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BACKGROUNDLongitudinal investigations of murine acute kidney injury (AKI) suggest that injury and inflammation may persist long after the initial insult. However, the evolution of these processes and their prognostic values are unknown in patients with AKI.METHODSIn a prospective cohort of 656 participants hospitalized with AKI, we measured 7 urine and 2 plasma biomarkers of kidney injury, inflammation, and tubular health at multiple time points from the diagnosis to 12 months after AKI. We used linear mixed-effect models to estimate biomarker changes over time, and we used Cox proportional hazard regressions to determine their associations with a composite outcome of chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence and progression. We compared the gene expression kinetics of biomarkers in murine models of repair and atrophy after ischemic reperfusion injury (IRI).RESULTSAfter 4.3 years, 106 and 52 participants developed incident CKD and CKD progression, respectively. Each SD increase in the change of urine KIM-1, MCP-1, and plasma TNFR1 from baseline to 12 months was associated with 2- to 3-fold increased risk for CKD, while the increase in urine uromodulin was associated with 40% reduced risk for CKD. The trajectories of these biological processes were associated with progression to kidney atrophy in mice after IRI.CONCLUSIONSustained tissue injury and inflammation, and slower restoration of tubular health, are associated with higher risk of kidney disease progression. Further investigation into these ongoing biological processes may help researchers understand and prevent the AKI-to-CKD transition.FUNDINGNIH and NIDDK (grants U01DK082223, U01DK082185, U01DK082192, U01DK082183, R01DK098233, R01DK101507, R01DK114014, K23DK100468, R03DK111881, K01DK120783, and R01DK093771).

ObjectiveHigh levels of psychological distress increase the risk of a wide range of medical diseases. In this study, we investigated the association between posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and kidney disease.MethodsWorld Trade Center (WTC) responders were included if they had two or more measures of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The PTSD Checklist (PCL) was used to define no PTSD (PCL < 40), "mild" PTSD (40 ≤ PCL

BackgroundThere has recently been considerable interest in better understanding how blood pressure should be managed after an episode of hospitalized AKI, but there are scant data regarding the associations between blood pressure measured after AKI and subsequent adverse outcomes. We hypothesized that among AKI survivors, higher blood pressure measured three months after hospital discharge would be associated with worse outcomes. We also hypothesized these associations between blood pressure and outcomes would be similar among those who survived non-AKI hospitalizations.MethodsWe quantified how systolic blood pressure (SBP) observed three months after hospital discharge was associated with risks of subsequent hospitalized AKI, loss of kidney function, mortality, and heart failure events among 769 patients in the prospective ASSESS-AKI cohort study who had hospitalized AKI. We repeated this analysis among the 769 matched non-AKI ASSESS-AKI enrollees. We then formally tested for AKI interaction in the full cohort of 1538 patients to determine if these associations differed among those who did and did not experience AKI during the index hospitalization.ResultsAmong 769 patients with AKI, 42 % had subsequent AKI, 13 % had loss of kidney function, 27 % died, and 18 % had heart failure events. SBP 3 months post-hospitalization did not have a stepwise association with the risk of subsequent AKI, loss of kidney function, mortality, or heart failure events. Among the 769 without AKI, there was also no stepwise association with these risks. In formal interaction testing using the full cohort of 1538 patients, hospitalized AKI did not modify the association between post-discharge SBP and subsequent risks of adverse clinical outcomes.ConclusionsContrary to our first hypothesis, we did not observe that higher stepwise blood pressure measured three months after hospital discharge with AKI was associated with worse outcomes. Our data were consistent with our second hypothesis that the association between blood pressure measured three months after hospital discharge and outcomes among AKI survivors is similar to that observed among those who survived non-AKI hospitalizations.

BackgroundThere has recently been considerable interest in better understanding how blood pressure should be managed after an episode of hospitalized AKI, but there are scant data regarding the associations between blood pressure measured after AKI and subsequent adverse outcomes. We hypothesized that among AKI survivors, higher blood pressure measured three months after hospital discharge would be associated with worse outcomes. We also hypothesized these associations between blood pressure and outcomes would be similar among those who survived non-AKI hospitalizations.MethodsWe quantified how systolic blood pressure (SBP) observed three months after hospital discharge was associated with risks of subsequent hospitalized AKI, loss of kidney function, mortality, and heart failure events among 769 patients in the prospective ASSESS-AKI cohort study who had hospitalized AKI. We repeated this analysis among the 769 matched non-AKI ASSESS-AKI enrollees. We then formally tested for AKI interaction in the full cohort of 1538 patients to determine if these associations differed among those who did and did not experience AKI during the index hospitalization.ResultsAmong 769 patients with AKI, 42 % had subsequent AKI, 13 % had loss of kidney function, 27 % died, and 18 % had heart failure events. SBP 3 months post-hospitalization did not have a stepwise association with the risk of subsequent AKI, loss of kidney function, mortality, or heart failure events. Among the 769 without AKI, there was also no stepwise association with these risks. In formal interaction testing using the full cohort of 1538 patients, hospitalized AKI did not modify the association between post-discharge SBP and subsequent risks of adverse clinical outcomes.ConclusionsContrary to our first hypothesis, we did not observe that higher stepwise blood pressure measured three months after hospital discharge with AKI was associated with worse outcomes. Our data were consistent with our second hypothesis that the association between blood pressure measured three months after hospital discharge and outcomes among AKI survivors is similar to that observed among those who survived non-AKI hospitalizations.

Rationale & objectiveUnderlying kidney disease is an emerging risk factor for more severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) illness. We examined the clinical courses of critically ill COVID-19 patients with and without pre-existing chronic kidney disease (CKD) and investigated the association between the degree of underlying kidney disease and in-hospital outcomes.Study designRetrospective cohort study.Settings & participants4,264 critically ill patients with COVID-19 (143 patients with pre-existing kidney failure receiving maintenance dialysis; 521 patients with pre-existing non-dialysis-dependent CKD; and 3,600 patients without pre-existing CKD) admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) at 68 hospitals across the United States.Predictor(s)Presence (vs absence) of pre-existing kidney disease.Outcome(s)In-hospital mortality (primary); respiratory failure, shock, ventricular arrhythmia/cardiac arrest, thromboembolic events, major bleeds, and acute liver injury (secondary).Analytical approachWe used standardized differences to compare patient characteristics (values>0.10 indicate a meaningful difference between groups) and multivariable-adjusted Fine and Gray survival models to examine outcome associations.ResultsDialysis patients had a shorter time from symptom onset to ICU admission compared to other groups (median of 4 [IQR, 2-9] days for maintenance dialysis patients; 7 [IQR, 3-10] days for non-dialysis-dependent CKD patients; and 7 [IQR, 4-10] days for patients without pre-existing CKD). More dialysis patients (25%) reported altered mental status than those with non-dialysis-dependent CKD (20%; standardized difference=0.12) and those without pre-existing CKD (12%; standardized difference=0.36). Half of dialysis and non-dialysis-dependent CKD patients died within 28 days of ICU admission versus 35% of patients without pre-existing CKD. Compared to patients without pre-existing CKD, dialysis patients had higher risk for 28-day in-hospital death (adjusted HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.09-1.81]), while patients with non-dialysis-dependent CKD had an intermediate risk (adjusted HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.08-1.44]).LimitationsPotential residual confounding.ConclusionsFindings highlight the high mortality of individuals with underlying kidney disease and severe COVID-19, underscoring the importance of identifying safe and effective COVID-19 therapies in this vulnerable population.

INTRODUCTIONAcute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are common in hospitalized patients. To inform clinical decision making, more accurate information regarding risk of long-term progression to kidney failure is required.METHODSWe enrolled 1538 hospitalized patients in a multicenter, prospective cohort study. Monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1/CCL2), uromodulin (UMOD), and YKL-40 (CHI3L1) were measured in urine samples collected during outpatient follow-up at 3 months. We followed patients for a median of 4.3 years and assessed the relationship between biomarker levels and changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time and the development of a composite kidney outcome (CKD incidence, CKD progression, or end-stage renal disease). We paired these clinical studies with investigations in mouse models of renal atrophy and renal repair to further understand the molecular basis of these markers in kidney disease progression.RESULTSHigher MCP-1 and YKL-40 levels were associated with greater eGFR decline and increased incidence of the composite renal outcome, whereas higher UMOD levels were associated with smaller eGFR declines and decreased incidence of the composite kidney outcome. A multimarker score increased prognostic accuracy and reclassification compared with traditional clinical variables alone. The mouse model of renal atrophy showed greater Ccl2 and Chi3l1 mRNA expression in infiltrating macrophages and neutrophils, respectively, and evidence of progressive renal fibrosis compared with the repair model. The repair model showed greater Umod expression in the loop of Henle and correspondingly less fibrosis.CONCLUSIONSBiomarker levels at 3 months after hospitalization identify patients at risk for kidney disease progression.FUNDINGNIH.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) has been reported to be associated with excess risks of death, kidney disease progression and cardiovascular events although previous studies have important limitations. To further examine this, we prospectively studied adults from four clinical centers surviving three months and more after hospitalization with or without AKI who were matched on center, pre-admission CKD status, and an integrated priority score based on age, prior cardiovascular disease or diabetes mellitus, preadmission estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and treatment in the intensive care unit during the index hospitalization between December 2009-February 2015, with follow-up through November 2018. All participants had assessments of kidney function before (eGFR) and at three months and annually (eGFR and proteinuria) after the index hospitalization. Associations of AKI with outcomes were examined after accounting for pre-admission and three-month post-discharge factors. Among 769 AKI (73% Stage 1, 14% Stage 2, 13% Stage 3) and 769 matched non-AKI adults, AKI was associated with higher adjusted rates of incident CKD (adjusted hazard ratio 3.98, 95% confidence interval 2.51-6.31), CKD progression (2.37,1.28-4.39), heart failure events (1.68, 1.22-2.31) and all-cause death (1.78, 1.24-2.56). AKI was not associated with major atherosclerotic cardiovascular events in multivariable analysis (0.95, 0.70-1.28). After accounting for degree of kidney function recovery and proteinuria at three months after discharge, the associations of AKI with heart failure (1.13, 0.80-1.61) and death (1.29, 0.84-1.98) were attenuated and no longer significant. Thus, assessing kidney function recovery and proteinuria status three months after AKI provides important prognostic information for long-term clinical outcomes.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) has been reported to be associated with excess risks of death, kidney disease progression and cardiovascular events although previous studies have important limitations. To further examine this, we prospectively studied adults from four clinical centers surviving three months and more after hospitalization with or without AKI who were matched on center, pre-admission CKD status, and an integrated priority score based on age, prior cardiovascular disease or diabetes mellitus, preadmission estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and treatment in the intensive care unit during the index hospitalization between December 2009-February 2015, with follow-up through November 2018. All participants had assessments of kidney function before (eGFR) and at three months and annually (eGFR and proteinuria) after the index hospitalization. Associations of AKI with outcomes were examined after accounting for pre-admission and three-month post-discharge factors. Among 769 AKI (73% Stage 1, 14% Stage 2, 13% Stage 3) and 769 matched non-AKI adults, AKI was associated with higher adjusted rates of incident CKD (adjusted hazard ratio 3.98, 95% confidence interval 2.51-6.31), CKD progression (2.37,1.28-4.39), heart failure events (1.68, 1.22-2.31) and all-cause death (1.78, 1.24-2.56). AKI was not associated with major atherosclerotic cardiovascular events in multivariable analysis (0.95, 0.70-1.28). After accounting for degree of kidney function recovery and proteinuria at three months after discharge, the associations of AKI with heart failure (1.13, 0.80-1.61) and death (1.29, 0.84-1.98) were attenuated and no longer significant. Thus, assessing kidney function recovery and proteinuria status three months after AKI provides important prognostic information for long-term clinical outcomes.

Rationale & objectiveThe process of angiogenesis after kidney injury may determine recovery and long-term outcomes. We evaluated the association of angiogenesis markers with acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality after cardiac surgery.Study designProspective cohort.Setting & participants1,444 adults undergoing cardiac surgery in the TRIBE-AKI (Translational Research Investigating Biomarker Endpoints for Acute Kidney Injury) cohort.ExposuresPlasma concentrations of 2 proangiogenic markers (vascular endothelial growth factor A [VEGF] and placental growth factor [PGF]) and 1 antiangiogenic marker (soluble VEGF receptor 1 [VEGFR1]), measured pre- and postoperatively within 6 hours after surgery.OutcomesAKI, long AKI duration (≥7 days), and 1-year all-cause mortality.Analytical approachMultivariable logistic regression.ResultsFollowing cardiac surgery, plasma VEGF concentrations decreased 2-fold, and PGF and VEGFR1 concentrations increased 1.5- and 8-fold, respectively. There were no meaningful associations of preoperative concentrations of angiogenic markers with outcomes of AKI and mortality. Higher postoperative VEGF and PGF concentrations were independently associated with lower odds of AKI (adjusted ORs of 0.89 [95% CI, 0.82-0.98] and 0.69 [95% CI, 0.55-0.87], respectively), long AKI duration (0.65 [95% CI, 0.49-0.87] and 0.48 [95% CI, 0.28-0.82], respectively), and mortality (0.74 [95% CI, 0.62-0.89] and 0.46 [95% CI, 0.31-0.68], respectively). In contrast, higher postoperative VEGFR1 concentrations were independently associated with higher odds of AKI (1.56; 95% CI, 1.31-1.87), long AKI duration (1.75; 95% CI, 1.09-2.82), and mortality (2.28; 95% CI, 1.61-3.22).LimitationsAngiogenesis markers were not measured after hospital discharge, so we were unable to determine long-term trajectories of angiogenesis marker levels during recovery and follow-up.ConclusionsHigher levels of postoperative proangiogenic markers, VEGF and PGF, were associated with lower AKI and mortality risk, whereas higher postoperative antiangiogenic VEGFR1 levels were associated with higher risk for AKI and mortality.

Rationale & objectiveRandom assignment to intensive blood pressure (BP) lowering (systolic BP

BackgroundPre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and emtricitabine (FTC) is becoming increasingly adopted for HIV prevention. Tenofovir can cause proximal tubular damage and chronic kidney disease in HIV-infected persons, but little is known regarding its nephrotoxic potential among HIV-uninfected persons. In this study, we evaluated the effects of PrEP on urine levels of the following: α1-microglobulin (α1m), a marker of impaired tubular reabsorption; albuminuria, a measure of glomerular injury; and total proteinuria.SettingThe Iniciativa Profilaxis Pre-Exposicion (iPrEx) study randomized HIV-seronegative men and transgender women who have sex with men to oral TDF/FTC or placebo. The iPrEx open-label extension (iPrEx-OLE) study enrolled former PrEP trial participants to receive open-label TDF/FTC.MethodsA cross-sectional analysis compared urine biomarker levels by study arm in iPrEx (N = 100 treatment arm, N = 100 placebo arm). Then, urine biomarker levels were compared before and after PrEP initiation in 109 participants of iPrEx-OLE.ResultsIn iPrEx, there were no significant differences in urine α1m, albuminuria, or proteinuria by treatment arm. In iPrEx-OLE, after 24 weeks on PrEP, urine α1m and proteinuria increased by 21% [95% confidence interval (CI): 10 to 33] and 18% (95% CI: 8 to 28), respectively. The prevalence of detectable α1m increased from 44% to 65% (P < 0.001) and estimated glomerular filtration rate declined by 4 mL/min/1.73 m (P < 0.001). There was no significant change in albuminuria (6%; 95% CI: -7% to 20%).ConclusionPrEP with TDF/FTC was associated with a statistically significant rise in urine α1m and proteinuria after 6 months, suggesting that PrEP may result in subclinical tubule dysfunction.

AIM:To investigate early postoperative biomarkers for risk discrimination of advanced acute kidney injury (AKI). MATERIALS & METHODS:Postoperative plasma biomarkers including NGAL, h-FABP, CK-MB, hsTNT, NT-proBNP, IL-6, IL-10 and VEGF were analyzed using group-based method among 426 patients with AKI after cardiac surgery. RESULTS:Six patient groups with distinct biomarker patterns were identified. Individual biomarker displayed significant difference across the groups. The groups showed better discrimination for advanced AKI than any single biomarker either with or without adjusting for clinical variables. Average concentration of a single biomarker within each group, mortality and risk of a secondary outcome all demonstrated an approximately U-shaped relationship with proportion of advanced AKI within each group. CONCLUSION:The group-based analysis revealed that the order of the patient groups with an increasing likelihood of advanced AKI had a nonlinear relationship with average concentration of an individual biomarker, mortality and risk of other outcomes.

BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cause for hospitalization, but there are limited data regarding acute kidney injury requiring dialysis (AKI-D) in AF hospitalizations. We aimed to assess temporal trends and outcomes in AF hospitalizations complicated by AKI-D utilizing a nationally representative database.Methods and resultsUtilizing the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, AF hospitalizations and AKI-D were identified using diagnostic and procedure codes. Trends were analyzed overall and within subgroups and utilized multivariable logistic regression to generate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for predictors and outcomes including mortality and adverse discharge. Between 2003 and 2012, 3751 (0.11%) of 3 497 677 AF hospitalizations were complicated by AKI-D. The trend increased from 0.3/1000 hospitalizations in 2003 to 1.5/1000 hospitalizations in 2012, with higher increases in males and black patients. Temporal changes in demographics and comorbidities explained a substantial proportion but not the entire trend. Significant comorbidities associated with AKI-D included mechanical ventilation (aOR 13.12; 95% CI 9.88-17.43); sepsis (aOR 8.20; 95% CI 6.00-11.20); and liver failure (aOR 3.72; 95% CI 2.92-4.75). AKI-D was associated with higher risk of in-hospital mortality (aOR 3.54; 95% CI 2.81-4.47) and adverse discharge (aOR 4.01; 95% CI 3.12-5.17). Although percentage mortality within AKI-D decreased over the decade, attributable risk percentage mortality remained stable.ConclusionsAF hospitalizations complicated by AKI-D have quintupled over the last decade with differential increase by demographic groups. AKI-D is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Without effective AKI-D therapies, focus should be on early risk stratification and prevention to avoid this devastating complication.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cause for hospitalization, but there are limited data regarding acute kidney injury requiring dialysis (AKI-D) in AF hospitalizations. We aimed to assess temporal trends and outcomes in AF hospitalizations complicated by AKI-D utilizing a nationally representative database. Utilizing the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, AF hospitalizations and AKI-D were identified using diagnostic and procedure codes. Trends were analyzed overall and within subgroups and utilized multivariable logistic regression to generate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for predictors and outcomes including mortality and adverse discharge. Between 2003 and 2012, 3751 (0.11%) of 3 497 677 AF hospitalizations were complicated by AKI-D. The trend increased from 0.3/1000 hospitalizations in 2003 to 1.5/1000 hospitalizations in 2012, with higher increases in males and black patients. Temporal changes in demographics and comorbidities explained a substantial proportion but not the entire trend. Significant comorbidities associated with AKI-D included mechanical ventilation (aOR 13.12; 95% CI 9.88-17.43); sepsis (aOR 8.20; 95% CI 6.00-11.20); and liver failure (aOR 3.72; 95% CI 2.92-4.75). AKI-D was associated with higher risk of in-hospital mortality (aOR 3.54; 95% CI 2.81-4.47) and adverse discharge (aOR 4.01; 95% CI 3.12-5.17). Although percentage mortality within AKI-D decreased over the decade, attributable risk percentage mortality remained stable. AF hospitalizations complicated by AKI-D have quintupled over the last decade with differential increase by demographic groups. AKI-D is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Without effective AKI-D therapies, focus should be on early risk stratification and prevention to avoid this devastating complication.

BackgroundAcute kidney injury is a risk factor for death in cardiac surgical patients. Plasma cystatin C and creatinine have different temporal profiles in the postoperative setting, but the associations of simultaneous changes in both filtration markers compared with change in only one marker with prognosis after hospital discharge are not well described.MethodsThis is a longitudinal study of 1,199 high-risk adult cardiac surgical patients in the TRIBE-AKI (Translational Research Investigating Biomarker Endpoints for Acute Kidney Injury) Consortium who survived hospitalization. We examined in-hospital peak changes of cystatin C and creatinine in the 3 days after cardiac operations. We evaluated associations of these filtration markers with death, adjusting for demographics, operative characteristics, medical comorbidities, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, preoperative urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and site.ResultsDuring the first 3 days of hospitalization, nearly twice as many patients had a 25% or higher rise in creatinine (30%) compared with a 25% or higher peak rise in cystatin C (15%). The risk of death was higher in those with elevations in cystatin C (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4 to 2.37) or creatinine (adjusted HR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.32 to 2.72) compared with patients who experienced a postoperative decrease in either filtration marker. Patients who had simultaneous elevations of 25% or higher in cystatin C and creatinine were at similar adjusted risk for 3-year mortality (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.03 to 3.1) as those with a 25% or higher increase in cystatin C alone (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.09 to 4.47).ConclusionsElevations in creatinine postoperatively are more common than elevations in cystatin C. However, elevations in cystatin C appeared to be associated with a higher risk of death after hospital discharge.

BackgroundThe interaction between baseline kidney function and the performance of biomarkers of acute kidney injury (AKI) on the development of AKI is unclear.Study designPost hoc analysis of prospective cohort study.Setting & participantsThe 1,219 TRIBE-AKI Consortium adult cardiac surgery cohort participants.PredictorUnadjusted postoperative urinary biomarkers of AKI measured within 6 hours of surgery.OutcomeAKI was defined as AKI Network stage 1 (any AKI) or higher, as well as a doubling of serum creatinine level from the preoperative value or the need for post-operative dialysis (severe AKI).MeasurementsStratified analyses by preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≤ 60 versus > 60mL/min/1.73m(2).Results180 (42%) patients with preoperative eGFRs≤60mL/min/1.73m(2) developed clinical AKI compared with 246 (31%) of those with eGFRs>60mL/min/1.73m(2) (P

BackgroundAcute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious complication of cardiac operations for which there remains no specific therapy. Animal data and several observational studies suggest that statins prevent AKI, but the results are not conclusive, and many studies are retrospective in nature.MethodsWe conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study of 625 adult patients undergoing elective cardiac operations. All patients were taking statins and were grouped according to whether statins were continued or held in the 24 hours before operation. The primary outcome was AKI as defined by a doubling of serum creatinine or dialysis. The secondary outcome was the peak level of several kidney injury biomarkers. The results were adjusted for demographic and clinical factors.ResultsContinuing (vs holding) a statin before operation was not associated with a lower risk of AKI, as defined by a doubling of serum creatinine or dialysis (adjusted relative risk [RR] 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.44, 2.70). However, continuing a statin was associated with a lower risk of elevation of the following AKI biomarkers: urine interleukin-18, urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, urine kidney injury molecule-1, and plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (adjusted RR 0.34; 95% CI 0.18, 0.62), (adjusted RR 0.41; 95% CI 0.22, 0.76), (adjusted RR 0.37; 95% CI 0.20, 0.76), (adjusted RR 0.62; 95% CI 0.39, 0.98), respectively.ConclusionsStatins may prevent kidney injury after cardiac operations, as evidenced by lower levels of kidney injury biomarkers.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) has been implicated as an independent risk factor for the development of CKD in recent observational studies. The presumption in the nephrology community is that this association represents a causal relationship. However, because of potential problems related to residual confounding (shared risk factors), ascertainment bias (sicker patients have more follow-up assessments), misclassification of exposure (problems with defining baseline kidney function and AKI representing a discrete event versus progression of renal disease), and misclassification of outcome (de novo CKD versus CKD progression), it is difficult to conclude with certainty that AKI is truly causal for CKD. In this review we highlight several of the Hill causality criteria to examine the existing evidence and point out the missing elements that preclude defining AKI as a cause of CKD in the general population. Only well-designed studies with rigorous assessment of kidney function in all participants (AKI and non-AKI) before and after the episode or hospitalization or randomized, controlled trials demonstrating that prevention or treatment of AKI reduces the incidence of subsequent CKD can clarify the causal nature of the AKI-CKD relationship.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) has been implicated as an independent risk factor for the development of CKD in recent observational studies. The presumption in the nephrology community is that this association represents a causal relationship. However, because of potential problems related to residual confounding (shared risk factors), ascertainment bias (sicker patients have more follow-up assessments), misclassification of exposure (problems with defining baseline kidney function and AKI representing a discrete event versus progression of renal disease), and misclassification of outcome (de novo CKD versus CKD progression), it is difficult to conclude with certainty that AKI is truly causal for CKD. In this review we highlight several of the Hill causality criteria to examine the existing evidence and point out the missing elements that preclude defining AKI as a cause of CKD in the general population. Only well-designed studies with rigorous assessment of kidney function in all participants (AKI and non-AKI) before and after the episode or hospitalization or randomized, controlled trials demonstrating that prevention or treatment of AKI reduces the incidence of subsequent CKD can clarify the causal nature of the AKI-CKD relationship.

There have been considerable advances in the past few years in our understanding of how chronic kidney disease (CKD) predisposes to acute kidney injury (AKI) and vice versa. This review shows, however, that few studies have focused on the elderly or conducted stratified analysis by age. It does appear that elderly patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 45-59 ml/min/1.73 m(2) are at higher risk for AKI compared with their counterparts with eGFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m(2). This is a similar relationship to that seen in younger patients, although effect size appears smaller. As the incidence of AKI has been increasing over the past several years, the proportion of elderly patients surviving after AKI has also been increasing. Since AKI heightens the risk for the development and acceleration of CKD, this implies significant public health concerns with regard to the absolute number of elderly persons developing incident CKD.

There have been considerable advances in the past few years in our understanding of how chronic kidney disease (CKD) predisposes to acute kidney injury (AKI) and vice versa. This review shows, however, that few studies have focused on the elderly or conducted stratified analysis by age. It does appear that elderly patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 45-59 ml/min/1.73 m(2) are at higher risk for AKI compared with their counterparts with eGFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m(2). This is a similar relationship to that seen in younger patients, although effect size appears smaller. As the incidence of AKI has been increasing over the past several years, the proportion of elderly patients surviving after AKI has also been increasing. Since AKI heightens the risk for the development and acceleration of CKD, this implies significant public health concerns with regard to the absolute number of elderly persons developing incident CKD.