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This Open Access Brief presents the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM). KGEMM is a policy analysis tool for examining the impacts of domestic policy measures and global economic and energy shocks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The model has eight blocks (real sector, fiscal, monetary, external sector, price, labor and wages, energy, population, and age cohorts) that interact with each other to represent the Kingdom's macroeconomy and energy linkages. It captures New Keynesian demand-side features anchored to medium-run equilibrium and long-run aggregate supply. It applies a cointegration and equilibrium correction modeling (ECM) methodology to time series data to estimate the model's behavioral equations in the framework of Autometrics, a general-to-specific econometric modeling strategy. Hence, the model combines ‘theory-driven'approach with ‘data-driven'approach. The Brief begins with an introduction to the theoretical framework of the model and the KGEMM methodology and then walks the reader through the structure of the model and its behavioral equations. The book closes with simulations showing the application of the model. Providing a detailed introduction to a cutting-edge, robust predictive model, this Brief will be of great use to researchers and policymakers interested in macroeconomics, energy economics, econometrics, and more specifically, the economy of Saudi Arabia.

An essential origin story of modern society's most influential economic doctrine. The Chicago School of economic thought has been subject to endless generalizations—and mischaracterizations—in contemporary debate. What is often portrayed as a monolithic obsession with markets is, in fact, a nuanced set of economic theories born from decades of research and debate. The Monetarists is a deeply researched history of the monetary policies—and personalities—that codified the Chicago School of monetary thought from the 1930s through the 1960s. These policies can be characterized broadly as monetarism: the belief that prices and interest rates can be kept stable by controlling the amount of money in circulation. As economist George S. Tavlas makes clear, these ideas were more than just the legacy of Milton Friedman; they were a tradition in theory brought forth by a crucible of minds and debates throughout campus. Through unprecedented mining of archival material, The Monetarists offers the first complete history of one of the twentieth century's most formative intellectual periods and places. It promises to elevate our understanding of this doctrine and its origins for generations to come.

Milton Friedman is widely recognized as one of the most influential economists of the twentieth century. Yet no previous study has distilled Friedman's vast body of writings into an authoritative account of his research, his policy views, and his interventions in public debate. With this ambitious new work, Edward Nelson closes the gap: Milton Friedman and Economic Debate in the United States is the defining narrative on the famed economist, the first to grapple comprehensively with Friedman's research output, economic framework, and legacy. This two-volume account provides a foundational introduction to Friedman's role in several major economic debates that took place in the United States between 1932 and 1972. The first volume, which takes the story through 1960, covers the period in which Friedman began and developed his research on monetary policy. It traces Friedman's thinking from his professional beginnings in the 1930s as a combative young microeconomist, to his wartime years on the staff of the US Treasury, and his emergence in the postwar period as a leading proponent of monetary policy. The second volume covers the years between 1960 and 1972— years that saw the publication of Friedman and Anna Schwartz's Monetary History of the United States. The book also covers Friedman's involvement in a number of debates in the 1960s and 1970s, on topics such as unemployment, inflation, consumer protection, and the environment. As a fellow monetary economist, Nelson writes from a unique vantage point, drawing on both his own expertise in monetary analysis and his deep familiarity with Friedman's writings. Using extensive documentation, the book weaves together Friedman's research contributions and his engagement in public debate, providing an unparalleled analysis of Friedman's views on the economic developments of his day.

Milton Friedman is widely recognized as one of the most influential economists of the twentieth century. Yet no previous study has distilled Friedman's vast body of writings into an authoritative account of his research, his policy views, and his interventions in public debate. With this ambitious new work, Edward Nelson closes the gap: Milton Friedman and Economic Debate in the United States is the defining narrative on the famed economist, the first to grapple comprehensively with Friedman's research output, economic framework, and legacy. This two-volume account provides a foundational introduction to Friedman's role in several major economic debates that took place in the United States between 1932 and 1972. The first volume, which takes the story through 1960, covers the period in which Friedman began and developed his research on monetary policy. It traces Friedman's thinking from his professional beginnings in the 1930s as a combative young microeconomist, to his wartime years on the staff of the US Treasury, and his emergence in the postwar period as a leading proponent of monetary policy. The second volume covers the years between 1960 and 1972— years that saw the publication of Friedman and Anna Schwartz's Monetary History of the United States. The book also covers Friedman's involvement in a number of debates in the 1960s and 1970s, on topics such as unemployment, inflation, consumer protection, and the environment. As a fellow monetary economist, Nelson writes from a unique vantage point, drawing on both his own expertise in monetary analysis and his deep familiarity with Friedman's writings. Using extensive documentation, the book weaves together Friedman's research contributions and his engagement in public debate, providing an unparalleled analysis of Friedman's views on the economic developments of his day.

The Virginia School's economics of natural equals makes consent critical for policy. Democracy is understood as government by discussion, not majority rule. The claim of efficiency unsupported by consent, as common in orthodox economics, appeals to social hierarchy. Politics becomes an act of exchange among equals where the economist is only entitled to offer advice to citizens, not to dictators. The foundation of natural equality and consent explains the common themes of James Buchanan and John Rawls as well as Ronald Coase and the Fabian socialists. What orthodox economics treats as efficient racial discrimination violates the fair chance entitlement to which people consent in a market economy. The importance of replication stressed by Gordon Tullock, developing themes from Karl Popper, is another expression of natural equality since the foresight of replication induces care into research. The publication of previously unpublished correspondence and documentation allows the reader to judge recent controversy.

How the creation of the Nobel Prize in Economics changed the economics profession, Sweden, and the worldEconomic theory may be speculative, but its impact is powerful and real. Since the 1970s, it has been closely associated with a sweeping change around the world—the'market turn.'This is what Avner Offer and Gabriel Söderberg call the rise of market liberalism, a movement that, seeking to replace social democracy, holds up buying and selling as the norm for human relations and society. Our confidence in markets comes from economics, and our confidence in economics is underpinned by the Nobel Prize in Economics, which was first awarded in 1969. Was it a coincidence that the market turn and the prize began at the same time? The Nobel Factor, the first book to describe the origins and power of the most important prize in economics, explores this and related questions by examining the history of the prize, the history of economics since the prize began, and the simultaneous struggle between market liberals and social democrats in Sweden, Europe, and the United States.The Nobel Factor tells how the prize, created by the Swedish central bank, emerged from a conflict between central bank orthodoxy and social democracy. The aim was to use the halo of the Nobel brand to enhance central bank authority and the prestige of market-friendly economics, in order to influence the future of Sweden and the rest of the developed world. And this strategy has worked, with sometimes disastrous results for societies striving to cope with the requirements of economic theory and deregulated markets.Drawing on previously untapped Swedish national bank archives and providing a unique analysis of the sway of prizewinners, The Nobel Factor offers an unprecedented account of the real-world consequences of economics—and its greatest prize.

Commodity markets present several challenges for quantitative modeling. These include high volatilities, small sample data sets, and physical, operational complexity. In addition, the set of traded products in commodity markets is more limited than in financial or equity markets, making value extraction through trading more difficult. These facts make it very easy for modeling efforts to run into serious problems, as many models are very sensitive to noise and hence can easily fail in practice. Modeling and Valuation of Energy Structures is a comprehensive guide to quantitative and statistical approaches that have been successfully employed in support of trading operations, reflecting the author's 17 years of experience as a front-office'quant'. The major theme of the book is that simpler is usually better, a message that is drawn out through the reality of incomplete markets, small samples, and informational constraints. The necessary mathematical tools for understanding these issues are thoroughly developed, with many techniques (analytical, econometric, and numerical) collected in a single volume for the first time. A particular emphasis is placed on the central role that the underlying market resolution plays in valuation. Examples are provided to illustrate that robust, approximate valuations are to be preferred to overly ambitious attempts at detailed qualitative modeling.

DIE REIHE: SCHRIFTENREIHE ZU ORDNUNGSFRAGEN DER WIRTSCHAFTherausgegeben von Thomas Apolte, Martin Leschke, Albrecht F. Michler, Christian Müller,Rahel M. Schomaker und Dirk WentzelDie Reihe diskutiert aktuelle ordnungspolitische und institutionenökonomische Fragestellungen. Durch die methodische Vielfalt richtet sie sich an Fachleute, an die Öffentlichkeit und an die Politikberatung.

Milton Friedman is widely regarded as one of the most influential economists of the twentieth century. Although he made many important contributions to both economic theory and policy - most clearly demonstrated by his development of and support for monetarism - he was also active in various spheres of public policy, where he more often than not pursued his championing of the free market and liberty. This volume assesses the importance of the full range of Friedman's ideas, from his work on methodology in economics, his highly innovative consumption theory, and his extensive research on monetary economics, to his views on contentious social and political issues such as education, conscription, and drugs. It also presents personal recollections of Friedman by some of those who knew him, both as students and colleagues, and offers new evidence on Friedman's interactions with other noted economists, including George Stigler and Lionel Robbins. The volume provides readers with an up to date account of Friedman's work and continuing influence and will help to inform and stimulate further research across a variety of areas, including macroeconomics, the history of economic thought, as well as the development and different uses of public policy. With contributions from a stellar cast, this book will be invaluable to academics and students alike.

Trotz jahrzehntelanger Forschung zur Gültigkeit der Hypothese informationseffizienter Kapitalmärkte (EMH) sind wesentliche damit verbundene Fragestellungen noch immer ungeklärt. Eine ist diejenige nach der Existenz und der Erklärung von zeitvariablen Überrenditen ('Time Varying Excess Returns', TVER), die im Verdacht stehen, Mean Reversion (MR) - als einen Gegenentwurf zur Random Walk-Hypothese - in den Zeitreihen von Wertpapierpreisen zu generieren. Norbert Tolksdorf beabsichtigt zum einen, den theoretischen Bezugsrahmen für zeitvariable Überrenditen umfassend aufzudecken und einen Inferenzraum aufzustellen, der es erlaubt, Mean Reversion-Effekte im Spannungsfeld der Erwartungsnutzentheorie sowie in Ansätzen der Behavioral Finance auf internationalen Aktienmärkten zu modellieren. Zum anderen verfolgt der Autor das Ziel, Umfang und Typus von Mean Reversion unter Rückgriff auf ein breites ökonometrisches Instrumentarium zu quantifizieren sowie die Timing-Fähigkeit der aus dem spezifizierten Inferenzraum extrahierten Signale am Beispiel des DJGI World (Total Return Index) zu überprüfen und das Potential intertemporaler Arbitrage aufzudecken. Es werden Implikationen für das Asset Management und die Geldpolitik abgeleitet.

First Published in 1994. Nicholas Kaldor was born in Hungary in 1908 and died as Baron Kaldor of Newnham in the City of Cambridge, England, in 1986. The years between revealed no hint of scandal or psychological problems that might make Kaldor the subject of a novel. His life was, instead, a straight line of growth and achievement, of intellectual enjoyment and strong values. Kaldor's struggles were intellectual-namely, his efforts to comprehend the economics of the real world, to fit this understanding into economic theory, and to convince his fellow citizens and economists of the accuracy of his perceptions. Kaldor forces us to ponder what the relationship between economic theory and practice should be.

This book presents modern developments in time series econometrics that are applied to macroeconomic and financial time series, bridging the gap between methods and realistic applications. It presents the most important approaches to the analysis of time series, which may be stationary or nonstationary. Modelling and forecasting univariate time series is the starting point. For multiple stationary time series, Granger causality tests and vector autogressive models are presented. As the modelling of nonstationary uni- or multivariate time series is most important for real applied work, unit root and cointegration analysis as well as vector error correction models are a central topic. Tools for analysing nonstationary data are then transferred to the panel framework. Modelling the (multivariate) volatility of financial time series with autogressive conditional heteroskedastic models is also treated.

When President Reagan and Prime Minister Thatcher adopted the neoliberal doctrine as the paradigm of economics, there was no evidence that the move would have been successful, but thirty years on, the recurrent crises that culminated in 2008 suggest a serious mis-match between expectations and outcomes: a re-examination of the paradigm is in order. This book focuses on Milton Friedman's formulation of the neoliberal doctrine, and analyses two aspects that were essential to turning it into a fully-fledged paradigm: the attribution of scientific status to positive economics, which led to informing public policies on the requirements of the market; and the characterisation of economic freedom as capable of promoting political freedom, which led to identifying free market with democracy. The book exposes Friedman's methodological argument for attributing positive economics scientific status as a failure, and his characterisation of economic freedom as a delusion; it identifies in the emergence as the mainstream in economics of the neoclassical synthesis, which borrowed from Walras'the mathematical treatment of equilibrium but not the ethical and social framework in which it was inscribed, a development that facilitated the transition from the Keynesian to the neoliberal paradigm. Dr. Mosini shows that the gigantic bail-outs carried out courtesy of the public purse, which institutionalised the practice of collectivising losses while keeping profits private, were no accident, but the consequence of the rethinking of the function of lender of last resort according to Friedman's conception of rationality in relation to risk, combined with his interpretation of the 1930s recession. The book concludes that the neoliberal paradigm has served the interests of the economically powerful social strata it was designed to benefit extremely well, but that the deep, and deepening, injustice it has brought about calls for a complete rethinking of the paradigm of economics according to ethical principles respectful of human values. This book should be of interest to students and researchers of Political Economy, Economic Methodology, History of Economic Thought and Philosophy.

Mexico's economic, political and societal issues have become major points of interest to countries all over the globe.Mexico is the second leading market for U.S. exports after Canada, and is the third most important source of U.S. imports after Canada and China. The United States is Mexico's most important customer by far, receiving about 80% of Mexico's exports, including petroleum, automobiles, auto parts, and winter vegetables, and providing about 50% of Mexico's imports. The United States is the source of over 60% of foreign investment in Mexico, and the primary source of important tourism earnings. Mexico is also the leading country in Latin America in terms of U.S.investment, with the total stock of U.S. investment being about $85 billion in 2006. This new book presents in-depth analyses of such issues such as foreign policy, political reform, and overall economic developments.

An anthology of works on the philosophy of economics, including classic texts and essays exploring specific branches and schools of economics. Completely revamped, this edition contains new selections, a revised introduction and a bibliography. The volume contains 26 chapters organized into five parts: (I) Classic Discussions, (II) Positivist and Popperian Views, (III) Ideology and Normative Economics, (IV) Branches and Schools of Economics and Their Methodological Problems and (V) New Directions in Economic Methodology. It includes crucial historical contributions by figures such as Mill, Marx, Weber, Robbins, Knight, and Veblen and works by most of the leading contemporary figures writing on economic methodology, including five Nobel Laureates in Economics.

The book brings together papers on a range of issues that are of relevance to the Indian economy and polity in the new millennium. The contributors examine issues relating to growth and macro-economic fundamentals, the state of and future prospects for industry and agriculture in an era of high growth and globalization. Growing regional disparities, gender issues and other forms of inequity dominate the analysis of health care, migration, fertility and mortality related issues. Contributors also analyse contentious issues at the interface of environment and development, such as environmental efficiency of industry, links between alternative notions of value and household use of biomass. In a complementary manner, sociological perspectives on religion, family, gender and state introduce into the volume a qualitative analysis of the social institutions within the framework of which economic growth and structural change take place.

The entirely new International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences covers scholarship and fields that have emerged and matured since the publication of the original international edition. Like its predecessors, the set meets the needs of high school and college students, researchers inside and outside academia, and lay readers in public libraries. The new set highlights the expanding influence of economics in social science research and features nearly 3,000 entirely new articles and important biographies contributed by thousands of scholars (including several Nobel prize winners) from around the world on a wide array of global topics, including: achievement testing, censorship, personality measurement, aging, income distribution, foreign aid (political and economic aspects), food (world problems, consumption patterns), cultural adaptation, comparative health-care systems, terrorism, political correctness, agricultural innovation, legislation of morality, sexual violence and exploitation, white collar crime. The new 2nd edition also features biographical profiles of the major contributors to the study of the social sciences, past and present. Highlights of the new set include: 2,990 articles contributed by a team of international scholars, including hundreds of entries covering the increasingly influential fields of economics and statistics Written for researchers inside and outside academia; perfect for advanced high school and college students as well as teachers, lay readers and professionals Also available in eBook format, providing full search capabilities 24/7 access; no special readers of hardware required

This volume is a collection of papers which were presented at the 7th conference meeting of the Arnoldshain Research Network in Vienna 2006. Numerous researchers from the European Union and Latin American countries have contributed papers on trade, integration, open economy macroeconomics and the institutional framework, which all play an important role for economic development in Latin America. In the spirit of comparative economics, Latin American policies can deeply benefit from experience gained in the European Union. Comparisons as well as bilateral relations have entered in a manifold wa.

This book contains the most important approaches to analyze time series which may be stationary or nonstationary. It starts with modeling and forecasting univariate time series and then presents Granger causality tests and vector autoregressive models for multiple stationary time series. It also covers modeling volatilities of financial time series with autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

This book takes a global approach, with an emphasis on North and Latin America respectfully, by discussing one of today's most controversial topics in business; Dollarization. With the collapse of the former Soviet Union, and the formation of the Euro in Europe, many countries and debating whether or not a common currency is in their best interest. This intriguing volume brings together the leading participants in the current dollarization debates. Many advocate the notion of a common currency, while others feel that in doing so will create financial costs for all that take part, with the severity varying from country to country.

In China, aggregate investment levels have been high and the cycles of investment growth rate have been remarkable. In order to reveal the mechanisms which drive investment hunger and cycles, this book develops an integrated growth-cycle framework which integrates the standard theory of socialist economies, the distributive barrier-constrained growth theory of developing economies, and the recent technical progresses in the western business cycle theory. It also analyzes the evolutionary dynamics of China's state investment system and the policy trade-off between industrial expansion and agricultural development.

This volume, fourth in a series of periodic histories of the institution, is as much a history of the world economy during 1979-89 as one of the IMF itself. Boughton discusses the IMF's surveillance of the international monetary system in the 1980s; the Fund's role in the international debt crisis of the 1980s, and IMF lending in support of structural adjustment in low-income countries during that period. The volume concludes with a general history of the institution, including the quota system, the SDR, membership, and other institutional matters.

When John Maynard Keynes likened Jan Tinbergen's early work in econometrics to black magic and alchemy, he was expressing a widely held view of a new discipline. However, even after half a century of practical work and theorizing by some of the most accomplished social scientists, Keynes'comments are still repeated today. This book assesses the foundations and development of econometrics and sets out a basis for the reconstruction of the foundations of econometric inference by examining the various interpretations of probability theory which underlie econometrics. Keuzenkamp claims that the probabilistic foundations of econometrics are weak, and although econometric inferences may yield interesting knowledge, claims to be able to falsify or verify economic theories are unwarranted. Methodological falsificationism in econometrics is an illusion. Instead, it is argued, econometrics should locate itself in the tradition of positivism.

The study cautiously identifies exchange rate misalignment as an important element in most of the exchange rate crises that plagued the developing world during the last decade. Given that the increasing integration of world capital markets, has escalated the costs of such crises, a broad consensus emerged in recent years, that the overriding objective of exchange rate policy in developing countries, should be to avoid episodes of prolonged, and substantial misalignment, i.e., situations in which the actual real exchange rate differs significantly from its long-run equilibrium value. It was the Bank's involvement in one such misalignment episode, that eventually led to this book. Following an overview on the concepts and measurement of exchange rate misalignment, its impact on the purchasing power parity, and the relationship between the external real exchange rate (RER), and the two-good internal RER for tradables non-tradables, the study presents methodologies - empirical applications - for estimating the RER equilibrium. The study reaches an optimistic conclusion - that enough is known to identify cases of misalignment, and be able to sound clear warning signals. The implication for exchange rate policy is that ignorance about the empirical value of the equilibrium exchange rate, cannot be used to clinch arguments for extreme exchange arrangements, such as clean floats, currency boards, and'dollarization.'

Arguing that the ultimate resource is the human imagination coupled to the human spirit, Julian Simon led a vigorous challenge to conventional beliefs about scarcity of energy and natural resources, pollution of the environment, the effects of immigration, and the'perils of overpopulation.'The comprehensive data, careful quantitative research, and economic logic contained in the first edition of The Ultimate Resource questioned widely held professional judgments about the threat of overpopulation, and Simon's celebrated bet with Paul Ehrlich about resource prices in the 1980s enhanced the public attention--both pro and con--that greeted this controversial book. Now Princeton University Press presents a revised and expanded edition of The Ultimate Resource. The new volume is thoroughly updated and provides a concise theory for the observed trends: Population growth and increased income put pressure on supplies of resources. This increases prices, which provides opportunity and incentive for innovation. Eventually the innovative responses are so successful that prices end up below what they were before the shortages occurred. The book also tackles timely issues such as the supposed rate of species extinction, the'vanishing farmland crisis,'and the wastefulness of coercive recycling. In Simon's view, the key factor in natural and world economic growth is our capacity for the creation of new ideas and contributions to knowledge. The more people alive who can be trained to help solve the problems that confront us, the faster we can remove obstacles, and the greater the economic inheritance we shall bequeath to our descendants. In conjunction with the size of the educated population, the key constraint on human progress is the nature of the economic-political system: talented people need economic freedom and security to bring their talents to fruition.

Drawing together new papers by some of today's leading figures in international economics and finance, Understanding Interdependence surveys the current state of knowledge on the international monetary system and, by implication, defines the research horizon for the future. Covering topics including the behavior of exchange rates, the choice of exchange-rate regime, current-account adjustment in classical and Keynesian models, the extent and effects of capital mobility, international debt, the stabilization and reform of the formerly planned economies, European monetary union, and international policy coordination, the book underscores the importance of these subjects and identifies lessons for policymakers. The contributors to the volume are Michael Bruno, Ralph C. Bryant, Richard N. Cooper, Michael P. Dooley, Barry Eichengreen, Stanley Fischer, Charles A. E. Goodhart, Peter Hooper, Peter B. Kenen, Paul R. Krugman, Henri Lorie, Jaime Marquez, Ronald I. McKinnon, Michael Mussa, Maurice Obstfeld, John Odling-Smee, Assaf Razin, Dani Rodrik, Mark P. Taylor, and John Williamson.

A lively answer to those who sound alarms about population growth and resource useThe Ultimate Resource challenges conventional beliefs about the scarcity of energy and natural resources, the pollution of the environment, and the perils of overpopulation for our standard of living. In this provocative book, Julian Lincoln Simon argues that natural resources are not finite in any meaningful way, and that using such resources now will not slow the rate of future economic growth. In the short run, all resources are limited. A greater use of any resource means pressure on its supply and hence an increased price. In the long run, however, history shows that human creativity overcomes natural obstacles to economic growth and leads to a lower cost and price than before. The ultimate resource, Simon contends, is the human imagination coupled to the human spirit.This timely book will fundamentally change how you think about a host of issues, from immigration and human fertility to forecasts of population change and the use of taxpayer dollars for population control. The Ultimate Resource demonstrates that the primary constraint on our national and world economic growth is our capacity for the creation of new ideas. The more people who can be trained to help solve the problems that confront us, the faster we might remove the obstacles, and the greater the economic inheritance we can bequeath to our descendants.

Experts define, review, and evaluate economic fluctuations Economic and business uncertainty dominate today's economic analyses. This new Encyclopedia illuminates the subject by offering 323 original articles on every major aspect of business cycles, fluctuations, financial crises, recessions, and depressions. The work of more than 200 experts, including many of the leading researchers in the field, the articles cover a broad range of subjects, including capsule biographies of leading economists born before 1920. Individual entries explore banking panics, the cobweb cycle, consumer durables, the depression of 1937-1938, Otto Eckstein, Friedrich Engels, experimental price bubbles, forced savings, lass-Steagall Act, Friedrich hagen, qualitative indicators, use of macro-econometric models, monetary neutrality, Phillips Curve, Paul Samuelson, Say's law, supply-side recessions, James Tokin, trend and random wages, Thorstein Veblen, worker-job turnover, and more.

China encountered problems preserving economic stability while pursuing reforms aimed at increasing its economic flexibility and efficiency. This paper examines China's experience with market-oriented reforms since 1978, offering lessons for other centrally planned economies in the midst of transition to free markets.

In the last decade, time-series econometrics has made extraordinary developments on unit roots and cointegration. However, this progress has taken divergent directions, and has been subjected to criticism from outside the field. In this book, Professor Hatanaka surveys the field, examines those portions that are useful for macroeconomics, and responds to the criticism. His survey of the literature covers not only econometric methods, but also the application of these methods to macroeconomic studies. The most vigorous criticism has been that unit roots to do not exist in macroeconomic variables, and thus that cointegration analysis is irrelevant to macroeconomics. The judgement of this book is that unit roots are present in macroeconomic variables when we consider periods of 20 to 40 years, but that the critics may be right when periods of 100 years are considered. Fortunately, most of the time series data used for macroeconomic studies cover fall within the shorter time span. Among the numerous methods for unit roots and cointegration, those useful from macroeconomic studies are examined and explained in detail, without overburdening the reader with unnecessary mathematics. Other, less applicable methods are dicussed briefly, and their weaknesses are exposed. Hatanaka has rigourously based his judgements about usefulness on whether the inference is appropriate for the length of the data sets available, and also on whether a proper inference can be made on the sort of propositions that macroeconomists wish to test. This book highlights the relations between cointegration and economic theories, and presents cointegrated regression as a revolution in econometric methods. Its analysis is of relevance to academic and professional or applied econometricians. Step-by-step explanations of concepts and techniques make the book a self-contained text for graduate students.