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The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been hailed as a key pillar and catalyst for economic growth, industrialization, and sustainable development in Africa. One of the anticipated benefits is the promise to increase intra‐African trade through the elimination of import duties and other tariffs among countries. However, due to the heterogeneity between the African countries, questions remain as to whether each country will benefit from tariff elimination. This paper aims to evaluate the macroeconomic, fiscal, and welfare consequences of import tax removal in Senegal with the rest of Africa. We link an extended version of the partnership for economic policy (PEP) static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a non‐parametric microsimulation approach. We calibrate the model with Senegal's most recent Social Accounting Matrix. The microeconomic model is calibrated using the latest Senegalese household consumption survey. The findings indicate that tariff removal from the rest of Africa has favorable economic, fiscal, and welfare impacts for Senegal. The paper suggests that it will lead to an increase in economic growth and investment. The removal of tariffs is expected to favor urban households over rural ones and leads to a modest decrease in income inequality, accompanied by a 3.36% reduction in the number of poor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the trade–peace nexus in Africa and ascertains how poverty and inequality tilt the relationship in the eight regional (economic) blocs in Africa, viz. the Arab Maghreb Union (UMA), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Community of Sahel–Saharan States (CEN–SAD), the East African Community (EAC), the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), from 1998 to 2020 using the Driscoll–Kraay estimate. The study contributes to the literature by disaggregating the peace effect of trade in Africa by the regional (economic) blocs to allow for in‐depth and context‐specific analysis. The paper also expands the scope of existing studies by examining the direct effect of poverty and inequality on peace in addition to the indirect effect that is revealed through their interactions with trade integrations. The findings reveal that trade promotes peace in Africa, while wide income inequality and a large poverty gap increase the likelihood of conflict. The interaction of poverty and inequality with trade integration shows that while the poverty level does not improve the effect of trade on peace, inequality reduces the impact of trade on peace. The study concludes that poverty and inequality play significant roles in the trade–peace nexus in Africa. Policy recommendations are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the effects of informal finance on formal finance in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries. To this end, it uses a Probit model with a binary endogenous regressor and data from the Global Findex database, 2021. The findings indicate that having already saved informally positively affects the behavior of individuals to save formally. They also indicate that informal financial credit positively affects formal financial credits in the WAEMU. These findings indicate that formal finance is complementary to informal finance in the WAEMU. On the other hand, the findings show that labour force participation, mobile banking use and online banking use increase the likelihood of use of formal and informal services in the WAEMU. This paper suggests that formal financial institutions (mainly banks and microfinance institutions) should strengthen their collaboration with actors (money keepers, itinerant bankers, tontines systems) involved in the provision of informal financial services to populations in order to improve formal financial intermediation in the WAEMU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrialization constitutes one of the strategies of structural transformation in many sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries. In this paper, we re‐examine the effect of financial development on the industrialization of 35 SSA countries over the period 1996–2018. Contrary to previous work, we formulate the hypothesis that there exists a threshold of financial development beyond which financial development positively influences industrialization. Using the dynamic panel threshold regression model, and system generalized methods of moment models, we find two main results. First, financial development has a negative and significant impact on the development of industrialization. Secondly, the findings show the existence of a nonlinear relationship between financial development and industrialization development. Thus, we find that financial development has a negative effect on industrialization below the threshold while the effect is significantly positive on industrialization in countries whose financial development is above the threshold. The results are stable to the different robustness tests used. These findings highlight the need for SSA countries to develop better financial institutions if they hope to boost the manufacturing sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes intra‐Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) trade in services by establishing its determinants and exploring the role of trade facilitation on the same. The study relies on the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator of the gravity model on bilateral services trade data for total services and eight categories of services in 17 COMESA countries from 2005 to 2019. Results reveal that several factors determine intra‐COMESA services trade, the salient ones being GDP (exporter's and importer's), distance, contiguity, and time zone differences. Trading under a service‐specific trade agreement affects a few services: transport and other business services exports. The effect is positive for transport services and negative for other business services exports. Trade facilitation measures, especially broadband technologies, significantly improve services trade across various sectors. A key policy implication of our results is that service trade is more likely to grow through digital, information, and communication infrastructure development. Thus, policy should prioritize increasing access and usage of broadband technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a susceptible–exposed–infected–quarantined–removed (SEIQR) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of the current COVID‐19 pandemic. The SEIQR configuration setting is calibrated using COVID‐19 data from Morocco. Using the model, we demonstrate how the pandemic might lead to declining consumption and productivity. We illustrate that a combination of quarantine policy, vaccination and treatment of the uninfected person is more successful than using only one of the policies. The combination lowered the number of infected, exposed and quarantined people. We also assessed the economic effects of multiple strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examined the short‐ and long‐run impacts of gasoline price, macroeconomic factors and road length on road traffic crashes, injuries and fatalities in Nigeria. Annual data from 1995 to 2019 and autoregressive distributed lag approach were employed. Results suggest that gasoline price, per capita income, road length and population density significantly influence road safety outcomes. Gasoline price has a positive short‐run impact on crashes, injuries, and fatalities contrary to findings in developed countries. Road crashes tend to decrease when income increases in the short term. Population density leads to improvement in road safety outcomes while road length exacerbates it. Government's policy on gasoline price increase could worsen road safety outcomes unless it is accompanied by improvement in road infrastructure, safe public transport and economic growth, [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effect of financial development on domestic investment in West African countries. The study uses data from 1985 to 2019 and employs the pooled mean group technique. The main finding of the study is that financial development has a positive effect on domestic investment in the long run but an insignificant effect in the short run. Furthermore, remittances, real GDP per capita and trade openness increase investment rate. The results of causality tests support the view that investment is a channel through which financial development stimulates economic growth. Therefore, it is reasonable for the selected countries to formulate policies that promote domestic credit to the private sector in order to ease liquidity constraints and increase investment and economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect of competition on nonperforming loans in the Nigerian banking industry between 2011 and 2018 using the system generalized method of moments. The findings establish the competition‐stability hypothesis in the Nigerian context. The interaction between competition and bank size/capitalization has a positive and significant effect on nonperforming loans. These results showed that low competition increased nonperforming loans in the Nigerian banking industry while bank size and capitalization enhanced competition to increase nonperforming loans. Also, bank size/capitalization are complementary for addressing nonperforming loans. The paper recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) regulates the market power of the five largest banks in the industry to address the adverse effects of competition on mounting nonperforming loans in the Nigerian banking industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach, this paper presents new evidence on the validity of international transmission of economic shocks from key trading partners as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries. The GVAR model was estimated for 21 SSA countries grouped into three country classes—oil‐rich, other‐resources‐rich and non‐resource‐based economies, to account for output shocks from crucial trading partner countries—United States, United Kingdom, China and Europe. Furthermore, the generalized forecast error variance decompositions results reveal that output shocks from key trading partners constitute significant contributors to changes in key macroeconomic indicators—real gross domestic product, inflation, exchange rate and short‐term interest rate, in the SSA region. The generalized impulse response functions indicate that these economic shocks have more significant impacts on oil‐rich countries than on other country groups. A key recommendation from this study is that SSA countries, especially the resource‐rich economies, need to strengthen and diversify their economic structure, including the trade basket. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the relative influence of bilateral and multilateral concessional debts on public investment in 32 sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1985–2020. Dynamic panel autoregressive distributed lag models comprising the mean group, pooled mean group and dynamic fixed effect estimators were employed in our model estimations. The results revealed that bilateral and multilateral concessional debts had a long‐run positive and significant effect on public investment. The findings indicated that a 1% change in bilateral and multilateral concessional debt was associated with 8.6 and 11.3% increases in public investment, respectively. While the short‐run influence of bilateral concessional debts was significantly positive, multilateral concessional debts had a short‐run positive but insignificant effect on public investment. It is discovered that institutional quality is associated with declines in public investment. The contingency analysis shows that institutional quality explains a lot about how well bilateral and multilateral concessional debts drive public investment. The evidence suggests that poor institutional quality is more likely to undermine the effectiveness of bilateral concessional debts on productive investment than multilateral concessional debts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial inclusion remains at the heart of governments concerns. By creating favorable conditions for access to a diversified range of adapted financial products and services at affordable costs for the populations, financial inclusion generates important opportunities that could lead to increased tax revenue mobilization. This paper analyzes the effects of financial inclusion on tax revenue mobilization, using panel data from West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries over the period 2006–2019. The findings suggest that financial inclusion positively and significantly influences government's tax revenue. Moreover, by looking at the effects of disaggregated financial inclusion dimensions (access, use, and affordability) on various components of tax revenue, we find that the estimated coefficients on the subcomponents of financial inclusion are statistically significant. Results also indicate that the magnitude of effect of financial inclusion is higher on indirect taxes compared to direct tax revenues. This research recommends that policy‐makers should prioritize financial inclusion in their policies and development agenda through National Financial Inclusion Strategies (NFIS) because it can increase countries' resource mobilization and help them to build fiscal resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the direct and combined impacts of trade facilitation and information and communication technology (ICT) on bilateral flows of 25 sub‐Saharan countries. For that purpose, we select time to export and import as specific trade facilitation indicators and broadband use to study ICT impacts. Our sample covers a total of 93 countries over the period 2004–2018. By preprocessing data analysis, we impute time costs missing values, an essential shortcoming of the available databases, to study trade facilitation over time. Lastly, we employ a gravity model and implement a Bonus Vetus Estimation. Our results show that broadband use exerts a positive and significant effect on trade, especially relevant for intra‐African trade flows. Furthermore, the combined effects indicate that broadband also modulates the negative impacts of time to export and time to import in the case of intra‐SSA countries' trade. The more significant result is found for time to export. Our results also confirm that time costs are not only particularly harmful to intra‐African trade but also negatively impact trade flows from SSA countries to the rest of the world. These outcomes show the importance of coordinating trade facilitation and digital transformation policies, particularly those devoted to digitally transforming African customs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of financial openness on financial sector development and income inequality. We use the de jure and de facto measures of financial openness across 78 countries from 1980 to 2019. By employing a system generalized method of moments (GMM) with 5‐year averaged data and a novel push and pull modeling framework, we obtain three key results. First, the de jure measure of financial openness exacerbates income inequality and is sensitive to banking crises and conflict intensity. Second, the de facto measure spurs stock value traded in emerging market economies (EMEs) and declines domestic credit in Africa. Third, the interaction between de facto measures with schooling and governance factors affects financial sector development and income inequality. We highlighted that the mere usage of the de jure measure and their interaction is incorrect. The key implication is that valuable information about the real impact of openness can be obtained from the de facto measures and their interaction with favorable macroeconomic fundamentals, governance factors, and adverse nonpolicy factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

African countries generally cut corporate income tax (CIT) rates in the hopes of attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), whereas the effectiveness of tax rate reductions in attracting extractive industries FDI is controversial. This paper estimates the impact of the statutory CIT rate, as applied to mining companies, on FDI inflows to the gold and silver sectors of African economies. The estimation results indicate that the impact of the mining CIT rate on the host country's gold and silver FDI inflows is negative, but not statistically significant, at the conventional levels of significance. These results suggest that cuts in the CIT rate applied to mining companies will not necessarily attract FDI to gold and silver projects. Moreover, we find a strategic complementarity in gold and silver FDI inflows between countries, suggesting that an increase in the host country's gold and silver FDI inflows may stimulate FDI to gold and silver projects in neighbouring countries. Furthermore, the results show that infrastructure, government stability and gold and silver reserves positively affect gold and silver FDI inflows. The main findings of the paper suggest that, instead of granting corporate tax incentives, governments may consider improving the quality of socio‐economic infrastructure, the availability of geological information and promoting political and economic stability for attracting mining investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investments in large‐scale land acquisition by foreigners, also referred to as land grabbing, are crucial to sub‐Saharan Africa's development. Land acquisition investments have attracted considerable attention in global development circles due to their potential positive (e.g., technology transfer, employment creation, infrastructure improvement, and global market integration) and negative (e.g., environmental degradation, food insecurity, displacement, and loss of livelihoods) impacts. The factors making land investments attractive to foreign investors are unclear. This paper examines country characteristics associated with land acquisitions in 20 sub‐Saharan African countries to provoke evidence‐based discussion. The paper estimates regression models of land acquisitions using country‐level data from 2010 to 2019 on demographic and economic conditions, natural resources, business practices and governance. The results reveal that the availability of land and water, corruption, days required to start a business, government effectiveness, cost of business startup and political stability are critical determinants of land acquisition investments in sub‐Saharan Africa. The paper recommends that African governments should: (1) strengthen regulatory frameworks on foreign direct investment in land; (2) scrutinize investors' business models, technical experience and knowledge of local culture; (3) undertake rigorous environmental and social impact assessments (ESIA) to weigh the long‐term cost‐benefits of LASLA projects; and (4) conduct transparent contract negotiations, taking political and economic power imbalances between parties into consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the determinants of private tutoring in five major Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries: Egypt, Algeria, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia. The paper uses data extracted from the SAHWA Youth Survey (2016) and runs a probit model. The main findings indicate that age, receiving financial support, having educated parents and living in urban areas increase the demand for private tutoring. Conversely, the results show that being a male student or a child of an employed mother will decrease the need for a private tutor. The empirical findings propose potential policy implications for MENA countries facing the exacerbation of gaps in the education system while emphasizing the challenges hindering public schools from delivering quality education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural entrepreneurship is an important employment generation intervention for the fast‐growing young labour force in developing countries. Many bottlenecks including access to finance impede rural youths from performing in their new ventures. This paper examines the impact of access to finance on rural youths' entrepreneurship in Benin using data from the second wave of the School‐To‐Work Transition Survey, involving over 900 youths. The paper employs the endogenous switching regression technique, combined with propensity score matching, to investigate the drivers of rural youths' access to finance and its impact on entrepreneurship intention and performance. The results indicate that age, education, poverty status, experience, working in the agricultural sector and the existence of a bank branch are important determinants of rural youths' access to finance. The results also show that access to finance increases the probability of youth entrepreneurship by 15.2% on average. Moreover, the study shows a significant gender gap in rural entrepreneurship of 5.24% among youths with access to finance in Benin. These results suggest that policymakers should facilitate the access of youth, especially young women, to finance by encouraging formal financial institutions to reduce their credit eligibility conditions for those who do not have collateral. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries across the world continue to invest in social protection programs with the goal of ending poverty by 2030. It is important to examine these programs to know whether they are serving the purpose of reducing poverty. In Rwanda, the impact of the Vision Umurenge Program (VUP) regarding poverty‐related outcomes has not been consistently revealed. This leads to uncertainty about the program's effectiveness in achieving the stated goals. This paper intends to fill this gap by estimating the impact of the VUP Direct Support on poverty outcomes. It uses the Propensity Score Matching method to compare the effects of the VUP with a counterfactual outcome. The findings show that the program is benefitting households in response to economic risks. However, the scheme is not lifting them above the national poverty lines. The main contribution of the paper is that it uses a novel method using the latest statistics to evaluate the VUP. In addition, it uses the most recent household data. The study provides a significant contribution to evaluation of the effectiveness of anti‐poverty interventions in Rwanda, as well as the Sub‐Saharan region, where the journey towards achieving the goal of reducing poverty is demanding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the effects of climatic variables on food crop yields at the prefectural level from 1996 to 2016 in Togo. Using the panel‐corrected standard errors method and panel data from departments in charge of agricultural statistics and meteorology, the results show that meteorological variables have various effects on food crops yields, but the negative effects are dominant. In addition, adaptation strategies through agricultural land reallocation have not enabled farmers to improve food crops yields. There is an urgent need for public authorities to implement actions to strengthen farmers' resilience through practice adoption and cultural innovations for adaptation to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper highlights the existence of a nonlinear relationship between bank stability and competition and analyzes the role that government intervention plays in shaping this relationship. We used a sample of 45 banks in North African countries over the period 2005–2019. We applied a semiparametric approach based on penalized spline estimation. The results unveil the specific shape of the competition–stability relationship at different levels of competition; banks reconsider their risk‐taking behavior at each level of competition. This nonmonotonic stability at different levels of competition is attributed to the quality of intervention, which is found to be an important determinant in shaping this relationship. Thus, we explain the dispersion of risk levels among North African banks in part by the quality of regulation in each country and conclude by recommending the strengthening of regulation, supervision and the macro‐prudential framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines, in depth, the hypotheses explaining the tax effort of seven West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries over the period 1996–2018. The studies of Karakaplan and Kutlu were applied to the stochastic tax frontier model. This provides a new method for analyzing tax effort that solves potential endogeneity problems, especially those of income. This study confirms the positive impact of income, trade openness, urbanization, government capital spending and anticorruption on tax revenue mobilization, while the size of the agricultural sector has a negative impact on tax revenue. On the other hand, reforms of tax institutions have no effect on tax effort. The average tax revenue of the countries of the WAEMU is 11.34 and the average tax effort is estimated at 0.7901 over the period 1996–2018. Thus, these countries could achieve a tax revenue to GDP ratio of 13.72% if they fully exploit their potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of literature highlights the importance of export sophistication for economic development. Given the newness of the literature on export sophistication, its determinants are under‐exploited. As a pioneer study, this paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by examining the effect of infrastructure development on export sophistication. Based on a panel of 45 African countries over the period 2003–2016, the results of the different estimations show that infrastructure, including transport, electricity, ICT and access to water and sanitation, improves export sophistication in Africa. Our results also show that the effect of infrastructure varies at different intervals of the export sophistication distribution. Therefore, improved infrastructure would allow African countries to not only improve their export structure but also achieve sustainable and durable growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to evaluate efficiency and competition dynamics of the banking sector in Kenya for the period 2001–2017 using bank‐level data for 37 commercial banks. We apply non‐parametric data envelopment analysis to analyze measures of various aspects of efficiency in the banking sector. We also adopt Panzar–Rosse, H‐statistics to assess the level of competition in the banking sector. To examine the effect of efficiency on competition, panel estimators are applied. The study findings indicate that efficiency was on an upward trend and averaged 69%. The banking sector is characterized by monopolistic competition as shown by an H‐statistic of.59. Managerial ability measured by data envelopment analysis efficiency score was found to be an important factor in promoting competition for the Kenyan banking sector. The study shows that there is room for Kenyan banks to improve their efficiency by optimizing the scale of operations and continuing to adopt technology. This paper recommends policy makers to continue adopting policies that promote greater banking sector efficiency and competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Old Age Pension (OAP) to elderly South Africans is one of the biggest programs in developing countries. It's a vital income source to many households because it puts a significant cash transfer into the hands of many poor households, and the sharp increase in its take‐up at the minimum eligibility age further demonstrates its importance. This paper estimates the OAP's impact on households' food security, quality of water and sanitation facilities, where the last two are essential public health‐related outcomes. We find that the OAP has a significant and positive impact on food security, but not on the quality of drinking water and sanitation. We attribute the latter to the high fixed costs associated with access to quality drinking water and proper sanitation services and their nature as a form of public good. The paper further attempts to understand whether gender influences these outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyze the effect of information and communication technology (ICT) diffusion on the shadow economic activities in Africa for the period from 2000 to 2015. To this end, we use a panel data model on a sample of 48 countries. The results obtained show that the diffusion of ICTs, especially mobile telephony and the Internet, negatively and significantly affect the size of the shadow economy in Africa. The level of education, capital stock, economic growth, and financial development also contribute to reducing the size of the informal economy in Africa. However, our results suggest that informal activities are motivated by the abundance of natural resources and migrant remittances. Robustness checks are done through the system generalized method of moments and a change in the measurement of the shadow economy confirms the validity of the results. We recommend to decision‐makers to implement public policies facilitating the access and the use of new telecommunications tools and services and to improve the institutional framework to encourage private economic agents to invest in formal activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of the sectoral reallocation of labor on unemployment in Morocco. Using the Lilien index for job reallocation, we estimate an autoregressive distributed lag model using quarterly data between 2001 and 2019. The analysis yielded two key findings. In the short run, job reallocation raises unemployment, which can be attributed to the inadequacy of the quantity of newly created jobs in the emerging sectors, the mismatch between the actual and the needed skills of the workforce, and the costs of job search. In the long run, job reallocation reduces unemployment as the emerging sectors develop and the workforce adapts to the changes in the labor market. Policymakers should design strategies that accelerate the adaptation of labor supply to the needs of emerging sectors and reduce transitional unemployment. Public policy should focus on identifying and developing emerging and labor‐intensive sectors that can absorb the surplus of skilled and unskilled labor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to assess the effect of government spending on happiness in 39 African countries from 2006 to 2018. The neoclassical view predicts a positive effect, while public choice theory predicts the opposite. The results obtained using the Generalized Method of Moment reveal that public spending has no direct effect on happiness in Africa. However, public spending positively affects happiness in the poorest countries of Africa. Furthermore, governments can improve the happiness of African populations through public spending coupled with democratic regimes and the control of inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines whether technological innovations such as information and communication technology infrastructure, mobile phone subscriptions, secure internet servers and the number of automated teller machines and bank branches increased financial deepening in 43 African countries for the period 2010–2019. The study employs panel corrected standard errors, fixed effects and quantile regressions for empirical analysis. The results show that technological innovations have a positive and significant influence on financial deepening in Africa in terms of banks' mobilisation of deposits and allocation of credit to enterprises. Furthermore, the technological indicators have a strong and positive effect on higher levels of bank credit to the private sector than lower levels. As for bank deposits, only the number of branches was found to have significant and positive effects at a high level of bank deposits compared with a low level. These results imply that African governments and development partners can leverage ICT developments to increase financial deepening and reinvigorate debt financing, which is the primary funding source for small and medium‐size enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Catastrophic healthcare expenditure (CHE) can plunge households into poverty. Faced with CHE, the question that becomes relevant is how long it will take the household to exit CHE. This paper examines the effect of the Ghana National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) on exit time from CHE. The paper uses the Cox proportional hazard model for the analysis, with data sourced from round six of the Ghana Living Standard Survey and World Development Indicators. The results show that households that spend 40% (20%) of their non‐food incomes on healthcare, on average, exit CHE after 10 months and 4 days (13 months and 24 days) being in CHE and those with NHIS coverage exit CHE 19 days (30 days) earlier than those without NHIS coverage. Policy implications arising from this paper include the need to expand NHIS enrolment to mitigate impoverishment due to out‐of‐pocket healthcare payments. Households with higher risks of severe CHE and longer exit time from CHE should be identified and provided with comprehensive NHIS coverage than those with lower risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates, for the first time, the uncertainty on the tourism of North Africa and uncertainty on the second‐degree effects of the North African tourism sector. The study uses data from 1995 to 2019 and a structural vector autoregression to perform the investigation. The research finds that uncertainties, measured by the uncertainty of Europe, the uncertainty of the Middle East and Central Asia, and the volatility of GDP growth of the Euro area, have significant negative effects on investment and job creation in, as well as the contribution to the GDP of, the North African tourism sector. The paper invents a new proxy of risk, measured by the volatility of crude oil production in North Africa, and finds that this new risk measure has a significant negative impact on the North African tourism sector. The results show that geopolitical risk and the uncertainty of Africa do not significantly affect the North African tourism sector. The paper suggests that policymakers in North Africa subsidize tourism‐related activities and explore new markets to attract tourists during periods of high risk and uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of access to electricity on internal conflicts in Africa. Using income inequality as a transition variable and a sample of 36 countries, we estimate a panel data model by several regressions, including fixed effects, random effects, generalized least squares and the Driscoll–Kraay method from 1990 to 2017. Our findings show that regardless of the considered dimension, access to electricity reduces the risk of internal conflicts in Africa. However, its effects differ depending on whether a given area is urban or rural. The findings also suggest that income inequality is crucial to reducing internal conflicts in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the development of vulnerable employment in 43 sub‐Saharan African countries by using yearly data for 1996–2018 period. The paper first outlines the main factors and discusses the issue from the perspective of developing countries, and then constructs a panel data elasticity model. The model expands the economic growth framework further and assesses the effects of rurality, sectoral composition, demography, and the quality of economic and political institutions. Prais–Winsten robust estimation results for the expanded model show nonindustrial employment to be the main source of vulnerable employment. Additionally, the increase in urban population share is found to have a positive impact, while nonemployed population is negatively associated. The results also show that upper‐middle income countries differ from low and lower‐middle income groups with regard to the significance of economic and political institutions. These findings clarify the prominence of the Sustainable Development Goals policy agenda and gradual reform strategies beginning with economic quality toward improvement of political institutions. At the end, we highlight several policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper takes a new dimension on the foreign direct investment (FDI)–growth nexus through the lens of the allocation puzzle. We examine how the influx of FDI affects the broader economy through its impact on real economic sectors in a panel of 42 Sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries over 1980–2017. Using a dynamic panel model and decomposing the real sector into its parts, we test for the possibility of a two‐way bi‐directional relationship between growth in agriculture, manufacturing, industry and service value additions, and FDI. There is no evidence of an allocation puzzle at the level of the real sector and the components parts, which suggests that SSA countries with relatively high growth in the real sector will attract more FDI. While the effect of FDI on the real sector is positive at the disaggregated level, there is a positive bi‐directional effect between FDI and growths in manufacturing, industry and service value additions. The results are robust to key determinants of the growth–FDI nexus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is against this background that the African Development Bank, in collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme and The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, organized its 2021 African Economic Conference from 2 to 4 December 2022 in Cabo Verde to address the timely issue of post-COVID-19 development financing in Africa. At the time this paper was finalized (31 July 2022), close to 12 million COVID-19 cases had been reported in Africa (Figure 1), more than 225,000 people had died from the coronavirus (Figure 2) and the total number of active cases in Africa was about 500,000 (Figure 3). Since 2020, Africa and the entire world have experienced socioeconomic challenges of alarming proportions owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. Many policy responses and stimulus packages designed seem insufficient to address the negative effect of COVID-19, mostly when access to financing was very low and the lending gap very high prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. [Extracted from the article]

This paper investigates the determinants of venture capital investments across 25 African countries over the period 2014–2019. In particular, it considers the significance of innovation and digitalization in Africa's venture capital activity. The results show that digital infrastructure, high‐technology exports, internet coverage, market size, minority investor protection and government effectiveness are the main drivers of venture capital deals in Africa over the period examined. More generally, these findings highlight that digital infrastructure and connectivity, innovation and institutional frameworks all play an important role in shaping a favorable environment to attract venture capital funding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect of public and private health spending on health outcomes measured by infant and child mortality rate using a panel of 37 African countries over the period 1995–2018. Based on both system generalized method of moments and least squared dummy variable corrected bias estimators, we find that the level of public health expenditures has statistically significant positive effects on mortality reduction. However, private health spending has a statistically significant positive effect on infant and child mortality rates when it interacts with public health spending. This means that the health effect of private health expenditure is strengthened by public health spending. Conditioning on the level of private health expenditure, the total effect of public health expenditure on child mortality reduction is slightly higher in absolute value than that of private health expenditure. The main policy implication that emerges from our results is the need to increase public health expenditure and support the effectiveness of private health expenditure. This additional fund should be allocated to some specific expenditure categories which have a very direct link with child and infant mortality rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the direct and interactive impacts of trade facilitation and institutions on sustainable economic growth (SEG) for 41 Sub‐Saharan African economies from 2005 to 2019. The study explores the components of trade facilitation focusing on costs, documents and days (exports and imports) with the aggregated index (TFindex) and institutions, including voice and accountability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, political stability and violence, and control of corruption, used on GDP per capita growth. The empirical evidence relies on the two‐step dynamic‐system generalized method of moments estimator, accounting for endogeneity, simultaneity, measurement error and reverse causality concerns. The study finds that facilitating trade procedures is a viable option for achieving SEG in the Sub‐Saharan Africa region. In addition, institutions driven by government effectiveness, political stability, and regulatory quality are boosters to SEG in the region. Lastly, the interactive impacts of trade facilitation and institutions positively predict the SEG. The study suggests that achieving efficient trading procedures and a sturdy institutional framework will enhance full exploration of the growth potential in SEG. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies that explore the relationship between financial innovation and the stability of money demand in Africa use the indirect measure of financial innovation. Previous studies on Nigeria also ignored total monetary aggregates (M3), despite its importance to monetary policy formulation and liquidity management. This paper contributes to the existing literature in two ways; first, we expand the generic money demand function to include the direct measure of financial innovation. Second, we test the model on Nigeria using a broader definition of money demand—narrow money (M1), broad money (M2) and total monetary aggregates (M3). We employ the Pesaran et al. (2001) autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach to cointegration in estimating the respective equations and find evidence of a long‐run relationship between money demand and financial innovation. The CUSUM and CUSUM‐of‐Squares tests reveal stable money demand across the three measures of money demand, which indicates that the inclusion of financial innovation has not altered the long‐run stability of money demand in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the status and determinants of gender disparities in financial inclusion using a sample of 4,466 individuals from the Finscope survey in Tanzania. The results provide evidence to support gender disparities in financial inclusion, mostly pronounced in formal savings (21.3%), formal accounts (10.6%) and mobile money accounts (9.4%). This is reflected in 17.1% less likelihood of female ownership of a formal savings account but a 2% higher likelihood to access formal credit. Finally, the paper documents evidence that gender disparities in financial inclusion are explained by lower levels of education, income and over‐dependence of women on men. The findings support gender mainstreaming in other sectors to increase employment and education for women to close the gender gap in financial access. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs the autoregressive distributed lag bound test and Nigerian time series data spanning 1980–2016 to provide empirical evidence on the educational financing—(youths) capacity development nexus via secondary school enrollment channel. The greatest factor that is pivotal to developing the capacity of Nigerian youths is investment in the quantity of education, and more significantly in its quality. The paper's main results show that budgetary allocation to education positively and significantly impacts secondary school enrollment, both in the long and short runs. Thererfore, the study recommends a substantial investment in the educational sector even if there has to be a trade‐off with other types of unproductive investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the effect of foreign institutional investors on banks' performance for the case of a developing African country. Previous studies on the impact of foreign institutional investors on banks' corporate governance and performance are inconclusive. The sample includes a unique dataset of Tunisian banks during the period 2005–2020. First, this study uses panel data regressions with fixed or random individual effects. Then it adopts the GMM system technique to account for potential endogeneity problems and the dynamic nature of the panel data. The results support a positive relationship between foreign institutional ownership and banks' performance as measured by Tobin's Q and Return On Equity. They indicate that banks with more foreign institutional ownership perform better. Foreign institutional investors are considered as good monitors. They facilitate the transfer of technology and the development of new products and services. These findings contribute to the literature by providing empirical evidence on the role of foreign institutional investors in the banking sector for an African emerging economy, where the studies on this matter are scarce. Policymakers and bank managers in emerging economies should attract foreign institutional investors to benefit from their experience and enhance bank performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effect of oil dependence on access to water and sanitation in 49 African countries, with data covering the period 1996–2015. Additionally, it investigates as a first attempt how the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) affects the relationship between oil dependence and access to water and sanitation. Using the two‐step system generalized method of moments, the results show that oil dependence is negatively associated with access to water and sanitation, both for the total population and urban and rural populations, respectively. Considering the difference between oil abundance and oil dependence, we find that both oil abundance and oil dependence are negatively associated with access to water and sanitation. Finally, the results illustrate that the EITI mitigates the negative effect of oil dependence on access to water and sanitation in resources rich African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether and how aid targeted at specific sub‐categories of economic infrastructure could assist the economies of 14 Economic Community of West African States to attract higher foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow via improvement in infrastructure in water supply and sanitation, energy, transport and ICT. By relying on the three stage least squares estimation technique that is able to account for endogeneity among structural equations, and utilizing data spanning 2005–2018, we found quite interesting results. First, aid targeted at infrastructure indicates a strong positive effect on the countries' infrastructure endowment. Second, there is robust evidence that aid promotes FDI, but not necessarily through the infrastructure channel. Targeted aid appears to exert a positive and direct knock‐on effect on FDI—apparently, because investors anticipate the positive effect that targeted aid is almost always inclined to produce on host countries' infrastructure endowment. Finally, aid allocation by Development Assistance Committee donors seems to have been primarily merit‐based, followed by weaker evidence for "need". The study recommends, inter alia, more need‐based aid allocation, particularly in economies where initial infrastructure endowment is minimal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper was to test the hypothesis of business cycle convergence in member countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) engaged in a monetary union process. We applied the concepts of beta‐convergence and sigma‐convergence to business cycles in the region in the period 1990–2018. Two analytical approaches suggested that during this period, the hypothesis of the convergence of business cycles cannot be rejected. The study highlighted the positive effect of trade intensity on the convergence of member countries' business cycles, in line with the theory of the endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria. These results imply that the initial asymmetric nature of the business cycles of ECOWAS countries does not represent an economic obstacle to the creation of a monetary union in the zone. This cyclical convergence is likely to accelerate with the intensification of trade resulting from the newly created union owing to deeper financial integration and the elimination of transaction costs and uncertainty associated with exchange rate volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lack of resources is often highlighted as the most important correlate of poor learning outcomes in developing countries. However, increasing school resources may not necessarily drive better learning if resources are not properly translated into learning outcomes. This paper investigates the efficient utilization of school resources to promote learning. It tries to better understand the extent to which efficiency plays a role in the relationship between school resources and learning outcomes. Applying the Data Envelopment Analysis methodology, an efficiency analysis is performed using the PASEC 2014 learning assessment that covers 10 francophone West and Central African countries. The results show that the efficiency of school resource utilization varies across countries and across schools within the same countries. The relationship between some of the key elements of school resources and learning is weak in the least efficient schools. This suggests that resources allocated to the least efficient schools should consider first addressing inefficiency issues. While efficiency drivers may vary depending on the country's specific contexts, findings show that student absenteeism, community engagement in school management, teaching time and school environment seem to play a role in school efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the new panel data structural gravity equations to examine the impact of China's Belt and Road Initiative in two dimensions, namely trade and migration on participating countries. By leveraging the Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood estimator with fixed‐effects to address both endogeneity and omitted variables, our results highlighted the importance of accounting for the regional economic integration in Africa, Europe, and Asia. The model assesses 65 countries, including 30 sub‐Saharan economies from the period 2000–2018. The findings of our study indicate that migration has a significant impact on the flow of bilateral trade. We also observed that the East African Community regional trade agreements have a significant negative effect on intra‐blocs trade under the Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, a comprehensive policy agenda needs to be developed to enhance migration and trade‐promoting policies among the participating economies of Africa to engender African growth from a win‐win perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives of this paper are to verify the linear and the non‐linear effects of infrastructural development on inclusive human development in Africa. The results of the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimations show a positive effect of infrastructural development on inclusive development across all the infrastructural development indexes employed, except the information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructural composite index, which presents an insignificant negative effect. Besides, a non‐linear effect of infrastructures on inclusive development is established across all the infrastructure indicators except for the ICT indicator. Negative thresholds for complementary policies are established for the African Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI) and the transport index whereas positive thresholds are apparent for the electricity index and the water and sanitation infrastructure index (WSS). Accordingly, in order to sustain the positive incidence of the AIDI and transport index on human development, complementary policies should be engaged to avoid an overall negative effect on human development when the indexes are, respectively, 31.12 and 25.56. In the same vein, the electricity index and WSSI should exceed critical levels of, respectively, 49.79 and 41.92, to engender an overall positive effect on inclusive human development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the role of education in reducing gender differentials in the Kenyan labor market. Using 2015/16 Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey, we estimate the logit and multinomial logit model. The paper employs instrumental variable technique to correct for potential endogeneity that arises when analyzing education and labor market outcomes. The results from both models show that being a woman reduces the chances of entering the labor market. We find that education yields positive effects in the labor market. On average, the difference between the marginal effect of education on employment probability between men and women is two percentage points, with the effect being higher for women. In the multinomial logit model, educated women are more likely to be employed in both the public sector and the informal sector, while in the private sector they are less likely to be employed. The implication of these findings is that policies should target education as a tool that can reduce gender differential in the labor market. This should be coupled with affirmative action that gives priority to women and minimizes preference for men in the labor market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the literature in an attempt to understand the determinants of the informal economy by investigating the relationship between financial development and the size of the informal economy using an unbalanced panel data of 41 sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1991–2015. The paper applies different techniques such as ordinary least squares, fixed effects, system generalized method of moments, and quantile regression. The results show that financial development and its square are important determinants of the informal economy in SSA. Across a number of specifications, we find that financial development reduces the size of the informal economy and that there is a U‐shaped relationship between financial development and the informal economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]