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Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities, remains crucial for reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the deep learning domain, facilitated by the availability of extensive earthquake datasets. Despite significant advancements, the existing literature on earthquake nowcasting lacks comprehensive evaluations of pre-trained foundation models and modern deep learning architectures; each focuses on a different aspect of data, such as spatial relationships, temporal patterns, and multi-scale dependencies. This paper addresses the mentioned gap by analyzing different architectures and introducing two innovative approaches called Multi Foundation Quake and GNNCoder. We formulate earthquake nowcasting as a time series forecasting problem for the next 14 days within 0.1-degree spatial bins in Southern California. Earthquake time series are generated using the logarithm energy released by quakes, spanning 1986 to 2024. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that our introduced models outperform other custom architectures by effectively capturing temporal-spatial relationships inherent in seismic data. The performance of existing foundation models varies significantly based on the pre-training datasets, emphasizing the need for careful dataset selection. However, we introduce a novel method, Multi Foundation Quake, that achieves the best overall performance by combining a bespoke pattern with Foundation model results handled as auxiliary streams.

Adults often learn new semantic information in face-to-face communication with other adults (e.g., teachers, colleagues). More knowledgeable individuals provide an ensemble of multimodal behaviours that can shape the information that their interlocutors learn. Using the naturalistic ECOLANG corpus of dyadic conversations, we ask whether multimodal behaviours (pitch, speaking rate, representational gestures, points, object manipulations, and gaze) support adults' semantic learning of unknown objects above and beyond verbal properties of utterances (number of utterances, lexical diversity, mean length of utterances, concreteness) and learners' individual differences (vocabulary, working memory). We found that individual differences, pointing and object manipulations affected learning, with verbal and multimodal factors also interacting to predict adult semantic learning. Our results highlight the relevance of accounts of multimodal learning in adulthood and the importance of considering naturalistic interaction in its complexity to understand the factors that influence adult learning.

Alongside the linguistic input, young children leverage multimodal cues (e.g., prosody, gestures) to learn novel words in face-to-face interactions. It is unclear whether multimodal cues play a similar role in adults. Here, we used ECOLANG, a corpus of semi-naturalistic dyadic conversations where English-speaking adults incidentally learned about unknown objects and their names by interacting with a partner who knew those objects. We examined whether multimodal cues (prosodic, indexical, and iconic) predicted learners' ability to learn the objects' names, above and beyond individual differences and linguistic predictors. We found that the number of repetitions of the label predicted word learning. Additionally, learners with lower working memory abilities benefited from speakers producing representational gestures while labelling the unknown objects. We discuss implications for theories of word learning and approaches of situated cognition.

Representational gestures are co-speech gestures that carry semantic content related to the content of speech. Previous studies focusing on adult-adult conversation have investigated the temporal alignment of gestures and speech finding that the overwhelming majority of representational gestures are produced right before the lexical content they refer to (their lexical affiliate, LA). However, nothing is yet known about whether caregivers would also time their gestures in the same way in naturalistic interactions. We annotated representational gestures from a large corpus (ECOLANG) of semi-naturalistic conversations between caregivers and their 3-4 year old children (n = 899 gestures from n=36 caregivers). We found that, just as in adult-directed language (ADL), representational gestures in child-directed language (CDL) were more tightly linked to the onset of LAs than the onset of the utterance in which LAs were produced (hence planned when full events are encoded); with the overall majority of the representational gestures starting before their LAs. We further found that age of acquisition (AoA) rating of the LA had a significant effect on the speech-gesture latency. We found that for words acquired earlier, the gesture’s stroke (the meaningful part of a gesture) tended to be produced before the LA’s onset; for the later acquired word, the stroke tended to be produced at the same time or after the onset of the LA in speech. Our findings suggest that: (1) Regardless of their addressee, speakers always time the production of representational gestures to specific conceptual/linguistic units, rather than the full event/utterance. (2) In contrast to ADL, caregivers’ gestures may support addresses’ linguistic processing not only by supporting word prediction (of likely better-known words), but also by supporting the learning of conceptual features (of likely less well-known words).

Studies have shown the importance of caregivers’ multimodal behaviours (e.g., prosody, gestures, gaze) on children’s word learning. However, most studies focus on only one specific behaviour (e.g., only prosody). Here, we investigate which multimodal behaviours used by caregivers best predict children’s word learning and vocabulary growth. Using data from the ECOLANG corpus, we analysed caregiver behaviour in semi-naturalistic interactions with their child (3 to 4 years old) in which they talked about known and unknown toys. We analysed caregivers’ (n=36) use of multimodal cues while labelling the objects, specifically their use of yes/no questions, pitch, representational gestures, pointing, object manipulations and gaze. Caregivers’ pitch, use of yes/no questions and pointing predicted children’s word learning. In particular, higher pitch when labelling unknown toys predicted immediate word learning. The degree to which caregivers used higher pitch when producing the label for known compared to unknown toys predicted both immediate learning and vocabulary growth. Furthermore, the degree to which caregivers used yes/no questions more for unknown toys predicted immediate learning, while the frequency of yes/no questions when naming unknown toys predicted vocabulary growth. Lastly, caregiver pointing also predicted immediate label learning and vocabulary growth, but in the opposite direction from prosody: the more they pointed towards known toys, the better children’s learning of novel toy labels. Other behaviours did not predict word learning. Overall, these results provide evidence for the important role of multimodal caregiver behaviours, particularly prosody, on children’s lexical development.

Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two-parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain-hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude-longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.

Abstract: The earthquake cycle of stress accumulation and release is associated with the elastic rebound hypothesis proposed by H.F. Reid following the M7.9 San Francisco earthquake of 1906. However, observing details of the actual values of time- and space-dependent tectonic stress is not possible at the present time. In two previous papers, we have proposed methods to image the earthquake cycle in California by means of proxy variables. These variables are based on correlations in patterns of small earthquakes that occur nearly continuously in time. The purpose of the present paper is to compare these two methods by evaluating their information content using decision thresholds and Receiver Operating Characteristic methods together with Shannon information entropy. Using seismic data from 1940 to present in California, we find that both methods provide nearly equivalent information on the rise and fall of earthquake correlations associated with major earthquakes in the region. We conclude that the resulting timeseries can be viewed as proxies for the cycle of stress accumulation and release associated with major tectonic activity. Article Highlights: The current state of the earthquake cycle of tectonic stress accumulation and release is unobservableWe review two methods for visualizing the current state of the earthquake cycle from correlation in small earthquake patternsMachine learning techniques indicate that signals in a correlation time series corresponding to future large earthquakes can be detected

GeoGateway (http://geo-gateway.org) is a web-based interface for analysis and modeling of geodetic imaging data and to support response to related disasters. Geodetic imaging data product currently supported by GeoGateway include Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) daily position time series and derived velocities and displacements and airborne Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) from NASA's UAVSAR platform. GeoGateway allows users to layer data products in a web map interface and extract information from various tools. Extracted products can be downloaded for further analysis. GeoGateway includes overlays of California fault traces, seismicity from user selected search parameters, and user supplied map files. GeoGateway also provides earthquake nowcasts and hazard maps as well as products created for related response to natural disasters. A user guide is present in the GeoGateway interface. The GeoGateway development team is also growing the user base through workshops, webinars, and video tutorials. GeoGateway is used in the classroom and for research by experts and non-experts including by students.

Research about explanation processes is gaining relevance because of the increased popularity of artificial systems required to explain their function or outcome. Following an interactive approach, not only explainers but also explainees contribute to successful interactions. However, little is known about how explainees actively guide explanation processes and how their involvement relates to learning. We explored the occurrence and type of explainees’ questions in 20 adult–adult explanation dialogues about unknown present and absent objects. Crucially, we related the question types to the explainees’ subsequent recall of the unknown object labels. We found that explainees asked different types of questions, especially about the object’s label and facts. Questions about the object’s function were asked more when objects were present. In addition, requests for labeling were linked to better recall. The results contribute to designing explainable AI that aim to provide relevant explanations and to further experimental approaches to study explanations.

Theories suggest that representational gestures depicting properties of referents in accompanying speech could facilitate language production and comprehension. In order to shed light on how gesture and speech are coordinated during production, we investigate whether representational gestures are time-locked to the onset of utterances (hence planned when full events are encoded) or Lexical Affiliates (LAs; words most closely aligned with the gesture meaning; hence planned when individual concepts are encoded) in a large corpus of naturalistic conversation (n = 1803 gestures from n = 24 speakers). Our data shows that representational gestures are more tightly tied to LA onsets than utterance onsets, which is consistent with theories of multimodal communication in which gestures aid conceptual packaging or retrieval of individual concepts rather than events. We also demonstrate that in naturalistic speech, representational gestures tend to precede their LAs by around 370ms, which means that they could plausibly allow for an addressee to predict upcoming words (ter Bekke, Drijvers & Holler, 2021; Ferré, 2010; Habets et al., 2011).

A promising tsunami warning system outlined here links Total Electron Content (TEC) disturbances in the ionosphere detected by GNSS satellites to maps of inundated areas along the affected coastlines. This will be accomplished through a pipeline of earthquake, ionosphere, and tsunami simulations. The focus of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of our tsunami simulator for use in this simulation pipeline. The simulator we have developed is called Tsunami Squares, a computationally inexpensive program that employs a unique method of propagating water according to shallow water theory. Unlike other wave simulators, Tsunami Squares can easily propagate waves from sea to land, allowing flooded areas along the coast to be mapped. To validate its accuracy, a comparison is made to the Regional Ocean Modeling System tsunami simulator, which solves the Navier Stokes equations directly using a finite-difference method. The two simulation techniques show good agreement when compared over the 2011 Japan event and the 2010 Chile event. In addition, examples of inundation plots are displayed here to demonstrate its capability for such a warning system.

We propose a new machine learning-based method for nowcasting earthquakes to image the time-dependent earthquake cycle. The result is a timeseries that may correspond to the process of stress accumulation and release. The timeseries are constructed by using principal component analysis of regional seismicity. The patterns are found as eigenvectors of the cross-correlation matrix of a collection of seismicity timeseries in a coarse grained regional spatial grid (pattern recognition via unsupervised machine learning). The eigenvalues of this matrix represent the relative importance of the various eigenpatterns. Using the eigenvectors and eigenvalues, we compute the weighted correlation timeseries of the regional seismicity. This timeseries has the property that the weighted correlation generally decreases prior to major earthquakes in the region, and increases suddenly just after a major earthquake occurs. As in a previous paper (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ea001097), we find that this method produces a nowcasting timeseries that resembles the hypothesized regional stress accumulation and release process characterizing the earthquake cycle. We then address the problem of whether the timeseries contain information regarding future large earthquakes. For this, we compute a receiver operating characteristic and determine the decision thresholds for several future time periods of interest (optimization via supervised machine learning). We find that signals can be detected that can be used to characterize the information content of the timeseries. These signals may be useful in assessing present and near-future seismic hazards.

We present a data-driven approach to clustering or grouping Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations according to observed velocities, displacements or other selected characteristics. Clustering GNSS stations provides useful scientific information, and is a necessary initial step in other analysis, such as detecting aseismic transient signals (Granat et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130039). Desired features of the data can be selected for clustering, including some subset of displacement or velocity components, uncertainty estimates, station location, and other relevant information. Based on those selections, the clustering procedure autonomously groups the GNSS stations according to a selected clustering method. We have implemented this approach as a Python application, allowing us to draw upon the full range of open source clustering methods available in Pythons scikit-learn package (Pedregosa et al., 2011, https://doi.org/10.5555/1953048.2078195). The application returns the stations labeled by group as a table and color coded KML file and is designed to work with the GNSS information available from GeoGateway (Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-020-00561-7; Heflin et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ea000644) but is easily extensible. We demonstrate the methodology on California and western Nevada. The results show partitions that follow faults or geologic boundaries, including for recent large earthquakes and post-seismic motion. The San Andreas fault system is most prominent, reflecting Pacific-North American plate boundary motion. Deformation reflected as class boundaries is distributed north and south of the central California creeping section. For most models a cluster boundary connects the southernmost San Andreas fault with the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ) rather than continuing through the San Gorgonio Pass.

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) interferograms contain valuable information about the fault systems hidden beneath the surface of the Earth. In a new approach, we aim to fit InSAR ground deformation data using a distribution of multiple seismic point sources whose parameters are found by a genetic algorithm. The resulting source distribution could provide another useful tool in solving the difficult problem of accurately mapping earthquake faults. We apply the algorithm to an ALOS-2 InSAR interferogram and perform a multifractal analysis on the resulting distribution, finding that it exhibits multifractal properties. We report first results and discuss advantages and disadvantages of this approach.

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) interferograms contain valuable information about the fault systems hidden beneath the surface of the Earth. In a new approach, we aim to fit InSAR ground deformation data using a distribution of multiple seismic point sources whose parameters are found by a genetic algorithm. The resulting source distribution could provide another useful tool in solving the difficult problem of accurately mapping earthquake faults. We apply the algorithm to an ALOS-2 InSAR interferogram and perform a multifractal analysis on the resulting distribution, finding that it exhibits multifractal properties. We report first results and discuss advantages and disadvantages of this approach.

We use UAVSAR interferograms to characterize fault slip, triggered by the Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake on the 1 San Andreas Fault in the Coachella Valley providing comprehensive maps of short-term geodetic surface deformation that complement in situ measurements. Creepmeters and geological mapping of fault offsets on Durmid Hill recorded 4 and 8 mm of average triggered slip respectively on the fault, in contrast to radar views that reveal significant off-fault dextral deformation averaging 20 mm. Unlike slip in previous triggered slip events on the southernmost San Andreas fault, dextral shear in 2010 is not confined to transpressional hills in the Coachella valley. Edge detection and gradient estimation applied to the 50-m-sampled interferogram data identify the location (to 20 m) and local strike (to

We use UAVSAR interferograms to characterize fault slip, triggered by the Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake on the 1 San Andreas Fault in the Coachella Valley providing comprehensive maps of short-term geodetic surface deformation that complement in situ measurements. Creepmeters and geological mapping of fault offsets on Durmid Hill recorded 4 and 8 mm of average triggered slip respectively on the fault, in contrast to radar views that reveal significant off-fault dextral deformation averaging 20 mm. Unlike slip in previous triggered slip events on the southernmost San Andreas fault, dextral shear in 2010 is not confined to transpressional hills in the Coachella valley. Edge detection and gradient estimation applied to the 50-m-sampled interferogram data identify the location (to 20 m) and local strike (to

Global biodiversity loss is a profound consequence of human activity. Disturbingly, biodiversity loss is greater than realized because of the unknown number of undocumented species. Conservation fundamentally relies on taxonomic recognition of species, but only a fraction of biodiversity is described. Here, we provide a new quantitative approach for prioritizing rigorous taxonomic research for conservation. We implement this approach in a highly diverse vertebrate group-Australian lizards and snakes. Of 870 species assessed, we identified 282 (32.4%) with taxonomic uncertainty, of which 17.6% likely comprise undescribed species of conservation concern. We identify 24 species in need of immediate taxonomic attention to facilitate conservation. Using a broadly applicable return-on-investment framework, we demonstrate the importance of prioritizing the fundamental work of identifying species before they are lost.

We present a global atlas of 4,728 metagenomic samples from mass-transit systems in 60 cities over 3 years, representing the first systematic, worldwide catalog of the urban microbial ecosystem. This atlas provides an annotated, geospatial profile of microbial strains, functional characteristics, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) markers, and genetic elements, including 10,928 viruses, 1,302 bacteria, 2 archaea, and 838,532 CRISPR arrays not found in reference databases. We identified 4,246 known species of urban microorganisms and a consistent set of 31 species found in 97% of samples that were distinct from human commensal organisms. Profiles of AMR genes varied widely in type and density across cities. Cities showed distinct microbial taxonomic signatures that were driven by climate and geographic differences. These results constitute a high-resolution global metagenomic atlas that enables discovery of organisms and genes, highlights potential public health and forensic applications, and provides a culture-independent view of AMR burden in cities.

We present a global atlas of 4,728 metagenomic samples from mass-transit systems in 60 cities over 3 years, representing the first systematic, worldwide catalog of the urban microbial ecosystem. This atlas provides an annotated, geospatial profile of microbial strains, functional characteristics, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) markers, and genetic elements, including 10,928 viruses, 1,302 bacteria, 2 archaea, and 838,532 CRISPR arrays not found in reference databases. We identified 4,246 known species of urban microorganisms and a consistent set of 31 species found in 97% of samples that were distinct from human commensal organisms. Profiles of AMR genes varied widely in type and density across cities. Cities showed distinct microbial taxonomic signatures that were driven by climate and geographic differences. These results constitute a high-resolution global metagenomic atlas that enables discovery of organisms and genes, highlights potential public health and forensic applications, and provides a culture-independent view of AMR burden in cities.

In virtually all areas of psychology, the question of whether a particular construct has a prospective effect on another is of fundamental importance. For decades, the cross-lagged panel model (CLPM) has been the model of choice for addressing this question. However, CLPMs have recently been critiqued, and numerous alternative models have been proposed. Using the association between low self-esteem and depression as a case study, we examined the behavior of seven competing longitudinal models in 10 samples, each with at least four waves of data and sample sizes ranging from 326 to 8,259. The models were compared in terms of convergence, fit statistics, and consistency of parameter estimates. The traditional CLPM and the random intercepts cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM) converged in every sample, whereas the other models frequently failed to converge or did not converge properly. The RI-CLPM exhibited better model fit than the CLPM, whereas the CLPM produced more consistent cross-lagged effects (both across and within samples) than the RI-CLPM. We discuss the models from a conceptual perspective, emphasizing that the models test conceptually distinct psychological and developmental processes, and we address the implications of the empirical findings with regard to model selection. Moreover, we provide practical recommendations for researchers interested in testing prospective associations between constructs and suggest using the CLPM when focused on between-person effects and the RI-CLPM when focused on within-person effects. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Personality is not the most popular subfield of psychology. But, in one way or another, personality psychologists have played an outsized role in the ongoing credibility revolution in psychology. Not only have individual personality psychologists taken on visible roles in the movement, but our fields practices and norms have now become models for other fields to emulate (or, for those who share Baumeisters (2016, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2016.02.003) skeptical view of the consequences of increasing rigor, a model for what to avoid). In this article we discuss some unique features of our field that may have placed us in an ideal position to be leaders in this movement. We do so from a subjective perspective, describing our impressions and opinions about possible explanations for personality psychologys disproportionate role in the credibility revolution. We also discuss some ways in which personality psychology remains less-than-optimal, and how we can address these flaws.

Global biodiversity loss is a profound consequence of human activity. Disturbingly, biodiversity loss is greater than realized because of the unknown number of undocumented species. Conservation fundamentally relies on taxonomic recognition of species, but only a fraction of biodiversity is described. Here, we provide a new quantitative approach for prioritizing rigorous taxonomic research for conservation. We implement this approach in a highly diverse vertebrate group-Australian lizards and snakes. Of 870 species assessed, we identified 282 (32.4%) with taxonomic uncertainty, of which 17.6% likely comprise undescribed species of conservation concern. We identify 24 species in need of immediate taxonomic attention to facilitate conservation. Using a broadly applicable return-on-investment framework, we demonstrate the importance of prioritizing the fundamental work of identifying species before they are lost.

The Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence occurred on 4 and 5 July 2019 within the eastern California shear zone of southern California. Both events produced extensive surface faulting and ground deformation within Indian Wells Valley and Searles Valley. In the weeks following the earthquakes, more than six dozen scientists from government, academia, and the private sector carefully documented the surface faulting and ground-deformation features. As of December 2019, we have compiled a total of more than 6000 ground observations; approximately 1500 of these simply note the presence or absence of fault rupture or ground failure, but the remainder include detailed descriptions and other documentation, including tens of thousands of photographs. More than 1100 of these observations also include quantitative field measurements of displacement sense and magnitude. These field observations were supplemented bymapping of fault rupture and ground-deformation features directly in the field as well as by interpreting the location and extent of surface faulting and ground deformation from optical imagery and geodetic image products. We identified greater than 68 km of fault rupture produced by both earthquakes aswell as numerous sites of ground deformation resulting from liquefaction or slope failure. These observations comprise a dataset that is fundamental to understanding the processes that controlled this earthquake sequence and for improving earthquake hazard estimates in the region. This article documents the types of data collected during postearthquake field investigations, the compilation effort, and the digital data products resulting from these efforts.

To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer five original research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from 2 separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete 1 version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: Materials from different teams rendered statistically significant effects in opposite directions for 4 of 5 hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = -0.37 to + 0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for 2 hypotheses and a lack of support for 3 hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, whereas considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Effective land management and biodiversity conservation policy relies on good records of native species occurrence and habitat association, but for many animal groups these data are inadequate. In the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), the most environmentally and economically important catchment in Australia, knowledge gaps exist on the occurrence and habitat associations of insectivorous bat species. We relied on the interest and effort of citizen scientists to assist with the most intensive insectivorous bat survey ever undertaken in the MDB region of South Australia. We used an existing network of Natural Resource Management groups to connect interested citizens and build on historical observations of bat species using a fleet of 30 Anabat Swift bat detectors. The survey effort more than doubled the number of bat occurrence records for the area in two years (3000 records; cf. 2693 records between 1890 and 2018; freely available through the Atlas of Living Australia). We used multinomial logistic regression to look at the relationship between three types of environmental covariates: flight space, nearest open water source and vegetation type. There were no differences in species richness among the environmental covariates. The records have been, and will continue to be, used to inform government land management policy, more accurately predict the impact of development proposals on bat populations, and update conservation assessments for microbat species. A social survey tool also showed that participation in the project led to positive behaviours, and planned positive behaviours, for improving bat habitat on private land.

Sexual debut, or first intercourse, predicts problem behaviors such as substance use. This association could reflect a direct effect of debut itself, general developmental trends, or the fact that some youth are more predisposed to a wide array of problem behaviors (e.g., risky sex, substance use). Understanding the association between sexual debut and substance use thus requires methods that can distinguish between these various accounts. In this study the association between sexual debut and substance use was investigated in a longitudinal sample of Mexican-origin youth (N = 674) assessed annually from 5th (Mage = 10.86 years, SD = 0.51) through 12th grade (Mage = 17.69 years, SD = 0.48). The longitudinal aspect of the data allowed the direct effect of sexual debut on substance use to be tested while accounting for long-term trends in substance use, and stable individual differences in those trends based on early risk and debut timing. Substance use increased over time, and early risk and debut were consistently associated with more substance use. Sexual debut also modestly predicted an increase in substance use after accounting for these effects, however. Taken together, results provide some evidence consistent with each of the potential explanations for the association between sexual debut and substance use across adolescence.

Sexual debut, or first intercourse, predicts problem behaviors such as substance use. This association could reflect a direct effect of debut itself, general developmental trends, or the fact that some youth are more predisposed to a wide array of problem behaviors (e.g., risky sex, substance use). Understanding the association between sexual debut and substance use thus requires methods that can distinguish between these various accounts. In this study the association between sexual debut and substance use was investigated in a longitudinal sample of Mexican-origin youth (N = 674) assessed annually from 5th (Mage = 10.86 years, SD = 0.51) through 12th grade (Mage = 17.69 years, SD = 0.48). The longitudinal aspect of the data allowed the direct effect of sexual debut on substance use to be tested while accounting for long-term trends in substance use, and stable individual differences in those trends based on early risk and debut timing. Substance use increased over time, and early risk and debut were consistently associated with more substance use. Sexual debut also modestly predicted an increase in substance use after accounting for these effects, however. Taken together, results provide some evidence consistent with each of the potential explanations for the association between sexual debut and substance use across adolescence.

Some of the most widely studied variants in psychiatric genetics include variable number tandem repeat variants (VNTRs) in SLC6A3, DRD4, SLC6A4, and MAOA. While initial findings suggested large effects, their importance with respect to psychiatric phenotypes is the subject of much debate with broadly conflicting results. Despite broad interest, these loci remain absent from the largest available samples, such as the UK Biobank, limiting researchers' ability to test these contentious hypotheses rigorously in large samples. Here, using two independent reference datasets, we report out-of-sample imputation accuracy estimates of >0.96 for all four VNTR variants and one modifying SNP, depending on the reference and target dataset. We describe the imputation procedures of these candidate variants in 486,551 UK Biobank individuals, and have made the imputed variant data available to UK Biobank researchers. This resource, provided to the scientific community, will allow the most rigorous tests to-date of the roles of these variants in behavioral and psychiatric phenotypes.

Seismic nowcasting uses counts of small earthquakes as proxy data to estimate the current dynamical state of an earthquake fault system. The result is an earthquake potential score that characterizes the current state of progress of a defined geographic region through its nominal earthquake "cycle." The count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake is the natural time that has elapsed since the last large earthquake (Varotsos et al., 2006, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.74.021123). In addition to natural time, earthquake sequences can also be analyzed using Shannon information entropy ("information"), an idea that was pioneered by Shannon (1948, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x). As a first step to add seismic information entropy into the nowcasting method, we incorporate magnitude information into the natural time counts by using event self-information. We find in this first application of seismic information entropy that the earthquake potential score values are similar to the values using only natural time. However, other characteristics of earthquake sequences, including the interevent time intervals, or the departure of higher magnitude events from the magnitude-frequency scaling line, may contain additional information.

Seismic nowcasting uses counts of small earthquakes as proxy data to estimate the current dynamical state of an earthquake fault system. The result is an earthquake potential score that characterizes the current state of progress of a defined geographic region through its nominal earthquake "cycle." The count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake is the natural time that has elapsed since the last large earthquake (Varotsos et al., 2006, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.74.021123). In addition to natural time, earthquake sequences can also be analyzed using Shannon information entropy ("information"), an idea that was pioneered by Shannon (1948, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x). As a first step to add seismic information entropy into the nowcasting method, we incorporate magnitude information into the natural time counts by using event self-information. We find in this first application of seismic information entropy that the earthquake potential score values are similar to the values using only natural time. However, other characteristics of earthquake sequences, including the interevent time intervals, or the departure of higher magnitude events from the magnitude-frequency scaling line, may contain additional information.

Individuals who believe that intelligence can be improved with effort (an incremental theory of intelligence) and who approach challenges with the goal of improving their understanding (a learning goal) tend to have higher academic achievement. Furthermore, parent praise is associated with children's incremental theories and learning goals. However, the influences of parental criticism, as well as different forms of praise and criticism (e.g., process vs. person), have received less attention. We examine these associations by analyzing two existing datasets (Study 1: N = 317 first to eighth graders; Study 2: N = 282 fifth and eighth graders). In both studies, older children held more incremental theories of intelligence, but lower learning goals, than younger children. Unexpectedly, the relation between theories of intelligence and learning goals was nonsignificant and did not vary with children's grade level. In both studies, overall perceived parent praise positively related to children's learning goals, whereas perceived parent criticism negatively related to incremental theories of intelligence. In Study 2, perceived parent process praise was the only significant (positive) predictor of children's learning goals, whereas perceived parent person criticism was the only significant (negative) predictor of incremental theories of intelligence. Finally, Study 2 provided some support for our hypothesis that age-related differences in perceived parent praise and criticism can explain age-related differences in children's learning goals. Results suggest that incremental theories of intelligence and learning goals might not be strongly related during childhood and that perceived parent praise and criticism have important, but distinct, relations with each motivational construct.

Parent-child interactions are likely influenced by the personality characteristics of both the parent and the child. However, questions remain concerning the bidirectional nature of these effects (e.g., does a child's personality evoke changes in his or her parent's behavior?). Furthermore, the existing literature is based primarily on European American children and generally relies on questionnaire measures of parent-child interactions rather than assessing behavior during observed interactions. To address these gaps in the literature, the authors evaluated reciprocal associations between personality traits and observed interactions between Mexican origin adolescents (N = 674) and their parents in 5th- and 7th-grade using the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model (Kenny, Kashy, & Cook, 2006). Adolescent effortful control and aggressiveness were associated with adolescent warmth and hostility (i.e., actor effects) and parent warmth and hostility (i.e., partner effects). Thus, adolescents with poor self-control seem to evoke more negative behaviors from their parents than adolescents with better self-control. Parental extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism predicted parent warmth (actor effects), but there was little evidence that parent personality was associated with specific adolescent behaviors (partner effects). These results help to clarify how personality attributes are associated with adolescent relationships. (PsycINFO Database Record

ObjectivesPast research has established that the Multigroup Ethnic Identity Measure (MEIM) exhibits measurement invariance across diverse ethnic groups. However, relatively little research has evaluated whether this measure is invariant across generational status. Thus, the present study evaluates the invariance of the MEIM across foreign-born, second-generation, and later-generation respondents.MethodA large, ethnically diverse sample of college students completed the MEIM as part of an online survey (N = 9,107; 72.8% women; mean age = 20.31 years; SD = 3.38).ResultsThere is evidence of configural and metric invariance, but there is little evidence of scalar invariance across generational status groups.ConclusionsThis study suggests that the MEIM has an equivalent factor structure across generation groups, indicating it is appropriate to compare the magnitude of associations between the MEIM and other variables across foreign-born, second-generation, and later-generation individuals. However, the lack of scalar invariance suggests that mean-level differences across generational status should be interpreted with caution. (PsycINFO Database Record

Tectonic motion across the Los Angeles region is distributed across an intricate network of strike-slip and thrust faults that will be released in destructive earthquakes similar to or larger than the 1933 M6.4 Long Beach and 1994 M6.7 Northridge events. Here we show that Los Angeles regional thrust, strike-slip, and oblique faults are connected and move concurrently with measurable surface deformation, even in moderate magnitude earthquakes, as part of a fault system that accommodates north-south shortening and westerly tectonic escape of northern Los Angeles. The 28 March 2014 M5.1 La Habra earthquake occurred on a northeast striking, northwest dipping left-lateral oblique thrust fault northeast of Los Angeles. We present crustal deformation observation spanning the earthquake showing that concurrent deformation occurred on several structures in the shallow crust. The seismic moment of the earthquake is 82% of the total geodetic moment released. Slip within the unconsolidated upper sedimentary layer may reflect shallow release of accumulated strain on still-locked deeper structures. A future M6.1-6.3 earthquake would account for the accumulated strain. Such an event could occur on any one or several of these faults, which may not have been identified by geologic surface mapping.

Tectonic motion across the Los Angeles region is distributed across an intricate network of strike-slip and thrust faults that will be released in destructive earthquakes similar to or larger than the 1933 M6.4 Long Beach and 1994 M6.7 Northridge events. Here we show that Los Angeles regional thrust, strike-slip, and oblique faults are connected and move concurrently with measurable surface deformation, even in moderate magnitude earthquakes, as part of a fault system that accommodates north-south shortening and westerly tectonic escape of northern Los Angeles. The 28 March 2014 M5.1 La Habra earthquake occurred on a northeast striking, northwest dipping left-lateral oblique thrust fault northeast of Los Angeles. We present crustal deformation observation spanning the earthquake showing that concurrent deformation occurred on several structures in the shallow crust. The seismic moment of the earthquake is 82% of the total geodetic moment released. Slip within the unconsolidated upper sedimentary layer may reflect shallow release of accumulated strain on still-locked deeper structures. A future M6.1-6.3 earthquake would account for the accumulated strain. Such an event could occur on any one or several of these faults, which may not have been identified by geologic surface mapping.

Previous studies suggest that temperamental dispositions are associated with substance use. However, most research supporting this association has relied on European American samples (Stautz & Cooper, 2013). We addressed this gap by evaluating the prospective relations between 5th grade temperament and 9th grade substance use in a longitudinal sample of Mexican-origin youth (N = 674). Effortful control and trait aggressiveness predicted 9th grade substance use, intentions, and expectations, even after controlling for 5th grade substance use. Additionally, we found an interaction between temperament and parental monitoring such that monitoring is a protective factor for early substance use primarily for youth with temperamental tendencies associated with risk for substance use (e.g., low effortful control and aggression). Results add to the growing literature demonstrating that early manifestations of self-control are related to consequential life outcomes.

Genetic differences between populations are potentially an important contributor to health disparities around the globe. As differences in gene frequencies influence study design, it is important to have a thorough understanding of the natural variation of the genetic variant(s) of interest. Along these lines, we characterized the variation of the 5HTTLPR and rs25531 polymorphisms in six samples from North America, Southeast Asia, and Africa (Cameroon) that differ in their racial and ethnic composition. Allele and genotype frequencies were determined for 24,066 participants. Results indicated higher frequencies of the rs25531 G-allele among Black and African populations as compared with White, Hispanic and Asian populations. Further, we observed a greater number of extra-long (XL) 5HTTLPR alleles than have previously been reported. Extra-long alleles occurred almost entirely among Asian, Black and Non-White Hispanic populations as compared with White and Native American populations where they were completely absent. Lastly, when considered jointly, we observed between sample differences in the genotype frequencies within racial and ethnic populations. Taken together, these data underscore the importance of characterizing the L-G allele to avoid misclassification of participants by genotype and for further studies of the impact XL alleles may have on the transcriptional efficiency of SLC6A4.

Body size affects life history, the ecological niche of an organism and its interactions with other organisms. Resultantly, marked differences in body size between related organisms are often an indication of a species boundary. This is particularly evident in the Gehyra variegata species complex of geckos, which displays differential body sizes between genetically divergent species, but high levels of intraspecific morphological conservatism. We report on a Gehyra population that displays extraordinary body size differentiation in comparison with other G. variegata species. We used morphological and environmental data to show this population is phenotypically and ecologically distinct from its parapatric congener Gehyra lazelli and that morphology and ecology are significantly correlated. Contrastingly, mtDNA analysis indicates paraphyly between the two groups, and allele frequencies at six microsatellite loci show no population structure concordant with morpho-/ecotype. These results suggest either ecological speciation or environmentally induced phenotypic polymorphism, in an otherwise morphologically conservative group.

Body size affects life history, the ecological niche of an organism and its interactions with other organisms. Resultantly, marked differences in body size between related organisms are often an indication of a species boundary. This is particularly evident in the Gehyra variegata species complex of geckos, which displays differential body sizes between genetically divergent species, but high levels of intraspecific morphological conservatism. We report on a Gehyra population that displays extraordinary body size differentiation in comparison with other G. variegata species. We used morphological and environmental data to show this population is phenotypically and ecologically distinct from its parapatric congener Gehyra lazelli and that morphology and ecology are significantly correlated. Contrastingly, mtDNA analysis indicates paraphyly between the two groups, and allele frequencies at six microsatellite loci show no population structure concordant with morpho-/ecotype. These results suggest either ecological speciation or environmentally induced phenotypic polymorphism, in an otherwise morphologically conservative group.

In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed “model steering”. Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M > 6.5 and M > 7.0 earthquakes in California.

The National Research Council Earth Science Decadal Survey, Earth Science Applications from Space, recommends that DESDynI (Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice), an integrated L-band InSAR and multibeam Lidar mission, launch in the 2010-2013 timeframe. The mission will measure surface deformation for solid Earth and cryosphere objectives and vegetation structure for understanding the carbon cycle. InSAR has been used to study surface deformation of the solid Earth and cryosphere and more recently vegetation structure for estimates of biomass and ecosystem function. Lidar directly measures topography and vegetation structure and is used to estimate biomass and detect changes in surface elevation. The goal of DESDynI is to take advantage of the spatial continuity of InSAR and precision and directness of Lidar. There are several issues related to the design of the DESDynI mission, including combining the two instruments into a single platform, optimizing the coverage and orbit for the two techniques, and carrying out the science modeling to define and maximize the scientific output of the mission. ©2008 IEEE.

The National Research Council Earth Science Decadal Survey, Earth Science Applications from Space, recommends that DESDynI (Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice), an integrated L-band InSAR and multibeam Lidar mission, launch in the 2010-2013 timeframe. The mission will measure surface deformation for solid Earth and cryosphere objectives and vegetation structure for understanding the carbon cycle. InSAR has been used to study surface deformation of the solid Earth and cryosphere and more recently vegetation structure for estimates of biomass and ecosystem function. Lidar directly measures topography and vegetation structure and is used to estimate biomass and detect changes in surface elevation. The goal of DESDynI is to take advantage of the spatial continuity of InSAR and precision and directness of Lidar. There are several issues related to the design of the DESDynI mission, including combining the two instruments into a single platform, optimizing the coverage and orbit for the two techniques, and carrying out the science modeling to define and maximize the scientific output of the mission. ©2008 IEEE.

The origin of cases is a central issue in cogni-tive models of case-based reasoning. Some recentwork proposes the use of weak methods for gener-ating solutions when a relevant case is not avail-able, and chunking the solutions into cases forpotential reuse. Our theory of case-based spsi-tial planning and navigation suggests a differentapproach in which mental models of the worldprovide a way for solving new problems and ac-quiring cases. These mental models also pro-vide a scheme for organizing the case mmeory,adapting old cases, and verifying new plans. Theuse of multiple methods, such as the case-basedand model-based methods, raises another impor-tant issue in reasoning, namely, how to oppor-tunistically select and dynamically integrate themethods. Our theory sujjgests the use of simplemeta^reasoning to recursively select an appropri-ate method as the problem is decomposed intosubproblems. This leads to the dynamic integra-tion of different methods where one method isused for one subproblem and a different methodfor another subproblem.