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Background vaccination uptake in the UK and increased care home testing are likely affecting care home visitation. With scant scientific evidence to date, the aim of this longitudinal qualitative study was to explore the impact of both (vaccination and testing) on the conduct and experiences of care home visits. Methods family carers of care home residents with dementia and care home staff from across the UK took part in baseline (October/November 2020) and follow-up interviews (March 2021). Public advisers were involved in all elements of the research. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Results across 62 baseline and follow-up interviews with family carers (n  = 26; 11) and care home staff (n  = 16; 9), five core themes were developed: delayed and inconsistent offers of face-to-face visits; procedures and facilitation of visits; variable uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine; misinformation, education and free choice; frustration and anger among family carers. The variable uptake in staff, compared to family carers, was a key factor seemingly influencing visitation, with a lack of clear guidance leading care homes to implement infection control measures and visitation rights differently. Conclusions we make five recommendations in this paper to enable improved care home visitation in the ongoing, and in future, pandemics. Visits need to be enabled and any changes to visiting rights must be used as a last resort, reviewed regularly in consultation with residents and carers and restored as soon as possible as a top priority, whilst more education needs to be provided surrounding vaccination for care home staff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: measures of physical capability may be predictive of subsequent health, but existing published studies have not been systematically reviewed. We hypothesised that weaker grip strength, slower walking speed and chair rising and shorter standing balance time, in community-dwelling populations, would be associated with higher subsequent risk of fracture, cognitive outcomes, cardiovascular disease, hospitalisation and institutionalisation.Methods: studies were identified through systematic searches of the electronic databases MEDLINE and EMBASE (to May 2009). Reference lists of eligible papers were also manually searched.Results: twenty-four papers had examined the associations between at least one physical capability measure and one of the outcomes. As the physical capability measures and outcomes had been assessed and categorised in different ways in different studies, and there were differences in the potential confounding factors taken into account, this made it impossible to pool results. There were more studies examining fractures than other outcomes, and grip strength and walking speed were the most commonly examined capability measures. Most studies found that weaker grip strength and slower walking speed were associated with increased risk of future fractures and cognitive decline, but residual confounding may explain results in some studies. Associations between physical capability levels and the other specified outcomes have not been tested widely.Conclusions: there is some evidence to suggest that objective measures of physical capability may be predictors of subsequent health in older community-dwelling populations. Most hypothesised associations have not been studied sufficiently to draw definitive conclusions suggesting the need for further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background dementia policy suggests diagnosing dementia early can reduce the risk of potentially harmful hospital admissions or emergency department (ED) attendances; however, there is little evidence to support this. A diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) before dementia is a helpful proxy to explore early diagnosis. This study investigated the association between an early diagnosis of dementia and subsequent hospitalisations and ED attendances. Method a retrospective cohort study of electronic health care records from 15,836 patients from a large secondary care database in South London, UK. Participants were divided into two groups: those with a diagnosis of MCI before dementia, an early diagnosis, and those without. Cox regression models were used to compare the risk of hospitalisation and ED attendance after dementia diagnosis and negative binomial regression models were used to compare the average length of stay and average number of ED attendances. Results participants with an early diagnosis were more likely to attend ED after their diagnosis of dementia (HR = 1.09, CI = 1.00–1.18); however, there was no difference in the number of ED attendances (IRR = 1.04, CI = 0.95–1.13). There was no difference in the risk of hospitalisation (HR = 0.99, CI = 0.91–1.08) or length of stay between the groups (IRR = 0.97, CI = 0.85–1.12). Conclusion the findings of this study do not support the assumption that an early diagnosis reduces the risk of hospitalisation or ED attendance. The patterns of health service use in this paper could reflect help-seeking behaviour before diagnosis or levels of co-morbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives The purpose of this paper is to investigate the utilisation of general practice Medicare Benefit Schedule (MBS) services aligned to Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) within 6 months of an aged care eligibility assessment and its effects on mortality and transition to permanent residential aged care (PRAC). Design Retrospective cohort study from the Historical Cohort of the Registry of Senior Australians. Setting Community. Participants In total, 69,171 Individuals (aged 75+) receiving home care packages (HCPs) between 2011 and 2015. Outcome measures Mortality and transition to PRAC. Results The claims for a management plan with team care arrangement (TCA) within 3 months of the health assessment (i.e. CGA) was present in 5% and associated with 14% lower mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 95%CI = 0.86, 0.80–0.93) compared to no claims, lower than that seen with partial CGA which was either health assessment claims only 7.0% (aHR, 95%CI = 0.93, 0.89–0.97) or management plan coupled with TCA claims only 9.0% (aHR, 95%CI = 0.91, 0.89–0.97). This pattern was seen in those frailer but not in those where the frailty index score was <0.21. Claims for management plans coupled with TCAs alone were associated with a 10% lower transition to PRAC (asHR, 95%CI = 0.90, 0.85–0.96) in those with FI score < 0.21 while this estimate was not significant in individuals with FI score ≥ 0.21. Conclusion It appears the conduct of a combination of interventions considered to be components of the CGA by GPs was associated with a lower risk of mortality that no claims or partial conduct of CGA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background COVID-19 has disproportionately affected older people. Objective The objective of this paper to investigate whether frailty is associated with all-cause mortality in older hospital inpatients, with COVID-19. Design Cohort study. Setting Secondary care acute hospital. Participants Participants included are 677 consecutive inpatients aged 65 years and over. Methods Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association of frailty with mortality. Frailty was assessed at baseline, according to the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), where higher categories indicate worse frailty. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, ethnicity, previous admissions and acute illness severity. Results Six hundred and sixty-four patients were classified according to CFS. Two hundred and seventy-one died, during a mean follow-up of 34.3 days. Worse frailty at baseline was associated with increased mortality risk, even after full adjustment (P  = 0.004). Patients with CFS 4 and CFS 5 had non-significant increased mortality risks, compared to those with CFS 1–3. Patients with CFS 6 had a 2.13-fold (95% CI 1.34–3.38) and those with CFS 7–9 had a 1.79-fold (95% CI 1.12–2.88) increased mortality risk, compared to those with CFS 1–3 (P  = 0.001 and 0.016, respectively). Older age, male sex and acute illness severity were also associated with increased mortality risk. Conclusions Frailty is associated with all-cause mortality risk in older inpatients with COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a cohort study in terms of its design, the research questions answered by cohort studies, common analytic techniques and the strengths and limitations of this type of study. We also describe the main cohort studies of older populations, many of which are available for secondary data analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective we aimed to investigate the association of smoking cessation with risk of all-cause mortality amongst oldest old people (aged ≥ 80 years). Design this was a prospective cohort study. Setting the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, implemented in 23 provinces of China. Participants a total of 28,643 community-dwelling oldest old people (mean age, 92.9 ± 7.5 years) were included. Methods in this community-based cohort study, Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association of smoking cessation with risk of all-cause mortality. Results during 136,585 person-years of follow-up from baseline to 1 September 2014, compared with never smokers, hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for all-cause mortality were 1.06 (1.02–1.10) for current smokers, 1.23 (1.09–1.39) for transient quitters (≤1 consecutive years since smoking cessation), 1.22 (1.12–1.32) for recent quitters (2–6 consecutive years since smoking cessation) and 1.11 (1.02–1.22) for long-term quitters (>6 consecutive years since smoking cessation). Cox models with penalised splines revealed an increased risk of all-cause mortality after smoking cessation; the highest mortality risk was observed within 2–4 years after smoking cessation and the risk gradually decreased with duration of smoking cessation. We further conducted subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses to reduce the impact of reverse causation. Conclusions smoking is harmful to health in all populations. Our study findings indicated smoking cessation in late life to be associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality amongst oldest old people who have smoked for a long time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scope: it has been suggested that overweight/obesity as a risk factor for incident dementia differs between mid-life and later life. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis ofthe up-to-date current literature to assess this. Search Methods: inclusion criteria included epidemiological longitudinal studies published up to September 2014, in participants without cognitive impairment based on evidence of cognitive assessment and aged 30 or over at baseline assessment with at least 2 years of follow-up. Pubmed, Medline, EMBASE, PsychInfo and the Cochrane Library were searched using combinations of the search terms: Dementia, Alzheimer disease, Vascular Dementia, Multi-Infarct Dementia, Cognitive decline, Cognitive impairment, Mild Cognitive Impairment/Obesity, Overweight, Adiposity, Waist circumference (limits: humans, English language). Handsearching of all papers meeting the inclusion criteria was performed. A random-effects model was used for the meta-analysis. Results: ofthe 1,612 abstracts identified and reviewed, 21 completely met the inclusion criteria. Being obese below the age of 65 years had a positive association on incident dementia with a risk ratio (RR) 1.41 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.20-1.66), but the opposite was seen in those aged 65 and over, RR 0.83 (95% CI: 0.74-0.94). Conclusions: this systematic review and meta-analysis suggests a positive association between obesity in mid-life and later dementia but the opposite in late life. Whether weight reduction in mid-life reduces risk is worthy of further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Following hip fracture surgery, patients from residential care are frequently excluded from inpatient rehabilitation. We aimed to assess the impact of place of residence and other factors such as frailty on rehabilitation outcomes after hip fracture surgery. Methods Retrospective cohort study. Outcome measures included Functional Independence Measure efficiency, discharge destination and recovery of pre-fracture mobility. Univariable and multivariable linear or logistic regression analyses were performed. Setting One general rehabilitation and two geriatric evaluation and management wards in a large public tertiary teaching hospital. Participants A total of 844 patients who underwent inpatient rehabilitation after hip fracture surgery from 2010 to 2018. Results There were 139 (16%) patients from residential care. Being from residential care was not an independent predictor of poor outcomes. Premorbid frailty (Clinical Frailty Scale) was the strongest independent predictor of poorer Functional Independence Measure efficiency, inability to recover pre-fracture mobility and return to community dwelling. Dementia and delirium were also independently predictive of poor outcomes across all measures. Age > 90 years was independently predictive of inability to recover pre-fracture mobility and return to community dwelling. Conclusion Being from residential care is not independently associated with poor outcomes following inpatient rehabilitation after hip fracture surgery and should not be the basis for excluding these patients from rehabilitation. Major predictors of poorer outcomes include premorbid frailty, dementia, delirium and age > 90 years. If able and motivated, those with potentially reversible functional limitations should be given the opportunity to participate in inpatient rehabilitation as even small gains can have a significant impact on quality of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The number of older people with dementia and the cost of caring for them, already substantial, are expected to rise due to population ageing. Objective This study makes projections of the number of older people with dementia receiving unpaid care or using care services and associated costs in England. Methods The study drew on up-to-date information for England from multiple sources including data from the CFASII study, output from the PACSim dynamic microsimulation model, Office for National Statistics population projections and data from the MODEM cohort study. A simulation model was built to make the projections. Results We project that the number of older people with dementia will more than double in the next 25 years. The number receiving unpaid or formal care is projected to rise by 124%, from 530,000 in 2015 to 1,183,000 in 2040. Total cost of dementia is projected to increase from £23.0 billion in 2015 to £80.1 billion in 2040, and average cost is projected to increase from £35,100 per person per year in 2015 to £58,900 per person per year in 2040. Total and average costs of social care are projected to increase much faster than those of healthcare and unpaid care. Conclusion The numbers of people with dementia and associated costs of care will rise substantially in the coming decades, unless new treatments enable the progression of the condition to be prevented or slowed. Care and support for people with dementia and their family carers will need to be increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: some cohort studies of ageing and health supplement questionnaire-based surveys with in-home measurements of biological parameters and others have required respondents to attend assessment centres. Centre-based assessments facilitate detailed measurements and novel technologies, but may differentially influence participation. The aim of this paper is to compare the characteristics of participants who attended a centre with those who chose a home assessment and those who did not have a health assessment.Methods: trained field workers administered a computer-assisted personal interview (CAPI) to a random sample of community-dwelling people aged 50 and over in the participants' homes. All questionnaire respondents were invited to attend an assessment centre for a comprehensive physical assessment. Participants who refused or were unable to attend a centre were offered a home assessment.Results: of the 291 participants who completed the CAPI, 176 had a health assessment: 138 in an assessment centre and 38 in their own home. The centre, home and no visit respondents differed in demographic characteristics, behavioural factors, physical functioning and health. Lower socio-economic status, physical inactivity and current smoking were the most robust predictors of non-participation in the health assessment. Home respondents had the highest levels of physical disability and were much weaker (grip strength) and slower (walking speed) than centre respondents.Conclusion: home and centre physical assessments are required to avoid systematically over-representing healthier and wealthier respondents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Incontinence is common in hospitalised older adults but few studies report new incidence during or following hospitalisation. Objective To describe prevalence and incidence of incontinence in older inpatients and associations with clinical outcomes. Design Secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from consecutive consenting inpatients age 65 years and older on medical and surgical wards in four Australian public hospitals. Methods Participants self-reported urinary and faecal incontinence 2 weeks prior to admission, at hospital discharge and 30 days after discharge as part of comprehensive assessment by a trained research assistant. Outcomes were length of stay, facility discharge, 30-day readmission and 6-month mortality. Results Analysis included 970 participants (mean age 76.7 years, 48.9% female). Urinary and/or faecal incontinence was self-reported in 310/970 (32.0%, [95% confidence interval (CI) 29.0–35.0]) participants 2 weeks before admission, 201/834 (24.1% [95% CI 21.2–27.2]) at discharge and 193/776 (24.9% [95% CI 21.9–28.1]) 30 days after discharge. Continence patterns were dynamic within the peri-hospital period. Of participants without pre-hospital incontinence, 74/567 (13.1% [95% CI 10.4–16.1) reported incontinence at discharge and 85/537 (15.8% [95% CI 12.8–19.2]) reported incontinence at 30 days follow-up. Median hospital stay was longer in participants with pre-hospital incontinence (7 vs. 6 days, P  = 0.02) even in adjusted analyses and pre-hospital incontinence was significantly associated with mortality in unadjusted but not adjusted analyses. Conclusion Pre-hospital, hospital-acquired and new post-hospital incontinence are common in older inpatients. Better understanding of incontinence patterns may help target interventions to reduce this complication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Long-term opioid use and associated adverse outcomes have increased dramatically in recent years. Limited research is available on long-term opioid use in older adults. Objective We aimed to determine the incidence and predictors of long-term or persistent opioid use (POU) amongst opioid-naïve older adults without a cancer diagnosis. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study using five national administrative healthcare databases in New Zealand. We included all opioid-naïve older adults (≥65 years) who were initiated on opioid therapy between January 2013 and June 2018. The outcome of interest was POU, defined as having continuously filled ≥1 opioid prescription within 91–180 days after the index opioid prescription. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the predictors of POU. Results The final sample included 268,857 opioid-naïve older adults; of these, 5,849(2.2%) developed POU. Several predictors of POU were identified. The use of fentanyl (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 3.61; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.63–4.95), slow-release opioids (AOR = 3.02; 95%CI 2.78–3.29), strong opioids (AOR = 2.03; 95%CI 1.55–2.65), Charlson Comorbidity Score ≥ 3 (AOR = 2.09; 95% CI 1.78–2.46), history of substance abuse (AOR = 1.52; 95%CI 1.35–1.72), living in most socioeconomically deprived areas (AOR = 1.40; 95%CI 1.27–1.54), and anti-epileptics (AOR = 2.07; 95%CI 1.89–2.26), non-opioid analgesics (AOR = 2.05; 95%CI 1.89–2.21), antipsychotics (AOR = 1.96; 95%CI 1.78–2.17) or antidepressants (AOR = 1.50; 95%CI 1.41–1.59) medication use were the strongest predictors of POU. Conclusion A significant proportion of patients developed POU, and several factors were associated with POU. The findings will enable healthcare providers and policymakers to target early interventions to prevent POU and related adverse events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To develop a prognostic model of 1-year mortality for individuals aged 65+ presenting at the emergency department (ED) with a fall based on health care spending patterns to guide clinical decision-making. Design Population-based cohort study (n  = 35,997) included with a fall in 2013 and followed 1 year. Methods Health care spending indicators (dynamical indicators of resilience, DIORs) 2 years before admission were evaluated as potential predictors, along with age, sex and other clinical and sociodemographic covariates. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed and internally validated (10-fold cross-validation). Performance was assessed via discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC), Brier scores, calibration and decision curve analysis. Results The AUC of age and sex for mortality was 72.5% [95% confidence interval 71.8 to 73.2]. The best model included age, sex, number of medications and health care spending DIORs. It exhibited high discrimination (AUC: 81.1 [80.5 to 81.6]), good calibration and potential clinical benefit for various threshold probabilities. Overall, health care spending patterns improved predictive accuracy the most while also exhibiting superior performance and clinical benefit. Conclusions Patterns of health care spending have the potential to significantly improve assessments on who is at high risk of dying following admission to the ED with a fall. The proposed methodology can assist in predicting the prognosis of fallers, emphasising the added predictive value of longitudinal health-related information next to clinical and sociodemographic predictors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Optimising timely discharge from hospitals is an international priority. In 2020, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in the United Kingdom Government implementing the Discharge to Assess (D2A) model across England. This funded temporary care home placement to allow further recovery and assessment of care needs outside of the hospital. Objectives Determine if older adults discharged from hospital to care homes after implementation of D2A differ in their characteristics or outcomes. Design and methods Two cohorts of older adults discharged from hospital to care homes pre- and post-implementation of the D2A model (n  = 244), with 6 months of follow-up. Data were extracted from routinely collected healthcare records. Results The mean duration of the hospital admission was reduced (29 vs. 23 days (P  = 0.02)) but discharges to care homes did not increase with implementation of D2A (n  = 161 in both cohorts prior to exclusions). In July–December 2020 (post-implementation), 28% of people were living in a private residence 6 months post-discharge, compared with 18% in the same period in 2019 (P  = 0.09). When those who died were excluded, this changed to 40 vs. 28% (P  = 0.19). There was no change in 6-month mortality (26 vs. 35% (P  = 0.17)), and no increase in readmission rate (0.48 vs. 0.63 (P  = 0.21) readmissions-per-patient over 6 months). No differences in key characteristics were found. However, patients were placed in care homes further from admission addresses (17.3 vs. 9.8 km (P  = 0.00001)). Conclusions Implementation of D2A did not result in poorer outcomes but was associated with a reduced length of hospital stay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background frailty screening facilitates the stratification of older adults at most risk of adverse events for urgent assessment and subsequent intervention. We assessed the validity of the Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR), Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Programme on Research for Integrating Services for the Maintenance of Autonomy seven item questionnaire (PRISMA-7) and InterRAI-ED at predicting adverse outcomes at 30 days and 6 months amongst older adults presenting to the Emergency Department (ED). Methods a prospective cohort study of adults ≥65 years who presented to the ED was conducted. The ISAR, CFS, PRISMA-7 and InterRAI-ED were assessed. Blinded follow-up telephone interviews were completed at 30 days and 6 months to assess the incidence of mortality, ED re-attendance, hospital readmission, functional decline and nursing home admission. The sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value and positive predictive value of the screening tools were calculated using 2 × 2 tables. Results a total of 419 patients were recruited; 47% female with a mean age of 76.9 (Standard deviation = 7.2). The prevalence of frailty varied across the tools (CFS 57% versus InterRAI-ED 70%). At 30 days, the mortality rate was 5.1%, ED re-attendance 18.1%, hospital readmission 14%, functional decline 47.6% and nursing home admission 7.1%. All tools had a high sensitivity and positive predictive value for predicting adverse outcomes. Conclusion older adults who screened positive for frailty were at significantly increased risk of experiencing an adverse outcome at 30 days with the ISAR being the most sensitive tool. We would recommend the implementation of the ISAR in the ED setting to support clinicians in identifying older adults most likely to benefit from specialised geriatric assessment and intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background the aim of this study was to retrospectively operationalise the World Guidelines for Falls Prevention and Management (WGFPM) falls risk stratification algorithm using data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). We described how easy the algorithm was to operationalise in TILDA and determined its utility in predicting falls in this population. Methods participants aged ≥50 years were stratified as 'low risk', 'intermediate' or 'high risk' as per WGFPM stratification based on their Wave 1 TILDA assessments. Groups were compared for number of falls, number of people who experienced one or more falls and number of people who experienced an injury when falling between Wave 1 and Wave 2 (approximately 2 years). Results 5,882 participants were included in the study; 4,521, 42 and 1,309 were classified as low, intermediate and high risk, respectively, and 10 participants could not be categorised due to missing data. At Wave 2, 17.4%, 43.8% and 40.5% of low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups reported having fallen, and 7.1%, 18.8% and 18.7%, respectively, reported having sustained an injury from falling. Conclusion the implementation of the WGFPM risk assessment algorithm was feasible in TILDA and successfully differentiated those at greater risk of falling. The high number of participants classified in the low-risk group and lack of differences between the intermediate and high-risk groups may be related to the non-clinical nature of the TILDA sample, and further study in other samples is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: models projecting future disease burden have focussed on one or two diseases. Little is known on how risk factors of younger cohorts will play out in the future burden of multi-morbidity (two or more concurrent long-term conditions). Design: a dynamic microsimulation model, the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model, simulates the characteristics (sociodemographic factors, health behaviours, chronic diseases and geriatric conditions) of individuals over the period 2014-2040. Population: about 303,589 individuals aged 35 years and over (a 1% random sample of the 2014 England population) created from Understanding Society, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, and the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study II. Main outcome measures: the prevalence of, numbers with, and years lived with, chronic diseases, geriatric conditions and multi-morbidity. Results: between 2015 and 2035, multi-morbidity prevalence is estimated to increase, the proportion with 4+ diseases almost doubling (2015:9.8%; 2035:17.0%) and two-thirds of those with 4+ diseases will have mental ill-health (dementia, depression, cognitive impairment no dementia). Multi-morbidity prevalence in incoming cohorts aged 65-74 years will rise (2015:45.7%; 2035:52.8%). Life expectancy gains (men 3.6 years, women: 2.9 years) will be spent mostly with 4+ diseases (men: 2.4 years, 65.9%; women: 2.5 years, 85.2%), resulting from increased prevalence of rather than longer survival with multi-morbidity. Conclusions: our findings indicate that over the next 20 years there will be an expansion of morbidity, particularly complex multi-morbidity (4+ diseases). We advocate for a new focus on prevention of, and appropriate and efficient service provision for those with, complex multi-morbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: two popular operational definitions of frailty, the frailty phenotype and Frailty index (FI), are based on different theories. Although FI was shown to be superior in predicting mortality to the frailty phenotype, no meta-analysis on mortality risk according to FI has been found in the literature. Methods: an electronic systematic literature search was conducted in August 2016 using four databases (Embase, Medline, CINAHL and PsycINFO) for prospective cohort studies published in 2000 or later, examining the mortality risk according to frailty measured by FI. A meta-analysis was performed to synthesise pooled mortality risk estimates. Results: of 2,617 studies identified by the systematic review, 18 cohorts from 19 studies were included. Thirteen cohorts showed hazard ratios (HRs) per 0.01 increase in FI, six cohorts showed HRs per 0.1 increase in FI and two cohorts each showed odds ratios (ORs) per 0.01 and 0.1 increase in FI, respectively. All meta-analyses suggested that higher FI was significantly associated with higher mortality risk (pooled HR per 0.01 FI increase = 1.039, 95% CI = 1.033-1.044, P < 0.001; pooled HR per 0.1 FI increase = 1.282, 95% CI = 1.258-1.307, P < 0.001; pooled OR per 0.01 FI increase = 1.054, 95% CI = 1.040-1.068, P < 0.001; pooled OR per 0.1 FI increase = 1.706, 95% CI = 1.547-1.881, P < 0.001). Meta-regression analysis among 13 cohorts with HR per 0.01 increase in FI showed that the studies with shorter follow-up periods and with lower female proportion were associated with higher mortality risks by FI. Conclusions: this systematic review and meta-analysis was the first to quantitatively demonstrate that frailty measured by the FI is a significant predictor of mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives To investigate associations between leisure-time physical activity (LPA) and injurious falls in older women and explore modification of associations by physical function and frailty. Methods Women born during 1946–51 from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, injurious falls (self-reported fall with injury and/or medical attention) and self-reported weekly LPA (duration and type). We undertook cross-sectional and prospective analyses using data from 2016 [ n  = 8,171, mean (SD) age 68 (1)] and 2019 surveys (n  = 7,057). Associations were quantified using directed acyclic graph-informed logistic regression and effect modification examined using product terms. Results Participation in LPA as recommended by World Health Organization (150–300 min/week) was associated with lower odds of injurious falls in cross-sectional (adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) 0.74, 95% CI 0.61–0.90) and prospective analyses (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.60–0.94). Compared with those who reported no LPA, cross-sectionally, odds of injurious falls were lower in those who reported brisk walking (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.67–0.89) and vigorous LPA (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.75–1.00). No significant association was found between different types of LPA and injurious falls prospectively. Only cross-sectionally, physical function limitation and frailty modified the association between LPA and injurious falls, with tendencies for more injurious falls with more activity in those with physical limitation or frailty, and fewer injurious falls with more activity among those without physical function limitation or frailty. Conclusion Participation in recommended levels of LPA was associated with lower odds of injurious falls. Caution is required when promoting general physical activity among people with physical limitation or frailty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To investigate the 1-year functional outcomes after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in adults aged ≥65 years with pre-existing long-term care needs. Methods This population-based cohort study was conducted in Tochigi Prefecture, one of 47 prefectures in Japan. We used medical and long-term care administrative databases, which included data on functional and cognitive impairment that were assessed with the nationally standardised care-needs certification system. Among individuals aged ≥65 years registered between June 2014 and February 2018, patients who underwent CPR were identified. The primary outcome was mortality and care needs at 1 year after CPR. The outcome was stratified by pre-existing care needs before CPR based on the total daily estimated care minutes: no care needs, support levels 1 and 2 and care-needs level 1 (estimated care time 25–49 min), care-needs levels 2 and 3 (50–89 min) and care-needs levels 4 and 5 (≥90 min). Results Among 594,092 eligible individuals, 5,086 (0.9%) underwent CPR. The 1-year mortalities after CPR in patients with no care needs, support levels 1 and 2 and care-needs level 1, care-needs levels 2 and 3 and care-needs levels 4 and 5 were 94.6% (n  = 2,207/2,332), 96.1% (n  = 736/766), 94.5% (n  = 930/984) and 95.9% (n  = 963/1,004), respectively. Among survivors, most patients had no change in care needs before and at 1 year after CPR. There was no significant association between pre-existing functional and cognitive impairment and 1-year mortality and care needs after adjusting for potential confounders. Conclusion Healthcare providers need to discuss poor survival outcomes after CPR with all older adults and their families in shared decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background previous studies have focused on the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related death in individual cancers, adolescents or all cancers. Objective to evaluate the risk of CVD-related death in older patients with cancer. Methods older patients with cancer (over 65 years) of 16 cancers diagnosed between 1975 and 2018 were screened out from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program. The proportion of deaths, competing risk regression models, standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and absolute excess risks (AERs) were used to assess the risk of CVD-related death. Results this study included 1,141,675 older patients (median follow-up: 13.5 years). Of the 16 individual cancers, the risk of CVD death exceeded primary neoplasm death in older patients with cancers of the breast, endometrium, vulva, prostate gland, penis and melanoma of the skin over time (high competing risk group). Compared to the general older population, older patients with cancer had higher SMR and AER of CVD-related death (SMR: 1.58–4.23; AER: 21.16–365.89), heart disease-related death (SMR: 1.14–4.16; AER: 16.29–301.68) and cerebrovascular disease-related death (SMR: 1.11–4.66; AER: 3.02–72.43), with the SMR trend varying with CVD-related death competing risk classifications. The risk of CVD-related death in the high-competing risk group was higher than in the low-competing risk group. Conclusions for older patients with cancer, six of 16 individual cancers, including breast, endometrium, vulva, prostate gland, penis and melanoma of the skin was at high risk of CVD-related death. Management for long-term cardiovascular risk in older patients with cancer is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

No treatment options are currently available to counteract cognitive deficits and/or delay progression towards dementia in older people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The 'Train the Brain' programme is a combined motor and cognitive intervention previously shown to markedly improve cognitive functions in MCI individuals compared to non-trained MCI controls, as assessed at the end of the 7-month intervention. Here, we extended the previous analyses to include the long-term effects of the intervention and performed a data disaggregation by gender, education and age of the enrolled participants. We report that the beneficial impact on cognitive functions was preserved at the 14-month follow-up, with greater effects in low-educated compared to high-educated individuals, and in women than in men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction frailty is common in older adults and is associated with increased health and social care use. Longitudinal information is needed on population-level incidence, prevalence and frailty progression to plan services to meet future population needs. Methods retrospective open cohort study using electronic health records of adults aged ≥50 from primary care in England, 2006–2017. Frailty was calculated annually using the electronic Frailty Index (eFI). Multistate models estimated transition rates between each frailty category, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics. Prevalence overall for each eFI category (fit, mild, moderate and severe) was calculated. Results the cohort included 2,171,497 patients and 15,514,734 person-years. Frailty prevalence increased from 26.5 (2006) to 38.9% (2017). The average age of frailty onset was 69; however, 10.8% of people aged 50–64 were already frail in 2006. Estimated transitions from fit to any level of frailty were 48/1,000 person-years aged 50–64, 130/1,000 person-years aged 65–74, 214/1,000 person-years aged 75–84 and 380/1,000 person-years aged ≥ 85. Transitions were independently associated with older age, higher deprivation, female sex, Asian ethnicity and urban dwelling. Mean time spent in each frailty category decreased with age, with the longest period spent in severe frailty at all ages. Conclusions frailty is prevalent in adults aged ≥50 and time spent in successive frailty states is longer as frailty progresses, resulting in extended healthcare burden. Larger population numbers and fewer transitions in adults aged 50–64 present an opportunity for earlier identification and intervention. A large increase in frailty over 12 years highlights the urgency of informed service planning in ageing populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: the impact of long-term changes in physical activity during adulthood in the context of primary prevention of dementia has not been addressed previously. Objective: to study the relationship between changes in time spent walking after middle age and incident dementia in older Japanese individuals. Methodology: we conducted a cohort study of 6,909 disability-free Japanese individuals aged ≥65 years who lived in Ohsaki City, Japan. In both 1994 and 2006, the individual amount of time spent walking per day was assessed using a selfreported questionnaire (<0.5 h, 0.5-1 h or ≥1 h). Based on these three categories of exposure at the two points, participants were categorised into nine groups according to changes in time spent walking. Data on incident dementia were retrieved from the public Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) Database, in which participants were followed up for 5.7 years (between April 2007 and November 2012). The Cox model was used for estimating the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of incident dementia. Results: the 5.7-year incidence of dementia was 9.2%. Compared with persons who remained in the lowest category of time spent walking (<0.5 h/day in both 1994 and 2006), persons who remained in the highest category (≥1 h/day in both 1994 and 2006) had a significantly lower risk of incident dementia: the multivariate-adjusted HR (95% confidence intervals) was 0.72 (0.53 and 0.97). Conclusions: these results suggest that maintaining a higher level of physical activity after middle age may be a key strategy for prevention of dementia in older age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: this paper aims to investigate the nature and extent of physical restraint deaths reported to Coroners in Australia over a 13-year period. Methods: the study comprised a retrospective cohort study of residents dwelling in accredited nursing homes in Australia whose deaths were reported to the Coroners between 1 July 2000 and 30 June 2013 and was attributed to physical restraint. Results: five deaths in nursing home residents due to physical restraint were reported in Australia over a 13-year period. The median age of residents was 83 years; all residents had impaired mobility and had restraints applied for falls prevention. Neck compression and entrapment by the restraints was the mechanism of harm in all cases, resulting in restraint asphyxia and mechanical asphyxia, respectively. Conclusions: this national study confirms that the use of physical restraint does cause fatalities, although rare. Further research is still needed to identify which alternatives strategies to restraint are most effective, and to examine the reporting system for physical restraint-related deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The label 'faller' and the associated stigma may reduce healthcare-seeking behaviours. However, falls are not inevitably progressive and many drivers are modifiable. This observational study described the 8-year longitudinal trajectories of self-reported falls in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) and studied associations with factors, including mobility, cognition, orthostatic hypotension (OH), fear of falling (FOF) and use of antihypertensive and antidepressant medications. Methods Participants aged ≥50 years at each wave were categorised by whether they averaged ≥2 falls in the previous year (recurrent fallers) or not (≤1 fall). Next-wave transition probabilities were estimated with multi-state models. Results 8,157 (54.2% female) participants were included, of whom 586 reported ≥2 falls at Wave 1. Those reporting ≥2 falls in the past year had a 63% probability of moving to the more favourable state of ≤1 fall. Those reporting ≤1 fall had a 2% probability of transitioning to ≥2 falls. Besides older age and higher number of chronic conditions, factors that increased the risk of transitioning from ≤1 fall to ≥2 falls were lower Montreal Cognitive Assessment score, FOF and taking antidepressants. Conversely, male sex, higher timed up and go time, the presence of OH and being on antidepressants reduced the probability of improving from ≥2 falls to ≤1 fall. Conclusion The majority of recurrent fallers experienced favourable transitions. Improvements in cognitive and psychological status, psychotropic prescribing, mobility and OH may help improve trajectories. Findings may help combat stigma associated with falling and promote preventative healthcare-seeking behaviours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background frailty is a condition of reduced function and health due to ageing processes and is associated with a higher risk of falls, hospitalisation, disability and mortality. Objective to determine the relationship between household wealth and neighbourhood deprivation with frailty status, independently of demographic factors, educational attainment and health behaviours. Design population-based cohort study. Setting communities in England. Subjects in total 17,438 adults aged 50+ from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Methods multilevel mixed-effects ordered logistic regression was used in this study. Frailty was measured using a frailty index. We defined small geographic areas (neighbourhoods) using English Lower layer Super Output Areas. Neighbourhood deprivation was measured by the English Index of Multiple Deprivation, grouped into quintiles. Health behaviours included in this study are smoking and frequency of alcohol consumption. Results the proportion of respondents who were prefrail and frail were 33.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 33.0–34.6%] and 11.7 (11.1–12.2)%, respectively. Participants in the lowest wealth quintile and living in the most deprived neighbourhood quintile had 1.3 (95% CI = 1.2–1.3) and 2.2 (95% CI = 2.1–2.4) times higher odds of being prefrail and frail, respectively, than the wealthiest participants living in the least deprived neighbourhoods Living in more deprived neighbourhood and poorer wealth was associated with an increased risk of becoming frail. Those inequalities did not change over time. Conclusions in this population-based sample, living in a deprived area or having low wealth was associated with frailty in middle-aged and older adults. This relationship was independent of the effects of individual demographic characteristics and health behaviours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Every month, 6% of Danish nursing home residents are admitted to hospital. However, these admissions might have limited benefits and are associated with an increased risk of complications. We initiated a new mobile service comprising consultants performing emergency care in nursing homes. Objective Describe the new service, the recipients of this service, hospital admission patterns and 90-day mortality. Design A descriptive observational study. Model When an ambulance is requested to a nursing home, the emergency medical dispatch centre simultaneously dispatches a consultant from the emergency department who will provide an emergency evaluation and decisions regarding treatment at the scene in collaboration with municipal acute care nurses. Method We describe the characteristics of all nursing home contacts from 1st November 2020 to 31st December 2021. The outcome measures were hospital admissions and 90-day mortality. Data were extracted from the patients' electronic hospital records and prospectively registered data. Results We identified 638 contacts (495 individuals). The new service had a median of two (interquartile range: 2–3) new contacts per day. The most frequent diagnoses were related to infections, unspecific symptoms, falls, trauma and neurologic disease. Seven out of eight residents remained at home following treatment, 20% had an unplanned hospital admission within 30 days and 90-day mortality was 36.4%. Conclusion Transitioning emergency care from hospitals to nursing homes could present an opportunity for providing optimised care to a vulnerable population and limiting unnecessary transfers and admissions to hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background emergency department (ED) visits have inherent risks for people with dementia yet increase towards the end-of-life. Although some individual-level determinants of ED visits have been identified, little is known about service-level determinants. Objective to examine individual- and service-level factors associated with ED visits by people with dementia in the last year of life. Methods retrospective cohort study using hospital administrative and mortality data at the individual-level, linked to health and social care service data at the area-level across England. The primary outcome was number of ED visits in the last year of life. Subjects were decedents with dementia recorded on the death certificate, with at least one hospital contact in the last 3 years of life. Results of 74,486 decedents (60.5% women; mean age 87.1 years (standard deviation: 7.1)), 82.6% had at least one ED visit in their last year of life. Factors associated with more ED visits included: South Asian ethnicity (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.13), chronic respiratory disease as the underlying cause of death (IRR 1.17, 95% CI 1.14–1.20) and urban residence (IRR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04–1.08). Higher socioeconomic position (IRR 0.92, 95% CI 0.90–0.94) and areas with higher numbers of nursing home beds (IRR 0.85, 95% CI 0.78–0.93)—but not residential home beds—were associated with fewer ED visits at the end-of-life. Conclusions the value of nursing home care in supporting people dying with dementia to stay in their preferred place of care must be recognised, and investment in nursing home bed capacity prioritised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Previous research has shown older adults experience dynamic changes in frailty status. This study aimed to determine the occurrence of sustained frailty remission and how remission is associated with falls risk. Methods Participants who contributed data to the analysis were in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing from Waves 1 to 8 (2002–2017). Frailty was defined across waves using the frailty index and categorised into robust, pre-frail and frail. We classified participants who improved their frailty category from Wave 1 (2002) to Wave 2 (2004) and sustained/improved category again into Wave 3 (2006) and compared them with those who were either robust or frail across Waves 1–3. Cox proportional hazard modelling was used to determine the risk of incident falls reported at Waves 4–8, with results expressed as hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results Of 2,564 participants, 389 (15·2%) improved frailty category and sustained this during Waves 2–3, 1,489 (58·1%) remained robust and 686 (26·8%) remained frail during Waves 1–3. During the 10-year period (Waves 4–8), a total of 549 participants reported a fall. Compared with those who remained frail during Waves 1–3, those who with sustained frailty remission had a lower risk of future falls (HR 0·41; 95% CI = 0·36–0·45). Conclusions Frailty remission is possible and can be sustained across 5 years. There is a lower risk of future falls in those who sustain frailty remission compared with those who remain frail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Pathways into care are poorly understood but important life events for individuals and their families. UK policy is to avoid moving-in to care homes from acute hospital settings. This assumes that moves from secondary care represent a system failure. However, those moving to care homes from community and hospital settings may be fundamentally different groups, each requiring differing care approaches. Objective To characterise individuals who move-in to a care home from hospital and compare with those moving-in from the community. Design and setting A retrospective cohort study using cross-sectoral data linkage of care home data. Methods We included adults moving-in to care homes between 1/4/13 and 31/3/16, recorded in the Scottish Care Home Census. Care home data were linked to general and psychiatric hospital admissions, community prescribing and mortality records to ascertain comorbidities, significant diagnoses, hospital resource use, polypharmacy and frailty. Multivariate logistic regression identified predictors of moving-in from hospital compared to from community. Results We included 23,892 individuals moving-in to a care home, 13,564 (56.8%) from hospital and 10,328 (43.2%) from the community. High frailty risk adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 5.11 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 4.60–5.68), hospital discharge with diagnosis of fracture aOR 3.91 (95%CI: 3.41–4.47) or stroke aOR 8.42 (95%CI: 6.90–10.29) were associated with moving-in from hospital. Discharge from in-patient psychiatry was also a highly significant predictor aOR 19.12 (95%CI: 16.26–22.48). Conclusions Individuals moving-in to care homes directly from hospital are clinically distinct from those from the community. Linkage of cross-sectoral data can allow exploration of pathways into care at scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The prescription of injectable anticipatory medications is widely accepted by clinicians to be key in facilitating effective last-days-of-life symptom control. Community end-of-life care and admission avoidance is particularly strongly advocated for older patients. However, patient and informal caregiver views and experiences of anticipatory medication have been little studied to date. Objective To understand older patients', informal caregivers' and clinicians' views and experiences of the prescribing and use of anticipatory medications. Design Qualitative study. Setting Patients' homes and residential care homes. Participants Purposive sample of six older patients, nine informal caregivers and six clinicians. Methods Multi-perspective, longitudinal interview study based on 11 patient cases. Semi-structured interviews (n  = 28) were analysed thematically. Results Three themes were identified: (i) living in the present whilst making plans: anticipatory medications were used by clinicians as a practical tool in planning for uncertainty, while patients and informal caregivers tried to concentrate on living in the present; (ii) anticipation of dying: it was rare for patients and informal caregivers to discuss explicitly the process and experience of dying with clinicians; and (iii) accessing timely care: the use of anticipatory medications generally helped symptom control. However, informal caregivers reported difficulties in persuading nurses to administer them to patients. Conclusions Anticipatory medications are simultaneously reassuring and a source of unease to older patients and their informal caregivers. Prescriptions need careful discussion and tailoring to their preferences and experience. Nurses' decisions to administer medication should consider informal caregivers' insights into patient distress, especially when patients can no longer communicate their needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background frailty imparts a higher risk for hospitalisation, mortality and morbidity due to COVID-19 infection, but the broader impacts of the pandemic and associated public health measures on community-living people with frailty are less known. Methods we used cross-sectional data from 23,974 Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging participants who completed a COVID-19 interview (Sept–Dec 2020). Participants were included regardless of whether they had COVID-19 or not. They were asked about health, resource, relationship and health care access impacts experienced during the pandemic. Unadjusted and adjusted prevalence of impacts was estimated by frailty index quartile. We further examined if the relationship with frailty was modified by sex, age or household income. Results community-living adults (50–90 years) with greater pre-pandemic frailty reported more negative impacts during the first year of the pandemic. The frailty gradient was not explained by socio-demographic or health behaviour factors. The largest absolute difference in adjusted prevalence between the most and least frail quartiles was 15.1% (challenges accessing healthcare), 13.3% (being ill) and 7.4% (increased verbal/physical conflict). The association between frailty and healthcare access differed by age where the youngest age group tended to experience the most challenges, especially for those categorised as most frail. Conclusion although frailty has been endorsed as a tool to inform estimates of COVID-19 risk, our data suggest it may have a broader role in primary care and public health by identifying people who may benefit from interventions to reduce health and social impacts of COVID-19 and future pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To determine atrial fibrillation (AF) prevalence and temporal trends, and examine associations between AF and risk of adverse health outcomes in older care home residents. Methods Retrospective cohort study using anonymised linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank on CARE home residents in Wales with AF (SAIL CARE-AF) between 2003 and 2018. Fine-Gray competing risk models were used to estimate the risk of health outcomes with mortality as a competing risk. Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the risk of mortality. Results There were 86,602 older care home residents (median age 86.0 years [interquartile range 80.8–90.6]) who entered a care home between 2003 and 2018. When the pre-care home entry data extraction was standardised , the overall prevalence of AF was 17.4% (95% confidence interval 17.1–17.8) between 2010 and 2018. There was no significant change in the age- and sex-standardised prevalence of AF from 16.8% (15.9–17.9) in 2010 to 17.0% (16.1–18.0) in 2018. Residents with AF had a significantly higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.27 [1.17–1.37], P  < 0.001), all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.14 [1.11–1.17], P  < 0.001), ischaemic stroke (adjusted sub-distribution HR 1.55 [1.36–1.76], P  < 0.001) and cardiovascular hospitalisation (adjusted sub-distribution HR 1.28 [1.22–1.34], P  < 0.001). Conclusions Older care home residents with AF have an increased risk of adverse health outcomes, even when higher mortality rates and other confounders are accounted for. This re-iterates the need for appropriate oral anticoagulant prescription and optimal management of cardiovascular co-morbidities, irrespective of frailty status and predicted life expectancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background (Instrumental) activities of daily living ((I)ADL) questionnaires are often used as a measure of functioning for different purposes. Depending on the purpose, a measurement of functioning that includes subjective patient perspectives can be relevant. However, it is unclear to what extent (I)ADL instruments capture self-perceived functioning. Objective Explore what functioning means to older persons after a hip fracture and assess the extent to which (I)ADL instruments align with self-perceived functioning. Design Qualitative interview study with framework analysis. Setting Prospective cohort study on recovery after a hip fracture among older persons in a hospital in a large city in the west of the Netherlands. Subjects Eighteen home-dwelling older persons (≥70 years) who had a hip fracture 6–12 months ago. Methods Telephone interviews about functioning before and after the hip fracture were coded and analysed using the framework method. Results The activities mentioned by participants to be part of their self-perceived functioning could be split into activities necessary to maintain the desired level of independence, and more personal activities that were of value to participants. Both the 'independence activities' and the 'valued activities' mentioned went beyond the activities included in (I)ADL questionnaires. Due to various coping strategies, limitations in activities that are measured in the (I)ADL questionnaires did not necessarily lead to worse self-perceived functioning. Conclusion Self-perceived functioning differs from functioning measured with (I)ADL questionnaires in the items included and the weighing of limitations in activities. Thus, (I)ADL instruments alone are not enough to measure functioning from the perspective of the older person. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction our objective was to describe trends in returning home after hospitalisation for hip fracture and identify predictive factors of this important patient-focussed outcome. Methods a cohort of hip fracture patients from England and Wales (2018–2019) resident in their own home pre-admission were analysed to identify patient and service factors associated with returning home after hospital discharge, and with living in their own home at 120 days. Geographical variation was also analysed. Results analysis of returning home at discharge included 87,797 patients; 57,104 (65%) were discharged home. Patient factors associated with lower likelihood of discharge home included cognitive impairment (odds ratio (OR) 0.60 [95% CI: 0.57, 0.62]), malnutrition (OR 0.81 [0.76, 0.86]), being at risk of malnutrition (OR 0.81 [0.78, 0.85]) and experiencing delay to surgery due to reversal of anti-coagulant medication (OR 0.84 [0.77, 0.92]). Corresponding service factors included surgery delay due to hospital logistical reasons (OR 0.91 [0.87, 0.95]) and early morning admission between 4:00 and 7:59 am (OR 0.83 [0.78, 0.89]). Nerve block prior to arrival at the operating theatre was associated with higher likelihood of discharge home (OR 1.07 [1.03, 1.11]). Most of these associations were stronger when analysing the outcome 'living in their own home at 120 days', in which two out of 11 geographic regions were found to have significantly more patients returning home. Conclusion we identify numerous modifiable factors associated with short-term and medium-term return to own home after hip fracture, in addition to significant geographical variation. These findings should support improvements to care and inform future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background age-adapted definition of chronic kidney disease (CKD) does not take individual risk factors into account. We aimed at investigating whether functional impairments influence CKD stage at which mortality increases among older people. Methods our series consisted of 2,372 outpatients aged 75 years or more enrolled in a multicentre international prospective cohort study. The study outcome was 24-month mortality. Kidney function was assessed by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR). Geriatric assessments included handgrip strength, short physical performance battery (SPPB), cognitive impairment, dependency in basic activities of daily living (BADL) and risk of malnutrition. Analysis was carried out by Cox regression, before and after stratification by individual functional impairments. Survival trees including kidney function and functional impairments were also investigated, and their predictivity assessed by C-index. Results overall, mortality was found to increase starting from eGFR = 30–44.9 ml/min/1.73 m2 (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.81–5.95) to ACR = 30–300 mg/g (HR = 1.96, 95%CI = 1.23–3.10). However, in survival trees, an increased risk of mortality was observed among patients with impaired handgrip and eGFR = 45–59.9 ml/min/1.73 m2, as well as patients with ACR < 30 mg/g and impaired handgrip and SPPB. Survival tree leaf node membership had greater predictive accuracy (C-index = 0.81, 95%CI = 0.78–0.84 for the eGFR survival tree and C-index = 0.77, 95%CI = 0.71–0.81 for the ACR survival tree) in comparison with that of individual measures of kidney function. Conclusions physical performance helps to identify a proportion of patients at an increased risk of mortality despite a mild–moderate impairment in kidney function and improves predictive accuracy of individual measures of kidney function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives to analyse the accuracy of grip strength and gait speed in identifying mortality; to compare the association between mortality and sarcopenia defined by the EWGSOP1 and EWGSOP2 using the best cut-off found in the present study and those recommended in the literature and to test whether slowness is better than these two definitions to identify the risk of death in older adults. Methods a longitudinal study was conducted involving 6,182 individuals aged 60 or older who participated in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Sarcopenia was defined based on the EWGSOP1 and EWGSOP2 using different cut-off for low muscle strength (LMS). Mortality was analysed in a 14-year follow-up. Results compared with the LMS definitions in the literature (<32, <30, <27 and < 26 kg for men; <21, <20 and < 16 kg for women), the cut-off of <36 kg for men (sensitivity = 58.59%, specificity = 72.96%, area under the curve [AUC] = 0.66) and < 23 kg for women (sensitivity = 68.90%, specificity = 59.03%, AUC = 0.64) as well as a low gait speed (LGS) ≤0.8 m/s (sensitivity = 53.72%, specificity = 74.02%, AUC = 0.64) demonstrated the best accuracy for mortality. Using the cut-off found in the present study, probable sarcopenia [HR = 1.30 (95%CI: 1.16–1.46)], sarcopenia [HR = 1.48 (95%CI: 1.24–1.78)] and severe sarcopenia [HR = 1.78 (95%CI: 1.49–2.12)] according to EWGSOP2 were better predictors of mortality risk than EWGSOP1. LGS ≤0.8 m/s was a better mortality risk predictor only when LMS was defined by low cut-off. Conclusions using LMS <36 kg for men and < 23 kg for women and LGS ≤ 0.8 m/s, EWGSOP2 was the best predictor for mortality risk in older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background no studies have examined the impact of residential medication management review (RMMR, a 24-year government subsidised comprehensive medicines review program) in Australian residential aged care facilities (RACFs) on hospitalisation or mortality. Objective to examine associations between RMMR provision in the 6–12 months after RACF entry and the 12-month risk of hospitalisation and mortality among older Australians in RACFs. Design retrospective cohort study. Subjects individuals aged 65–105 years taking at least one medicine, who entered an RACF in three Australian states between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2015 and spent at least 6 months in the RACF (n  = 57,719). Methods Cox regression models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between RMMR provision and mortality. Adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios were estimated for associations between RMMR provision and next (i) emergency department (ED) presentation or unplanned hospitalisation or (ii) fall-related ED presentation or hospitalisation. Results there were 12,603 (21.8%) individuals who received an RMMR within 6–12 months of RACF entry, of whom 22.2% (95%CI 21.4–22.9) died during follow-up, compared with 23.3% (95%CI 22.9–23.7) of unexposed individuals. RMMR provision was associated with a lower risk of death due to any cause over 12-months (aHR 0.96, 95%CI 0.91–0.99), but was not associated with ED presentations or hospitalisations for unplanned events or falls. Conclusions provision of an RMMR in the 6–12 months after RACF entry is associated with a 4.4% lower mortality risk over 12-months but was not associated with changes in hospitalisations for unplanned events or falls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: falling is a major health problem.Objective: to investigate the predictive value for falls of the maximum step length and gait speed.Design: a prospective cohort study.Setting: geriatric outpatient clinic.Subjects: three hundred and fifty-two community-dwelling older persons screened by their general practitioner.Methods: maximum step length and gait speed were recorded as part of a comprehensive geriatric assessment. One-year follow-up was performed using the fall telephone system.Results: one hundred and thirty-six (39%) of all subjects (mean age: 76.2 years, standard deviation: 4.3, 55% female), fell at least once, of whom 96 were injured. Predictive values for any falls of both maximum step length and gait speed were low (area under the curve (AUC): 0.53 and 0.50) and slightly better for recurrent falls (maximum step length AUC: 0.64 and gait speed AUC: 0.59). After adding age, gender and fall history to the prediction model, the AUC was 0.63 for maximum step length and 0.64 for gait speed, and for recurrent falls, the AUC was 0.69 both for maximum step length and gait speed. The prediction of fall-related injuries showed similar results. A higher maximum step length score indicated a lower likelihood for falls (hazards ratio 0.36; 95% confidence interval 0.17–0.78).Conclusions: maximum step length and gait speed as single-item tools do not have sufficient power to predict future falls in community-dwelling older persons. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background mixed evidence exists on the association between muscle strength and mortality in older adults, in particular for cancer mortality. Aim to examine the dose–response association of objectively handgrip strength with all-cause and cancer mortality. Study Design and Setting data from consecutive waves from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe comprising 27 European countries and Israel were retrieved. Overall, 54,807 men (45.2%; 128,753 observations) and 66,576 women (54.8%; 159,591 observations) aged 64.0 (SD 9.6) and 63.9 (SD 10.2) years, respectively, were included. Cox regression and Fine-Grey sub-distribution method were conducted. Results during the follow-up period (896,836 person-year), the fully adjusted model showed the lowest significant risk estimates for the highest third of handgrip strength when compared with the first third (reference) in men (hazard ratio [HR], 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34–0.50) and women (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.30–0.49) for all-cause mortality. We identified a maximal threshold for reducing the risk of all-cause mortality for men (42 kg) and women (25 kg), as well as a linear dose–response association in participants aged 65 or over. No robust association for cancer mortality was observed. Conclusion these results indicate an inverse dose–response association between incremental levels of handgrip and all-cause mortality in older adults up to 42 kg for men and 25 kg for women, and a full linear association for participants aged 65 years or over. These findings warrant preventive strategies for older adults with low levels of handgrip strength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background the very old (aged ≥ 85) are the fastest growing subpopulation of many developed countries but little is known about how their place of residence changes over time. We investigated transitions in residential status in an inception cohort of 85-year-olds over 10 years. Methods data were drawn from the Newcastle 85+ Study, a population-based longitudinal study of individuals aged 85 in 2006 (i.e. born in 1921) and permanently registered with a Newcastle or North Tyneside general practice (n  = 849). Results 76.3% lived in standard (non-supported) housing at baseline (age = 85) and few moved into a care home. The majority either remained in standard housing or died over the study period. A significant number who lived in standard housing had dependency and frailty at baseline. Discussion given the undersupply of care homes, and preference of older people to remain in their own homes as they age, the questions posed by this analysis are how to survive to 85 and remain in standard housing until the age of 85? And how, and by whom, are such a group being supported to remain at home? We need qualitative research to explore the informal-formal care networks of the very old. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background people approaching the end-of-life frequently face inappropriate care. With Alzheimer Disease or Related Syndromes (ADRS), end-of-life is characterised by progressive decline, but this period remains difficult to identify. This leads to a lack of anticipation and sometimes with unfavourable healthcare utilisation trajectories (HUTs). Objective to quantify unfavourable HUTs during the last year of life and identify their potential determinants in both community and nursing-home settings. Design nationwide cohort study using administrative database. Setting French community and nursing-home residents. Subjects incident ADRS people identified in 2012, who died up to 31 December 2017. Methods we used multidimensional clustering to identify 15 clusters of HUTs, using 11 longitudinal healthcare dimensions during the last year of life. Clusters were qualitatively assessed by pluri-disciplinary experts as favourable or unfavourable HUTs. Individual and contextual potential determinants of unfavourable HUTs were studied by setting using logistic random-effect regression models. Results 62,243 individuals died before 31 December 2017; 46.8% faced unfavourable end-of-life HUTs: 55.2% in the community and 31.8% in nursing-homes. Individual potential determinants were identified: younger age, male gender, ADRS identification through hospitalisation, shorter survival, life-limiting comorbidities, psychiatric disorders, acute hospitalisations and polypharmacy. In the community, deprivation and autonomy were identified as potential determinants. Contextual potential determinants raised mostly in the community, such as low nurse or physiotherapist accessibilities. Conclusions Nearly half of people with ADRS faced unfavourable HUTs during their last year of life. Individual potential determinants should help anticipate advance care planning and palliative care needs assessment. Contextual potential determinants suggest geographical disparities and health inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives This study examined the impact of the residential environment, measured by the Healthy Ageing/Vulnerable ENvironment (HAVEN) Index, on risk of mortality or entry into Permanent Residential Aged Care (PRAC). Design A retrospective cohort study using data from the Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA) was conducted. HAVEN Index values were matched to the ROSA by residential postcode. Study setting and Participants Older individuals living in metropolitan Adelaide and receiving their first eligibility assessment for aged care services between 2014 and 2016 (N  = 16,944). Main Outcome Measure Time to death and entry into PRAC were the main outcomes. Results A higher HAVEN Index value, which represents a favourable residential environment, was associated with a lower risk of mortality and delayed entry to PRAC. For every 0.1 unit increase in HAVEN Index value, the risk of mortality is 3% lower (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.97, 0.96–0.99) and the risk of entry to PRAC is 5% lower (adjusted subdistribution HR, 95%CI = 0.95, 0.94–0.97) in the first 2 years following aged care assessment. After 2 years, the HAVEN Index was not associated with the risk of transition to PRAC. Conclusion Place-based health inequalities were identified in Australians seeking aged care services, demonstrating that a better understanding of local neighbourhoods may provide insight into addressing ageing inequalities. Spatial indexes, such as the HAVEN Index, are useful tools to identify areas where populations are more vulnerable to adverse health outcomes, informing responses to prioritise local improvements and health interventions to enable healthy ageing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity and test–retest reliability of the Delirium Early Monitoring System-Delirium Observation Screening Scale (DEMS-DOSS). Design prospective diagnostic accuracy study of a convenience sample of admitted older adults with DEMS-DOSS and reference standard assessments. Setting 60-bed aged care precinct at a metropolitan hospital in Sydney, Australia. Participants 156 patients (aged ≥65 years old) were recruited to participate between April 2018 and March 2020. One hundred participants were included in the analysis. Measurements Participants were scored on the DEMS-DOSS. Trained senior aged care nurses conducted a standardised clinical interview based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorder (DSM)-IV delirium criteria, within two hours of DEMS-DOSS completion. The senior aged care nurse undertaking the DSM-IV interview was blinded to the results of the DEMS-DOSS. Results Participants' mean age was 84 (SD ±7.3) years and 39% (n  = 39) had a documented diagnosis of dementia. Delirium was detected in 38% (n  = 38) according to the reference standard. The DEMS-DOSS had a sensitivity of 76.3% and a specificity of 75.8% for delirium. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for delirium was 0.76. The test–retest reliability of the DEMS-DOSS was found to be high (r  = 0.915). Conclusion DEMS-DOSS is a sensitive and specific tool to assist with monitoring new onset and established delirium in hospitalised older adults. Further studies are required to evaluate the impact of the monitoring tool on health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) can improve outcomes following ischaemic stroke. Patient selection for MT is predominantly based on physiological and imaging parameters. We assessed whether people living with pre-stroke frailty had differing outcomes following MT. Methods We included consecutive patients undergoing MT at a UK comprehensive stroke centre. We calculated a cumulative deficits frailty index to identify pre-stroke frailty in those patients presenting directly to the centre. Frailty was defined as an index score ≥ 0.24. We assessed univariable and multivariable association between pre-stroke frailty and stroke outcomes. Our primary outcomes were modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and mortality at 90 days. Results Of 175 patients who underwent MT (2014–2018), we identified frailty in 49 (28%). Frail and non-frail patients had similar rates of thrombolysis administration, successful recanalization and onset to recanalization times. Those with pre-stroke frailty had higher 24 hour National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (12(IQR: 8–17) versus 3(IQR: 2–13); P  = 0.001); were less likely to be independent (mRS 0–2: 18% versus 61%; P  < 0.001) and more likely to die (47% versus 14%; P  < 0.001) within 90 days. Adjusting for age, baseline NIHSS and thrombolysis, frailty remained a strong, independent predictor of poor clinical outcome at 90 days (Death OR: 3.12 (95% CI: 1.32–7.4); dependency OR: 3.04 (95%CI: 1.10–8.44). Age was no longer a predictor of outcome when adjusted for frailty. Conclusion Pre-stroke frailty is prevalent in real-world patients eligible for MT and is an important predictor of poor outcomes. Routine assessment of pre-stroke frailty could help decision-making around patient selection for MT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims Prediabetes is used to identify people at increased risk for diabetes. However, the importance of prediabetes in older populations is still poorly explored. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the prevalence of prediabetes, based on either glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels or fasting glucose (FG) levels, or both and the progression of prediabetes to diabetes or to mortality in older participants of the English Longitudinal Study on Ageing. Materials and methods Prediabetes was categorized based on HbA1c levels (5.7%–6.4%) and/or FG levels (5.6–7.0 mmol/L). Information regarding mortality and incident diabetes were recorded during follow-up period of 10 years. Results In 2027 participants (mean age: 70.6 years, 55.2% females), the prevalence of prediabetes ranged between 5.9% and 31.1%. Over 8 years of follow-up, 189 participants (5.4% of the initial population) developed diabetes and 606 (17.4%) died. Among 1,403 people with HbA1c at the baseline <5.7%, 33 developed diabetes and 138 died; in contrast, among 479 participants with a diagnosis of prediabetes using a value of HbA1c between 5.7% and 6.4%, 62 developed diabetes and 56 died. Similarly, among 1,657 people with normal values of FG at baseline 60 had a diagnosis of diabetes during follow-up and 163 died, compared to 225 with FG between 5.6 mmol/L and 7.0 mmol/L in which 35 developed diabetes and 31 died. Conclusion The prevalence of prediabetes in older adults is high, but the progression from prediabetes to diabetes is uncommon, whereas the regression to normoglycemia or the progression to death was more frequent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Cognitive dysfunction is common in haemodialysis patients but whether poor kidney function in the general population is also associated with higher risk of dementia remains unclear. Objective To examine the association of kidney function with incident dementia in community dwelling older adults. Design Whitehall II prospective study. Setting Population-based study on 6,050 adults, mean age 65.8 in 2007–2009. Methods Poor kidney function, defined as estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 in 2007–2009, and adverse change in eGFR was defined as decrease ≥4 ml/min/1.73 m2 between 2007–2009 and 2012–2013. Incident dementia was ascertained through linkage to electronic health records, and Cox regression was used to examine associations with dementia. Results A total of 306 cases of dementia were recorded over a mean follow-up of 10 years. Baseline eGFR <60 was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) for dementia of 1.37 (95% CI 1.02, 1.85) in analysis adjusted for sociodemographic factors, hypertension, obesity, stroke, diabetes and cardiovascular disease/medication. Removing stroke cases at baseline and censoring them over the follow-up yielded an HR of 1.42 (95% CI 1.00, 2.00) for the association between CKD and dementia. Decline of eGFR ≥4 between 2007–2009 and 2012–2013 was associated with incidence of dementia over a 6.3 year mean follow-up (HR: 1.37; 95% CI 1.02, 1.85), with somewhat stronger associations when analyses were restricted to those with eGFR ≥60 in 2007–2009 (1.56; 95% CI: 1.12, 2.19). Conclusion Poor and declining kidney function in older adults is associated with a higher risk of dementia that is not attributable to stroke and persists after accounting for major cardiometabolic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose There are limited real-world data on long-term mortality and visual outcomes in patients treated with anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) for exudative age-related macular degeneration (exudative AMD). We assessed 10-year mortality and clinical outcomes in exudative AMD patients treated with intravitreal therapy (IVT) anti-VEGF injections on a pro-re-nata (PRN) regime following a standard loading regime. Methods Retrospective cohort study of the first 216 exudative AMD patients receiving IVT anti-VEGF for exudative AMD at a public tertiary referral hospital in Scotland. Main outcome measures were mortality, cause of death and best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA). Results A total of 216 patients were included. Mean age at presentation was 79.1 years [standard deviation (SD) 6.9]. Mean follow-up duration was 6.6 years (SD 3.2) during which there was a mean 24.3 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) letter loss in BCVA (P  < 0.0001). Patients received a mean of 2.2 (SD 1.8) injections per year of follow-up. Overall, 52.6% (113/216) died during the period studied. Observed annual mortality incidence risk was 6.5% (SD 3.1) and was found to be significantly lower (P  = 0.0064) than the expected annual death incidence risk (9.6%, SD 1.5) based on age and sex standardised Scottish mortality risk. The most common causes of death were malignancies (21.3%) and infection (20.0%). Conclusions This study highlights the relatively good long-term prognosis in vision and mortality in exudative AMD treated with a PRN regime in the real world. Although the majority lost vision, the rate of decline was significantly slower than that which would have been experienced in the pre-anti-VEGF era and reassuringly standardised mortality risk was lower than the national average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]