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Real-time flood forecasting is crucial for early flood warnings. It relies on real-time hydrological and meteorological data. Satellite Precipitation Products offer real-time global precipitation estimates and have emerged as a suitable option for rainfall input in flood forecasting models. This study first compared the daily Satellite Precipitation Products of Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) with observed rainfall data of India Meteorological Department from the year 2001 to 2009 using contingency tests. Rainfall data of IMERG are used to build four Real-time flood forecasting models based on machine learning: feedforward neural network (FFNN), extreme learning machine (ELM), wavelet-based feedforward neural network, and wavelet-based extreme learning machine. The models consider the IMERG gridded data at 1 h resolution as input to predict water level at Hayaghat gauging station of Bagmati River with lead times from 1 h to 10 days. These models have been trained and tested with the observed water level data. The model performance was also evaluated using various statistical criteria. Results showed good correlation between IMERG and observed data with a probability of detection of 85.42%. Overall, wavelet-based models outperformed their singular counterparts. Among the singular models, the FFNN model performed better than ELM with satisfactory predictions up to 5 days of lead time. For a 7 days lead time, only wavelet-based-FFNN performs well, whereas none of the models produced satisfactory results for 10 days lead time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones that originate from the Indian Ocean affect the Indian Sub-Continent. Heavy rainfall and flooding occur because of these cyclones. South Odisha was affected by Cyclonic Storm Daye in September 2018 and Cyclonic Storm Titli was occurred in August affecting Andhra Pradesh and Odisha as well. The Eastern portion of India was affected by the Cyclonic Storm Fani in April 2019. In May 2020, West Bengal was affected by the Amphan which is a Super Cyclonic Storm and in the same year Tamil Nadu was affected by the very severe Cyclonic Storm Nivar in November 2020. These are just a few of the notable cyclonic events in the Indian Sub-Continent. These cyclonic events cause a dramatic change in a very short time from dry soil to exceptional flooding. In this proposed work, we are attempting to create an observations-driven prediction model to quantify the soil moisture variations daily, predict county-based meteorology and evaluate the cause of cyclones and heavy rainfall in certain areas of India. In our work, we applied a deep learning-based methodology to predict soil moisture. For the prediction model, we fused Feed Forward Neural Networks with the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model and present the prediction results. We have used climatic as well as environmental data published by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Warning from 2011. The collected data is time-series data. Comparisons and the relationship that exists between soil moisture and meteorological data are made and analyzed. The soil moisture of the South Indian states Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are predicted from weather data using a hybrid deep learning model. The evaluations of the proposed work using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and R-squared (R2) against Non-hybrid Neural Network models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Convolutional Neural Networks, and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) models is analyzes where our model has given better results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The advancements in artificial intelligence play a significant role in solving the problems of researchers and engineers to develop prediction models with higher accuracy over the analytical and numerical models. The wavelet ensemble artificial intelligence model has a widespread application in forecasting hydrological datasets. The signal decomposition type, level and the mother wavelet affect the model performance in wavelet-based approaches. The present analysis focuses on studying the significance of the level and type of decomposition in wavelet transform for pre-processing the input variables to predict the target variable. In this work, to forecast seasonal suspended sediment load of the Kallada River basin in Kerala, two types of decomposition with decomposition levels ranging from 2 to 7 were adopted using seasonal flow data (wet and dry seasons). To rank the WANN models, compromise programming was adopted using the results based on statistical performance indicators and compared with the performance of the conventional FFNN model. From the accuracy assessment and ranking, type-2 with 5th level decomposition can capture the actual periodicity of the signal and predict the suspended sediment load with higher accuracy. It also shows the capability to predict the extreme events of time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]