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Land surface depressions play a central role in the transformation of rainfall to ponding, infiltration and runoff, yet digital elevation models (DEMs) used by spatially distributed hydrologic models that resolve land surface processes rarely capture land surface depressions at spatial scales relevant to this transformation. Methods to generate DEMs through processing of remote sensing data, such as optical and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) have favored surfaces without depressions to avoid adverse slopes that are problematic for many hydrologic routing methods. Here we present a new topographic conditioning workflow, Depression-Preserved DEM Processing (D2P) algorithm, which is designed to preserve physically meaningful surface depressions for depression-integrated and efficient hydrologic modeling. D2P includes several features: (1) an adaptive screening interval for delineation of depressions, (2) the ability to filter out anthropogenic land surface features (e.g., bridges), (3) the ability to blend river smoothing (e.g., a general downslope profile) and depression resolving functionality. From a case study in the Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed, D2P successfully resolved 86% of the ponds at a DEM resolution of 10 m. Topographic conditioning was achieved with minimum impact as D2P reduced the number of modified cells from the original DEM by 51% compared to a conventional algorithm. Furthermore, hydrologic simulation using a D2P processed DEM resulted in a more robust characterization on surface water dynamics based on higher surface water storage as well as an attenuated and delayed peak streamflow.

Increases in precipitation rates and volumes from tropical cyclones (TCs) caused by anthropogenic warming are predicted by climate modeling studies and have been identified in several high intensity storms occurring over the last half decade. However, it has been difficult to detect historical trends in TC precipitation at time scales long enough to overcome natural climate variability because of limitations in existing precipitation observations. We introduce an experimental global high-resolution climate data record of precipitation produced using infrared satellite imagery and corrected at the monthly scale by a gauge-derived product that shows generally good performance during two hurricane case studies but estimates higher mean precipitation rates in the tropics than the evaluation datasets. General increases in mean and extreme rainfall rates during the study period of 1980-2019 are identified, culminating in a 12-18%/40-year increase in global rainfall rates. Overall, all basins have experienced intensification in precipitation rates. Increases in rainfall rates have boosted the mean precipitation volume of global TCs by 7-15%/year, with the starkest rises seen in the North Atlantic, South Indian, and South Pacific basins (maximum 59-64% over 40 years). In terms of inland rainfall totals, year-by-year trends are generally positive due to increasing TC frequency, slower decay over land, and more intense rainfall, with an alarming increase of 81-85% seen from the strongest global TCs. As the global trend in precipitation rates follows expectations from warming sea surface temperatures (11.1%/°C), we hypothesize that the observed trends could be a result of anthropogenic warming creating greater concentrations of water vapor in the atmosphere, though retrospective studies of TC dynamics over the period are needed to confirm.

Accurate long-term global precipitation estimates, especially for heavy precipitation rates, at fine spatial and temporal resolutions is vital for a wide variety of climatological studies. Most of the available operational precipitation estimation datasets provide either high spatial resolution with short-term duration estimates or lower spatial resolution with long-term duration estimates. Furthermore, previous research has stressed that most of the available satellite-based precipitation products show poor performance for capturing extreme events at high temporal resolution. Therefore, there is a need for a precipitation product that reliably detects heavy precipitation rates with fine spatiotemporal resolution and a longer period of record. Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) is designed to address these limitations. This dataset provides precipitation estimates at 0.04° spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolutions from 1983 to present over the global domain of 60°S to 60°N. Evaluations of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR and PERSIANN-CDR against gauge and radar observations show the better performance of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR in representing the spatiotemporal resolution, magnitude, and spatial distribution patterns of precipitation, especially for extreme events.

This study presents the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Dynamic Infrared Rain Rate (PDIR-Now) near-real-time precipitation dataset. This dataset provides hourly, quasi-global, infrared-based precipitation estimates at 0.04° × 0.04° spatial resolution with a short latency (15-60 min). It is intended to supersede the PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) dataset previously produced as the near-real-time product of the PERSIANN family. We first provide a brief description of the algorithm's fundamentals and the input data used for deriving precipitation estimates. Second, we provide an extensive evaluation of the PDIR-Now dataset over annual, monthly, daily, and subdaily scales. Last, the article presents information on the dissemination of the dataset through the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) web-based interfaces. The evaluation, conducted over the period 2017-18, demonstrates the utility of PDIR-Now and its improvement over PERSIANN-CCS at all temporal scales. Specifically, PDIR-Now improves the estimation of rain/no-rain days as demonstrated by a critical success index (CSI) of 0.53 compared to 0.47 of PERSIANN-CCS. In addition, PDIR-Now improves the estimation of seasonal and diurnal cycles of precipitation as well as regional precipitation patterns erroneously estimated by PERSIANN-CCS. Finally, an evaluation is carried out to examine the performance of PDIR-Now in capturing two extreme events, Hurricane Harvey and a cluster of summer thunderstorms that occurred over the Netherlands, where it is shown that PDIR-Now adequately represents spatial precipitation patterns as well as subdaily precipitation rates with a correlation coefficient (CORR) of 0.64 for Hurricane Harvey and 0.76 for the Netherlands thunderstorms.

Satellite remote sensing plays a pivotal role in characterizing hydrometeorological components including cloud types and their associated precipitation. The Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) on the Polar Orbiting CloudSat satellite has provided a unique dataset to characterize cloud types. However, data from this nadir-looking radar offers limited capability for estimating precipitation because of the narrow satellite swath coverage and low temporal frequency. We use these high-quality observations to build a Deep Neural Network Cloud-Type Classification (DeepCTC) model to estimate cloud types from multispectral data from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) onboard the GOES-16 platform. The DeepCTC model is trained and tested using coincident data from both CloudSat and ABI over the CONUS region. Evaluations of DeepCTC indicate that the model performs well for a variety of cloud types including Altostratus, Altocumulus, Cumulus, Nimbostratus, Deep Convective and High clouds. However, capturing low-level clouds remains a challenge for the model. Results from simulated GOES-16 ABI imageries of the Hurricane Harvey event show a large-scale perspective of the rapid and consistent cloud-type monitoring is possible using the DeepCTC model. Additionally, assessments using half-hourly Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation rate data (for Hurricane Harvey as a case study) show the ability of DeepCTC in identifying rainy clouds, including Deep Convective and Nimbostratus and their precipitation potential. We also use DeepCTC to evaluate the performance of the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) product over different cloud types with respect to MRMS referenced at a half-hourly time scale for July 2018. Our analysis suggests that DeepCTC provides supplementary insights into the variability of cloud types to diagnose the weakness and strength of near real-time GEO-based precipitation retrievals. With additional training and testing, we believe DeepCTC has the potential to augment the widely used PERSIANN-CCS algorithm for estimating precipitation.

Portions of this letter come from the content published in the paper by Ware et al. [1].

Accurate and timely precipitation estimates are critical for monitoring and forecasting natural disasters such as floods. Despite having highŠresolution satellite information, precipitation estimation from remotely sensed data still suffers from methodological limitations. StateŠofŠtheŠart deep learning algorithms, renowned for their skill in learning accurate patterns within large and complex datasets, appear well suited to the task of precipitation estimation, given the ample amount of highŠresolution satellite data. In this study, the effectiveness of applying convolutional neural networks (CNNs) together with the infrared (IR) and water vapor (WV) channels from geostationary satellites for estimating precipitation rate is explored. The proposed model performances are evaluated during summer 2012 and 2013 over central CONUS at the spatial resolution of 0.088 and at an hourly time scale. Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN)–Cloud Classification System (CCS), which is an operational satelliteŠbased product, and PERSIANN–Stacked Denoising Autoencoder (PERSIANNŠSDAE) are employed as baseline models. Results demonstrate that the proposed model (PERSIANNŠCNN) provides more accurate rainfall estimates compared to the baseline models at various temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, PERSIANNŠCNN outperforms PERSIANNŠCCS (and PERSIANNŠSDAE) by 54% (and 23%) in the critical success index (CSI), demonstrating the detection skills of the model. Furthermore, the rootŠmean-square error (RMSE) of the rainfall estimates with respect to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV gauge–radar data, for PERSIANNŠCNN was lower than that of PERSIANNŠCCS (PERSIANNŠSDAE) by 37% (14%), showing the estimation accuracy of the proposed model.

Abstract Accurate and timely precipitation estimates are critical for monitoring and forecasting natural disasters such as floods. Despite having high-resolution satellite information, precipitation estimation from remotely sensed data still suffers from methodological limitations. State-of-the-art deep learning algorithms, renowned for their skill in learning accurate patterns within large and complex datasets, appear well suited to the task of precipitation estimation, given the ample amount of high-resolution satellite data. In this study, the effectiveness of applying convolutional neural networks (CNNs) together with the infrared (IR) and water vapor (WV) channels from geostationary satellites for estimating precipitation rate is explored. The proposed model performances are evaluated during summer 2012 and 2013 over central CONUS at the spatial resolution of 0.08° and at an hourly time scale. Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN)–Cloud Classification System (CCS), which is an operational satellite-based product, and PERSIANN–Stacked Denoising Autoencoder (PERSIANN-SDAE) are employed as baseline models. Results demonstrate that the proposed model (PERSIANN-CNN) provides more accurate rainfall estimates compared to the baseline models at various temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, PERSIANN-CNN outperforms PERSIANN-CCS (and PERSIANN-SDAE) by 54% (and 23%) in the critical success index (CSI), demonstrating the detection skills of the model. Furthermore, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the rainfall estimates with respect to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV gauge–radar data, for PERSIANN-CNN was lower than that of PERSIANN-CCS (PERSIANN-SDAE) by 37% (14%), showing the estimation accuracy of the proposed model.

Providing reliable long-term global precipitation records at high spatial and temporal resolutions is crucial for climatological studies. Satellite-based precipitation estimations are a promising alternative to rain gauges for providing homogeneous precipitation information. Most satellite-based precipitation products suffer from short-term data records, which make them unsuitable for various climatological and hydrological applications. However, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) provides more than 35 years of precipitation records at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial and daily temporal resolutions. The PERSIANN-CDR algorithm uses monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, which has been recently updated to version 2.3, for reducing the biases in the output of the PERSIANN model. In this study, we constructed PERSIANN-CDR using the newest version of GPCP (V2.3). We compared the PERSIANN-CDR dataset that is constructed using GPCP V2.3 (from here on referred to as PERSIANN-CDR V2.3) with the PERSIANN-CDR constructed using GPCP V2.2 (from here on PERSIANN-CDR V2.2), at monthly and daily scales for the period from 2009 to 2013. First, we discuss the changes between PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 and V2.2 over the land and ocean. Second, we evaluate the improvements in PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 with respect to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified gauge-based analysis, a gauged-based reference, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7), a commonly used satellite reference, at monthly and daily scales. The results show noticeable differences between PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 and V2.2 over oceans between 40° and 60° latitude in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Monthly and daily scale comparisons of the two bias-adjusted versions of PERSIANN-CDR with the above-mentioned references emphasize that PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 has improved mostly over the global land area, especially over the CONUS and Australia. The updated PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 data has replaced V2.2 data for the 2009–2013 period on CHRS data portal and NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Program.

Abstract Flood mapping from satellites provides large-scale observations of flood events, but cloud obstruction in satellite optical sensors limits its practical usability. In this study, we implemented the Variational Interpolation (VI) algorithm to remove clouds from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Snow-Covered Area (SCA) products. The VI algorithm estimated states of cloud-hindered pixels by constructing three-dimensional space–time surfaces based on assumptions of snow persistence. The resulting cloud-free flood maps, while maintaining the temporal resolution of the original MODIS product, showed an improvement of nearly 70% in average probability of detection (POD) (from 0.29 to 0.49) when validated with flood maps derived from Landsat-8 imagery. The second part of this study utilized the cloud-free flood maps for calibration of a hydrologic model to improve simulation of flood inundation maps. The results demonstrated the utility of the cloud-free maps, as simulated inundation maps had average POD, false alarm ratio (FAR), and Hanssen–Kuipers (HK) skill score of 0.87, 0.49, and 0.84, respectively, compared to POD, FAR, and HK of 0.70, 0.61, and 0.67 when original maps were used for calibration.

Flood mapping from satellites provides large-scale observations of flood events, but cloud obstruction in satellite optical sensors limits its practical usability. In this study, we implemented the Variational Interpolation (VI) algorithm to remove clouds from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Snow-Covered Area (SCA) products. The VI algorithm estimated states of cloud-hindered pixels by constructing three-dimensional space–time surfaces based on assumptions of snow persistence. The resulting cloud-free flood maps, while maintaining the temporal resolution of the original MODIS product, showed an improvement of nearly 70% in average probability of detection (POD) (from 0.29 to 0.49) when validated with flood maps derived from Landsat-8 imagery. The second part of this study utilized the cloud-free flood maps for calibration of a hydrologic model to improve simulation of flood inundation maps. The results demonstrated the utility of the cloud-free maps, as simulated inundation maps had average POD, false alarm ratio (FAR), and Hanssen–Kuipers (HK) skill score of 0.87, 0.49, and 0.84, respectively, compared to POD, FAR, and HK of 0.70, 0.61, and 0.67 when original maps were used for calibration.

The effective identification of clouds and monitoring of their evolution are important toward more accurate quantitative precipitation estimation and forecast. In this study, a new gradient-based cloud-image segmentation algorithm is developed using image processing techniques. This method integrates morphological image gradient magnitudes to separate cloud systems and patches boundaries. A varying scale kernel is implemented to reduce the sensitivity of image segmentation to noise and to capture objects with various finenesses of the edges in remote sensing images. The proposed method is flexible and extendable from single to multispectral imagery. Case studies were carried out to validate the algorithm by applying the proposed segmentation algorithm to synthetic radiances for channels of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-16) simulated by a high-resolution weather prediction model. The proposed method compares favorably with the existing cloud-patch-based segmentation technique implemented in the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) rainfall retrieval algorithm. Evaluation of event-based images indicates that the proposed algorithm has potentials comparing to the conventional segmentation technique used in PERSIANN-CCS to improve rain detection and estimation skills with an accuracy rate of up to 98% in identifying cloud regions.

Precipitation process is generally considered to be poorly represented in numerical weather/climate models. Statistical downscaling (SD) methods, which relate precipitation with model resolved dynamics, often provide more accurate precipitation estimates compared to model's raw precipitation products. We introduce the convolutional neural network model to foster this aspect of SD for daily precipitation prediction. Specifically, we restrict the predictors to the variables that are directly resolved by discretizing the atmospheric dynamics equations. In this sense, our model works as an alternative to the existing precipitation-related parameterization schemes for numerical precipitation estimation. We train the model to learn precipitation-related dynamical features from the surrounding dynamical fields by optimizing a hierarchical set of spatial convolution kernels. We test the model at 14 geogrid points across the contiguous United States. Results show that provided with enough data, precipitation estimates from the convolutional neural network model outperform the reanalysis precipitation products, as well as SD products using linear regression, nearest neighbor, random forest, or fully connected deep neural network. Evaluation for the test set suggests that the improvements can be seamlessly transferred to numerical weather modeling for improving precipitation prediction. Based on the default network, we examine the impact of the network architectures on model performance. Also, we offer simple visualization and analyzing approaches to interpret the models and their results. Our study contributes to the following two aspects: First, we offer a novel approach to enhance numerical precipitation estimation; second, the proposed model provides important implications for improving precipitation-related parameterization schemes using a data-driven approach.

In 2016, a team of earth scientists directly engaged a team of computer scientists to identify cyberinfrastructure (CI) approaches that would speed up an earth science workflow. This paper describes the evolution of that workflow as the two teams bridged CI and an image segmentation algorithm to do large scale earth science research. The Pacific Research Platform (PRP) and The Cognitive Hardware and Software Ecosystem Community Infrastructure (CHASE-CI) resources were used to significantly decreased the earth science workflow's wall-clock time from 19.5 days to 53 minutes. The improvement in wall-clock time comes from the use of network appliances, improved image segmentation, deployment of a containerized workflow, and the increase in CI experience and training for the earth scientists. This paper presents a description of the evolving innovations used to improve the workflow, bottlenecks identified within each workflow version, and improvements made within each version of the workflow, over a three-year time period.

This article presents a cloud-free snow cover dataset with a daily temporal resolution and 0.05° spatial resolution from March 2000 to February 2017 over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The dataset was developed by completely removing clouds from the original NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Snow Cover Area product (MOD10C1) through a series of spatiotemporal filters followed by the Variational Interpolation (VI) algorithm; the filters and VI algorithm were evaluated using bootstrapping test. The dataset was validated over the period with the Landsat 7 ETM+ snow cover maps in the Seattle, Minneapolis, Rocky Mountains, and Sierra Nevada regions. The resulting cloud-free snow cover captured accurately dynamic changes of snow throughout the period in terms of Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR) with average values of 0.955 and 0.179 for POD and FAR, respectively. The dataset provides continuous inputs of snow cover area for hydrologic studies for almost two decades. The VI algorithm can be applied in other regions given that a proper validation can be performed.

The Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) has created the CHRS Data Portal to facilitate easy access to the three open data licensed satellite-based precipitation datasets generated by our Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) system: PERSIANN, PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System (CCS), and PERSIANN-Climate Data Record (CDR). These datasets have the potential for widespread use by various researchers, professionals including engineers, city planners, and so forth, as well as the community at large. Researchers at CHRS created the CHRS Data Portal with an emphasis on simplicity and the intention of fostering synergistic relationships with scientists and experts from around the world. The following paper presents an outline of the hosted datasets and features available on the CHRS Data Portal, an examination of the necessity of easily accessible public data, a comprehensive overview of the PERSIANN algorithms and datasets, and a walk-through of the procedure to access and obtain the data.

The Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) has created the CHRS Data Portal to facilitate easy access to the three open data licensed satellite-based precipitation datasets generated by our Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) system: PERSIANN, PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System (CCS), and PERSIANN-Climate Data Record (CDR). These datasets have the potential for widespread use by various researchers, professionals including engineers, city planners, and so forth, as well as the community at large. Researchers at CHRS created the CHRS Data Portal with an emphasis on simplicity and the intention of fostering synergistic relationships with scientists and experts from around the world. The following paper presents an outline of the hosted datasets and features available on the CHRS Data Portal, an examination of the necessity of easily accessible public data, a comprehensive overview of the PERSIANN algorithms and datasets, and a walk-through of the procedure to access and obtain the data.

In general, there are no long-term meteorological or hydrological data available for karst river basins. The lack of rainfall data is a great challenge that hinders the development of hydrological models. Quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) based on weather satellites offer a potential method by which rainfall data in karst areas could be obtained. Furthermore, coupling QPEs with a distributed hydrological model has the potential to improve the precision of flood predictions in large karst watersheds. Estimating precipitation from remotely sensed information using an artificial neural network-cloud classification system (PERSIANN-CCS) is a type of QPE technology based on satellites that has achieved broad research results worldwide. However, only a few studies on PERSIANN-CCS QPEs have occurred in large karst basins, and the accuracy is generally poor in terms of practical applications. This paper studied the feasibility of coupling a fully physically based distributed hydrological model, i.e., the Liuxihe model, with PERSIANN-CCS QPEs for predicting floods in a large river basin, i.e., the Liujiang karst river basin, which has a watershed area of 58 270 km-2, in southern China. The model structure and function require further refinement to suit the karst basins. For instance, the sub-basins in this paper are divided into many karst hydrology response units (KHRUs) to ensure that the model structure is adequately refined for karst areas. In addition, the convergence of the underground runoff calculation method within the original Liuxihe model is changed to suit the karst water-bearing media, and the Muskingum routing method is used in the model to calculate the underground runoff in this study. Additionally, the epikarst zone, as a distinctive structure of the KHRU, is carefully considered in the model. The result of the QPEs shows that compared with the observed precipitation measured by a rain gauge, the distribution of precipitation predicted by the PERSIANN-CCS QPEs was very similar. However, the quantity of precipitation predicted by the PERSIANN-CCS QPEs was smaller. A post-processing method is proposed to revise the products of the PERSIANN-CCS QPEs. The karst flood simulation results show that coupling the post-processed PERSIANN-CCS QPEs with the Liuxihe model has a better performance relative to the result based on the initial PERSIANN-CCS QPEs. Moreover, the performance of the coupled model largely improves with parameter re-optimization via the post-processed PERSIANN-CCS QPEs. The average values of the six evaluation indices change as follows: the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient increases by 14 %, the correlation coefficient increases by 15 %, the process relative error decreases by 8 %, the peak flow relative error decreases by 18 %, the water balance coefficient increases by 8 %, and the peak flow time error displays a 5 h decrease. Among these parameters, the peak flow relative error shows the greatest improvement; thus, these parameters are of page1506 the greatest concern for flood prediction. The rational flood simulation results from the coupled model provide a great practical application prospect for flood prediction in large karst river basins.

Precipitation downscaling is widely employed for enhancing the resolution and accuracy of precipitation products from general circulation models (GCMs). In this study, we propose a novel statistical downscaling method to foster GCMs' precipitation prediction resolution and accuracy for the monsoon region. We develop a deep neural network composed of a convolution and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent module to estimate precipitation based on well-resolved atmospheric dynamical fields. The proposed model is compared against the GCM precipitation product and classical downscaling methods in the Xiangjiang River Basin in South China. Results show considerable improvement compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)-Interim reanalysis precipitation. Also, the model outperforms benchmark downscaling approaches, including (1) quantile mapping, (2) the support vector machine, and (3) the convolutional neural network. To test the robustness of the model and its applicability in practical forecasting, we apply the trained network for precipitation prediction forced by retrospective forecasts from the ECMWF model. Compared to the ECMWF precipitation forecast, our model makes better use of the resolved dynamical field for more accurate precipitation prediction at lead times from 1 day up to 2 weeks. This superiority decreases with the forecast lead time, as the GCM's skill in predicting atmospheric dynamics is diminished by the chaotic effect. Finally, we build a distributed hydrological model and force it with different sources of precipitation inputs. Hydrological simulation forced with the neural network precipitation estimation shows significant advantage over simulation forced with the original ERA-Interim precipitation (with NSE value increases from 0.06 to 0.64), and the performance is only slightly worse than the observed precipitation forced simulation (NSE = 0.82). This further proves the value of the proposed downscaling method, and suggests its potential for hydrological forecasts.

This article presents a cloud-free snow cover dataset with a daily temporal resolution and 0.05° spatial resolution from March 2000 to February 2017 over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The dataset was developed by completely removing clouds from the original NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Snow Cover Area product (MOD10C1) through a series of spatiotemporal filters followed by the Variational Interpolation (VI) algorithm; the filters and VI algorithm were evaluated using bootstrapping test. The dataset was validated over the period with the Landsat 7 ETM+ snow cover maps in the Seattle, Minneapolis, Rocky Mountains, and Sierra Nevada regions. The resulting cloud-free snow cover captured accurately dynamic changes of snow throughout the period in terms of Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR) with average values of 0.955 and 0.179 for POD and FAR, respectively. The dataset provides continuous inputs of snow cover area for hydrologic studies for almost two decades. The VI algorithm can be applied in other regions given that a proper validation can be performed.

In this paper, we present a state-of-the-art precipitation estimation framework which leverages advances in satellite remote sensing as well as Deep Learning (DL). The framework takes advantage of the improvements in spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) onboard the GOES-16 platform along with elevation information to improve the precipitation estimates. The procedure begins by first deriving a Rain/No Rain (R/NR) binary mask through classification of the pixels and then applying regression to estimate the amount of rainfall for rainy pixels. A Fully Convolutional Network is used as a regressor to predict precipitation estimates. The network is trained using the non-saturating conditional Generative Adversarial Network (cGAN) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss terms to generate results that better learn the complex distribution of precipitation in the observed data. Common verification metrics such as Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Critical Success Index (CSI), Bias, Correlation and MSE are used to evaluate the accuracy of both R/NR classification and real-valued precipitation estimates. Statistics and visualizations of the evaluation measures show improvements in the precipitation retrieval accuracy in the proposed framework compared to the baseline models trained using conventional MSE loss terms. This framework is proposed as an augmentation for PERSIANN-CCS (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network- Cloud Classification System) algorithm for estimating global precipitation.

Providing reliable long-term global precipitation records at high spatial and temporal resolutions is crucial for climatological studies. Satellite-based precipitation estimations are a promising alternative to rain gauges for providing homogeneous precipitation information. Most satellite-based precipitation products suffer from short-term data records, which make them unsuitable for various climatological and hydrological applications. However, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) provides more than 35 years of precipitation records at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial and daily temporal resolutions. The PERSIANN-CDR algorithm uses monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, which has been recently updated to version 2.3, for reducing the biases in the output of the PERSIANN model. In this study, we constructed PERSIANN-CDR using the newest version of GPCP (V2.3). We compared the PERSIANN-CDR dataset that is constructed using GPCP V2.3 (from here on referred to as PERSIANN-CDR V2.3) with the PERSIANN-CDR constructed using GPCP V2.2 (from here on PERSIANN-CDR V2.2), at monthly and daily scales for the period from 2009 to 2013. First, we discuss the changes between PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 and V2.2 over the land and ocean. Second, we evaluate the improvements in PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 with respect to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified gauge-based analysis, a gauged-based reference, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7), a commonly used satellite reference, at monthly and daily scales. The results show noticeable differences between PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 and V2.2 over oceans between 40° and 60° latitude in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Monthly and daily scale comparisons of the two bias-adjusted versions of PERSIANN-CDR with the above-mentioned references emphasize that PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 has improved mostly over the global land area, especially over the CONUS and Australia. The updated PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 data has replaced V2.2 data for the 2009-2013 period on CHRS data portal and NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Program.

Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting is important for flood forecasting, early flood warning, and natural hazard management. This study proposes a precipitation forecast model by extrapolating Cloud-Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) using advanced Deep Neural Networks, and applying the forecasted CTBT into an effective rainfall retrieval algorithm to obtain the Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (0–6 hr). To achieve such tasks, we propose a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), respectively. The precipitation forecasts obtained from our proposed framework, (i.e., LSTM combined with PERSIANN) are compared with a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Persistency method, and Farneback optical flow each combined with PERSIANN algorithm and the numerical model results from the first version of Rapid Refresh (RAPv1.0) over three regions in the United States, including the states of Oregon, Oklahoma, and Florida. Our experiments indicate better statistics, such as correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error, for the CTBT forecasts from the proposed LSTM compared to the RNN, Persistency, and the Farneback method. The precipitation forecasts from the proposed LSTM and PERSIANN framework has demonstrated better statistics compared to the RAPv1.0 numerical forecasts and PERSIANN estimations from RNN, Persistency, and Farneback projections in terms of Probability of Detection, False Alarm Ratio, Critical Success Index, correlation coefficient, and root-mean-square error, especially in predicting the convective rainfalls. The proposed method shows superior capabilities in short-term forecasting over compared methods, and has the potential to be implemented globally as an alternative short-term forecast product.

Reservoirs and dams are vital human-built infrastructures that play essential roles in flood control, hydroelectric power generation, water supply, navigation, and other functions. The realization of those functions requires efficient reservoir operation, and the effective controls on the outflow from a reservoir or dam. Over the last decade, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have become increasingly popular in the field of streamflow forecasts, reservoir operation planning and scheduling approaches. In this study, three AI models, namely, the backpropagation (BP) neural network, support vector regression (SVR) technique, and long short-term memory (LSTM) model, are employed to simulate reservoir operation at monthly, daily, and hourly time scales, using approximately 30 years of historical reservoir operation records. This study aims to summarize the influence of the parameter settings on model performance and to explore the applicability of the LSTM model to reservoir operation simulation. The results show the following: (1) for the BP neural network and LSTM model, the effects of the number of maximum iterations on model performance should be prioritized; for the SVR model, the simulation performance is directly related to the selection of the kernel function, and sigmoid and RBF kernel functions should be prioritized; (2) the BP neural network and SVR are suitable for the model to learn the operation rules of a reservoir from a small amount of data; and (3) the LSTM model is able to effectively reduce the time consumption and memory storage required by other AI models, and demonstrate good capability in simulating low-flow conditions and the outflow curve for the peak operation period.

Given the continuous advancement in the retrieval of precipitation from satellites, it is important to develop methods that incorporate satellite-based precipitation data sets in the design and planning of infrastructure. This is because in many regions around the world, in situ rainfall observations are sparse and have insufficient record length. A handful of studies examined the use of satellite-based precipitation to develop intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves; however, they have mostly focused on small spatial domains and relied on combining satellite-based with ground-based precipitation data sets. In this study, we explore this issue by providing a methodological framework with the potential to be applied in ungauged regions. This framework is based on accounting for the characteristics of satellite-based precipitation products, namely, adjustment of bias and transformation of areal to point rainfall. The latter method is based on previous studies on the reverse transformation (point to areal) commonly used to obtain catchment-scale IDF curves. The paper proceeds by applying this framework to develop IDF curves over the contiguous United States (CONUS); the data set used is Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks – Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). IDFs are then evaluated against National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 to provide a quantitative estimate of their accuracy. Results show that median errors are in the range of (17–22%), (6–12%), and (3–8%) for one-day, two-day and three-day IDFs, respectively, and return periods in the range (2–100) years. Furthermore, a considerable percentage of satellite-based IDFs lie within the confidence interval of NOAA Atlas 14.

Precipitation is a key input variable for hydrological and climate studies. Rain gauges can provide reliable precipitation measurements at a point of observations. However, the uncertainty of rain measurements increases when a rain gauge network is sparse. Satellite-based precipitation estimations SPEs appear to be an alternative source of measurements for regions with limited rain gauges. However, the systematic bias from satellite precipitation estimation should be estimated and adjusted. In this study, a method of removing the bias from the precipitation estimation from remotely sensed information using artificial neural networks-cloud classification system (PERSIANN-CCS) over a region where the rain gauge is sparse is investigated. The method consists of monthly empirical quantile mapping of gauge and satellite measurements over several climate zones as well as inverse-weighted distance for the interpolation of gauge measurements. Seven years (2010–2016) of daily precipitation estimation from PERSIANN-CCS was used to test and adjust the bias of estimation over Saudi Arabia. The first 6 years (2010–2015) are used for calibration, while 1 year (2016) is used for validation. The results show that the mean yearly bias is reduced by 90%, and the yearly root mean square error is reduced by 68% during the validation year. The experimental results confirm that the proposed method can effectively adjust the bias of satellite-based precipitation estimations.

Simplicity and flexibility of meta-heuristic optimization algorithms have attracted lots of attention in the field of optimization. Different optimization methods, however, hold algorithm-specific strengths and limitations, and selecting the best-performing algorithm for a specific problem is a tedious task. We introduce a new hybrid optimization framework, entitled Shuffled Complex-Self Adaptive Hybrid EvoLution (SC-SAHEL), which combines the strengths of different evolutionary algorithms (EAs) in a parallel computing scheme. SC-SAHEL explores performance of different EAs, such as the capability to escape local attractions, speed, convergence, etc., during population evolution as each individual EA suits differently to various response surfaces. The SC-SAHEL algorithm is benchmarked over 29 conceptual test functions, and a real-world hydropower reservoir model case study. Results show that the hybrid SC-SAHEL algorithm is rigorous and effective in finding global optimum for a majority of test cases, and that it is computationally efficient in comparison to algorithms with individual EA.

In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the data sources and estimation methods of 30 currently available global precipitation data sets, including gauge-based, satellite-related, and reanalysis data sets. We analyzed the discrepancies between the data sets from daily to annual timescales and found large differences in both the magnitude and the variability of precipitation estimates. The magnitude of annual precipitation estimates over global land deviated by as much as 300 mm/yr among the products. Reanalysis data sets had a larger degree of variability than the other types of data sets. The degree of variability in precipitation estimates also varied by region. Large differences in annual and seasonal estimates were found in tropical oceans, complex mountain areas, northern Africa, and some high-latitude regions. Overall, the variability associated with extreme precipitation estimates was slightly greater at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes. The reliability of precipitation data sets is mainly limited by the number and spatial coverage of surface stations, the satellite algorithms, and the data assimilation models. The inconsistencies described limit the capability of the products for climate monitoring, attribution, and model validation.

Over the past 2 decades, a wide range of studies have incorporated Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) products. Currently, PERSIANN offers several precipitation products based on different algorithms available at various spatial and temporal scales, namely PERSIANN, PERSIANN-CCS, and PERSIANN-CDR. The goal of this article is to first provide an overview of the available PERSIANN precipitation retrieval algorithms and their differences. Secondly, we offer an evaluation of the available operational products over the contiguous US (CONUS) at different spatial and temporal scales using Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified gauge-based analysis as a benchmark. Due to limitations of the baseline dataset (CPC), daily scale is the finest temporal scale used for the evaluation over CONUS. Additionally, we provide a comparison of the available products at a quasi-global scale. Finally, we highlight the strengths and limitations of the PERSIANN products and briefly discuss expected future developments.

The classical Back-Propagation (BP) scheme with gradient-based optimization in training Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) suffers from many drawbacks, such as the premature convergence, and the tendency of being trapped in local optimums. Therefore, as an alternative for the BP and gradient-based optimization schemes, various Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs), i.e., Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Genetic Algorithm (GA), Simulated Annealing (SA), and Differential Evolution (DE), have gained popularity in the field of ANN weight training. This study applied a new efficient and effective Shuffled Complex Evolutionary Global Optimization Algorithm with Principal Component Analysis – University of California Irvine (SP-UCI) to the weight training process of a three-layer feed-forward ANN. A large-scale numerical comparison is conducted among the SP-UCI-, PSO-, GA-, SA-, and DE-based ANNs on 17 benchmark, complex, and real-world datasets. Results show that SP-UCI-based ANN outperforms other EA-based ANNs in the context of convergence and generalization. Results suggest that the SP-UCI algorithm possesses good potential in support of the weight training of ANN in real-word problems. In addition, the suitability of different kinds of EAs on training ANN is discussed. The large-scale comparison experiments conducted in this paper are fundamental references for selecting proper ANN weight training algorithms in practice.

The occurrence of extreme rainfall events and their impacts on hydrologic systems and society are critical considerations in the design and management of a large number of water resources projects. As precipitation records are often limited or unavailable at many sites, it is essential to develop better methods for regional estimation of extreme rainfall at these partially-gauged or ungauged sites. In this study, an innovative method for regional rainfall frequency analysis for ungauged sites is presented. The new method (hereafter, this is called the RRFA-S) is based on corrected annual maximum series obtained from a satellite precipitation product (e.g., PERSIANN-CDR). The probability matching method (PMM) is used here for bias correction to match the CDF of satellite-based precipitation data with the gauged data. The RRFA-S method was assessed through a comparative study with the traditional index flood method using the available annual maximum series of daily rainfall in two different regions in USA (11 sites in Colorado and 18 sites in California). The leave-one-out cross-validation technique was used to represent the ungauged site condition. Results of this numerical application have found that the quantile estimates obtained from the new approach are more accurate and more robust than those given by the traditional index flood method.

In this study, satellite-based daily precipitation estimation data from precipitation estimation from remotely sensed information using artificial neural networks (PERSIANN)-climate data record (CDR) are being evaluated in Iran. This dataset (0.25°, daily), which covers over three decades of continuous observation beginning in 1983, is evaluated using rain-gauge data for the period of 1998–2007. In addition to categorical statistics and mean annual amount and number of rainy days, ten standard extreme indices were calculated to observe the behavior of daily extremes. The results show that PERSIANN-CDR exhibits reasonable performance associated with the probability of detection and false-alarm ratio, but it overestimates precipitation in the area. Although PERSIANN-CDR mostly underestimates extreme indices, it shows relatively high correlations (between 0.6316–0.7797) for intensity indices. PERSIANN-CDR data are also used to calculate the trend in annual amounts of precipitation, the number of rainy days, and precipitation extremes over Iran covering the period of 1983–2012. Our analysis shows that, although annual precipitation decreased in the western and eastern regions of Iran, the annual number of rainy days increased in the northern and northwestern areas. Statistically significant negative trends are identified in the 90th percentile daily precipitation, as well as the mean daily precipitation from wet days in the northern part of the study area. The positive trends of the maximum annual number of consecutive dry days in the eastern regions indicate that the dry periods became longer in these arid areas.

In the first part of this paper, monthly precipitation data from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 algorithm Version 7 (TRMM-3B42V7) are evaluated over Iran using the Generalized Three-Cornered Hat (GTCH) method which is self-sufficient of reference data as input. Climate Data Unit (CRU) is added to the GTCH evaluations as an independent gauge-based dataset thus, the minimum requirement of three datasets for the model is satisfied. To ensure consistency of all datasets, the two satellite products were aggregated to 0.5° spatial resolution, which is the minimum resolution of CRU. The results show that the PERSIANN-CDR has higher Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) than TRMM-3B42V7 for the monthly rainfall estimation, especially in the northern half of the country. All datasets showed low SNR in the mountainous area of southwestern Iran, as well as the arid parts in the southeast region of the country. Additionally, in order to evaluate the efficacy of PERSIANN-CDR and TRMM-3B42V7 in capturing extreme daily-precipitation amounts, an in-situ rain-gauge dataset collected by the Islamic Republic of the Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) was employed. Given the sparsity of the rain gauges, only 0.25° pixels containing three or more gauges were used for this evaluation. There were 228 such pixels where daily and extreme rainfall from PERSIANN-CDR and TRMM-3B42V7 could be compared. However, TRMM-3B42V7 overestimates most of the intensity indices (correlation coefficients; R between 0.7648–0.8311, Root Mean Square Error; RMSE between 3.29mm/day-21.2mm/5day); PERSIANN-CDR underestimates these extremes (R between 0.6349–0.7791 and RMSE between 3.59mm/day-30.56mm/5day). Both satellite products show higher correlation coefficients and lower RMSEs for the annual mean of consecutive dry spells than wet spells. The results show that TRMM-3B42V7 can capture the annual mean of the absolute indices (the number of wet days in which daily precipitation >10 mm, 20 mm) better than PERSIANN-CDR. The results of daily evaluations show that the similarity of Empirical Cumulative Density Function (ECDF) of satellite products and IRIMO gauges daily precipitation, as well as dry spells with different thresholds in some selected pixels (include at least five gauges), are significant. The results also indicate that ECDFs become more significant when threshold increases. In terms of regional analyses, the higher SNR of the products on monthly (based on the GTCH method) and daily evaluations (significant ECDFs) is mostly consistent.

With high spatial-temporal resolution, Satellite-based Precipitation Estimates (SPE) are becoming valuable alternative rainfall data for hydrologic and climatic studies but are subject to considerable uncertainty. Effective merging of SPE and ground-based gauge measurements may help to improve precipitation estimation in both better resolution and accuracy. In this study, a framework for merging satellite and gauge precipitation data is developed based on three steps, including SPE bias adjustment, gauge observation gridding, and data merging, with the objective to produce high-quality precipitation estimates. An inverse-root-mean-square-error weighting approach is proposed to combine the satellite and gauge estimates that are in advance adjusted and gridded, respectively. The model is applied and tested with the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) estimates (daily, 0.04° × 0.04°) over Chile, for the 6 year period of 2009-2014. Daily observations from about 90% of collected gauges over the study area are used for model calibration; the rest of the gauged data are regarded as ground “truth” for validation. Evaluation results indicate high effectiveness of the model in producing high-resolution-precision precipitation data. Compared to reference data, the merged data (daily) show correlation coefficients, probabilities of detection, root-mean-square errors, and absolute mean biases that were consistently improved from the original PERSIANN-CCS estimates. The cross-validation evidences that the framework is effective in providing high-quality estimates even over nongauged satellite pixels. The same method can be applied globally and is expected to produce precipitation products in near real time by integrating gauge observations with satellite estimates.

This study explores using Passive Microwave (PMW) rainfall estimation for spatial and temporal adjustment of Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System(PERSIANN-CCS). The PERSIANN-CCS algorithm collects information from infrared images to estimate rainfall. PERSIANN-CCS is one of the algorithms used in the IntegratedMultisatellite Retrievals for GPM (Global Precipitation Mission) estimation for the time period PMW rainfall estimations are limited or not available. Continued improvement of PERSIANN-CCS will support Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM for current as well as retrospective estimations of global precipitation. This study takes advantage of the high spatial and temporal resolution of GEO-based PERSIANN-CCS estimation and the more effective, but lower sample frequency, PMW estimation. The Probability Matching Method (PMM) was used to adjust the rainfall distribution of GEO-based PERSIANN-CCS toward that of PMW rainfall estimation. The results show that a significant improvement of global PERSIANN-CCS rainfall estimation is obtained.

Reservoirs are fundamental human-built infrastructures that collect, store, and deliver fresh surface water in a timely manner for many purposes. Efficient reservoir operation requires policy makers and operators to understand how reservoir inflows are changing under different hydrological and climatic conditions to enable forecast-informed operations. Over the last decade, the uses of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining [AI & DM] techniques in assisting reservoir streamflow subseasonal to seasonal forecasts have been increasing. In this study, Random Forest [RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) are employed and compared with respect to their capabilities for predicting 1 month-ahead reservoir inflows for two headwater reservoirs in USA and China. Both current and lagged hydrological information and 17 known climate phenomenon indices, i.e., PDO and ENSO, etc., are selected as predictors for simulating reservoir inflows. Results show (1) three methods are capable of providing monthly reservoir inflows with satisfactory statistics; (2) the results obtained by Random Forest have the best statistical performances compared with the other two methods; (3) another advantage of Random Forest algorithm is its capability of interpreting raw model inputs; (4) climate phenomenon indices are useful in assisting monthly or seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflow; and (5) different climate conditions are autocorrelated with up to several months, and the climatic information and their lags are cross correlated with local hydrological conditions in our case studies.

On the Tibetan Plateau, the limited ground-based rainfall information owing to a harsh environment has brought great challenges to hydrological studies. Satellite-based rainfall products, which allow for a better coverage than both radar network and rain gauges on the Tibetan Plateau, can be suitable alternatives for studies on investigating the hydrological processes and climate change. In this study, a newly developed daily satellite-based precipitation product, termed Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), is used as input for a hydrologic model to simulate streamflow in the upper Yellow and Yangtze River basins on the Tibetan Plateau. The results show that the simulated streamflows using PERSIANN-CDR precipitation and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) precipitation are closer to observation than that using limited gauge-based precipitation interpolation in the upper Yangtze River basin. The simulated streamflow using gauge-based precipitation are higher than the streamflow observation during the wet season. In the upper Yellow River basin, gauge-based precipitation, GLDAS precipitation, and PERSIANN-CDR precipitation have similar good performance in simulating streamflow. The evaluation of streamflow simulation capability in this study partly indicates that the PERSIANN-CDR rainfall product has good potential to be a reliable dataset and an alternative information source of a limited gauge network for conducting long-term hydrological and climate studies on the Tibetan Plateau.

HiResFlood-UCI was developed by coupling the NWS's hydrologic model (HL-RDHM) with the hydraulic model (BreZo) for flash flood modeling at decameter resolutions. The coupled model uses HL-RDHM as a rainfall-runoff generator and replaces the routing scheme of HL-RDHM with the 2D hydraulic model (BreZo) in order to predict localized flood depths and velocities. A semi-automated technique of unstructured mesh generation was developed to cluster an adequate density of computational cells along river channels such that numerical errors are negligible compared with other sources of error, while ensuring that computational costs of the hydraulic model are kept to a bare minimum. HiResFlood-UCI was implemented for a watershed (ELDO2) in the DMIP2 experiment domain in Oklahoma. Using synthetic precipitation input, the model was tested for various components including HL-RDHM parameters (a priori versus calibrated), channel and floodplain Manning n values, DEM resolution (10 m versus 30 m) and computation mesh resolution (10 m+ versus 30 m+). Simulations with calibrated versus a priori parameters of HL-RDHM show that HiResFlood-UCI produces reasonable results with the a priori parameters from NWS. Sensitivities to hydraulic model resistance parameters, mesh resolution and DEM resolution are also identified, pointing to the importance of model calibration and validation for accurate prediction of localized flood intensities. HiResFlood-UCI performance was examined using 6 measured precipitation events as model input for model calibration and validation of the streamflow at the outlet. The Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) obtained ranges from 0.588 to 0.905. The model was also validated for the flooded map using USGS observed water level at an interior point. The predicted flood stage error is 0.82 m or less, based on a comparison to measured stage. Validation of stage and discharge predictions builds confidence in model predictions of flood extent and localized velocities, which are fundamental to reliable flash flood warning.

An object-based verification approach is employed to assess the performance of the commonly used high-resolution satellite precipitation products: Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), Climate Prediction center MORPHing technique (CMORPH), and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT. The evaluation of the satellite precipitation products focuses on the skill of depicting the geometric features of the localized precipitation areas. Seasonal variability of the performances of these products against the ground observations is investigated through the examples of warm and cold seasons. It is found that PERSIANN is capable of depicting the orientation of the localized precipitation areas in both seasons. CMORPH has the ability to capture the sizes of the localized precipitation areas and performs the best in the overall assessment for both seasons. 3B42RT is capable of depicting the location of the precipitation areas for both seasons. In addition, all of the products perform better on capturing the sizes and centroids of precipitation areas in the warm season than in the cold season, while they perform better on depicting the intersection area and orientation in the cold season than in the warm season. These products are more skillful on correctly detecting the localized precipitation areas against the observations in the warm season than in the cold season.

Satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPEs) are promising alternative precipitation data for climatic and hydrological applications, especially for regions where ground-based observations are limited. However, existing satellite-based rainfall estimations are subject to systematic biases. This study aims to adjust the biases in the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks–Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) rainfall data over Chile, using gauge observations as reference. A novel bias adjustment framework, termed QM-GW, is proposed based on the nonparametric quantile mapping approach and a Gaussian weighting interpolation scheme. The PERSIANN-CCS precipitation estimates (daily, 0.04°×0.04°) over Chile are adjusted for the period of 2009–2014. The historical data (satellite and gauge) for 2009–2013 are used to calibrate the methodology; nonparametric cumulative distribution functions of satellite and gauge observations are estimated at every 1°×1° box region. One year (2014) of gauge data was used for validation. The results show that the biases of the PERSIANN-CCS precipitation data are effectively reduced. The spatial patterns of adjusted satellite rainfall show high consistency to the gauge observations, with reduced root-mean-square errors and mean biases. The systematic biases of the PERSIANN-CCS precipitation time series, at both monthly and daily scales, are removed. The extended validation also verifies that the proposed approach can be applied to adjust SPEs into the future, without further need for ground-based measurements. This study serves as a valuable reference for the bias adjustment of existing SPEs using gauge observations worldwide.

The controlled outflows from a reservoir or dam are highly dependent on the decisions made by the reservoir operators, instead of a natural hydrological process. Difference exists between the natural upstream inflows to reservoirs and the controlled outflows from reservoirs that supply the downstream users. With the decision maker's awareness of changing climate, reservoir management requires adaptable means to incorporate more information into decision making, such as water delivery requirement, environmental constraints, dry/wet conditions, etc. In this paper, a robust reservoir outflow simulation model is presented, which incorporates one of the well-developed data-mining models (Classification and Regression Tree) to predict the complicated human-controlled reservoir outflows and extract the reservoir operation patterns. A shuffled cross-validation approach is further implemented to improve CART's predictive performance. An application study of nine major reservoirs in California is carried out. Results produced by the enhanced CART, original CART, and random forest are compared with observation. The statistical measurements show that the enhanced CART and random forest overperform the CART control run in general, and the enhanced CART algorithm gives a better predictive performance over random forest in simulating the peak flows. The results also show that the proposed model is able to consistently and reasonably predict the expert release decisions. Experiments indicate that the release operation in the Oroville Lake is significantly dominated by SWP allocation amount and reservoirs with low elevation are more sensitive to inflow amount than others.

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

Drought is one of the most relevant natural disasters, especially in arid regions such as Iran. One of the requirements to access reliable drought monitoring is long-term and continuous high-resolution precipitation data. Different climatic and global databases are being developed and made available in real time or near real time by different agencies and centers; however, for this purpose, these databases must be evaluated regionally and in different local climates. In this paper, a near real-time global climate model, a data assimilation system, and two gridded gauge-based datasets over Iran are evaluated. The ground truth data include 50 gauges from the period of 1980 to 2010. Drought analysis was carried out by means of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 2-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales. Although the results show spatial variations, overall the two gauge-based datasets perform better than the models. In addition, the results are more reliable for the western portion of the Zagros Range and the eastern region of the country. The analysis of the onsets of the 6-month moderate drought with at least 3 months’ persistence indicates that all datasets have a better performance over the western portion of the Zagros Range, but display poor performance over the coast of the Caspian Sea. Base on the results of this study, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset is a preferred alternative for drought analysis in the region when gauge-based datasets are not available.

This study demonstrates the application of an improved Evolutionary optimization Algorithm (EA), titled Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization Method with Principal Component Analysis and Crowding Distance Operator (MOSPD), for the hydropower reservoir operation of the Oroville-Thermalito Complex (OTC) - a crucial head-water resource for the California State Water Project (SWP). In the OTC's water-hydropower joint management study, the nonlinearity of hydropower generation and the reservoir's water elevation-storage relationship are explicitly formulated by polynomial function in order to closely match realistic situations and reduce linearization approximation errors. Comparison among different curve-fitting methods is conducted to understand the impact of the simplification of reservoir topography. In the optimization algorithm development, techniques of crowding distance and principal component analysis are implemented to improve the diversity and convergence of the optimal solutions towards and along the Pareto optimal set in the objective space. A comparative evaluation among the new algorithm MOSPD, the original Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization Method (MOCOM), the Multi-Objective Differential Evolution method (MODE), the Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA), the Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing approach (MOSA), and the Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization scheme (MOPSO) is conducted using the benchmark functions. The results show that best the MOSPD algorithm demonstrated the best and most consistent performance when compared with other algorithms on the test problems. The newly developed algorithm (MOSPD) is further applied to the OTC reservoir releasing problem during the snow melting season in 1998 (wet year), 2000 (normal year) and 2001 (dry year), in which the more spreading and converged non-dominated solutions of MOSPD provide decision makers with better operational alternatives for effectively and efficiently managing the OTC reservoirs in response to the different climates, especially drought, which has become more and more severe and frequent in California.

Assessing the uncertainties and understanding the deficiencies of climate models are fundamental to developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to understand how well Coupled Model Intercomparison-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations replicate ground-based observations of continental drought areas and their trends. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble encompasses the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ground-based observations of area under drought at all time steps. However, most model members overestimate the areas under extreme drought, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the results show that the time series of observations and CMIP5 simulations of areas under drought exhibit more variability in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The trend analysis of areas under drought reveals that the observational data exhibit a significant positive trend at the significance level of 0.05 over all land areas. The observed trend is reproduced by about three-fourths of the CMIP5 models when considering total land areas in drought. While models are generally consistent with observations at a global (or hemispheric) scale, most models do not agree with observed regional drying and wetting trends. Over many regions, at most 40% of the CMIP5 models are in agreement with the trends of CRU observations. The drying/wetting trends calculated using the 3 months Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values show better agreement with the corresponding CRU values than with the observed annual mean precipitation rates. Pixel-scale evaluation of CMIP5 models indicates that no single model demonstrates an overall superior performance relative to the other models.

Study region: Morocco (excluding Western Sahara). Study focus: This study evaluated Moroccan precipitation, dynamically downscaled (0.18-degree) from three runs of the studied GCM ECHAM5/MPI-OM, under the present-day (1971-2000/20C3M) and future (2036-2065/A1B) climate scenarios. The spatial and quantitative properties of the downscaled precipitation were evaluated by a verified, fine-resolution reference. The effectiveness of the hydrologic responses, driven by the downscaled precipitation, was further evaluated for the study region over the upstream watershed of Oum er Rbia River located in Central Morocco. New hydrological insights for the region: The raw downscaling runs reasonably featured the spatial properties but quantitatively misrepresented the mean and extreme intensities of present-day precipitation. Two proposed bias correction approaches, namely stationary Quantile-Mapping (QM) and non-stationary Equidistant CDF Matching model (EDCDFm), successfully reduced the system biases existing in the raw downscaling runs. However, both raw and corrected runs projected great diversity in terms of the quantity of future precipitation. Hydrologic simulations performed by a well-calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model successfully reproduced the present-day streamflow. The driven flows were identified highly correlated with the effectiveness of the downscaled precipitation. The future flows were projected to be markedly diverse, mainly due to the varied precipitation projections. Two of the three flow simulation runs projected slight to severe drying scenarios, while another projected an opposite trend for the evaluated future period.

In this study, a regional climate model (RCM) is employed to investigate the effect of irrigation on hydrology over California through implementing a “realistic irrigation” scheme. Our results indicate that the RCM with a realistic irrigation scheme commonly practiced in California can capture the soil moisture and evapotranspiration (ET) variation very well in comparison with the available in situ and remote sensing data. The RCM results show significant improvement in comparison with those outputs from the default run and the commonly used runs with fixed soil moisture at field capacity. Furthermore, the model reproduces the observed decreasing trends of the reference ET (i.e., ET0) from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). The observed decreasing trend is most likely due to the decreasing trend of downward solar radiation shown by models and CIMIS observations. This issue is fundamental in projecting future irrigation water demand. The deep soil percolation rate changes depending on the irrigation method and irrigation duration. Finally, the model results show that precipitation change due to irrigation in California is relatively small in amount and mainly occurs along the midlatitudes in the western United States.

Precipitation is one of the major variables for many applications and disciplines related to water resources and the geophysical Earth system. Satellite retrieval systems, rain-gauge networks, and radar systems are complementary to each other in terms of their coverage and capability of monitoring precipitation. Satellite-rainfall estimate systems produce data with global coverage that can provide information in areas for which data from other sources are unavailable. Without referring to ground measurements, satellite-based estimates can be biased and, although some gauge-adjusted satellite-precipitation products have been already developed, an effective way of integrating multi-sources of precipitation information is still a challenge.In this study, a specific area, the Sicilia Island (Italy), has been selected for the evaluation of satellite-precipitation products based on rain-gauge data. This island is located in the Mediterranean Sea, with a particular climatology and morphology, which can be considered an interesting test site for satellite-precipitation products in the European mid-latitude area. Four satellite products (CMORPH, PERSIANN, PERSIANN-CCS, and TMPA-RT) and two GPCP-adjusted products (TMPA and PERSIANN Adjusted) have been selected. Evaluation and comparison of selected products is performed with reference to data provided by the rain-gauge network of the Island Sicilia and by using statistical and graphical tools. Particular attention is paid to bias issues shown both by only-satellite and adjusted products. In order to investigate the current and potential possibilities of improving estimates by means of adjustment procedures using GPCC ground precipitation, the data have been retrieved separately and compared directly with the reference rain-gauge network data set of the study area.Results show that bias is still considerable for all satellite products, then some considerations about larger area climatology, PMW-retrieval algorithms, and GPCC data are discussed to address this issue, along with the spatial and seasonal characterization of results. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

The complex temporal heterogeneity of rainfall coupled with mountainous physiographic context makes a great challenge in the development of accurate short-term rainfall forecasts. This study aims to explore the effectiveness of multiple rainfall sources (gauge measurement, and radar and satellite products) for assimilation-based multi-sensor precipitation estimates and make multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasts based on the assimilated precipitation. Bias correction procedures for both radar and satellite precipitation products were first built, and the radar and satellite precipitation products were generated through the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors (QPESUMS) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), respectively. Next, the synthesized assimilated precipitation was obtained by merging three precipitation sources (gauges, radars and satellites) according to their individual weighting factors optimized by nonlinear search methods. Finally, the multi-step-ahead rainfall forecasting was carried out by using the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The Shihmen Reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan was the study area, where 641 hourly data sets of thirteen historical typhoon events were collected. Results revealed that the bias adjustments in QPESUMS and PERSIANN-CCS products did improve the accuracy of these precipitation products (in particular, 30-60% improvement rates for the QPESUMS, in terms of RMSE), and the adjusted PERSIANN-CCS and QPESUMS individually provided about 10% and 24% contribution accordingly to the assimilated precipitation. As far as rainfall forecasting is concerned, the results demonstrated that the ANFIS fed with the assimilated precipitation provided reliable and stable forecasts with the correlation coefficients higher than 0.85 and 0.72 for one- and two-hour-ahead rainfall forecasting, respectively. The obtained forecasting results are very valuable information for the flood warning in the study watershed during typhoon periods. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.