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Objectives Some older adults less interested in exercise may still meet the walking time of 30 minutes or more per day that is required to maintain and improve their health. This study aimed to clarify the characteristics of those who walk for 30 minutes or more per day stratified by the exercise stage of change.Methods This cross-sectional study used a self-administered mail survey conducted by the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES) in 2019. There were 45,939 participants, aged 65 years or above, who were not certified as requiring long-term care and who resided in 62 municipalities in 24 prefectures. The measures included daily walking time, stage of change for exercise (20 minutes or more once a week), and factors related to physical activities (eight demographic and biological; three psychological, cognitive, and emotional; eight behavioral; 40 social and cultural; and three environmental factors). The analysis was stratified into three groups according to the transformation stages: 1) pre-contemplation, 2) contemplation/preparation, and 3) action/maintenance. Poisson regression analysis was conducted with the dependent variable as walking time, the independent variables as physical activity factors, and the covariates as all eight demographic and biological factors.Results Of the 24,146 survey respondents (52.6% response rate), 18,464 were included in the analysis. Surveys with missing items that were important for the analysis and patients who needed care and assistance were excluded. The factors that were significantly associated with walking 30 minutes or more per day only in the pre-contemplation stage, or only in the precontemplation and the contemplation/preparation stages, were three demographic and biological (married; age 80 years or above and non-independence of instrumental activities of daily living were negatively associated), two behavioral (going out at least once a week and watching sports on TV or the Internet), and six social and cultural factors (provision of instrumental support, frequency of meeting with friends more than once a week, participation in the neighborhood association, high reciprocity, reading habits; playing Go was negatively associated).Conclusions Among the demographic and biological factors, and the behavioral, social, and cultural factors, 11 items were found to be associated with walking 30 minutes or more per day only in the pre-contemplation stage, or only in the precontemplation and contemplation/preparation stages. To promote walking even in the lower stages of change, it may be useful to promote exchanges with others, rather than focusing predominantly on physical activities.

Objectives This study aimed to investigate whether health inequalities among communities would be reduced by intensively enhancing the "Kayoinoba" program in model communities where many high-risk, older adults live.Methods Kobe City and the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study created a mail survey for older adults in 78 communities (community ≈ junior high school district) to conduct community diagnosis. Sixteen communities showed poor values along multiple dimensions of risk and required priority measures. From 2014 to 2019, we designated these 16 communities as model communities. Then, municipal officials and researchers cooperated to support the establishment and management of "Kayoinoba." By using four-waves of mail survey data (in 2011, 2013, 2016, and 2019 with n=8,872, 10,572, 10,063, and 5,759, respectively), secular transitions of nine intermediate outcome indicators (three=social participation, two=social network, and four=social support) and five health outcome indicators (physical function, malnutrition, oral function, cognitive function, and depressive symptoms) were compared between model (n=16) and non-model (n=62) communities via multilevel mixed-effects linear regression analysis.Results In the 2011 and 2013 surveys, model communities showed poor value compared to the non-model communities in 13 of the 14 indicators. A significant interaction between the year and model/non-model communities was confirmed for four intermediate outcome indicators (sports and hobby group participation, number of friends met, and providing emotional support) and three health outcome indicators (oral function, cognitive function, and depressive symptoms). The differences were reduced or eliminated in the 2016 and 2019 surveys. For example, hobby group participation in 2011 was 29.7% vs. 35.0% in model vs. non-model communities; the difference narrowed to 35.2% vs. 36.1% (P=0.008). Similarly, providing emotional support increased from 83.9% vs. 87.0% to 93.3% vs. 93.3% (P=0.007). Depressive symptoms decreased from 31.4% vs. 27.2% to 18.6% vs. 20.3% (P0.001).Conclusions Promoting community gathering places "Kayoinoba" for six years in communities where many high-risk older adults live may foster social participation, networking, and support and may help reduce health inequalities among communities.

Objectives In this study, we aim to clarify the optimal threshold for the frequency of volunteer group participation among older people aged 65 years and above, which is expected to prevent the risk of developing depression.Methods We utilized longitudinal data from 2013 to 2016, collated by the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study for people aged ≥65 years living in 24 municipalities and not certified as requiring long-term care. In addition, those who were not depressed in 2013 (≥5 points on the Geriatric Depression Scale-15) were followed up for 3 years and classified according to the frequency of participation in the volunteer group in 2013 (≥once per year, ≥once per month, ≥once per week). The odds ratio (OR) of being newly depressed in 2016 was determined using the propensity score matching method and t-test.Results The frequency of volunteer group participation for 9,722 (25.0%), 6,026 (15.5%), and 2,735 (7.0%) older individuals was≥once per year, once per month, and once per week, respectively. A comparison of the balanced attributes of the volunteer group participation with those of the non-participation group using propensity scores revealed that the risk of developing depressive symptoms was significantly lower in the former compared with the latter for the frequency of ≥once per month and OR of 0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.72, 0.93). The ORs were 0.92 (0.83, 1.02) and 0.82 (0.68, 1.00) for the ≥once per year and once per week groups, respectively.Conclusion Older people's participation in a volunteer group ≥once per month was effective in reducing the risk of developing depressive symptoms after 3 years. This suggests that increasing the opportunities and community places where older people can be involved as volunteers even once a month may be employed as an effective measure to prevent depression.

Objectives This study aims to evaluate the differences in the cumulative benefit costs of public long-term care [LTC] insurance services, using a risk assessment scale score, which predicts incident functional disability among older people.Methods A baseline survey was conducted in 2010 involving individuals aged 65 and above from 12 municipalities in Japan who were not eligible for public LTC insurance benefits (response rate: 64.7%). Using public LTC claim records, we followed LTC service costs among 46,616 individuals over a period of about six years (up to 76 months). We used risk assessment scales to assess incident functional disability (0-48). We adopted a classical linear regression model, Tobit regression model, and linear regression with multiple imputation for missing values.Results Overall, 7,348 (15.8%) of the participants had used LTC services during the follow-up period. The risk assessment score for incident functional disability was positively associated with the cumulative costs of LTC services per person, length of usage period of LTC services, and proportion of people certified for long-term care/support need and for over long-term care level 2. After adjusting for confounding variables, the six-year cumulative costs of LTC services were around JPY 31.6 thousand higher per point of risk score (95% confidence interval [CI]: 28.3 to 35.0). The costs were around JPY 8.9 thousand (95%CI: 6.5 to 11.3)higher in the low score group (risk score ≤ 16), and JPY 75.3 thousand (95%CI: 67.4 to 83.1) higher in the high score group (risk score ≥ 17). When we adopted other estimated models, the major results and trends were not largely different.Conclusions In this study, the risk assessment scale score could estimate subsequent LTC benefit costs. Community interventions to improve and maintain variable aspects of risk assessment scores may help contribute to a reduction in public LTC benefits within municipalities.

Objectives: This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of a walking point project with incentives for increasing walking time, preventing the decline of physical function and worsening depression among older adults. Methods: We used data from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study, which included subjects aged ≥65 years who lived in Yokohama City in 2013 and 2016. We obtained information on the subjects' participation in the "Yokohama Walking Point (YWP)," a program launched by Yokohama City in 2014, from the 2016 survey data. We excluded individuals with missing data for sex, age, walking time per day (30, 30-59, 60-89, or ≥90 min/day), physical function (5 physical function category items on the Kihon Checklist), depression (15-item Geriatric Depression Scale), and participation status in the YWP. We used data from 4,509 eligible respondents. Changes in walking time, physical function, and depression were designated as dependent variables, and participation status in the YWP was designated as the independent variable in the multiple regression analysis with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), after adjusting for demographic variables, socioeconomic status, health status, and behavior. Results: Among the total subjects, 758 (16.8%) participated in the YWP. The IPTW method showed that participants in the YWP had significantly higher walking times (B=3.61, 95% CI: 1.04, 6.17), less decline in physical function, and less depression (B=-0.13, 95% CI: -0.23, -0.03; B=-0.21, 95% CI: -0.42, -0.01) than those who did not participate in the YWP. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the YWP, with incentives, effectively increased walking time and prevented worsening of physical function and depression among older adults. The municipality's health point project, based on the number of steps, is a useful population approach for promoting health among older adults.

Objectives Dementia prevention is an important issue in the current super-aging society. Previous studies have shown a low risk of dementia in older adults who have hobbies, especially gardening, tourism, and those that are sports-based. However, it is unclear whether the effect of dementia prevention differs according to the specific type and number of hobbies. This study aims to clarify the relationship of dementia onset with the type and number of hobbies practiced by a person.Methods This prospective cohort study conducted between 2010 and 2016 by the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study surveyed 56,624 functionally independent individuals aged 65 years and over who had non-missing information on age and gender. A total of 49,705 participants who provided valid answers to the question regarding hobbies, and were followed for 365 days or more, were analyzed. The primary outcome of this study was dementia, which was assessed by the nationally standardized dementia scale proposed by the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare of Japan. Explanatory variables were specific types of hobbies practiced by 5% or more of older adults (males: 14 types and females: 11 types) and the number of hobbies an individual engaged in (0~5 types or more). The covariates were basic characteristics, diseases, health behavior, social support, psychology/cognition, and instrumental activities of daily living. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for a total of 22 variables.Results In total, 4,758 patients (9.6%) developed dementia during the follow-up period. The following hobbies were related to a lower risk of developing incident dementia: a) both in males and females, ground golf (HR: males, 0.80; females, 0.80) and travel (males, 0.80; females, 0.76); b) only in males, golf (0.61), use of a personal computer (0.65), fishing (0.81), and photo shooting (0.83); and c) only in females, handicrafts (0.73), and gardening (0.85). A significant trend was observed indicating that the risk of dementia was lower as the number of hobbies increased for both males and females (males, 0.84; females, 0.78).Conclusion The results of this study suggest that both male and female older adults who engaged in ground golf and travel as a hobby had a lower risk of developing dementia, and the risk decreased as the number of hobbies increased. Providing an environment in which older adults can engage in various hobbies that are associated with less risk of developing dementia, may be an effective measure for preventing dementia.

Objectives This study aimed to develop risk assessment scales for predicting the incidence of Needed Support/Long-Term Care certification, by aggregating data from the Kihon Checklist, medical assessments, and long-term care insurance certification during a follow-up period (a maximum of 4 years and 2 months) conducted in a municipality.Methods This retrospective cohort study included 72,127 older adults aged 65 years or older living in K City (an ordinance-designated city) who responded to the Kihon Checklist in 2011. We linked their medical assessment data (examined/unexamined, blood pressure, and five blood biochemical items) from 2011 and information on the incidence of long-term care insurance certification from 2011 to 2015 to the Kihon Checklist data (the 12 essential items and seven optional items from the Needs Survey). We constructed four Cox proportional hazards models as follows: 1) age, sex, and the Needs Survey's 12 essential items; 2) model 1 plus seven optional items; 3) model 2 plus examined/unexamined at medical assessment; and 4) model 3 plus blood pressure and five blood biochemical items, as independent variables. Recent requirement for Support/Long-Term Care certification was included as an outcome with stepwise forward selection. We assigned scores for each item based on the non-standardized regression coefficients obtained (B) and the sum of those scores was used to establish the risk assessment scales for predicting Needed Support/Long-Term Care certification from each model. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to estimate the sensitivity and specificity in order to compare predictive validity of the scales.Results During the follow-up period, 11,039 (15.3%) individuals required a new incidence of a Needed Support/Needed Long-Term Care certification. A risk assessment scale of 0-55 was established based on age, sex, and the 10 essential items from the Needs Survey's. The incidence of certification were 3.2%, 14.7%, 31.6%, 56.7%, and 75.0% at scores of 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.783, and the sensitivity and the specificity were 0.705 and 0.731, respectively (cut-off: 21/22). These values remained almost unchanged despite the addition of optional and medical assessment items (AUC: 0.786-0.787, sensitivity: 0.721-0.730, and specificity: 0.710-0.717).Conclusion Although the medical assessment data was not aggregated, the scale developed from the Kihon Checklist's 10 items (included in the Needs Survey's essential items) is useful for predicting the incidence of Needed Support/Long-Term Care certification. The scale, which evaluates the risk of needed support/long-term care at individual and community levels, was developed using the existing Kihon Checklist data or the Needs Survey's data collected subsequently by municipalities.