Search

Against the backdrop of a persistent food insecurity problem in Sudan which has prevailed since the mid 1970s, this paper makes use of the ordinary least squares (OLS) method of analysis to assess the performance of the national development strategies encapsulated in various medium-term plans and programs between 1970/71 and 1992/93 with respect to achieving their objective of national self sufficiency in food production through both vertical and horizontal expansion in food production. An exponential function is used to estimate the trends in area, production, and productivity for three major staple crops, namely sorghum, wheat, and millet using annual time series data covering the period 1970-95. The results provide clear evidence that vertical expansion alone does not pay off in terms of output. Instead, policies should focus more on improving agricultural productivity via the introduction of new varieties and the application of technological packages. These policies must then be reinforced by efforts to improve infrastructure, including health and education, to pave the way for a positive supply response at lower costs. Experience has shown that food security, as a prelude to industrial growth is not likely to be achieved if agricultural productivity is not increased. Face à l'insécurité alimentaire persistante qui a prévalu au Soudan depuis le milieu des années 70, cette étude utilise la méthode des moindres carrés ordinaires pour évaluer la performance des stratégies nationales de développment. Celles-ci sont consacrées par les différents plans et programmes à moyen terme appliqués entre 1970/71 et 1992/93 en vue de réaliser l'objectif d'autosuffisance alimentaire par l'expansion verticale et horizontale de la production alimentaire. Une fonction est utilisée pour estimer, par le biais de séries chronologiques annuelles couvr... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]