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Background and Aims: Communication of personalised disease risk can motivate smoking cessation. We assessed whether routine implementation of this intervention by general practitioners (GPs) in England is cost‐effective or whether we need further research to better establish its effectiveness. Design Cost‐effectiveness analysis (CEA) with value of information (VoI) analysis from the UK National Health Service perspective, using GP communication of personalised disease risk on smoking cessation versus usual care. Setting: GP practices in England. Study population: Healthy smokers aged 35–60 years attending the GP practice. Measurements Effectiveness of GP communication of personalised disease risk on smoking cessation was estimated through systematic review and meta‐analysis. A Bayesian CEA was then performed using a lifetime Markov model on smokers aged 35–60 years that measured lifetime costs and quality‐adjusted life‐years (QALYs) assigned to the four diseases contributing the most to smoking‐related morbidity, mortality and costs: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, myocardial infarction and stroke. Costs and QALYs for each disease state were obtained from the literature. VoI analysis identified sources of uncertainty in the CEA and assessed how much would be worth investing in further research to reduce this uncertainty. Findings The meta‐analysis odds ratio for the effectiveness estimate of GP communication of personalised disease risk was 1.48 (95% credibility interval, 0.91–2.26), an absolute increase in smoking cessation rates of 3.84%. The probability of cost‐effectiveness ranged 89–94% depending on sex and age. VoI analysis indicated that: (i) uncertainty in the effectiveness of the intervention was the driver of the overall uncertainty in the CEA; and (ii) a research investment to reduce this uncertainty is justified if lower than £27.6 million (£7 per smoker). Conclusions: Evidence to date shows that, in England, incorporating disease risk communication into general practitioners' practices to motivate smoking cessation is likely to be cost‐effective compared with usual care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To establish the number of smokers in England who would be targeted by increasing the age of sale of cigarettes from 18 to 21 years and to assess the smoking and socio‐demographic profile of those smokers. Design and setting: Nationally representative cross‐sectional survey of adults in England conducted between January 2009 and July 2019. Participants: A total of 219 720 adults. Measurements All participants reported their current smoking status and socio‐demographic characteristics (i.e. age, gender, home ownership, social grade and ethnicity). Smokers reported motivation to quit, urges to smoke and the Heaviness of Smoking Index (HIS). Weighted prevalence statistics were calculated. Multinomial regression and logistic regression were used to assess differences in smoking characteristics among smokers and socio‐demographic characteristics relative to non‐smokers. Findings The prevalence of smoking between January 2009 and July 2019 was highest among those aged 21–30. In 2019, 15.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 12.8–18.8%] of 18–20‐year‐olds reported smoking, which is estimated to represent 364 000 individuals in England. Relative to smokers aged 18–20, older smokers (aged 21+) had a higher motivation to quit smoking [odds ratios (ORs) = 1.40–1.45 range] and higher nicotine dependency as measured by urges to smoke (ORs = 1.06–1.24 range) and HSI (ORs = 1.05–2.85 range). Compared with non‐smokers aged 18–20, smokers in this age group had lower odds of being female (OR = 0.89) and higher odds of being of white ethnicity (OR = 2.78) and from social grades C1–E (lower social grades) compared with AB (higher social grades) (OR = 1.19–1.83 range). Conclusion: Increasing the age of sale of cigarettes to 21 years in England would currently target approximately 364 000 lower dependent smokers from more disadvantaged backgrounds aged 18–20, who have less motivation to quit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aims: Association of electronic cigarette use and subsequent smoking has received considerable attention, although age of first use has not. This study tested differences in regular (e‐cigarettes, cigarettes) and ever (cigarettes) use between e‐cigarette user groups: early versus never users, late versus never users, early versus late users and effects of controlling for covariates. Design Prospective study with 12‐ and 24‐month follow‐up of e‐cigarette/cigarette ever/regular use with data from an intervention. Setting: Forty‐five schools in England (Staffordshire and Yorkshire). Participants: Never smokers (3289 13–14‐year‐olds) who were part of a cluster randomized controlled trial. Measurements The sample was divided into groups of e‐cigarette users: early users (at 13–14 years), late users (at 14–15 years) and never users (at 13–14 and 14–15 years). Dependent variables were self‐reported regular e‐cigarette and cigarette use and ever cigarette use at 15–16 years. Covariates were assessed. Findings Early and late users compared with never users were significantly more likely to be regular e‐cigarette users [early: odds ratio (OR) = 9.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 5.38, 16.49, P < 0.001; late: OR = 6.89, 95% CI = 4.11, 11.54, P < 0.001], ever cigarette users (early: OR = 7.96, 95% CI = 6.02, 10.53, P < 0.001; late: OR = 5.13, 95% CI = 3.85, 6.84, P < 0.001) and regular cigarette users (early: OR = 7.80, 95% CI = 3.99, 15.27, P < 0.001; late: OR = 4.34, 95% CI = 1.93, 9.77, P < 0.001) at age 15–16 years. Late users compared with early users had significantly lower rates of ever use of cigarettes at 15–16 years (OR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.35, 0.66, P < 0.001), although this difference was non‐significant at 12 months after first use of e‐cigarettes (OR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.64, 1.25, P = 0.498). Controlling for covariates did not change the findings. Conclusions: Adolescents in England who report using e‐cigarettes at age 13–14 years have higher rates of subsequently initiating cigarette use than adolescents who report using e‐cigarettes at age 14–15 years, a difference that may be attributable to a longer period of time to initiate cigarette use in former group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: At a time of declining smoking prevalence in England, it is useful to document any changes in the characteristics of smokers. This has implications for targeting tobacco control policies and interventions. This study compared the characteristics of smokers from 2008 to 2017 to assess changes in smoking and quitting patterns and socio‐demographic profile. Design and setting Analysis of annual trends in results from repeated cross‐sectional surveys of representative samples of the population in England from 2008 to 2017. Participants: The study included 208 813 adults aged 16+. Measurements Information was gathered on age, sex, social grade and region, cigarette consumption, cigarette dependence as measured by time to first cigarette of the day, daily smoking, smoking roll‐your‐own cigarettes, attempts to cut down, use of an e‐cigarette or nicotine replacement therapy, attempts to cut down or quit, use of support in quit attempts and whether the quit attempt was abrupt. Findings During the period, mean daily cigarette consumption [B = –0.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) = –0.33 to −0.27] and the time to first cigarette score decreased (B = –0.03, 95% CI = –0.03 to −0.02). The proportion of smokers attempting to cut down or quit decreased (odds ratio (OR) range = 0.96–0.97, 95% CI range = 0.95–0.97). Use of behavioural support [odds ratio (OR) = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.86–0.92] or no support decreased (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.96–0.99), while use of pharmacological support, including e‐cigarettes, increased (OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.02–1.05). There was no significant change in the difference in social grade between smokers and non‐smokers comparing 2008 with 2017. Changes in smoking and quitting behaviour were independent of changes in socio‐demographic characteristics. Conclusions: Between 2008 and 2017 in England, smokers appear to have become less dependent on cigarettes but less likely to try to quit or cut down. Of those who tried to quit, fewer used behavioural support and more used pharmacological support. The proportion from more disadvantaged backgrounds did not change significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To examine whether norms towards nicotine vaping product (NVP) use varied between Australia, Canada, England and the United States and by socio‐demographics, smoking and NVP status. Design Cross‐sectional data from the 2016 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Setting: Four countries with distinct regulatory policies relating to the sale and advertising of NVPs: Australia (most restrictive), Canada (restrictive), England and the United States (least restrictive). Participants: A total of 10900 adult (age 18+) current smokers, former smokers, or at least weekly NVP users. Respondents were from Australia (n = 1366), Canada (n = 3309), England (n = 3835) and the United States (n = 2390). Measurements Questions permitted the categorization of respondents as current smokers, former smokers, NVP users and socio‐demographic categories (sex, age, country, ethnicity, income and education). Further questions were asked regarding the frequency of exposure to NVPs in public, whether they had a partner or close friends who vaped and whether they believed society or those considered important to them approved of NVPs. Findings Adjusting for relevant covariates, compared with Australian respondents, those in England, Canada and the United States were more likely to report frequent exposure to NVPs in public (83.1%, 57.3% and 48.3%, respectively, compared to 19.8% in Australia; P < 0.0001), having a partner who vaped (13.8%, 7.1% and 7.7%, respectively, compared to 2.1% in Australia; P < 0.0001) and having close friend(s) who vaped (31.7%, 25.3%, 20.9%, respectively, compared to 10.0% in Australia; P < 0.0001). Compared with Australian respondents, respondents from England were more likely to report that society (27.6% compared to 12.3% in Australia; P < 0.0001) and people important to them approved of NVP use (28.9% compared to 14.3% in Australia; P < 0.0001). Conclusions: Norms towards nicotine vaping product (NVP) use appear to vary among countries with different regulatory contexts regarding sales and advertising. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To describe the methods of the 2016 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Smoking and Vaping (4CV) Survey, conducted in 2016 in Australia (AU), Canada (CA), England (EN) and the United States (US). Methods: The respondents were cigarette smokers, former smokers (quit within the previous 2 years), and at‐least‐weekly vapers, aged 18 years and older. Eligible cohort members from the ITC Four Country Survey (4C) were retained. New respondents were sampled by commercial firms from their panels. Where possible, ages 18–24 and vapers were oversampled. Data were collected online, and respondents were remunerated. Survey weights were calibrated to benchmarks from nationally representative surveys. Results: Response rates by country for new recruits once invited ranged from 15.2 to 49.6%. Sample sizes for smokers/former smokers were 1504 in AU, 3006 in CA, 3773 in EN and 2239 in the US. Sample sizes for additional vapers were 727 in CA, 551 in EN and 494 in the US. Conclusion: The International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey design and data collection methods allow analyses to examine prospectively the use of cigarettes and nicotine vaping products in jurisdictions with different regulatory policies. The effects on the sampling designs and response quality of recruiting the respondents from commercial panels are mitigated by the use of demographic and geographic quotas in sampling; by quality control measures; and by the construction of survey weights taking into account smoking/vaping status, sex, age, education and geography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims: Understanding whether and how far smokers' characteristics influence the effectiveness of treatment may be important for tailoring recommendations on cessation aids to those most likely to help the user achieve abstinence. This study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of commonly used smoking cessation aids and test whether their effectiveness differs according to cigarette addiction, socio‐economic status, age or sex. Design Correlational design using cross‐sectional survey data collected monthly between 2006 and 2018. Setting: England. Participants: A total of 18 929 adults (aged ≥ 16 years, 52.0% female) who had smoked within the previous 12 months and had made at least one quit attempt during that period. Measurements The outcome was self‐reported abstinence from quit date to survey. Independent variables were self‐reported use during the most recent quit attempt of: prescription nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), NRT over‐the‐counter, varenicline, bupropion, e‐cigarettes, face‐to‐face behavioural support, telephone support, written self‐help materials, websites and hypnotherapy. Moderators were cigarette addiction, social grade, age and sex. Findings After adjustment for covariates and use of other cessation aids, users of e‐cigarettes [odds ratio (OR) = 1.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.69–2.24] and varenicline (OR = 1.82, 95% CI = 1.51–2.21) had significantly higher odds of reporting abstinence than those who did not report use of these cessation aids. Use of prescription NRT was associated with increased abstinence in older (≥ 45 years) (OR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.25–2.00) but not younger (< 45 years) smokers (OR = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.85–1.42). Use of websites was associated with increased abstinence in smokers from lower (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.22–3.98) but not higher social grades (OR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.40–1.38). There was little evidence of benefits of using other cessation aids. Conclusions: Use of e‐cigarettes and varenicline are associated with higher abstinence rates following a quit attempt in England. Use of prescription of nicotine replacement therapy is also associated with higher abstinence rates, but only in older smokers, and use of websites only in smokers from lower socio‐economic status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To examine smoking prevalence, motivation and attempts to stop smoking, markers of cigarette addiction and success in quit attempts of people living in social housing in England compared with other housing tenures. Design and setting: A large cross‐sectional survey of a representative sample of the English population conducted between January 2015 and October 2017. Participants: A total of 57 522 adults (aged ≥ 16 years). Measurements Main outcomes were smoking status, number of cigarettes per day, time to first cigarette, exposure to smoking by others, motivation to stop smoking, past‐year quit attempts and use of cessation support. Covariates were age, sex, social grade, region and survey year. Findings Adults in social housing had twice the odds of being smokers than those living in other housing types [odds ratio (OR) = 2.09, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.98–2.22, P < 0.001]. Smokers in social housing consumed more cigarettes daily (adjusted mean difference = 1.09 cigarettes, 95% CI = 0.72–1.46, P < 0.001) and were more likely to smoke within 30 minutes of waking (OR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.48–1.79, P < 0.001) than smokers living in other housing types. Prevalence of high motivation to stop smoking was similar across housing types (OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.91–1.19, P = 0.553). The prevalence of quit attempts and use of cessation support within the past year were greater in social compared with other housing (OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.03–1.26, P = 0.011; OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.09–1.54, P = 0.003), but success in quitting was much lower (OR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.45–0.72, P < 0.001). Conclusions: In England, living in social housing is a major independent risk factor for smoking. These easily identifiable hot‐spots consist of smokers who are at least as motivated to stop as other smokers, but find it more difficult. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Background and aims: Little is known about the long‐term economic consequences of smoking during pregnancy. We estimated the association between smoking in pregnancy and the costs of delivering health‐care to infants and children in England, and investigated which aspects of care are the key drivers of these costs. Methods: We used Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) linked with Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) data in England from January 2003 to January 2015 in children with longitudinal data for at least 1, 5 and 10 years after birth. Poisson regression provided rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing health‐care episode rates between those exposed and not exposed to smoking during pregnancy. Linear regression was used to compare estimated costs between groups (£ sterling, 2015 prices) and generalized linear multivariable (GLM) models adjusted for potentially moderating factors. Results: A total of 93 152 singleton pregnancies with the required data were identified. Maternal smoking in pregnancy was associated with higher primary care, prescription and hospital in‐patient episode rates, but lower out‐patient visit and diagnostic test rates. Adjusting for year of birth, socio‐economic deprivation, parity, sex of child and delivery method showed that maternal smoking in pregnancy was associated with increased child health‐care costs at 1 year [average cost difference for children of smokers, β = £91.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) = £47.52–134.83 and 5 years of age (β = £221.80, 95% CI = £17.78–425.83], but not at 10 years of age (β = £365.94, 95% CI = –£192.72 to £924.60). Conclusion: In England, maternal smoking in pregnancy is associated with increased child health‐care costs over the first 5 years of life; these costs are driven primarily by greater hospital in‐patient care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims To assess the incidence of long-term smoking cessation as a function of age, gender, social grade and their interactions. Design and setting Cross-sectional surveys of population representative samples of smokers in England. Participants A total of 24 094 ever smokers (≥21 and ≤60 years of age) participating in household surveys between November 2006 and February 2011. Measurements The ratio of long-term (>1 year) ex-smokers to ever-smokers was calculated for each age. Regression analyses were used to model the association between age and quit ratio, with the change in quit ratio by year of age n years versus all years up to n-1 years, yielding an estimate of the quitting incidence at that age. Analyses were conducted for the entire sample and then for the sample stratified by gender and social grade, and interactions assessed between these variables. Findings A cubic trend was needed to fit the data. The estimated quitting incidence between ages 21 and 30 was 1.5% (95% CI: 1.0%-2.0%), between 31 and 50 it was 0.3% (95% CI: 0.2%-0.5%) and between 51 and 60 it was 1.2% (95% CI: 0.7%-1.7%). Age interacted with gender and social grade: women and smokers from higher social grades had a higher incidence of quitting than men and those from lower social grades specifically in young adulthood. Conclusions The incidence of smoking cessation in England appears to be greater in young and old adults compared with those in middle age. Women and higher social grade smokers show a greater incidence of quitting than men and those from lower social grades specifically in young adulthood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]