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Between the 1950s and 1980s, U.S. space sector activities were government-driven, government-sponsored, government-managed, and assisted by the industry-sector. Awareness of non-governmental space activities originated in the 1980s and gained prominence in the early 2000s with the founding of well-funded private companies. This paper takes an organizational evolution perspective to refine what is meant by "commercial" space markets and activities and compares the results to previous discussions offered by space community authors. From an organization theory perspective, the three primary forces of the evolution change model (variation, selection, and retention) provide a framework for renewed commercial space activity discussions. Together, the strength of these three forces can indicate how "commercial" a market is. Two case examples are presented to illustrate application of this framework: the U.S. space race era activities during the 1960s, and the current space tourism market. Despite competitions for various contracts awarded to industry-sector firms, the Apollo program was clearly government-driven, and was not "commercial" to any significant extent. The current space tourism market is clearly considered "commercial," but with qualifications. Conclusions from this review include the appropriate levels of analysis to discuss space market characteristics, a comparative analysis of the "commercial" activities of the U.S. space race era and the current space tourism, the inference of proxies for estimating the strength of the three evolution model forces, and a caution about the accuracy of "commercial" market forecasts. • This paper uses an evolution change mechanism lens to estimate the degree that space sectors are considered "commercial". • Identification of appropriate levels of analysis for discussion of commercial space markets. • Comparison of space race era activities in the United States and current space tourism activities. • U.S. space race activities are best characterized by the teleologic change motor. • Current space tourism activities are best characterized by the evolution (variation, selection, retention) change motor. • Prior studies of "commercial" space activities are reviewed in the context of the evolution organization change mechanism. • Inference of independent variables to estimate evolution model force strength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the future U.S. demand for streamlined space tourism by showing the missions and factors impacting traveler choices with machine learning. Space tourism is growing and is expected to become available to the masses soon. While private companies need to better understand the demand for space tourism to customize their services, transportation agencies require guidance to support fund management related to commercial space exploration. This work analyzes the three most prominent missions for streamlined space tourism (i.e., suborbital, orbital, and space tourism around the moon) and their selection determinants (i.e., price, safety, training, number of passengers, take-off locations, among other decision-maker factors). A stated preference experiment is constructed to collect data that is analyzed using machine learning. Results provide valuable insights into the mixed opinions of Americans with respect to space tourism, their mission preferences, and risk considerations. • Space tourism serves a niche of high-income travelers. • We investigate the future U.S. demand if space tourism is available to the masses. • A stated preference experiment is constructed to collect data from Americans. • The collected dataset is analyzed using machine learning paradigms. • Results unveil the mission and traveler factors impacting space tourism choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]