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The evaluation of penetration effectiveness of ballistic missiles under the cover of decoys is an important issue. The missile penetration probability is used as an evaluation index of penetration effectiveness. Based on the different decoy jamming and anti-missile interception strategy, the penetration effectiveness models of single and multiple ballistic missiles are built. Considering the effect of decoys, the penetration effectiveness of multiple ballistic missiles is quantitatively studied. At last, the results of a sample are analyzed, and the models are verified, from which some valuable conclusions are got. The research result has a certain reference value to the simulation and evaluation of penetration ability of ballistic missile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]