricultural technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper surveys the linkages between malaria and agriculture, focusing on the economic impacts of the disease. We adopt Negin's (2005) conceptual framework to examine the potential impacts of malaria in the agricultural sector, including both direct and indirect impacts. In addition to health care costs, malaria causes loss of agricultural labor and slows adoption of improved practices in agriculture. Furthermore, some agricultural practices and development interventions are known to facilitate the spread of malaria, exacerbating its impacts. Given the importance of both agriculture and malaria in developing countries, especially in Africa, the interaction between them could be a significant factor in economic growth. The review identifies gaps in past research on this topic. A better understanding of malaria's impact on agricultural productivity, coupled with efforts to strengthen capacity to deal with malaria, would enhance policies and programs aimed at combating malaria and curbing its impacts on agricultural productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: New crop varieties often have been promoted in developing countries based upon superior yield vis-a-vis locally available varieties. This research presents a hedonic price model for upland rice by drawing upon the input characteristics and consumer good characteristics model literature. Model specification tests determine that a combination of production and consumption characteristics best explains the willingness to pay for new upland rice varieties. The household model specification determined that five traits explain the willingness to pay for new rice varieties: plant cycle length, plant height, grain colour, elongation/swelling and tenderness. Yield was not a significant explanatory variable of the willingness to pay for seed. The implications of this model are two-fold. First, varietal development and promotion must include post-harvest characteristics in addition to production traits when determining which varieties to promote for official release. Secondly, non-yield production characteristics such as plant height and cycle length are significant factors in producer''s assessments of the value of a new variety. Overall, this paper provides an alternative explanation for limited adoption of modern upland rice varieties in West Africa: varietal evaluation programs have focused too narrowly on yield evaluation and have not promoted varieties with superior non-yield characteristics than locally available varieties. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Increasing population pressure and population density in many African countries are inducing land scarcity and land constraints. Tightening land constraints are expected to trigger various responses, including agricultural intensification, as postulated by the Boserup hypothesis. The relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in irrigated agriculture, and in contexts where application of improved inputs is high, remains largely unexplored. Furthermore, while much of the debate on the topic in Africa has focused on how to boost agricultural intensification, there is scant evidence on whether evolving agricultural intensification practices in some parts of Africa are sustainable. In this article, we investigate the implication of land size (at the plot and farm level) on agricultural intensification. Our analysis sheds light on the relevance of the Boserup hypothesis in the context of Egypt, where irrigation dominates agriculture and input application rates are high relative to global standards. We also examine whether evolving agricultural intensification practices induced by land scarcity are agronomically appropriate. Our findings show that smaller plot and farm sizes are associated with higher application of agricultural inputs, mainly nitrogen fertilizers. Importantly, small plot size is associated with overapplication of nitrogen fertilizer relative to crop‐specific agronomic recommendations. In addition, smaller plots are associated with higher rates of labor application and lower rates of mechanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diversification is a common livelihood strategy for rural households in developing countries, with diversification being either a choice or necessity depending on individual household contexts. Using two waves of data (from 2009 and 2011) for 1773 households from eight countries in sub‐Saharan Africa, we examined livelihood diversification and its drivers. We examined livelihood diversification by considering household involvement in three livelihood activities: crop, livestock, and non‐farm. Results indicated that 40% of households conducted all three livelihood activities, but there was heterogeneity in diversity levels. We used a correlated random effects model to identify the factors that pushed or pulled households to diversify their activities. Access to non‐agricultural credit was positively associated with livelihood diversity as it can catalyze involvement in non‐farm activities. Drought had a negative effect on livelihood diversity. Area of crop land had a positive effect on the number of livelihood activities conducted. We found that 53% of households added or removed at least one livelihood activity between 2009 and 2011, and the addition of non‐farm activities was the most common change. Our results demonstrated the dynamic nature of livelihoods and importance of shocks (such as drought) and resource endowments (land) in understanding household livelihood diversification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study household consumption of various categories of processed food, including ultra‐processed food and meals away from home in Tanzania. We compare peri‐urban versus hinterland rural areas, and large cities versus small towns. Three sets of findings stand out. (1) Contrary to the common view in Africa that processed food is mainly an urban middle‐class phenomenon, we found it has penetrated the diets of the rural areas and the rural and urban poor. In rural areas, surprisingly 60% of food consumption comes from purchases in value terms, and processed food accounts for 76% of purchases and 47% of all food consumed. For the rural poor, purchased processed food is 38% of food consumption. In urban areas processed food's share of purchases (hence consumption) is 78%, similar for the rich and poor. (2) We found that ultra‐processed food (such as sugar‐sweetened beverages and cookies) and meals‐away‐from‐home (MAFH) have emerged as important in urban as well as rural areas. As these foods tend to be high in oil, salt, and sugar, this is a health concern. The share of ultra‐processed foods and MAFH is 21% in rural areas and 36% in cities albeit twice as high in large cities compared with small towns and among richer compared to poorer consumers. (3) Our regressions show the spread of processed food consumption in rural and urban areas, among the rich and poor, is driven mainly by opportunity costs of the time of women and men, and thus the pursuit of saving home‐processing and cooking time, as well as food environment factors. As these drivers are long term trends this suggests processed food consumption will continue to grow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current global food crisis has reemphasized the costliness of Africa's failure to achieve food security and poverty reduction. The instrument by which other more successful developing countries achieved these outcomes was a “Green Revolution” in agriculture. While previous research has provided largely discursive appraisals of the viability of an African Green Revolution, this article adopts a more rigorous methodology to address that question. First, an economy-wide multimarket model, augmented with existing poverty–growth elasticities, is developed to assess the likely impacts of a rapid acceleration in food production (of the kind witnessed in previous Green Revolutions) on food prices, consumption and demand, farmer revenue, and poverty. Our results suggest that a rapid growth in staple production, together with more integrated regional markets, would reduce food prices by roughly 20–40% for consumers and 10–20% for producers among the major crops. This translates into a large rise in farm revenues, annual agricultural growth rates of 6.5% or higher, broader income growth and food security, and over 70 million Africans being lifted out of poverty. The article concludes by emphasizing the kinds of fundamental policy actions and resources that would be required for achieving these outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Erosion of trade preferences currently being enjoyed by the least developed countries (LDCs) and some developing countries remains an important area in the ongoing trade negotiations. The different positions regarding the preference erosion question besides being informed by political economy considerations are also founded on empirical results of this particular question. But does the methodology used for the empirical analysis matter? In this article, the importance of preference erosion due to MFN liberalization on agriculture is analyzed. Drawing from the potential complementary strengths in triangulation, the article uses both partial and general equilibrium analyses. The article shows that the ranking of preference erosion as an issue of policy concern is influenced by the empirical methodology adopted. However, irrespective of the rank, the article concludes that preference erosion is an important issue not only in terms of welfare, but also as it has impacts on incomes for preference-receiving countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents information on several conferences and workshops held in 2003. The Learning Workshop 1 titled Analytical and Empirical Tools for Poverty Research was held on August 16. In another workshop held the same day, the topic Food Security Measurement in a Developing World Context With a Focus on Africa, was discussed. A round table chaired by Doug Merrey and Madar Samad was held to discuss Resource Accounting and Country Institutional Experience: Regional Plans for Africa. The session titled Water Policy and Agricultural Production at Global and River Basin Levels, was held on August 18.

This article explores the useful distinction between chronic and transitory poverty in understanding rural welfare dynamics, highlighting the possibility of poverty traps and their implications for“cargo net” policies to build up productive assets and“safety net” policies to protect such assets. We discuss the methodological difficulties in identifying and explaining either poverty traps or the critical thresholds that are their defining feature. A few empirical examples from sub-Saharan Africa illustrate the likely existence of poverty traps that help to explain chronic rural poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid expansion of agrifood exports from low‐ and middle‐income countries and the contribution of global value chains to rural development are well‐documented in the literature. Also, studies on modernization of domestic food value chains in these countries are emerging. Yet, the linkages between global and local value chains are rarely studied. On the one hand, the development and expansion of global value chains may create competition with local value chains for land, labor, water, soil nutrients, and other resources. On the other hand, positive spillover effects, such as investment, technical or institutional spillovers, may occur and spur the development of local value chains. In this article, we put forward a conceptual discussion on the type of linkages between global and local value chains, and how these depend on crop and value chain characteristics. We review the empirical evidence on these linkages. Our focus is on Africa, where agrifood exports and global value chains evolved rapidly and where challenges remain to upgrade and increase efficiency in local food value chains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Using plot level panel data and multinomial endogenous switching regression, this article analyzes the adoption and welfare impacts of multiple agricultural technologies in eastern Zambia. We adapt a multinomial endogenous switching/treatment effect regression framework to correct for selection bias and endogeneity originating from both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. Results indicate that joint adoption of multiple agricultural technologies had greater impacts on crop yields, household incomes, and poverty than the adoption of individual components of the technology package. Our findings suggest that efforts aimed at raising household incomes and reducing poverty should focus on promoting the adoption of multiple agricultural technologies through provision of improved support services such as extension and input supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Industrial mining generally develops in rural areas where agriculture is the main subsistence activity of the population. However, there seems to be an incompatible coexistence between agricultural and mining activities, as both require a large amount of land. Given the extensive agricultural system in Burkina Faso and the expansion of mining since 2007, this study analyzed the effect of industrial mining land use on poverty in the 13 regions of Burkina Faso. The study examined the effect of mining land use intensity on cereal production/yield before exploring its impact on poverty by using several econometric methods and various data from the National Statistics Institute. The results indicate that mining land use intensity had no direct effect on poverty; instead, the effect is indirect. Indeed, mining land use intensity negatively affects cereal yield, and that reinforces the incidence of poverty in mining regions. Moreover, the results show that cereal production increases with cropped land. As cereal yield decreases with industrial mining land use intensity, this suggests that the expansion of mining would contribute to the jeopardizing of the food supply as well as the exacerbation of poverty in mining regions. Therefore, policies are needed to encourage the sustainable management of land and mining revenue redistribution in the mining regions of Burkina Faso. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely recognized that an 'African green revolution' will require greater use of inorganic fertilizers. Often-made comparisons note that fertilizer use rates in Africa are just 10-20% of those in Asia, Europe and the Americas. Most attempts to explain relatively low-adoption of fertilizer assume yield responses to inorganic fertilization warrant higher application rates and hypothesize that observed use rates are limited by market-based factors. Another explanation may be that application rates are low because African yields are less responsive to inorganic fertilizer than yields in other regions, and less responsive than analysts perceive. Examining the case of Zambia, we evaluate whether yield response to fertilizers could explain adoption and application rates. A model of yield response is constructed and a combination of estimators is employed to mitigate potential biases related to correlation between fertilizer use and unobserved heterogeneity as well as stochastic shocks. Results indicate higher fertilization rates would be marginally profitable or unprofitable in many cases given commercial fertilizer and maize prices. Phosphoric fertilizer is particularly unprofitable on acidic soils, which are common in Zambia and other areas of sub-Saharan Africa. We propose feasible recommendations for diversifying the current government strategy to enhance crop productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses changes over the past decade in the farm size distributions of Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zambia, drawing on two or more waves of nationally representative population-based and/or area-based surveys. Analysis indicates that much of Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing major changes in farm land ownership patterns. Among all farms below 100 hectares in size, the share of land on small-scale holdings under five hectares has declined except in Kenya. Medium-scale farms (defined here as farm holdings between 5 and 100 hectares) account for a rising share of total farmland, especially in the 10-100 hectare range where the number of these farms is growing especially rapidly. Medium-scale farms control roughly 20% of total farmland in Kenya, 32% in Ghana, 39% in Tanzania, and over 50% in Zambia. The numbers of such farms are also growing very rapidly, except in Kenya. We also conducted detailed life history surveys of medium-scale farmers in each of these four countries and found that the rapid rise of medium-scale holdings in most cases reflects increased interest in land by urban-based professionals or influential rural people. About half of these farmers obtained their land later in life, financed by nonfarm income. The rise of medium-scale farms is affecting the region in diverse ways that are difficult to generalize. Many such farms are a source of dynamism, technical change, and commercialization of African agriculture. However, medium-scale land acquisitions may exacerbate land scarcity in rural areas and constrain the rate of growth in the number of small-scale farm holdings. Medium-scale farmers tend to dominate farm lobby groups and influence agricultural policies and public expenditures to agriculture in their favor. Nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from six countries (Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia) show that urban households own 5-35% of total agricultural land and that this share is rising in all countries where DHS surveys were repeated. This suggests a new and hitherto unrecognized channel by which medium-scale farmers may be altering the strength and location of agricultural growth and employment multipliers between rural and urban areas. Given current trends, medium-scale farms are likely to soon become the dominant scale of farming in many African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study measures the economic impact of the first phase of the Cocoa Livelihood Program (CLP-I), a current World Cocoa Foundation (WCF) project, sponsored by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and aimed at improving the livelihood of over 200,000 small cocoa producers in sub-Saharan Africa via training, crop diversification, and farmer-based organizations. Using data collected from 2,048 pre- and post-CLP-I interviews of cocoa producers in Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, and Cameroon, the results show that yield enhancements attributable to CLP-I are 32%, 34%, 50%, and 62% in Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, and Cameroon, respectively. Using a total program cost of $151-$200 per beneficiary and estimated annual benefits of $109-$322 per beneficiary over 25 years, the benefit-cost ratios are estimated to range from $18 to $62 for every dollar spent on human capital development. These results suggest the WCF should endeavor to increase the number of farmers who receive all, not some, of the components of the program. This would not only help ensure that each producer obtains as much human capital as possible from each of the training programs but increases the probability of reaching the CLP goal of doubling the income of cocoa-growing households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is widespread consensus that agricultural technology has an important role to play for poverty reduction and sustainable development. There is no consensus, however, about the types of technologies that are best suited for smallholder farmers in Africa. While some consider natural resource management (NRM) technologies as most appropriate, others propagate input intensification with a stronger role of the private sector. In the public debate, these two strategies are often perceived as incompatible. Environmental non-governmental organizations in particular consider low-external input strategies as the only sustainable form of agriculture, a view that has considerable influence on policymakers and the international donor community. Most existing research studies on smallholder innovation focus on the adoption of individual technologies, so that comparisons between different types of technologies in the same context are not easily possible. We use representative data from maize-producing households in Kenya and a multivariate probit model to analyze the adoption of different types of technologies simultaneously. Results indicate that NRM technologies and strategies that build on external inputs are not incompatible. Interesting complementarities exist, which are not yet sufficiently exploited because many organizations promote either one type of technology or the other, but rarely a combination of both. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lack of clarity behind measurement and interpretation of statistics on gender and land leads to an inability to clearly articulate a policy response to the potential inequalities faced by women and men. This article sets out to explore, conceptually and empirically, the levels and relative inequalities in land rights between women and men in African countries. The first section of the article engages in a conceptual discussion of how to measure gendered-land outcomes, what ownership and control mean in different contexts, and why attention to these factors is important for the development of gender and land statistics. The second section of the article systematically reviews existing evidence from microlevel large sample studies to summarize recent trends in land access, ownership, and control by sex. The third section presents new statistics from a variety of nationally representative and large-scale unpublished data on gender and land in Africa. Results provide not only a nuanced understanding of the importance of measuring land indicators for gendered development in Africa and globally but also new statistics on a variety of land outcomes to aid stakeholders in the discussion of gender-land inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Africa, most development strategies include efforts to improve the productivity of staple crops grown on smallholder farms. An underlying premise is that small farms are productive in the African context and that smallholders do not forgo economies of scale-a premise supported by the often observed phenomenon that staple cereal yields decline as the scale of production increases. This article explores a research design conundrum that encourages researchers who study the relationship between productivity and scale to use surveys with a narrow geographic reach in order to produce more reliable results, even though results are better suited for policy decisions when they are based on data that are broadly representative. Using a model of endogenous technology choice, we explore the relationship between maize yields and scale using alternative data. Since rich descriptions of the decision environments that farmers face are needed to identify the applied technologies that generate the data, improvements in the location specificity of the data should reduce the likelihood of identification errors and biased estimates. However, our analysis finds that the inverse-productivity hypothesis holds up well across a broad platform of data, despite obvious shortcomings with some components. It also finds surprising consistency in the estimated scale elasticities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a world of high food and energy prices, Africa has an imperative to do a better job feeding itself and ensuring that its people are food secure. At the same time, there is a new business opportunity to work with the private sector in developing the continent's potential to produce significantly more food, raw materials, and biofuels for regional and world markets. A challenge for African policy makers is to find the right balance between a food security and a business agenda, and to ensure that the business agenda engages with large numbers of small farms. Agricultural development requires many things, but the fundamentals for Africa are developing markets, increasing agricultural productivity, and managing volatility. This cannot happen at sufficient scale and speed without strong public sector leadership, enabling policies and investments, and well-focused implementation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Input subsidy programs have once again become a major plank of agricultural development strategies in Africa. Ten African governments spend roughly US$1 billion annually on input subsidy programs (ISPs), amounting to 28.6% of their public expenditures on agriculture. This article reviews the microlevel evidence on ISPs undertaken since the mid 2000s. We examine the characteristics of subsidy beneficiaries, crop response rates to fertilizer application and their influence on the performance of subsidy programs, the impacts of subsidy programs on national fertilizer use and the development of commercial input distribution systems, and finally the impact of ISPs on food price levels and poverty rates. The weight of the evidence indicates that the costs of the programs generally outweigh their benefits. Findings from other developing areas with a higher proportion of crop area under irrigation and with lower fertilizer prices-factors that should provide higher returns to fertilizer subsidies than in Africa-indicate that at least a partial reallocation of expenditures from fertilizer subsidies to R&D and infrastructure would provide higher returns to agricultural growth and poverty reduction. However, because ISPs enable governments to demonstrate tangible support to constituents, they are likely to remain on the African landscape for the foreseeable future. Hence, the study identifies ways in which benefits can be enhanced through changes in implementation modalities and complementary investments within a holistic agricultural intensification strategy. Among the most important of these are efforts to reduce the crowding out of commercial fertilizer distribution systems and programs to improve soil fertility to enable farmers to use fertilizer more efficiently. The challenges associated with achieving these gains are likely to be formidable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A rather unique panel tracking more than 3,300 individuals from households in rural Kagera, Tanzania, during 1991/1994-2010 shows that about one out of two individuals/households who exited poverty did so by transitioning out of agriculture into the rural nonfarm economy or secondary towns. Only one out of seven exited poverty by migrating to the big cities, even though those moving to the city experienced on average faster consumption growth. Further analysis of a much larger cross-country panel of 51 developing countries cannot reject that rural diversification and secondary town development lead to more inclusive growth patterns than metropolitization. Indications are that this follows because more of the poor find their way to the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns, than to distant cities. The development discourse would benefit from shifting beyond the rural-urban dichotomy and focusing more instead on how best to urbanize and develop its rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Africa is urbanizing rapidly. Yet most dual economy models focus on the sectoral rather than spatial dimensions of development. This article adopts a 'dual-dual' approach to measuring rural/urban and farm/nonfarm linkages. We develop an economy-wide model of Ethiopia that distinguishes between cities, towns, and rural areas. The model captures detailed sectoral and regional linkages, internal migration flows, and externalities from urban agglomeration. We find larger linkages between agricultural production and small towns and show that redirecting urban growth toward towns rather than cities leads to broader-based economic growth and poverty reduction. In contrast, industry and services, particularly within cities, are far less effective in reaching rural areas and the poor. Africa's current urbanization pattern-toward major cities rather than towns-will weaken national growth-poverty linkages. Urbanization that takes advantage of the synergistic relationship between agriculture and small towns has the potential to result in a more inclusive growth trajectory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines how clustering affects the entry and exit decisions of farm households into and from nonfarm enterprises in rural Ethiopia. We find that the existence of clusters of microenterprises in the same district increases the likelihood of a rural household to start a nonfarm enterprise. Similarly, clustering of big manufacturing firms in the same zone is found to increase the likelihood of farm households to start a nonfarm enterprise. Nonfarm enterprises operating in clusters are also found to have a lower probability of exit than those operating outside of clusters. The study further investigates the impact of entry and exit into and from nonfarm enterprises on farm household's well-being using as indicators total household income, the food security status of a household, and the household's ability to raise enough money in case of emergency. Using propensity score matching to account for selection bias, we find that entry into nonfarm enterprises significantly increases household's income and food security status. Exit from nonfarm enterprises, on the other hand, is found to significantly reduce household's income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

African countries continue to face deepening food crises that have been accentuated by the global food, energy, and financial crises. This situation is part of a long-term structural problem: decades of under-investments in agricultural sector and poor policies of support for smallholder farmers who form the bulk of the farming population. The inability of these farmers to achieve a supply response when commodity prices were high and market access was less of a problem suggests that there are multiple sets of binding constraints that continue to limit the potential of agricultural growth to reduce food security and poverty on the continent. This article reviews some of the historical trends that have hampered the performance of the agriculture sector. In addition, it reviews the impacts of more positive trends that could stimulate agricultural growth in Africa that could change the African agricultural landscape. The article however warns that there are more recent global developments and some continental challenges that could prevent or slow agricultural growth. These include the global financial crisis, public sector investments, inequities in global agricultural development policies, rush for agricultural lands by foreign investors, domestic commercial financing markets, climate change, and emerging carbon markets. The article argues that while opportunities for accelerated growth exists for African agriculture, new sets of policy instruments will be needed to support smallholder farmers to access new agricultural technologies, finance, reduce impacts of climate change, and adopt sustainable land use practices that can allow them to benefit from emerging global carbon markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article assembles the results of three multicountry surveys on variety performance and adoption patterns to measure the impacts of maize research in West and Central Africa from 1981 to 2005, and uses cost data since 1971 to compute social rates of return on public investments in maize research in the region. Adoption of modern varieties increased from less than 5% of the maize area in the 1970s to about 60% in 2005, yielding an aggregate rate of return on research and development (R&D) investment of 43%. The estimated number of people moved out of poverty through adoption of new maize varieties rose gradually in the 1980s to more than one million people per year since the mid 1990s. Over half of these impacts can be attributed to international maize research at IITA and CIMMYT. The article concludes with a discussion of strategic options to enhance the impacts of maize research in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article develops a new cross-sectional methodology that explicitly incorporates adaptation into an analysis of the impacts of climate change. The methodology examines how a farmer will change choices of species and number to adapt to climate. The approach is applied to study Africa, where the impacts of climate change are expected to be the most severe. The results indicate that in warmer places, African farmers switch from beef cattle to more heat-tolerant goats and sheep. In wetter places, farmers switch from cattle and sheep to goats and chickens. The results indicate that large commercial livestock operations specializing in beef cattle will be hard hit from climate change whereas small farmers who can easily substitute to goats and/or sheep will be more resilient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article shows that the observed sample adoption rate does not consistently estimate the population adoption rate even if the sample is random. It is proved that instead the sample adoption rate is a consistent estimate of the population joint exposure and adoption rate, which does not inform about adoption per se. Likewise, it is shown that a model of adoption with observed adoption outcome as a dependent variable and where exposure to the technology is not observed and controlled for cannot yield consistent estimates of the determinants of adoption. The article uses the counterfactual outcomes framework to show that the true population adoption rate corresponds to what is defined in the modern policy evaluation literature as the average treatment effect (ATE), which measures the effect or impact of a “treatment” on a person randomly selected in the population. In the adoption context, a “treatment” corresponds to exposure to the technology. The article uses the ATE estimation framework to derive consistent nonparametric and parametric estimators of population adoption rates and their determinants and applies the results to consistently estimate the population adoption rates and determinants of the NERICA (New Rice for Africa) rice varieties in Côte d'Ivoire. The ATE methodological approach developed in the article has significant policy implications with respect to judging the intrinsic merit of a new technology in terms of its potential demand by the target population independently of issues related to its accessibility and in terms of the decision to invest or not in its wide-scale dissemination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural nonfarm employment (RNFE) has become a topic of major importance in rural development, as by the mid 2000s, RNFE constituted 35% of rural incomes in Africa and 50% in both Asia and Latin America. The traditional view of RNFE was a sleepy hinterland activity cut off from changes in the national, let alone the global economy. That view was assailed by sweeping changes in rural areas starting with the Green Revolution, then rur-urbanization, and lately, by globalization intervening via both trade and modernization of the national economy including the rise of modern retail and processing. In this article, we hypothesize and offer emerging evidence that the strongest and most positive effects on RNFE of globalization come in the zones that are rur-urbanized, with a tradeables growth-motor induced RNFE sector with clusters of small/medium enterprises for manufactures, and a preponderance of services. Surprisingly, the trade effects are least and the domestic market transformation effects are the strongest. The most challenges are posed for zones that are rur-urbanized and dense zone RNFE with low-moderate local growth motors. The least effects are on hinterland zones. The policy implications are to promote tradeables growth motors (key to creating RNFE in services, the major component of RNFE), and to incorporate “competitiveness”—in a changing urban and global economy—into RNFE promotion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rural nonfarm sector has gained increasing importance not only in Asia but also in Africa. It is, however, widely believed that in most parts of Africa, the growth of the nonfarm economy has increased inequality and has had a limited effect on the poor, who face entry barriers to nonfarm activities. The present article analyzes the relation between nonfarm income, poverty, and inequality in Oromia, Ethiopia. We use two complementary methodologies: (i) econometric estimates of household income from the nonfarm sector; and (ii) a Gini decomposition of analysis income inequality by source. The results consistently indicate that in Oromia entry barriers to nonfarm activities is low, and the general growth of the sector will benefit the poor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The case for promoting export-oriented cash crops in Africa has generally been based on their direct potential contribution to agricultural productivity and small farmer incomes. A relatively neglected avenue of research concerns the synergistic effects that cash cropping can have on other household activities, including food production. The conventional view that cash crops compete with food crops for land and labour neglects the potential for cash crop schemes to make available inputs on credit, management training, and other resources that can contribute to food crop productivity, which might otherwise not be accessible to farmers if they did not participate in cash crop programs. This article builds on previous research by hypothesising key pathways by which cash crops may affect food crop activities and empirically measuring these effects using the case of cotton in Gokwe North District in Zimbabwe. Analysis is based on instrumental variable analysis of survey data on 430 rural households in 1996. Results indicate that—after controlling for household assets, education and locational differences—households engaging intensively in cotton production obtain higher grain yields than non-cotton and marginal cotton producers. We also find evidence of regional spill-over effects whereby commercialisation schemes induce second round investments in a particular area that provide benefits to all farmers in that region, regardless of whether they engage in that commercialisation scheme. The study suggests that the potential spill-over benefits for food crops through participation in cash crop programs are important to consider in the development of strategies designed to intensify African food crop production. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

African agricultural production is modeled as a sequential decision process, with men’s labor first allotted to clearing, then women’s labor allotted to harvesting. A switching regression is then used to measure the constraints due to clearing labor capacity and harvesting labor capacity. The import of men’s clearing labor depends on the valuation of shadow wages. Output appears to be more frequently constrained by husband’s clearing labor, and in this situation male labor appears under-utilized. However, output is also significantly constrained by female harvest labor, although the findings imply that female labor is over-utilized at this stage. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article reports on the IAAE conference on African agriculture and society. Accepting the challenge raised by Minister Thoko Didiza at the opening of the conference, that "professionals in the field of agricultural economics should guide governments," the author highlights a few points where he learnt something useful for this purpose during this conference. A significant point was on the role of small farms. The second important lesson we learnt here is that there is hope for Africa. The success stories, which were presented in the special session on African agriculture, are powerful testimonies in this regard. International trade issues and related domestic policy issues did not play a prominent role in this program.

The article reports on the IAAE conference on African agriculture and society. The four that the article discusses are the following, first, the Bruce Gardner "shock" in his Elmhirst Lecture on the direction of causality between agricultural growth, overall growth, and impact on rural and farm incomes; second, the debate on the fundamental changes occurring in food systems and their policy implications, particularly for small farmers in developing countries; third, the "small farm is beautiful" debate, and fourth, the analysis on rural viability and the need for a more territorial focus, in contrast to a traditional sectoral focus.

The article presents a synopsis of the 25th conference of the International Agricultural Economics Association on African agriculture. At the start of the meeting the organizers were challenged by the South African Minister of Agriculture to make this work relevant to the problems of poor countries and poor people. Some of the major messages which were heard in this conference naturally related to the four sub-themes that the conference was structured around, strategies for reducing poverty; efficiency in food and farming systems; environmental stewardship; and food safety and security.