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Between the 1950s and 1980s, U.S. space sector activities were government-driven, government-sponsored, government-managed, and assisted by the industry-sector. Awareness of non-governmental space activities originated in the 1980s and gained prominence in the early 2000s with the founding of well-funded private companies. This paper takes an organizational evolution perspective to refine what is meant by "commercial" space markets and activities and compares the results to previous discussions offered by space community authors. From an organization theory perspective, the three primary forces of the evolution change model (variation, selection, and retention) provide a framework for renewed commercial space activity discussions. Together, the strength of these three forces can indicate how "commercial" a market is. Two case examples are presented to illustrate application of this framework: the U.S. space race era activities during the 1960s, and the current space tourism market. Despite competitions for various contracts awarded to industry-sector firms, the Apollo program was clearly government-driven, and was not "commercial" to any significant extent. The current space tourism market is clearly considered "commercial," but with qualifications. Conclusions from this review include the appropriate levels of analysis to discuss space market characteristics, a comparative analysis of the "commercial" activities of the U.S. space race era and the current space tourism, the inference of proxies for estimating the strength of the three evolution model forces, and a caution about the accuracy of "commercial" market forecasts. • This paper uses an evolution change mechanism lens to estimate the degree that space sectors are considered "commercial". • Identification of appropriate levels of analysis for discussion of commercial space markets. • Comparison of space race era activities in the United States and current space tourism activities. • U.S. space race activities are best characterized by the teleologic change motor. • Current space tourism activities are best characterized by the evolution (variation, selection, retention) change motor. • Prior studies of "commercial" space activities are reviewed in the context of the evolution organization change mechanism. • Inference of independent variables to estimate evolution model force strength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: To stimulate the commercial space transportation industry, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is facilitating the demonstration of Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by private-sector companies. In 2006, NASA entered into funded agreements with two such companies to share NASA''s $500 million investment, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) and Rocketplane Kistler (RpK), each of which proposed to obtain the additional private financing needed to complete its flight demonstrations. In 2007, NASA terminated the agreement with RpK because it failed to meet a series of technical and financial milestones which were necessary to receive the incremental NASA payments. In 2008, NASA conducted another competition for the remaining $170 million of NASA funding and entered into a funded agreement with Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC). This paper provides an overview of the COTS approach of SpaceX and OSC and the status of their efforts to develop reliable and cost-effective commercial transportation to serve the LEO marketplace. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]