1. Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains
- Author
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Garcia, Elizabeth S and Loáiciga, Hugo A
- Subjects
Hydrology ,Atmospheric Sciences ,Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience ,Earth Sciences ,Climate Action ,inondations ,elevation du niveau marin ,dommages dus aux inondations ,hydraulique fluviale ,SIG ,croissance urbaine ,flood damage ,sea-level rise ,GIS ,river hydraulics ,floods ,urban growth ,Civil Engineering ,Environmental Engineering ,Physical geography and environmental geoscience ,Civil engineering - Abstract
This work presents a method for calculating the contributions of sea-level rise and urban growth to flood risk in coastal flood plains. The method consists of hydraulic/hydrological, urban growth and flood-damage quantification modules. The hydraulic/hydrological module estimates peak annual flows to generate flood stages impacted by sea-level rise within flood plains. A model for urban growth predicts patterns of urbanization within flood plains over the period 2010-2050. The flood-damage quantification module merges flood maps and urbanization predictions to calculate the expected annual flood damage (EAFD) for given scenarios of sea-level rise. The method is illustrated with an application to the Tijuana River of southern California, USA, and northwestern Mexico, where the EAFD is predicted to increase by over US$100 million because of sea-level rise of 0.25-1.0 m and urban growth by the year 2050. It is shown that urbanization plays a principal role in increasing the EAFD in the study area for the range of sea-level rise considered. © 2013 IAHS Press.
- Published
- 2014