6 results on '"Vector Error Correction Model"'
Search Results
2. The Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Employment in Albania.
- Author
-
Cakrani, Edmira
- Subjects
EMPLOYMENT & education ,FOREIGN exchange rates ,ERROR correction (Information theory) ,GOVERNMENT policy - Abstract
Unemployment is a big economical and social issue for each country, in particular for Albania, which is a country that comes from a centralized system where the state ensured full employment. In the struggle of applying the transition to market economy, each government had to face the two-digit levels of unemployment. Because of this, the application of the right policies in order to decrease the level of unemployment has been in the centre of the program of each government in Albania. The objective of this paper is to show if the undervaluation or overvaluation of the real exchange rate can affect in a significant way the level of employment in Albania and that to answer the question, if the real exchange rate can be used as a political instrument for the reduction of the level of unemployment. There are relatively few works that study the impact of real exchange rate on the Albanian economy and in my knowledge there is not a previous work on employment and real exchange rate relationship in Albania, so this can be considered as the first study that attempt to assess this relationship. To evaluate the link between the real exchange rate and the level of employment the Johansen procedure and Vector Error Correction Term method is used. The result of the study demonstrates not statistically significant impact of real exchange rate on level of employment, suggesting that the increase of competition of the country through the real exchange rate doesn't improve the condition of the employment in Albania, so the Albanian government should implement other strategies to increase the level of employment in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2015
3. The Relationship between Banks, Stock Market and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Africa.
- Author
-
Chibvongodze, Meshel, Kwenda, Farai, and Sibanda, Mabutho
- Subjects
ECONOMIC development ,DEVELOPMENT economics ,INDUSTRIALIZATION ,QUALITY control - Abstract
This paper explores the relationship between financial development and economic growth in South Africa. It employs an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach and the Vector Error Correction Model to examine this relationship. The starting point of the analysis emanates from the works of Goldsmith (1969) who set out to chart the evolution of financial structures as economies grow and develop and to establish the impact financial development has on growth. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag results show the existence of a steady relationship between financial development indicators and economic growth and the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. The Vector Error Correction Model approach has shown a long-run bidirectional relationship from financial development to economic growth, and the banking sector is the main driver for economic growth. The study indicates that the South African financial system plays an important role in the growth of the economy and the variables under study boosts the growth of the economy. The paper thus, contributes to the discussion on the linkages between financial development and economic growth in a growing economy such as South Africa, which is the most developed country with the most advanced financial sector in sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
4. Re-examining Causal Relationship between Dividend Policies and Commercial Bank Performance: Evidence from 30 Sub-Saharan Africa Countries
- Author
-
Odunayo Magret Olarewaju
- Subjects
Dividend policy ,Sub-Saharan Africa ,Commercial banks ,Causality test ,Vector Error Correction Model ,lcsh:Business ,lcsh:HF5001-6182 - Abstract
This paper aims to test for causality between two dividend policies (dividend payout and dividend reinvestment plans) and return on equity as a measure of financial performance. Dividend policies issues have been continually debated around the world with mixed results, and yet to date, no definite conclusions have been reached. The study used 250 commercial banks from 30 SSA countries over the period between 2006 and 2015 to run long-run causality tests. The results from the block exogeneity Wald test from the panel vector error correction model, and the pairwise Granger causality test shows that there is a unidirectional causality between return on equity and dividend payout ratio. This implies no causality between dividend payout ratio and banks’ return on equity over the study period. Hence, we conclude that the widely adopted model for the payment of dividends in the SSA banking market is a win-lose game, as there is no causality between dividend payment and bank performance. As such, we recommend that other dividend policies that can minimize future financing costs, increase bank assets, and improve the future growth prospects of the region be explored.
- Published
- 2018
5. The Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Economic Growth in Albania.
- Author
-
Cakrani, Edmira
- Subjects
FOREIGN exchange rates ,ECONOMIC development ,EXPORT brokers ,BALANCE of payments - Abstract
Real exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially in today's conditions of integration processes, the removal of trade barriers and increasing direct competition between countries. Real exchange rate affects economy, through its impact on key economic variables, such as employment, inflation and especially economic growth. Changes in the real exchange rate affect the competitiveness of domestic products, resulting in increased exports or imports, affecting trade balance e growth. Also changes in the real exchange rate affect investment and capital accumulation, which are directly linked with economic growth. The aim of this paper is to study the possible impact of the real exchange rate on economic growth in Albania, to answer the question whether the real exchange rate can be used as an instrument of policy. Johansen cointegration method and Vector Error Correction Model is used in this paper to identify the longterm and short-term impact of real exchange rate on economic growth in Albania. Results of the study indicate that the real exchange rate has no significant impact on the Albanian economy, suggesting that policies to promote economic growth, both in the short and long term should not rely on this variable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
6. The Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Employment in Albania
- Author
-
Edmira Cakrani
- Subjects
undervaluation ,overvaluation ,Johansen procedure ,Vector Error Correction Model ,lcsh:Business ,lcsh:HF5001-6182 - Abstract
Unemployment is a big economical and social issue for each country, in particular for Albania, which is a country that comes from a centralized system where the state ensured full employment. In the struggle of applying the transition to market economy, each government had to face the two-digit levels of unemployment. Because of this, the application of the right policies in order to decrease the level of unemployment has been in the centre of the program of each government in Albania. The objective of this paper is to show if the undervaluation or overvaluation of the real exchange rate can affect in a significant way the level of employment in Albania and that to answer the question, if the real exchange rate can be used as a political instrument for the reduction of the level of unemployment. There are relatively few works that study the impact of real exchange rate on the Albanian economy and in my knowledge there is not a previous work on employment and real exchange rate relationship in Albania, so this can be considered as the first study that attempt to assess this relationship. To evaluate the link between the real exchange rate and the level of employment the Johansen procedure and Vector Error Correction Term method is used. The result of the study demonstrates not statistically significant impact of real exchange rate on level of employment, suggesting that the increase of competition of the country through the real exchange rate doesn’t improve the condition of the employment in Albania, so the Albanian government should implement other strategies to increase the level of employment in the country.
- Published
- 2015
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