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This study focuses on variation of the prevalence rate of COVID-19 over time by age and race/ethnicity, and how neighborhood social vulnerability affects the COVID-19 prevalence in the whole epidemic as well as its three consecutive sub-waves in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin. It found that the highest prevalence rate was for young adults (18-44). Hispanics and Asians were more likely to be infected than were non-Hispanic whites and African Americans. The high neighborhood social vulnerability was associated with greater risk of infection especially for persons over age 25, for Hispanics and Asians. High prevalence rates were significantly and strongly associated with all major factors of the social vulnerability in early stage of the pandemic, especially with the factor associated with Hispanic and immigrant population. Throughout the epidemic, the Hispanic/immigrant and African American factors had a reduced but still significant effect, but the socioeconomic factor was not significant and the explained variance across neighborhoods was smaller.

Social vulnerability has been an important concept to characterize the extent to which human society is vulnerable to hazards. Although it is well known that social vulnerability varies across space and over time, there is only a paucity of studies to examine the basic patterns of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the social vulnerability in the United States. This study examines the spatial and temporal dynamics of social vulnerability of the U.S. counties from 1970 to 2010. For each decade, social vulnerability of counties is quantified by the social vulnerability index (SoVI) using county-level social, economic, demographic, and built environment characteristics. The SoVI is mainly designed to quantify the cross-sectional variation of social vulnerability and is not conducive to direct comparison over time. This study implements a methodology that integrates quantile standardization, sequence alignment analysis, and cluster analysis to investigate how social vulnerability of U.S. counties has changed over time. The authors find that U.S. counties exhibit distinctive spatial and longitudinal patterns, and there are counties/areas which have persistent high or low social vulnerability as well as frequent change in their social vulnerability over time. The results can be useful for policymakers, disaster managers, planning officials, and social scientists in general.

PurposeThe Cardiff Model has reduced violence in Cardiff, Wales through data collection in emergency departments (EDs), geospatial analysis of combined ED and police data and data-informed prevention approaches. We describe initial results of combining multiple data sources to develop an enhanced violence surveillance system in Milwaukee, WI.MethodsGeographic data on assaults was collected in a level one paediatric trauma centre. For assault incidents between 1/2015–9/2016, where a juvenile was a victim, combined ED and emergency medical services (EMS) geographic data (ED/EMS; n=935) were analysed alongside block-level police assault and violence incident data (n=1,837). Nearest neighbour hierarchical spatial clustering detected hotspots of 10 or more incidents within various distance thresholds. Overlap of police incidents in ED/EMS hotspots (and vice versa) was calculated and Spearman’s rho tested statistical associations between the datasets.ResultsOver 90% of assaults in the ED/EMS dataset were not recorded by police. High density hotspots in the ED/EMS dataset did not include a majority of incidents recorded by police. Approximately 59% of ED/EMS incidents occurred in large police hotspots without police knowledge’”police were unaware of one assault incident (serviced by ED/EMS) for every 3 incidents that they recorded. The two datasets were significantly correlated at most hotspot distance thresholds.ConclusionPreliminary analyses suggest that police, ED and EMS attend to and record some juvenile assaults without the knowledge of the other sectors. An enhanced surveillance system may result in a more comprehensive picture of community violence and could become a tool for prevention activities.SignificanceMore comprehensive surveillance may promote a paradigm shift from a focus on reactionary tactics and treatment of injuries to targeted place-based prevention strategies that data-informed. These efforts could lead to decreases in injuries seen in EDs, assaults reported to the police, and to significant cost savings for each dollar spent.