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In longitudinal studies with time-varying exposures and mediators, the mediational g-formula is an important method for the assessment of direct and indirect effects. However, current methodologies based on the mediational g-formula can deal with only one mediator. This limitation makes these methodologies inapplicable to many scenarios. Hence, we develop a novel methodology by extending the mediational g-formula to cover cases with multiple time-varying mediators. We formulate two variants of our approach that are each suited to a distinct set of assumptions and effect definitions and present nonparametric identification results of each variant. We further show how complex causal mechanisms (whose complexity derives from the presence of multiple time-varying mediators) can be untangled. We implemented a parametric method, along with a user-friendly algorithm, in R software. We illustrate our method by investigating the complex causal mechanism underlying the progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We found that the effects of lung function impairment mediated by dyspnea symptoms accounted for 14.6% of the total effect and that mediated by physical activity accounted for 11.9%. Our analyses thus illustrate the power of this approach, providing evidence for the mediating role of dyspnea and physical activity on the causal pathway from lung function impairment to health status. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B988.

Path-specific effects are a critical measure for assessing mediation in the presence of multiple mediators. However, the conventional definition of path-specific effects has generated controversy because it often causes misinterpretation of the results of multiple mediator analysis. For in-depth analysis of this issue, we propose the concept of decomposing fully mediated interaction from the average causal effect. We show that misclassification of fully mediated interaction is the main cause of misinterpretation of path-specific effects. We propose two strategies for specifying fully mediated interaction: isolating and reclassifying fully mediated interaction. The choice of strategy depends on the objective. Isolating fully mediated interaction is the superior strategy when the main objective is elucidating the mediation mechanism, whereas reclassifying it is superior when the main objective is precisely interpreting the mediation analysis results. To compare performance, this study used the two proposed strategies and the conventional decomposition strategy to analyze the mediating roles of dyspnea and anxiety in the effect of impaired lung function on poor health status in a population of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The estimation result showed that the conventional decomposition strategy underestimates the importance of dyspnea as a mechanism of this disease. Specifically, the strategy of reclassifying fully mediated interaction revealed that 50% of the average causal effect is attributable to mediating effects, particularly the mediating effect of dyspnea.

Background: Increasing evidence suggests that glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists (RA) can stabilize glycemic variability (GV) and interfere with eating behavior. This study compared the impact of insulin, GLP-1 RA, and dietary components on GV using professional continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). Methods: Patients with type 2 diabetes underwent CGM before and after switching from a twice-daily pre-mixed insulin treatment regimen to a GLP-1 RA (liraglutide) plus basal insulin regimen. The dietary components were recorded and analyzed by a certified dietitian. The interactions between the medical regimen, GV indices, and nutrient components were analyzed. Results: Sixteen patients with type 2 diabetes were enrolled in this study. No significant differences in the diet components and total calorie intake between the two regimens were found. Under the pre-mixed insulin regimen, for increase in carbohydrate intake ratio, mean amplitude of glucose excursion (MAGE) and standard deviation (SD) increased; in contrast, under the new regimen, for increase in fat intake ratio, MAGE and SD decreased, while when the protein intake ratio increased, the coefficient of variation (CV) decreased. The impact of the food intake ratio on GV indices disappeared under the GLP-1 RA regimen. After switching to the GLP-1 RA regimen, the median MAGE, SD, and CV values decreased significantly. However, the significant difference in GV between the two regimens decreased during the daytime. Conclusion: A GLP-1 RA plus basal insulin regimen can stabilize GV better than a regimen of twice-daily pre-mixed insulin, especially in the daytime, and can diminish the effect of food components on GV.