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In this review, we successively present the methods for phenomenological modeling of the evolution of reported and unreported cases of COVID-19, both in the exponential phase of growth and then in a complete epidemic wave. After the case of an isolated wave, we present the modeling of several successive waves separated by endemic stationary periods. Then, we treat the case of multi-compartmental models without or with age structure. Eventually, we review the literature, based on 260 articles selected in 11 sections, ranging from the medical survey of hospital cases to forecasting the dynamics of new cases in the general population. This review favors the phenomenological approach over the mechanistic approach in the choice of references and provides simulations of the evolution of the number of observed cases of COVID-19 for 10 states (California, China, France, India, Israel, Japan, New York, Peru, Spain and United Kingdom). • Social changes influencing the contact rate transmission. • Phenomenological model and predictions for epidemic outbreaks. • Time-dependent parameters identification in epidemic models. • Environmental changes influencing the contact rate of transmission. • Public health policies and mutation dynamics changing the conditions of contagion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Selcuk University Social Sciences Institute Journal is the property of Selcuk University Social Sciences Institute Journal and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Thanks to how Girolamo Fracastoro defines the different types of contagion in his book De contagione, et contagiosis morbis et eorum curatione, libri tres (1546), and his defense of the "seeds of contagion" (seedbed) as the cause of contagious diseases, he is considered today one parent of the modern epidemiology and microbiology. One of the crucial problems in this book is to explain the remote transmission of the contagious diseases refuting the étiologie use of the occult qualities. The aim of this study is to investigate the philosophical back ground of the problem and draw the conclusions that his solution had for medicine and for science in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Objective: To evaluate the berries of Phytolacca dodecandra (P. dodecandra) for its effect on Histoplasma capsulatum var. farciminosum (HCF) and for the treatment of cases of epizootic lymphangitis (EL). Methods: Samples were collected from un-ruptured nodules of cases of EL at Debre Zeit and Akaki (central Ethiopia). Mycological culture and isolation of HCF were performed at the Aklilu Lemma Institute of Pathobiology. Phytochemical screening was done for n-butanol extract of P. dodecandra to detect alkaloids, saponins, phenolic compounds and flavonoids. The minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) and minimum fungicidal concentrations (MFCs) of aqueous and n-butanol extracts of P. dodecandra against HCF were determined by agar dilution assay. For the in vivo trial, 5% simple ointment was prepared from n-butanol extract and applied topically to 24 (twelve early and twelve moderate) cases of EL. Results: Phytochemical screening showed that n-butanol extract of P. dodecandra was positive for alkaloids, saponins and phenolic compounds but negative for flavonoids. The MICs of n-butanol and aqueous extracts of P. dodecandra were (0.039%–0.078%) and (0.625%–1.250%), respectively. The MFCs of n-butanol and aqueous extracts of P. dodecandra were (0.078%–0.156%) and (1.250%–2.500%), respectively. The MIC and MFC of ketoconazole (positive control) was (1.200×10−5%–2.500×10−5%) and (5.000×10−5%–1.000×10−4%), respectively while growth was observed on free medium (negative control). From the total of 24 treated cases of EL, 14 (58.3%) responded to treatment; however, 10 (41.7%) did not respond to treatment. There was no significant difference in the degree of response to treatment between early and moderate cases (χ2=0.686; P=0.408). Conclusions: It can be concluded that n-butanol extract of P. dodecandra demonstrates antifungal effects while the aqueous extract shows no antifungal activity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Anthrax is a zoonotic disease caused by Bacillus anthracis. It is potentially fatal and highly contagious disease. Herbivores are the natural host. Human acquire the disease incidentally by contact with infected animal or animal products. In the 18th century an epidemic destroyed approximately half of the sheep in Europe. In 1900 human inhalational anthrax occured sporadically in the United States. In 1979 an outbreak of human anthrax occured in Sverdlovsk of Soviet Union. Anthrax continued to represent a world wide presence. The incidence of the disease has decreased in developed countries as a result of vaccination and improved industrial hygiene. Human anthrax clinically presents in three forms, i.e. cutaneous, gastrointestinal and inhalational. About 95% of human anthrax is cutaneous and 5% is inhalational. Gastrointestinal anthrax is very rare (less than 1%). Inhalational form is used as a biological warefare agent. Penicillin, ciprofloxacin (and other quinolones), doxicyclin, ampicillin, imipenem, clindamycin, clarithromycin, vancomycin, chloramphenicol, rifampicin are effective antimicrobials. Antimicrobial therapy for 60 days is recommended. Human anthrax vaccine is available. Administration of anti-protective antigen (PA) antibody in combination with ciprofloxacin produced 90%–100% survival. The combination of CPG-adjuvanted anthrax vaccine adsorbed (AVA) plus dalbavancin significantly improved survival. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Copyright of Salud Uninorte is the property of Fundacion Universidad del Norte and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article focuses on the etymology and historical usage of two terms related to sickness, the Greek "epidēmia" and the Latin "pestis." The authors trace the Greek word to its use in ancient Greece related to something or someone that visits and discuss the lexical discontinuity with its historical use in medicine as a disease category. After commenting on the etymology of the Latin word "pestis," the authors explore the semantic confusion between "epidēmia" and "pestis." and traces their linguistic association to a sequence of four medical writings including two medical works by Greek physician Hippocrates and a commentary by Roman physician Galen. The authors relate the discussion to the Spanish term "peste" used for plagues including the medieval Bubonic plague or "Peste Negra."

In this paper, we examine the stock markets' response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using daily COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths and stock market returns data from 64 countries over the period January 22, 2020 to April 17, 2020, we find that stock markets responded negatively to the growth in COVID-19 confirmed cases. That is, stock market returns declined as the number of confirmed cases increased. We further find that stock markets reacted more proactively to the growth in number of confirmed cases as compared to the growth in number of deaths. Our analysis also suggests negative market reaction was strong during early days of confirmed cases and then between 40 and 60 days after the initial confirmed cases. Overall, our results suggest that stock markets quickly respond to COVID-19 pandemic and this response varies over time depending on the stage of outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Imported cases can support the persistence of contagious diseases. • Cellular automaton and differential equations are used to investigate this issue. • The contribution of imported cases to the endemic level decreases with infectivity. • Vaccine-preventable diseases can only be eradicated by thinking globally. Contagious diseases can chronically persist in host populations. Here, this persistence is investigated by using an epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA). In this model, imported cases and vaccination are both considered. From a mean-field approximation written in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODE), it is shown that this model has a single stationary solution. This solution corresponds to an endemic equilibrium point, which is locally asymptotically stable. The impact of the imported cases on this attractive endemic solution is analytically estimated from the ODE system and numerically confirmed from computer simulations with the PCA model. The relevance of this study for controlling the spread of infectious diseases is discussed from a public health perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]