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Despite more than half a century of hominin fossil discoveries in eastern Africa, the regional environmental context of hominin evolution and dispersal is not well established due to the lack of continuous palaeoenvironmental records from one of the proven habitats of early human populations, particularly for the Pleistocene epoch. Here we present a 620,000-year environmental record from Chew Bahir, southern Ethiopia, which is proximal to key fossil sites. Our record documents the potential influence of different episodes of climatic variability on hominin biological and cultural transformation. The appearance of high anatomical diversity in hominin groups coincides with long-lasting and relatively stable humid conditions from ~620,000 to 275,000 years bp(episodes 1–6), interrupted by several abrupt and extreme hydroclimate perturbations. A pattern of pronounced climatic cyclicity transformed habitats during episodes 7–9 (~275,000–60,000 years bp), a crucial phase encompassing the gradual transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age technologies, the emergence of Homo sapiensin eastern Africa and key human social and cultural innovations. Those accumulative innovations plus the alignment of humid pulses between northeastern Africa and the eastern Mediterranean during high-frequency climate oscillations of episodes 10–12 (~60,000–10,000 years bp) could have facilitated the global dispersal of H. sapiens.

The directly dated RRMarch2021age model (Roberts et al., 2021) for the ∼293 m long composite core from Chew Bahir, southern Ethiopia, has provided a valuable chronology for long-term climate changes in northeastern Africa. However, the age model has limitations on shorter time scales (less than 1–2 precession cycles), especially in the time range <20 kyr BP (kiloyears before present or thousand years before 1950) and between ∼155 and 428 kyr BP. To address those constraints we developed a partially orbitally tuned age model. A comparison with the ODP Site 967 record of the wetness index from the eastern Mediterranean, 3300 km away but connected to the Ethiopian plateau via the River Nile, suggests that the partially orbitally tuned age model offers some advantages compared to the exclusively directly dated age model, with the limitation of the reduced significance of (cross) spectral analysis results of tuned age models in cause-effect studies. The availability of this more detailed age model is a prerequisite for further detailed spatiotemporal correlations of climate variability and its potential impact on the exchange of different populations of Homo sapiensin the region.

The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Eastern Africa and Arabia were major hominin hotspots and critical crossroads for migrating towards Asia during the late Pleistocene. To decipher the role of spatiotemporal environmental change on human occupation and migration patterns, we remeasured the marine core from Meteor Site KL 15 in the Gulf of Aden and reanalyzed its data together with the aridity index from ICDP Site Chew Bahir in eastern Africa and the wet-dry index from ODP Site 967 in the eastern Mediterranean Sea using linear and nonlinear time series analysis. These analyses show major changes in the spatiotemporal paleoclimate dynamics at 400 and 150 ka BP (thousand years before 1950), presumably driven by changes in the amplitude of the orbital eccentricity. From 400 to 150 ka BP, eastern Africa and Arabia show synchronized wet-dry shifts, which changed drastically at 150 ka BP. After 150 ka BP, an overall trend to dry climate states is observable, and the hydroclimate dynamics between eastern Africa and Arabia are negatively correlated. Those spatio-temporal variations and interrelationships of climate potentially influenced the availability of spatial links for human expansion along those vertices. We observe positively correlated network links during the supposed out-of-Africa migration phases of H. sapiens.Furthermore, our data do not suggest hominin occupation phases during specific time intervals of humid or stable climates but provide evidence of the so far underestimated potential role of climate predictability as an important factor of hominin ecological competitiveness.

High topography in the realm of the rifted East African Plateau is commonly explained by two different mechanisms: (1) rift-flank uplift resulting from mechanical and/or isostatic relaxation and (2) lithospheric uplift due to the impingement of a mantle plume. High topography in East Africa has far-reaching effects on atmospheric circulation systems and the amount and distribution of rainfall in this region. While the climatic and palaeoenvironmental influences of high topography in East Africa are widely accepted, the timing, the magnitude and this spatiotemporal characteristic of changes in topography have remained unclear. This dilemma stems from the lack of datable, geomorphically meaningful reference horizons that could unambiguously record surface uplift. Here, we report on the formation of high topography in East Africa prior to Cenozoic rifting. We infer topographic uplift of the East African Plateau based on the emplacement characteristics of the c. 300 km long and 13.5 Ma Yatta phonolitic lava flow along a former river valley that drained high topography, centred at the present-day rift. The lava flow followed an old riverbed that once routed runoff away from the eastern flank of the plateau. Using a compositional and temperature-dependent viscosity model with subsequent cooling and adjusting for the Yatta lava-flow dimensions and the covered palaeotopography (slope angle), we use the flow as a ‘palaeo-tiltmeter’. Based on these observations and our modelling results, we determine a palaeoslope of the Kenya dome of at least 0.2° prior to rifting and deduce a minimum plateau elevation of 1400 m. We propose that this high topography was caused by thermal expansion of the lithosphere interacting with a heat source generated by a mantle plume. Interestingly, the inferred Mid-Miocene uplift coincides with fundamental palaeoecological changes including the two-step expansion of grasslands in East Africa as well as important radiation and speciation events in tropical Africa.

Around 30,000 14C yr BP, multiple landslides in the Quebrada de Cafayate (26°S, 66°W) dammed the Rı́o de las Conchas and caused a lake in the Santa Maria Basin, NW Argentina. Since climate could have played a major role in landslide generation, we used a lake-balance model to compare the present-day climate with the conditions during landsliding. This model reveals that a hypothetical present-day lake would stabilize around 70m below the reconstructed paleolake level. The volume of the water body would be one third of the corresponding paleolake volume. However, a minimum 10–15% increase in mean-annual precipitation accompanied by at least a 3–4°C drop in temperature would result in a stable lake level at the reconstructed elevation. This result implies wetter and cooler conditions at 30,000 14C yr BP as compared to the present. Wetter climate in turn could help to explain enhanced landsliding in the Quebrada de Cafayate during this time.