Search

AimsTo demonstrate that intentions predict long-term future levels of smoking, irrespective of level of past smoking experience. A growing body of research suggests that intentions about future smoking might play an important role in addition to the influence of past smoking experience on the likelihood of smoking in future.DesignUsing logistic regression analyses, we assessed the relationship between baseline smoking experience and a firm intention 'not to be smoking cigarettes 5 years from now' with four outcome measures of smoking at follow-up: 30-day smoking at a 3/4- and 5/6-year follow-up and current established smoking (self-described regular smokers or former smokers who had smoked in the past 30 days) at a 3/4- and 5/6-year follow-up.ParticipantsUS nationally representative samples of 12th graders who responded to the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey from the years 1976 to 1993, inclusive. For these panels, we linked stage of smoking and intentions at 12th grade to follow-up measures of smoking collected at 3/4 years after baseline and 5/6 years after baseline.FindingsAnalysis of 3/4-year follow-up data (weighted n = 4544) and 5/6-year follow-up data (weighted n = 3885) for both definitions of smoking outcome indicated that there was a dose-response relationship between levels of baseline smoking experience and the likelihood of future smoking. In addition, independent of baseline smoking experience, there was a statistically significant protective effect for a firm intention not to smoke in five year's time on future smoking behavior.ConclusionsThe findings suggest that evaluative studies of tobacco control policies and programs might usefully employ smoking uptake categories that incorporate smoking intentions as early indicators of outcome.

Paper examines ethnic differences in licit and illicit drug use among American 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students, with a particular focus on girls. Across ethnic groups, drug use is highest among Native American girls and lowest among black and Asian American girls. Trend data suggest that girls' and boys' drug use patterns are converging. (Contains 22 references, 4 tables, and 1 figure.)

Aims To examine non-medical use of prescription opioids ( NMUPO) patterns during the transition from adolescence to adulthood, and assess individual characteristics and other substance use behaviors associated with longitudinal patterns of NMUPO. Design Nationally representative samples of high school seniors in the United States (wave 1: modal age 18 years) were followed longitudinally across three biennial follow-up waves (waves 2, 3 and 4: modal ages 19/20, 21/22 and 23/24 years). Setting Data were collected via self-administered questionnaires to high school seniors and young adults. Participants The longitudinal sample consisted of 27 268 individuals in 30 cohorts (high school senior years 1976-2005) who participated in all four waves. Measurements Self-reports of NMUPO and other substance use behaviors. Findings Approximately 11.6% [95% confidence interval ( CI) = 11.2%, 12.0%] of the sample reported past-year NMUPO in at least one of the four waves. Among those who reported past-year NMUPO in at least one wave, 69.0% (67.6%, 70.4%), 20.5% (19.3%, 21.7%), 7.8% (7.1%, 8.6%) and 2.7% (2.3%, 3.1%) reported NMUPO at one, two, three and four waves, respectively. Several wave 1 variables were associated with greater odds of multiple waves of NMUPO and individuals who reported more waves of NMUPO had greater odds of other substance use behaviors. Conclusions Although most non-medical use of prescription opioids among 18-year-olds in the United States appears to be non-continuing, approximately one-third of the sample reporting non-medical use of prescription opioids appear to continue use beyond age 18 and have elevated odds of other substance use behaviors at ages 23/24. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]