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Abstract: According to all available findings at international level, the Kessler syndrome, increase of the number of space debris in Low Earth Orbits due to mutual collisions, appears now to be a fact, triggered mainly by several major break-ups in orbit which occurred since 2007. The time may have come to study how to clean this fundamentally useful orbital region in an active way. CNES has studied potential solutions for more than 12 years! The paper aims at reviewing the current status of these activities. The high level requirements are fundamental, and have to be properly justified. The working basis, as confirmed through IADC studies consists in the removal of 5–10 integer objects from the overcrowded orbits, spent upper stages or old satellites, as identified by NASA. The logic of CNES activities consider a stepped approach aiming at progressively gaining the required Technological Readiness Level on the features required for Active Debris Removal which have not yet been demonstrated in orbit. The rendezvous with a non-cooperative, un-prepared, tumbling debris is essential. Following maturation gained with Research and Technology programs, a set of small orbital demonstrators could enable a confidence high enough to perform a full end to end demonstration performing the de-orbiting of a large debris and paving the way for the development of a first generation operational de-orbiter. The internal CNES studies, led together by the Toulouse Space Centre and the Paris Launcher Directorate, have started in 2008 and led to a detailed System Requirements Document used for the Industrial studies. Three industrial teams did work under CNES contract during 2011, led by Thales Alenia Space, Bertin Technologies and Astrium Space Transportation, with numerous sub-contractors. Their approaches were very rich, complementary, and innovative. The second phase of studies began mid-2012. Some key questions nevertheless have to be resolved, and correspond generally to current IADC actions: The casualty risk associated to a “passive” de-orbitation is of paramount importance, major driver between passive and active re-entry, The residual movement of debris is crucial for the interfacing phase, whichever the solution is, The debris physical state in orbit is a major question, Some solutions increase the collision risk, but for a limited time period; we may not have yet the appropriate tools. The paper gives a status of where we stand, of the cooperation with the international partners, and raises the questions which remain open and have to be dealt with in the coming months. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper summarizes results from two postmission disposal (PMD) parametric analyses based on the high fidelity NASA orbital debris evolutionary model LEGEND. The first analysis includes a non-mitigation reference scenario and four test scenarios, where the mission lifetimes of spacecraft are set to 5, 10, 20, and 30years, respectively, before they are moved to the 25-year decay orbits. The comparison among the five scenarios quantifies how a prolonged spacecraft mission lifetime decreases the effectiveness of the 25-year decay rule in the low Earth orbit region (LEO). The second analysis includes three 25-year decay PMD scenarios where the mission lifetimes of spacecraft are set to 5years but with disposal success rates set to 50%, 70%, and 90%, respectively. It illustrates how the PMD success rate impacts the long-term debris environment. The conclusion of this paper is that a prolonged spacecraft mission lifetime and a lower PMD success rate can have noticeable negative impact on the debris environment in the long run. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Orbital debris poses a significant threat to spacecraft health and safety. Recent events such as China''s anti-satellite test and the Breeze-M rocket explosion have led to an even greater awareness and concern in the satellite community. Therefore, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has established requirements that routine conjunction assessment screening shall be performed for all maneuverable spacecraft having perigees <2000km or within 200km of geosynchronous altitude. NASA''s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has developed an operational collision risk assessment process to protect NASA''s high-value unmanned (robotic) assets that has been in use since January 2005. This paper provides an overview of the NASA robotic conjunction assessment process, including descriptions of the new tools developed to analyze close approach data and of the risk mitigation strategies employed. In addition, statistical data describing the number of conjunctions experienced are presented. A debris avoidance maneuver performed by Aura in June of 2008 is described in detail to illustrate the process. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario where, at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed using a selection criterion based on the mass and collision probability of each object, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: By using electrodynamic drag to greatly increase the orbital decay rate, an electrodynamic space tether can remove spent or dysfunctional spacecraft from low Earth orbit (LEO) rapidly and safely. Moreover, the low mass requirements of such tether devices make them highly advantageous compared to conventional rocket-based de-orbit systems. However, a tether system is much more vulnerable to space debris impacts than a typical spacecraft and its design must be proved to be safe up to a certain confidence level before being adopted for potential applications. To assess space debris related concerns, in March 2001 a new task (Action Item 19.1) on the “Potential Benefits and Risks of Using Electrodynamic Tethers for End-of-life De-orbit of LEO Spacecraft” was defined by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). Two tests were proposed to compute the fatal impact rate of meteoroids and orbital debris on space tethers in circular orbits, at different altitudes and inclinations, as a function of the tether diameter to assess the survival probability of an electrodynamic tether system during typical de-orbiting missions. IADC members from three agencies, the Italian Space Agency (ASI), the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), participated in the study and different computational approaches were specifically developed within the framework of the IADC task. This paper summarizes the content of the IADC AI 19.1 Final Report. In particular, it introduces the potential benefits and risks of using tethers in space, it describes the assumptions made in the study plan, it compares and discusses the results obtained by ASI, JAXA and NASA for the two tests proposed. Some general conclusions and recommendations are finally extrapolated from this massive and intensive piece of research. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The intentional break-up of the Fengyun-1C spacecraft on 11 January 2007 via a hypervelocity collision with a ballistic object created the most severe artificial debris cloud in Earth orbit since the beginning of space exploration. More than 2000 debris of the order of 10cm or greater in size have been identified by the US Space Surveillance Network. The majority of these debris reside in long-lived orbits. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has conducted a thorough examination of the nature of the Fengyun-1C debris cloud, using Space Surveillance Network (SSN) data for larger debris and special Haystack radar observations for smaller debris. These data have been compared with the NASA standard satellite break-up model for collisions, and the results are presented in this paper. The orbital longevity of the debris have also been evaluated for both small and large debris. The consequent long-term spatial density effects on the low Earth orbit regime and the potential effect of the debris cloud on the growth of the near-Earth satellite population have been addressed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Modeling the future orbital debris environment is a difficult task. In addition to making reasonable assumptions on key parameters such as future launch traffic and solar activity projections, one needs to rely on a Monte Carlo approach to evaluate potential future on-orbit explosions and collisions. Even with the same input parameters, the outcome of the projected debris populations could vary significantly from one Monte Carlo run to the next. A common approach to assess the growth of future debris populations is to evaluate the average of multiple Monte Carlo runs. The number of runs is typically between 10 and 30, depending on the speed of the simulation program and the available computer resources. However, the characteristics of the future debris populations may not be fully unveiled by a limited number of Monte Carlo simulations. The main objective of this paper is to analyze results from 200 Monte Carlo simulations of the future debris environment, using the NASA long-term orbital debris evolutionary model LEGEND. The projected debris populations in terms of the mean, median, standard deviation, standard error of the mean, and the distribution of the debris populations at the end of the 100-year projection are analyzed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Skybridge system is a worldwide ATM broadband communication system based on a 80 low Earth orbit satellite constellation. The minimization of space debris generation has been taken into account very early in the frame of this program.The objectives are, first to identify the contribution of Skybridge to the space debris generation and secondly to assess the risk due to space debris for the whole system. This paper summarizes the approach of the Skybridge program for debris assessment and mitigation.As no international regulation dealing with this subject exists, the analysis is based on the existing NASA 1740 Safety Standard. The methodology and the software presented in this document were applied to demonstrate the compliance of Skybridge with the requirements. In addition the new CNES standard was used to derive additional requirements.The first point deals with the production of space debris in the various mission phases: this concerns debris released during launch, constellation deployment and mission operations. Besides these normal operations, space debris can also be generated through material ageing or in case of accidents such as explosion due to on-board stored energy or collision with other orbiting objects.In the second part the collision risk is analyzed: the probability of collision with the large cataloged objects is determined. Concerning the smaller debris, the flux models give the probability of impact per surface unit: the analysis identifies components most vulnerable to debris impact together with their shielding and gives the associated probability of failure taking into account the architecture of the satellite.The problem of the post-mission disposal procedure is then discussed in the third part. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]