1. Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Maize (Zea mays L.) Production and Choice of Adaptation Practices in Eastern Ethiopia.
- Author
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Teshome, Helen, Tesfaye, Kindie, Dechassa, Nigussie, Tana, Tamado, and Huber, Matthew
- Abstract
Climate change poses challenges to maize production and productivity in eastern Ethiopia. Impact assessment using climate predictions is the prime step to design adaptation strategies. Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Maize model in DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) was calibrated using GenCalc software. The model was used to simulate change in maize yield in the baseline (1988–2017) and future climate periods (2030s and 2050s) under (Representative Concentration Pathways) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using 17 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase Five) GCMs (Global Circulation Models). During calibration and evaluation of the model excellent agreement of measured and simulated anthesis, and days to physiological maturity for all the cultivars with normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) of less than 10% and R
2 value of 0.99 was obtained. The seasonal leaf area index (LAI) and top weight progressions were also predicted well by the model with d-index of 0.96 and 0.99, respectively. Excellent (nRMSE < 10) to good (nRMSE 10–20) predictions were also obtained for grain yield and tops weight. The average annual temperature would increase by (1.90 ± 0.36)o C, (2.45 ± 0.53)o C and rainfall would increase (8 ± 5) %, (12 ± 8) % under RCP 4.5 in 2030s and 2050s, respectively across GCMs compared to baseline in the study area. As a result in 2030s yield reduction, – 10.6% to – 15.4% and – 7.4% to – 9.3% in 2050s of maize cultivar was projected across GCMs. In 2030s and 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 long maturing cultivars (BH661) on 15th May planting with 130.5 kg N ha–1 application predicted the highest maize grain yield.Highlights: Climate change poses challenges to maize production and productivity. Adaptation strategies such as cultivars, planting dates, and nitrogen fertilizer rates were assessed. Under RCP4.5 and 8.5 in 2030s the highest maize grain yield predicted by planting late maturing (BH661) cultivar on 15 May with 130.5 kg ha–1 nitrogen fertilizer application. In 2050s planting late maturing (Raare-1) cultivar with 87 kg ha–1 nitrogen fertilizer application under RCP4.5 and, Planting late maturing (BH661) cultivar with 130.5 kg ha–1 nitrogen fertilizer application under RCP8.5 predicted to give higher yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2024
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