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Earth system models (ESMs) typically simplify the representation of land surface spectral albedo to two values, which correspond to the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, 400–700 nm) and the near infrared (NIR, 700–2,500 nm) spectral bands. However, the availability of hyperspectral observations now allows for a more direct retrieval of ecological parameters and reduction of uncertainty in surface reflectance. To investigate sensitivity and quantify biases of incorporating hyperspectral albedo information into ESMs, we examine how shortwave soil albedo affects surface radiative forcing and simulations of the carbon and water cycles. Results reveal that the use of two broadband values to represent soil albedo can introduce systematic radiative-forcing differences compared to a hyperspectral representation. Specifically, we estimate soil albedo biases of ±0.2 over desert areas, which can result in spectrally integrated radiative forcing divergences of up to 30 W m−2, primarily due to discrepancies in the blue (404–504 nm) and far-red (702–747 nm) regions. Furthermore, coupled land-atmosphere simulations indicate a significant difference in net solar flux at the top of the atmosphere (>3.3 W m−2), which can impact global energy fluxes, rainfall, temperature, and photosynthesis. Finally, simulations show that considering the hyperspectrally resolved soil reflectance leads to increased maximum daily temperatures under current and future CO2 concentrations.

Recent progress in satellite observations has provided unprecedented opportunities to monitor vegetation activity at global scale. However, a major challenge in fully utilizing remotely sensed data to constrain land surface models (LSMs) lies in inconsistencies between simulated and observed quantities. For example, gross primary productivity (GPP) and transpiration (T) that traditional LSMs simulate are not directly measurable from space, although they can be inferred from spaceborne observations using assumptions that are inconsistent with those LSMs. In comparison, canopy reflectance and fluorescence spectra that satellites can detect are not modeled by traditional LSMs. To bridge these quantities, we presented an overview of the next generation land model developed within the Climate Modeling Alliance (CliMA), and simulated global GPP, T, and hyperspectral canopy radiative transfer (RT; 400–2,500 nm for reflectance, 640–850 nm for fluorescence) at hourly time step and 1° spatial resolution using CliMA Land. CliMA Land predicts vegetation indices and outgoing radiances, including solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and near infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) for any given sun-sensor geometry. The spatial patterns of modeled GPP, T, SIF, NDVI, EVI, and NIRv correlate significantly with existing data-driven products (mean R2 = 0.777 for 9 products). CliMA Land would be also useful in high temporal resolution simulations, for example, providing insights into when GPP, SIF, and NIRv diverge.

Humid tropical forests play a dominant role in the functioning of Earth but are under increasing threat from changes in land use and climate. How forest vulnerability varies across space and time and what level of stress forests can tolerate before facing a tipping point are poorly understood. Here, we develop a tropical forest vulnerability index (TFVI) to detect and evaluate the vulnerability of global tropical forests to threats across space and time. We show that climate change together with land-use change have slowed the recovery rate of forest carbon cycling. Temporal autocorrelation, as an indicator of this slow recovery, increases substantially for above-ground biomass, gross primary production, and evapotranspiration when climate stress reaches a critical level. Forests in the Americas exhibit extensive vulnerability to these stressors, while in Africa, forests show relative resilience to climate, and in Asia reveal more vulnerability to land use and fragmentation. TFVI can systematically track the response of tropical forests to multiple stressors and provide early-warning signals for regions undergoing critical transitions.

Tropical forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation not only alters carbon stocks and carbon fluxes, but also impacts physical land surface properties such as albedo and roughness length. Such impacts are poorly quantified to date due to difficulties in accessing and maintaining observational infrastructures, as well as the lack of proper modeling tools for capturing the interactions among biophysical properties, ecosystem demography, canopy structure, and biogeochemical cycling in tropical forests. As a first step to address these limitations, we implemented a selective logging module into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) by mimicking the ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical processes following a logging event. The model can specify the timing and aerial extent of logging events, splitting the logged forest patch into disturbed and intact patches; determine the survivorship of cohorts in the disturbed patch; and modifying the biomass and necromass (total mass of coarse woody debris and litter) pools following logging. We parameterized the logging module to reproduce a selective logging experiment at the Tapajós National Forest in Brazil and benchmarked model outputs against available field measurements. Our results suggest that the model permits the coexistence of early and late successional functional types and realistically characterizes the seasonality of water and carbon fluxes and stocks, the forest structure and composition, and the ecosystem succession following disturbance. However, the current version of FATES overestimates water stress in the dry season and therefore fails to capture seasonal variation in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Moreover, we observed a bias towards low stem density and leaf area when compared to observations, suggesting that improvements are needed in both carbon allocation and establishment of trees. The effects of logging were assessed by different logging scenarios to represent reduced impact and conventional logging practices, both with high and low logging intensities. The model simulations suggest that in comparison to old-growth forests the logged forests rapidly recover water and energy fluxes in 1 to 3 years. In contrast, the recovery times for carbon stocks, forest structure, and composition are more than 30 years depending on logging practices and intensity. This study lays the foundation to simulate land use change and forest degradation in FATES, which will be an effective tool to directly represent forest management practices and regeneration in the context of Earth system models.

There is large uncertainty whether Amazon forests will remain a carbon sink as atmospheric CO2 increases. Hence, we simulated an old-growth tropical forest using six versions of four terrestrial models differing in scale of vegetation structure and representation of biogeochemical (BGC) cycling, all driven with CO2 forcing from the preindustrial period to 2100. The models were benchmarked against tree inventory and eddy covariance data from a Brazilian site for present-day predictions. All models predicted positive vegetation growth that outpaced mortality, leading to continual increases in present-day biomass accumulation. Notably, the two vegetation demographic models (VDMs) (ED2 and ELM-FATES) always predicted positive stem diameter growth in all size classes. The field data, however, indicated that a quarter of canopy trees didn't grow over the 15-year period, and while high interannual variation existed, biomass change was near neutral. With a doubling of CO2, three of the four models predicted an appreciable biomass sink (0.77 to 1.24 Mg ha−1 year−1). ELMv1-ECA, the only model used here that includes phosphorus constraints, predicted the lowest biomass sink relative to initial biomass stocks (+21%), lower than the other BGC model, CLM5 (+48%). Models projections differed primarily through variations in nutrient constraints, then carbon allocation, initial biomass, and density-dependent mortality. The VDM's performance was similar or better than the BGC models run in carbon-only mode, suggesting that nutrient competition in VDMs will improve predictions. We demonstrate that VDMs are comparable to nondemographic (i.e., “big-leaf”) models but also include finer scale demography and competition that can be evaluated against field observations.

In the version of this Article originally published, the first sentence of the Acknowledgements “We would like to thank D. Papale, M. Zapparoli, L. Portoghesi, M. di Porcia e Brugnera, and H. Verbeeck for feedback that helped improve the manuscript.” should have been “We would like to thank: F. Berzaghi's PhD thesis committee: D. Papale, M. Zapparoli and L. Portoghesi; A. Swann and S. Wasser for their conception of this idea and their mentorship during the initial work on the project; and M. di Porcia e Brugnera and H. Verbeeck for feedback that helped improve the manuscript.” This has now been amended.

The Ecosystem Demography model version 2.2 (ED-2.2) is a terrestrial biosphere model that simulates the biophysical, ecological, and biogeochemical dynamics of vertically and horizontally heterogeneous terrestrial ecosystems. In a companion paper (Longo et al., 2019a), we described how the model solves the energy, water, and carbon cycles, and verified the high degree of conservation of these properties in long-term simulations that include long-term (multi-decadal) vegetation dynamics. Here, we present a detailed assessment of the model's ability to represent multiple processes associated with the biophysical and biogeochemical cycles in Amazon forests. We use multiple measurements from eddy covariance towers, forest inventory plots, and regional remote-sensing products to assess the model's ability to represent biophysical, physiological, and ecological processes at multiple timescales, ranging from subdaily to century long. The ED-2.2 model accurately describes the vertical distribution of light, water fluxes, and the storage of water, energy, and carbon in the canopy air space, the regional distribution of biomass in tropical South America, and the variability of biomass as a function of environmental drivers. In addition, ED-2.2 qualitatively captures several emergent properties of the ecosystem found in observations, specifically observed relationships between aboveground biomass, mortality rates, and wood density; however, the slopes of these relationships were not accurately captured. We also identified several limitations, including the model's tendency to overestimate the magnitude and seasonality of heterotrophic respiration and to overestimate growth rates in a nutrient-poor tropical site. The evaluation presented here highlights the potential of incorporating structural and functional heterogeneity within biomes in Earth system models (ESMs) and to realistically represent their impacts on energy, water, and carbon cycles. We also identify several priorities for further model development.

Earth system models (ESMs) have been developed to represent the role of terrestrial ecosystems on the energy, water, and carbon cycles. However, many ESMs still lack representation of within-ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity. In this paper, we present the Ecosystem Demography model version 2.2 (ED-2.2). In ED-2.2, the biophysical and physiological processes account for the horizontal and vertical heterogeneity of the ecosystem: The energy, water, and carbon cycles are solved separately for a series of vegetation cohorts (groups of individual plants of similar size and plant functional type) distributed across a series of spatially implicit patches (representing collections of microenvironments that have a similar disturbance history).We define the equations that describe the energy, water, and carbon cycles in terms of total energy, water, and carbon, which simplifies the differential equations and guarantees excellent conservation of these quantities in long-term simulation (

Coarse dead wood is an important component of forest carbon stocks, but it is rarely measured in Amazon forests and is typically excluded from regional forest carbon budgets. Our study is based on line intercept sampling for fallen coarse dead wood conducted along 103 transects with a total length of 48 km matched with forest inventory plots where standing coarse dead wood was measured in the footprints of larger areas of airborne lidar acquisitions. We developed models to relate lidar metrics and Landsat time series variables to coarse dead wood stocks for intact, logged, burned, or logged and burned forests. Canopy characteristics such as gap area produced significant individual relations for logged forests. For total fallen plus standing coarse dead wood (hereafter defined as total coarse dead wood), the relative root mean square error for models with only lidar metrics ranged from 33% in logged forest to up to 36% in burned forests. The addition of historical information improved model performance slightly for intact forests (31% against 35% relative root mean square error), not justifying the use of a number of disturbance events from historical satellite images (Landsat) with airborne lidar data. Lidarderived estimates of total coarse dead wood compared favorably with independent ground-based sampling for areas up to several hundred hectares. The relations found between total coarse dead wood and variables quantifying forest structure derived from airborne lidar highlight the opportunity to quantify this important but rarely measured component of forest carbon over large areas in tropical forests.

Land conversion and changing climate are expected to significantly alter tropical forest hydrology. We used a land surface model integrated with a river routing scheme to analyze the hydrological alterations expected in the Tapajós River basin, a large portion of the Brazilian Amazon, caused by two environmental drivers: climate and land use. The model was forced with two future climate scenarios (years 2026–2045) from the Earth System Model HadGem2-ES with moderate (+4.5 W/m2 radiative forcing value in the year 2100 with respect to preindustrial levels) and severe (+8.5 W/m2) representative atmospheric carbon dioxide pathways (Representative Concentration Pathways). We tested the sensitivity of our results to the uncertainty in future climate projections by running simulations with IPSL-CM5 (wettest scenarios) and GISS-E2 (driest scenarios). Human land use effects on vegetation were evaluated using a limited and an extreme deforestation scenario. Our analysis indicates that climate change is predicted to reduce river flows across seasons (up to 20%) and bring a considerable shift in flow seasonality toward a later onset (nearly 1.5 months) and increase in interannual variability. While land use change partially counteracts the climate-driven diminishing trend in river flows, it is expected to contribute to a further increase in interannual and intraannual variability. From a water management perspective, the overall reduction of river flows and their increased variability, combined with the shift and the shortening of the wet season, could potentially affect the productivity of the large hydropower systems planned for the region and the growing demand for agricultural and transport expansion.

Forest degradation is common in tropical landscapes, but estimates of the extent and duration of degradation impacts are highly uncertain. In particular, selective logging is a form of forest degradation that alters canopy structure and function, with persistent ecological impacts following forest harvest. In this study, we employed airborne laser scanning in 2012 and 2014 to estimate three-dimensional changes in the forest canopy and understory structure and aboveground biomass following reduced-impact selective logging in a site in Eastern Amazon. Also, we developed a binary classification model to distinguish intact versus logged forests. We found that canopy gap frequency was significantly higher in logged versus intact forests even after 8 years (the time span of our study). In contrast, the understory of logged areas could not be distinguished from the understory of intact forests after 6–7 years of logging activities. Measuring new gap formation between LiDAR acquisitions in 2012 and 2014, we showed rates 2 to 7 times higher in logged areas compared to intact forests. New gaps were spatially clumped with 76 to 89% of new gaps within 5 m of prior logging damage. The biomass dynamics in areas logged between the two LiDAR acquisitions was clearly detected with an average estimated loss of −4.14 ± 0.76 MgC ha−1 y−1. In areas recovering from logging prior to the first acquisition, we estimated biomass gains close to zero. Together, our findings unravel the magnitude and duration of delayed impacts of selective logging in forest structural attributes, confirm the high potential of airborne LiDAR multitemporal data to characterize forest degradation in the tropics, and present a novel approach to forest classification using LiDAR data.

In Amazon forests, the relative contributions of climate, phenology, and disturbance to net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) are not well understood. To partition influences across various timescales, we use a statistical model to represent eddy-covariance-derived NEE in an evergreen eastern Amazon forest as a constant response to changing meteorology and phenology throughout a decade. Our best fit model represented hourly NEE variations as changes due to sunlight, while seasonal variations arose from phenology influencing photosynthesis and from rainfall influencing ecosystem respiration, where phenology was asynchronous with dry-season onset. We compared annual model residuals with biometric forest surveys to estimate impacts of drought disturbance. We found that our simple model represented hourly and monthly variations in NEE well (R 2 Combining double low line 0.81 and 0.59, respectively). Modeled phenology explained 1 % of hourly and 26 % of monthly variations in observed NEE, whereas the remaining modeled variability was due to changes in meteorology. We did not find evidence to support the common assumption that the forest phenology was seasonally light- or water-triggered. Our model simulated annual NEE well, with the exception of 2002, the first year of our data record, which contained 1.2 MgC ha'1 of residual net emissions, because photosynthesis was anomalously low. Because a severe drought occurred in 1998, we hypothesized that this drought caused a persistent, multi-year depression of photosynthesis. Our results suggest drought can have lasting impacts on photosynthesis, possibly via partial damage to still-living trees.

Despite sustained declines in Amazon deforestation, forest degradation from logging and fire continues to threaten carbon stocks, habitat, and biodiversity in frontier forests along the Amazon arc of deforestation. Limited data on the magnitude of carbon losses and rates of carbon recovery following forest degradation have hindered carbon accounting efforts and contributed to incomplete national reporting to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). We combined annual time series of Landsat imagery and high-density airborne lidar data to characterize the variability, magnitude, and persistence of Amazon forest degradation impacts on aboveground carbon density (ACD) and canopy structure. On average, degraded forests contained 45.1% of the carbon stocks in intact forests, and differences persisted even after 15 years of regrowth. In comparison to logging, understory fires resulted in the largest and longest-lasting differences in ACD. Heterogeneity in burned forest structure varied by fire severity and frequency. Forests with a history of one, two, and three or more fires retained only 54.4%, 25.2%, and 7.6% of intact ACD, respectively, when measured after a year of regrowth. Unlike the additive impact of successive fires, selective logging before burning did not explain additional variability in modeled ACD loss and recovery of burned forests. Airborne lidar also provides quantitative measures of habitat structure that can aid the estimation of co-benefits of avoided degradation. Notably, forest carbon stocks recovered faster than attributes of canopy structure that are critical for biodiversity in tropical forests, including the abundance of tall trees. We provide the first comprehensive look-up table of emissions factors for specific degradation pathways at standard reporting intervals in the Amazon. Estimated carbon loss and recovery trajectories provide an important foundation for assessing the long-term contributions from forest degradation to regional carbon cycling and advance our understanding of the current state of frontier forests.

Systematic biases in eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) are ubiquitous in forests when turbulence is low at night. We propose an alternative to the conventional bias correction, the friction velocity (u*) filter, by hypothesizing that these biases have two separate, concurrent causes: (1) a subcanopy CO2 storage pool that eludes typical storage measurements, creating a turbulence-dependent bias, and (2) advective divergence loss of CO2, creating a turbulence-independent bias. We correct for (1) using a simple parametric model of missing storage (MS). Prior experiments have inferred (2) directly from atmospheric measurements (DRAINO). For sites at which DRAINO experiments have not been performed or are infeasible, we estimate (2) empirically using a PAR-extrapolated advective respiration loss (PEARL) approach. We compare u* filter estimates of advection and NEE to MS-PEARL estimates at one temperate forest and two tropical forest sites. We find that for tropical forests, u* filters can produce a range of extreme NEE estimates, from long-term forest carbon emission to sequestration, that diverge from independent assessments and are not physically sustainable. Our MS model eliminates the dependence of nighttime NEE on u*, consistent with findings from DRAINO studies that nighttime advective losses of CO2 are often not dependent on the strength of turbulence. Our PEARL estimates of mean advective loss agree with available DRAINO measurements. The MS-PEARL correction to long-term NEE produces better agreement with forest inventories at all three sites. Moreover, the correction retains all nighttime eddy covariance data and is therefore more widely applicable than the u* filter approach, which rejects substantial nighttime data—up to 93% at one of the tropical sites. The full MS-PEARL NEE correction is therefore an equally defensible and more practical alternative to the u* filter, but leads to different conclusions about the resulting carbon balance. Our results therefore highlight the need to investigate which approach's underlying hypotheses are more physically realistic.

Deforestation rates have declined in the Brazilian Amazon since 2005, yet degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation has continued in frontier forests. In this study we quantified the aboveground carbon density (ACD) in intact and degraded forests using the largest data set of integrated forest inventory plots (n = 359) and airborne lidar data (18,000 ha) assembled to date for the Brazilian Amazon. We developed statistical models relating inventory ACD estimates to lidar metrics that explained 70% of the variance across forest types. Airborne lidar-ACD estimates for intact forests ranged between 5.0 ± 2.5 and 31.9 ± 10.8 kg C m−2. Degradation carbon losses were large and persistent. Sites that burned multiple times within a decade lost up to 15.0 ± 0.7 kg C m−2 (94%) of ACD. Forests that burned nearly 15 years ago had between 4.1 ± 0.5 and 6.8 ± 0.3 kg C m−2 (22–40%) less ACD than intact forests. Even for low-impact logging disturbances, ACD was between 0.7 ± 0.3 and 4.4 ± 0.4 kg C m−2 (4–21%) lower than unlogged forests. Comparing biomass estimates from airborne lidar to existing biomass maps, we found that regional and pantropical products consistently overestimated ACD in degraded forests, underestimated ACD in intact forests, and showed little sensitivity to fires and logging. Fine-scale heterogeneity in ACD across intact and degraded forests highlights the benefits of airborne lidar for carbon mapping. Differences between airborne lidar and regional biomass maps underscore the need to improve and update biomass estimates for dynamic land use frontiers, to better characterize deforestation and degradation carbon emissions for regional carbon budgets and Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+).

The complex three-dimensional (3-D) structure of tropical forests generates a diversity of light environments for canopy and understory trees. Understanding diurnal and seasonal changes in light availability is critical for interpreting measurements of net ecosystem exchange and improving ecosystem models. Here, we used the Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model to simulate leaf absorption of photosynthetically active radiation (IAPAR) for an Amazon forest. The 3-D model scene was developed from airborne lidar data, and local measurements of leaf reflectance, aerosols, and PAR were used to model lAPAR under direct and diffuse illumination conditions. Simulated lAPAR under clear-sky and cloudy conditions was corrected for light saturation effects to estimate light utilization, the fraction of lAPAR available for photosynthesis. Although the fraction of incoming PAR absorbed by leaves was consistent throughout the year (0.80-0.82), light utilization varied seasonally (0.67-0.74), with minimum values during the Amazon dry season. Shadowing and light saturation effects moderated potential gains in forest productivity from increasing PAR during dry-season months when the diffuse fraction from clouds and aerosols was low. Comparisons between DART and other models highlighted the role of 3-D forest structure to account for seasonal changes in light utilization. Our findings highlight how directional illumination and forest 3-D structure combine to influence diurnal and seasonal variability in light utilization, independent of further changes in leaf area, leaf age, or environmental controls on canopy photosynthesis. Changing illumination geometry constitutes an alternative biophysical explanation for observed seasonality in Amazon forest productivity without changes in canopy phenology.

A survey of the inner Galaxy region of Galactic longitude l ∈[+15,+50] and latitude b ∈ [-4, +4] is performed using one-third of the High Altitude Water Cherenkov Observatory, operated during ts construction phase. To address the ambiguities arising from unresolved sources in the data, we use a maximum likelihood technique to identify point source candidates. Ten sources and candidate sources are identified in this analysis. Eight of these are associated with known TeV sources but not all have ifferential fluxes that are compatible with previous measurements. Three sources are detected with significances >5 sigma; after accounting for statistical trials, and are associated with known TeV sources.

A survey of the inner Galaxy region of Galactic longitude l ∈[+15,+50] and latitude b ∈ [-4, +4] is performed using one-third of the High Altitude Water Cherenkov Observatory, operated during ts construction phase. To address the ambiguities arising from unresolved sources in the data, we use a maximum likelihood technique to identify point source candidates. Ten sources and candidate sources are identified in this analysis. Eight of these are associated with known TeV sources but not all have ifferential fluxes that are compatible with previous measurements. Three sources are detected with significances >5 sigma; after accounting for statistical trials, and are associated with known TeV sources.

Primordial Black Holes (PBHs) are gravitationally collapsed objects that may have been created by density fluctuations in the early universe and could have arbitrarily small masses down to the Planck scale. Hawking showed that due to quantum effects, a black hole has a temperature inversely proportional to its mass and will emit all species of fundamental particles thermally. PBHs with initial masses of ∼5.0 × 1014 g should be expiring in the present epoch with bursts of high-energy particles, including gamma radiation in the GeV-TeV energy range. The Milagro high energy observatory, which operated from 2000 to 2008, is sensitive to the high end of the PBH evaporation gamma-ray spectrum. Due to its large field-of-view, more than 90% duty cycle and sensitivity up to 100 TeV gamma rays, the Milagro observatory is well suited to perform a search for PBH bursts. Based on a search on the Milagro data, we report new PBH burst rate density upper limits over a range of PBH observation times. In addition, we report the sensitivity of the Milagro successor, the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory, to PBH evaporation events.

VAMOS1 was a prototype detector built in 2011 at an altitude of 4100 m a.s.l. in the state of Puebla, Mexico. The aim of VAMOS was to finalize the design, construction techniques and data acquisition system of the HAWC observatory. HAWC is an air-shower array currently under construction at the same site of VAMOS with the purpose to study the TeV sky. The VAMOS setup included six water Cherenkov detectors and two different data acquisition systems. It was in operation between October 2011 and May 2012 with an average live time of 30%. Besides the scientific verification purposes, the eight months of data were used to obtain the results presented in this paper: the detector response to the Forbush decrease of March 2012, and the analysis of possible emission, at energies above 30 GeV, for long gamma-ray bursts GRB111016B and GRB120328B.

The first limits on the prompt emission from the long gamma-ray burst (GRB) 130427A in the >100 GeV energy band are reported. GRB 130427A was the most powerful burst ever detected with a redshift z ≲ 0.5 and featured the longest lasting emission above 100 MeV. The energy spectrum extends at least up to 95 GeV, clearly in the range observable by the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Gamma-Ray Observatory, a new extensive air shower detector currently under construction in central Mexico. The burst occurred under unfavorable observation conditions, low in the sky and when HAWC was running 10% of the final detector. Based on the observed light curve at MeV-GeV energies, eight different time periods have been searched for prompt and delayed emission from this GRB. In all cases, no statistically significant excess of counts has been found and upper limits have been placed. It is shown that a similar GRB close to zenith would be easily detected by the full HAWC detector, which will be completed soon. The detection rate of the full HAWC detector may be as high as one to two GRBs per year. A detection could provide important information regarding the high energy processes at work and the observation of a possible cut-off beyond the Fermi Large Area Telescope energy range could be the signature of gamma-ray absorption, either in the GRB or along the line of sight due to the extragalactic background light.

The first limits on the prompt emission from the long gamma-ray burst (GRB) 130427A in the >100 GeV energy band are reported. GRB 130427A was the most powerful burst ever detected with a redshift z ≲ 0.5 and featured the longest lasting emission above 100 MeV. The energy spectrum extends at least up to 95 GeV, clearly in the range observable by the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Gamma-Ray Observatory, a new extensive air shower detector currently under construction in central Mexico. The burst occurred under unfavorable observation conditions, low in the sky and when HAWC was running 10% of the final detector. Based on the observed light curve at MeV-GeV energies, eight different time periods have been searched for prompt and delayed emission from this GRB. In all cases, no statistically significant excess of counts has been found and upper limits have been placed. It is shown that a similar GRB close to zenith would be easily detected by the full HAWC detector, which will be completed soon. The detection rate of the full HAWC detector may be as high as one to two GRBs per year. A detection could provide important information regarding the high energy processes at work and the observation of a possible cut-off beyond the Fermi Large Area Telescope energy range could be the signature of gamma-ray absorption, either in the GRB or along the line of sight due to the extragalactic background light.

This work investigates how the integrated land use of northern South America has affected the present day regional patterns of hydrology. A model of the terrestrial ecosystems (ecosystem demography model 2: ED2) is combined with an atmospheric model (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System: BRAMS). Two realizations of the structure and composition of terrestrial vegetation are used as the sole differences in boundary conditions that drive two simulations. One realization captures the present day vegetation condition that includes deforestation and land conversion, the other is an estimate of the potential structure and composition of the region's vegetation without human influence. Model output is assessed for differences in resulting hydrometeorology. The simulations suggest that the history of land conversion in northern South America is not associated with a significant precipitation bias in the northern part of the continent, but has shown evidence of a negative bias in mean regional evapotranspiration and a positive bias in mean regional runoff. Also, negative anomalies in evaporation rates showed pattern similarity with areas where deforestation has occurred. In the central eastern Amazon there was an area where deforestation and abandonment had lead to an overall reduction of above-ground biomass, but this was accompanied by a shift in forest composition towards early successional functional types and grid-average-patterned increases in annual transpiration. Anomalies in annual precipitation showed mixed evidence of consistent patterning. Two focus areas were identified where more consistent precipitation anomalies formed, one in the Brazilian state of Pará where a dipole pattern formed, and one in the Bolivian Gran Chaco, where a negative anomaly was identified. These locations were scrutinized to understand the basis of their anomalous hydrometeorologic response. In both cases, deforestation led to increased total surface albedo, driving decreases in net radiation, boundary layer moist static energy and ultimately decreased convective precipitation. In the case of the Gran Chaco, decreased precipitation was also a result of decreased advective moisture transport, indicating that differences in local hydrometeorology may manifest via teleconnections with the greater region.

This work investigates how the integrated land use of northern South America has affected the present day regional patterns of hydrology. A model of the terrestrial ecosystems (ecosystem demography model 2: ED2) is combined with an atmospheric model (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System: BRAMS). Two realizations of the structure and composition of terrestrial vegetation are used as the sole differences in boundary conditions that drive two simulations. One realization captures the present day vegetation condition that includes deforestation and land conversion, the other is an estimate of the potential structure and composition of the region's vegetation without human influence. Model output is assessed for differences in resulting hydrometeorology. The simulations suggest that the history of land conversion in northern South America is not associated with a significant precipitation bias in the northern part of the continent, but has shown evidence of a negative bias in mean regional evapotranspiration and a positive bias in mean regional runoff. Also, negative anomalies in evaporation rates showed pattern similarity with areas where deforestation has occurred. In the central eastern Amazon there was an area where deforestation and abandonment had lead to an overall reduction of above-ground biomass, but this was accompanied by a shift in forest composition towards early successional functional types and grid-average-patterned increases in annual transpiration. Anomalies in annual precipitation showed mixed evidence of consistent patterning. Two focus areas were identified where more consistent precipitation anomalies formed, one in the Brazilian state of Pará where a dipole pattern formed, and one in the Bolivian Gran Chaco, where a negative anomaly was identified. These locations were scrutinized to understand the basis of their anomalous hydrometeorologic response. In both cases, deforestation led to increased total surface albedo, driving decreases in net radiation, boundary layer moist static energy and ultimately decreased convective precipitation. In the case of the Gran Chaco, decreased precipitation was also a result of decreased advective moisture transport, indicating that differences in local hydrometeorology may manifest via teleconnections with the greater region.

VAMOS1 was a prototype detector built in 2011 at an altitude of 4100 m a.s.l. in the state of Puebla, Mexico. The aim of VAMOS was to finalize the design, construction techniques and data acquisition system of the HAWC observatory. HAWC is an air-shower array currently under construction at the same site of VAMOS with the purpose to study the TeV sky. The VAMOS setup included six water Cherenkov detectors and two different data acquisition systems. It was in operation between October 2011 and May 2012 with an average live time of 30%. Besides the scientific verification purposes, the eight months of data were used to obtain the results presented in this paper: the detector response to the Forbush decrease of March 2012, and the analysis of possible emission, at energies above 30 GeV, for long gamma-ray bursts GRB111016B and GRB120328B.

Primordial Black Holes (PBHs) are gravitationally collapsed objects that may have been created by density fluctuations in the early universe and could have arbitrarily small masses down to the Planck scale. Hawking showed that due to quantum effects, a black hole has a temperature inversely proportional to its mass and will emit all species of fundamental particles thermally. PBHs with initial masses of ∼5.0 × 1014 g should be expiring in the present epoch with bursts of high-energy particles, including gamma radiation in the GeV-TeV energy range. The Milagro high energy observatory, which operated from 2000 to 2008, is sensitive to the high end of the PBH evaporation gamma-ray spectrum. Due to its large field-of-view, more than 90% duty cycle and sensitivity up to 100 TeV gamma rays, the Milagro observatory is well suited to perform a search for PBH bursts. Based on a search on the Milagro data, we report new PBH burst rate density upper limits over a range of PBH observation times. In addition, we report the sensitivity of the Milagro successor, the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory, to PBH evaporation events.

The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory is a wide field-of-view detector sensitive to gamma rays of 100 GeV to a few hundred TeV. Located in central Mexico at 19° North latitude and 4100 m above sea level, HAWC will observe gamma rays and cosmic rays with an array of water Cherenkov detectors. The full HAWC array is scheduled to be operational in Spring 2015. In this paper, we study the HAWC sensitivity to the gamma-ray signatures of high-mass (multi-TeV) dark matter annihilation. The HAWC observatory will be sensitive to diverse searches for dark matter annihilation, including annihilation from extended dark matter sources, the diffuse gamma-ray emission from dark matter annihilation, and gamma-ray emission from nonluminous dark matter subhalos. Here we consider the HAWC sensitivity to a subset of these sources, including dwarf galaxies, the M31 galaxy, the Virgo cluster, and the Galactic center. We simulate the HAWC response to gamma rays from these sources in several well-motivated dark matter annihilation channels. If no gamma-ray excess is observed, we show the limits HAWC can place on the dark matter cross section from these sources. In particular, in the case of dark matter annihilation into gauge bosons, HAWC will be able to detect a narrow range of dark matter masses to cross sections below thermal. HAWC should also be sensitive to nonthermal cross sections for masses up to nearly 1000 TeV. The constraints placed by HAWC on the dark matter cross section from known sources should be competitive with current limits in the mass range where HAWC has similar sensitivity. HAWC can additionally explore higher dark matter masses than are currently constrained.

The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory is a wide field-of-view detector sensitive to gamma rays of 100 GeV to a few hundred TeV. Located in central Mexico at 19° North latitude and 4100 m above sea level, HAWC will observe gamma rays and cosmic rays with an array of water Cherenkov detectors. The full HAWC array is scheduled to be operational in Spring 2015. In this paper, we study the HAWC sensitivity to the gamma-ray signatures of high-mass (multi-TeV) dark matter annihilation. The HAWC observatory will be sensitive to diverse searches for dark matter annihilation, including annihilation from extended dark matter sources, the diffuse gamma-ray emission from dark matter annihilation, and gamma-ray emission from nonluminous dark matter subhalos. Here we consider the HAWC sensitivity to a subset of these sources, including dwarf galaxies, the M31 galaxy, the Virgo cluster, and the Galactic center. We simulate the HAWC response to gamma rays from these sources in several well-motivated dark matter annihilation channels. If no gamma-ray excess is observed, we show the limits HAWC can place on the dark matter cross section from these sources. In particular, in the case of dark matter annihilation into gauge bosons, HAWC will be able to detect a narrow range of dark matter masses to cross sections below thermal. HAWC should also be sensitive to nonthermal cross sections for masses up to nearly 1000 TeV. The constraints placed by HAWC on the dark matter cross section from known sources should be competitive with current limits in the mass range where HAWC has similar sensitivity. HAWC can additionally explore higher dark matter masses than are currently constrained.

The High-Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Observatory is sensitive to gamma rays and charged cosmic rays at TeV energies. The detector is still under construction, but data acquisition with the partially deployed detector started in 2013. An analysis of the cosmic-ray arrival direction distribution based on 4.9 × 1010 events recorded between 2013 June and 2014 February shows anisotropy at the 10-4 level on angular scales of about 10°. The HAWC cosmic-ray sky map exhibits three regions of significantly enhanced cosmic-ray flux; two of these regions were first reported by the Milagro experiment. A third region coincides with an excess recently reported by the ARGO-YBJ experiment. An angular power spectrum analysis of the sky shows that all terms up to l = 15 contribute significantly to the excesses.

The High-Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Observatory is sensitive to gamma rays and charged cosmic rays at TeV energies. The detector is still under construction, but data acquisition with the partially deployed detector started in 2013. An analysis of the cosmic-ray arrival direction distribution based on 4.9 × 1010 events recorded between 2013 June and 2014 February shows anisotropy at the 10-4 level on angular scales of about 10°. The HAWC cosmic-ray sky map exhibits three regions of significantly enhanced cosmic-ray flux; two of these regions were first reported by the Milagro experiment. A third region coincides with an excess recently reported by the ARGO-YBJ experiment. An angular power spectrum analysis of the sky shows that all terms up to l = 15 contribute significantly to the excesses.

The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory is an array of large water Cherenkov detectors sensitive to gamma rays and hadronic cosmic rays in the energy band between 100 GeV and 100 TeV. The observatory will be used to measure high-energy protons and cosmic rays via detection of the energetic secondary particles reaching the ground when one of these particles interacts in the atmosphere above the detector. HAWC is under construction at a site 4100 meters above sea level on the northern slope of the volcano Sierra Negra, which is located in central Mexico at 19 N latitude. It is scheduled for completion in 2014. In this paper we estimate the sensitivity of the HAWC instrument to point-like and extended sources of gamma rays. The source fluxes are modeled using both unbroken power laws and power laws with exponential cutoffs. HAWC, in one year, is sensitive to point sources with integral power-law spectra as low as 5×10-13 cm-2sec-1 above 2 TeV (approximately 50 mCrab) over 5 sr of the sky. This is a conservative estimate based on simple event parameters and is expected to improve as the data analysis techniques are refined. We discuss known TeV sources and the scientific contributions that HAWC can make to our understanding of particle acceleration in these sources. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory is an array of large water Cherenkov detectors sensitive to gamma rays and hadronic cosmic rays in the energy band between 100 GeV and 100 TeV. The observatory will be used to measure high-energy protons and cosmic rays via detection of the energetic secondary particles reaching the ground when one of these particles interacts in the atmosphere above the detector. HAWC is under construction at a site 4100 meters above sea level on the northern slope of the volcano Sierra Negra, which is located in central Mexico at 19 N latitude. It is scheduled for completion in 2014. In this paper we estimate the sensitivity of the HAWC instrument to point-like and extended sources of gamma rays. The source fluxes are modeled using both unbroken power laws and power laws with exponential cutoffs. HAWC, in one year, is sensitive to point sources with integral power-law spectra as low as 5×10-13 cm-2sec-1 above 2 TeV (approximately 50 mCrab) over 5 sr of the sky. This is a conservative estimate based on simple event parameters and is expected to improve as the data analysis techniques are refined. We discuss known TeV sources and the scientific contributions that HAWC can make to our understanding of particle acceleration in these sources. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The High-Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Gamma-Ray Observatory is designed torecord air showers produced by cosmic rays and gamma rays between 100 GeV and100 TeV. Because of its large field of view and high livetime, HAWC iswell-suited to measure gamma rays from extended sources, diffuse emission, andtransient sources. We describe the sensitivity of HAWC to emission from theextended Cygnus region as well as other types of galactic diffuse emission;searches for flares from gamma-ray bursts and active galactic nuclei; and thefirst measurement of the Crab Nebula with HAWC-30.

We describe measurements of GeV and TeV cosmic rays with the High-AltitudeWater Cherenkov Gamma-Ray Observatory, or HAWC. The measurements include theobservation of the shadow of the moon; the observation of small-scale andlarge-scale angular clustering of the TeV cosmic rays; the prospects formeasurement of transient solar events with HAWC; and the observation of Forbushdecreases with the HAWC engineering array and HAWC-30.

The High-Altitude Water Cherenkov Gamma Ray Observatory (HAWC) is underconstruction 4100 meters above sea level at Sierra Negra, Mexico. We describethe design and cabling of the detector, the characterization of thephotomultipliers, and the timing calibration system. We also outline anext-generation detector based on the water Cherenkov technique.

The High-Altitude Water Cherenkov Gamma Ray Observatory (HAWC) is designed toperform a synoptic survey of the TeV sky. The high energy coverage of theexperiment will enable studies of fundamental physics beyond the StandardModel, and the large field of view of the detector will enable detailed studiesof cosmologically significant backgrounds and magnetic fields. We describe thesensitivity of the full HAWC array to these phenomena in five contributionsshown at the 33rd International Cosmic Ray Conference in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil(July 2013).

We describe measurements of GeV and TeV cosmic rays with the High-AltitudeWater Cherenkov Gamma-Ray Observatory, or HAWC. The measurements include theobservation of the shadow of the moon; the observation of small-scale andlarge-scale angular clustering of the TeV cosmic rays; the prospects formeasurement of transient solar events with HAWC; and the observation of Forbushdecreases with the HAWC engineering array and HAWC-30.

The High-Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Gamma-Ray Observatory is designed torecord air showers produced by cosmic rays and gamma rays between 100 GeV and100 TeV. Because of its large field of view and high livetime, HAWC iswell-suited to measure gamma rays from extended sources, diffuse emission, andtransient sources. We describe the sensitivity of HAWC to emission from theextended Cygnus region as well as other types of galactic diffuse emission;searches for flares from gamma-ray bursts and active galactic nuclei; and thefirst measurement of the Crab Nebula with HAWC-30.

The High-Altitude Water Cherenkov Gamma Ray Observatory (HAWC) is underconstruction 4100 meters above sea level at Sierra Negra, Mexico. We describethe design and cabling of the detector, the characterization of thephotomultipliers, and the timing calibration system. We also outline anext-generation detector based on the water Cherenkov technique.

The High-Altitude Water Cherenkov Gamma Ray Observatory (HAWC) is designed toperform a synoptic survey of the TeV sky. The high energy coverage of theexperiment will enable studies of fundamental physics beyond the StandardModel, and the large field of view of the detector will enable detailed studiesof cosmologically significant backgrounds and magnetic fields. We describe thesensitivity of the full HAWC array to these phenomena in five contributionsshown at the 33rd International Cosmic Ray Conference in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil(July 2013).

We analyze the North American budget for carbon monoxide using data for CO and formaldehyde concentrations from tall towers and aircraft in a model-data assimilation framework. The Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model for CO (STILT-CO) determines local to regional-scale CO contributions associated with production from fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning, and oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) using an ensemble of Lagrangian particles driven by high resolution assimilated meteorology. In many cases, the model demonstrates high fidelity simulations of hourly surface data from tall towers and point measurements from aircraft, with somewhat less satisfactory performance in coastal regions and when CO from large biomass fires in Alaska and the Yukon Territory influence the continental US. Inversions of STILT-CO simulations for CO and formaldehyde show that current inventories of CO emissions from fossil fuel combustion are significantly too high, by almost a factor of three in summer and a factor two in early spring, consistent with recent analyses of data from the INTEX-A aircraft program. Formaldehyde data help to show that sources of CO from oxidation of CH4 and other VOCs represent the dominant sources of CO over North America in summer. © Author(s) 2008.

Abstract. We analyze the North American budget for carbon monoxide using data for CO and formaldehyde concentrations from tall towers and aircraft in a model-data assimilation framework. The Stochastic Time-Inverted, Lagrangian Transport model for CO (STILT-CO) determines local to regional-scale CO contributions associated with production from fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning, and oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) using an ensemble of Lagrangian particles driven by high resolution assimilated meteorology. In most cases, the model demonstrates high fidelity simulations of hourly surface data from tall towers and point measurements from aircraft, with somewhat less satisfactory performance in coastal regions and when CO from large biomass fires in Alaska and the Yukon Territory influence the continental US. Inversions of STILT-CO simulations for CO and formaldehyde show that current inventories of CO emissions from fossil fuel combustion are significantly too high, by almost a factor of three in summer and a factor two in early spring, consistent with recent analyses of data from the INTEX-A aircraft program. Formaldehyde data help to show that sources of CO from oxidation of CH4 and other VOCs represent the dominant sources of CO over North America in summer.

Abstract. We analyze the North American budget for carbon monoxide using data for CO and formaldehyde concentrations from tall towers and aircraft in a model-data assimilation framework. The Stochastic Time-Inverted, Lagrangian Transport model for CO (STILT-CO) determines local to regional-scale CO contributions associated with production from fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning, and oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) using an ensemble of Lagrangian particles driven by high resolution assimilated meteorology. In most cases, the model demonstrates high fidelity simulations of hourly surface data from tall towers and point measurements from aircraft, with somewhat less satisfactory performance in coastal regions and when CO from large biomass fires in Alaska and the Yukon Territory influence the continental US. Inversions of STILT-CO simulations for CO and formaldehyde show that current inventories of CO emissions from fossil fuel combustion are significantly too high, by almost a factor of three in summer and a factor two in early spring, consistent with recent analyses of data from the INTEX-A aircraft program. Formaldehyde data help to show that sources of CO from oxidation of CH4 and other VOCs represent the dominant sources of CO over North America in summer.

We analyze the North American budget for carbon monoxide using data for CO and formaldehyde concentrations from tall towers and aircraft in a model-data assimilation framework. The Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model for CO (STILT-CO) determines local to regional-scale CO contributions associated with production from fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning, and oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) using an ensemble of Lagrangian particles driven by high resolution assimilated meteorology. In many cases, the model demonstrates high fidelity simulations of hourly surface data from tall towers and point measurements from aircraft, with somewhat less satisfactory performance in coastal regions and when CO from large biomass fires in Alaska and the Yukon Territory influence the continental US. Inversions of STILT-CO simulations for CO and formaldehyde show that current inventories of CO emissions from fossil fuel combustion are significantly too high, by almost a factor of three in summer and a factor two in early spring, consistent with recent analyses of data from the INTEX-A aircraft program. Formaldehyde data help to show that sources of CO from oxidation of CH4 and other VOCs represent the dominant sources of CO over North America in summer. © Author(s) 2008.

We have investigated mesoscale circulations and atmospheric CO2 variations over a heterogeneous landscape of forests, pastures, and large rivers during the Santarém Mesoscale Campaign (SMC) of August 2001. The atmospheric CO2 concentration variations were simulated using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System with four nested grids that included a 1-km finest grid centered on the Tapajós National Forest. Surface CO2 fluxes were prescribed using idealized diurnal cycles over forest and pasture that derived from flux tower observations; while surface water CO2 efflux was prescribed using a value suggested by situ measurements in the Amazon region. Our simulation ran from 1 August through 15 August 2001, which was concurrent with the SMC. Evaluation against flux tower observations and Belterra meteorological tower measurements shoed that the model captured the observed 2-m temperatures and 10-m winds reasonably well. At 57 m the model reproduced the daytime CO2 concentration better than the nighttime concentration but missed the observed early morning CO2 maxima, in part because of the difficulties of simulating stable nocturnal boundary conditions and subgrid-scale intracanopy processes. The results also suggested that the topography, the differences in roughness length between water and land, the "T" shape juxtaposition of Amazon and Tapajós Rivers, and the resulting horinzontal and vertical wind shears all facilitated the generation of local mesoscale circulations. Possible mechanisms producing a low-level convergence (LLC) line near the east bank of the Tapajós River were explored. Under strong trade wind conditions, mechanical forcing is more important than thermal forcing in LLC formation. Persistent clouds near the east side of the Tapajós River may have a significant impact on observed ecosystem carbon flux and should be taken into account if tower fluxes are to be generalized to a larger region. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

A case study of convective development in the Southwest Amazon region during the Wet Season Atmospheric Mesoscale Campaign (WETAMC) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)/Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA) Experiment in Amazonia is presented. The convective development during 7 February 1999 is shown to occur during a period of very weak large-scale forcing in the presence of topography and deforestation. The available data include dual Doppler radar analysis, radiosonde launches, and surface and boundary layer observations. The observational analysis is complemented with a series of model simulations using the RAMS with 2-km resolution over a 300 km × 300 km area forced by a morning radiosonde profile. A comparison of the observed and simulated thermodynamic transformation of the boundary layer and of the formation of convective lines, and of their kinematic and microphysical properties is presented. It is shown that only a few very deep and intense convective cells are necessary to explain the overall precipitating line formation and that discrete propagation and coupling with upper atmosphere circulations may explain the appearance of several lines. The numerical simulation indicates that topography may be the cause of initial convective development, although later on the convective line is parallel to the midlevel shear. There are indications that small-scale deforestation may have an effect on increasing rainfall in the wet season when the large-scale forcing is very weak. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.

A case study of convective development in the Southwest Amazon region during the Wet Season Atmospheric Mesoscale Campaign (WETAMC) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)/Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA) Experiment in Amazonia is presented. The convective development during 7 February 1999 is shown to occur during a period of very weak large-scale forcing in the presence of topography and deforestation. The available data include dual Doppler radar analysis, radiosonde launches, and surface and boundary layer observations. The observational analysis is complemented with a series of model simulations using the RAMS with 2-km resolution over a 300 km × 300 km area forced by a morning radiosonde profile. A comparison of the observed and simulated thermodynamic transformation of the boundary layer and of the formation of convective lines, and of their kinematic and microphysical properties is presented. It is shown that only a few very deep and intense convective cells are necessary to explain the overall precipitating line formation and that discrete propagation and coupling with upper atmosphere circulations may explain the appearance of several lines. The numerical simulation indicates that topography may be the cause of initial convective development, although later on the convective line is parallel to the midlevel shear. There are indications that small-scale deforestation may have an effect on increasing rainfall in the wet season when the large-scale forcing is very weak. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.