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In settings with high tuberculosis (TB) endemicity, distinct genotypes of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) often differ in prevalence. However, the factors leading to these differences remain poorly understood. Here we studied the MTBC population in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania over a six-year period, using 1,082 unique patient-derived MTBC whole-genome sequences (WGS) and associated clinical data. We show that the TB epidemic in Dar es Salaam is dominated by multiple MTBC genotypes introduced to Tanzania from different parts of the world during the last 300 years. The most common MTBC genotypes deriving from these introductions exhibited differences in transmission rates and in the duration of the infectious period, but little differences in overall fitness, as measured by the effective reproductive number. Moreover, measures of disease severity and bacterial load indicated no differences in virulence between these genotypes during active TB. Instead, the combination of an early introduction and a high transmission rate accounted for the high prevalence of L3.1.1, the most dominant MTBC genotype in this setting. Yet, a longer co-existence with the host population did not always result in a higher transmission rate, suggesting that distinct life-history traits have evolved in the different MTBC genotypes. Taken together, our results point to bacterial factors as important determinants of the TB epidemic in Dar es Salaam.

BackgroundMolecular diagnostics are considered the most promising route to achieving rapid, universal drug susceptibility testing for Mycobacterium tuberculosiscomplex (MTBC). We aimed to generate a WHO endorsed catalogue of mutations to serve as a global standard for interpreting molecular information for drug resistance prediction.MethodsA candidate gene approach was used to identify mutations as associated with resistance, or consistent with susceptibility, for 13 WHO endorsed anti-tuberculosis drugs. 38,215 MTBC isolates with paired whole-genome sequencing and phenotypic drug susceptibility testing data were amassed from 45 countries. For each mutation, a contingency table of binary phenotypes and presence or absence of the mutation computed positive predictive value, and Fisher's exact tests generated odds ratios and Benjamini-Hochberg corrected p-values. Mutations were graded as Associated with Resistance if present in at least 5 isolates, if the odds ratio was >1 with a statistically significant corrected p-value, and if the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval on the positive predictive value for phenotypic resistance was >25%. A series of expert rules were applied for final confidence grading of each mutation.Findings15,667 associations were computed for 13,211 unique mutations linked to one or more drugs. 1,149/15,667 (7·3%) mutations were classified as associated with phenotypic resistance and 107/15,667 (0·7%) were deemed consistent with susceptibility. For rifampicin, isoniazid, ethambutol, fluoroquinolones, and streptomycin, the mutations' pooled sensitivity was >80%. Specificity was over 95% for all drugs except ethionamide (91·4%), moxifloxacin (91·6%) and ethambutol (93·3%). Only two resistance mutations were classified for bedaquiline, delamanid, clofazimine, and linezolid as prevalence of phenotypic resistance was low for these drugs.InterpretationThis first WHO endorsed catalogue of molecular targets for MTBC drug susceptibility testing provides a global standard for resistance interpretation. Its existence should encourage the implementation of molecular diagnostics by National Tuberculosis Programmes.FundingUNITAID, Wellcome, MRC, BMGF.