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As electricity systems world-wide are transitioning into increasing levels of variable renewable electricity sources, such as wind power and photovoltaics, increased electrification of other energy sectors has shown to be important for allowing a resource- and cost-efficient integration of these sources. Research has found electrification of district heating to be one of the more promising energy sectors for electrification in relation to integrating variable renewable electricity sources, as district heating allows for the utilization of varied use of different energy conversion technologies and low-cost energy storage solutions. Historically, district heating has mainly been interconnected to the electricity system via combined heat and power units, though research have found that with increasing levels of variable renewable electricity sources the need for electricity consuming conversion units, such as heat pumps, are becoming more important. In this, the national energy system effects of electrification of the district heating sector are investigated. Two future energy system scenarios for two different countries, being Austria and Denmark are made: one with a high degree of district heating utilization and one with a lower degree of district heating utilization. Both countries are expected to utilize increasing levels of variable renewable electricity sources, though the level and type of variable renewables are different due to differences of e.g. in availability hydro power solutions within the countries and the wind and solar resources available. As such, these two countries provide different perspectives on how electrification can be understood under different conditions.

The value of energy system scenarios is increasingly asserted in a decentralised and municipal context. There is, however, a lack of suitable tools for designing such scenarios, particularly tools that empower local planning practitioners in active participation. With this study, we introduce a novel tool designed specifically for municipal energy system modelling, thus bridging the gap between model developers and planning practitioners. The applicability and suitability of the new MUSEPLAN tool is investigated through its application in a case municipality, revolving around the needs of planning practitioners, supporting the build-up of modelling capacity, and focusing on the practical development of energy system scenarios. MUSEPLAN draws on the specialist simulation model EnergyPLAN but provides an environment for integrated design and comparison of multiple scenarios while reducing complexity for some of the advanced options. In conclusion, MUSEPLAN resolves the identified challenges to the integration of energy system modelling in municipal energy planning, while simplifying the modelling and scenario evaluation process.

•World market oil prices and international electricity prices are difficult to predict.•A historical analysis of traditional electricity price predictions leads to the conclusion that they are almost always wrong.•A new methodology that assumes fluctuating prices is introduced and cases of using it are described.•The cases illustrate that such a methodological approach influences not only the assessment but also the design of the scenario.

Sector coupling and system integration are key concepts in the energy transition from fossil fuels to fully decarbonized energy systems based on renewable energy. An intelligent use of sector coupling – such as that expressed in the concept of a smart energy system –accommodates for the identification of a more energy-efficient and affordable green transition. However, these benefits are often not fully identified in scenario modelling for the simple reason that not all energy systems analysis tools are equipped to do so. Here, we use the EnergyPLAN tool to replicate the EU Baseline and 1.5 TECH scenarios of the report “A Clean Planet for All”, which we then compare to a smart energy systems scenario for Europe. Due to its focus on sector coupling, we show how such a smart energy Europe scenario can be more energy efficient and affordable than the other scenarios.

The transport sector contributes to approximately one third of Danish greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and almost half of emissions from the energy sector. A unified Danish parliament agreed to reduce total emissions with 70% compared to 1990 levels by 2030. This paper estimates the potential for reducing the national transport sector GHG emissions in 2030 and proposes a pathway towards full decarbonisation in 2045 using a complex set of measures.

In most countries markets for electricity are divided into wholesale markets on which electricity is traded before the operation hour, and real-time balancing markets to handle the deviations from the wholesale trading. So far, wind power has been sold only on the wholesale market and has been known to increase the need for balancing. This article analyses whether wind turbines in the future should participate in the balancing markets and thereby play a proactive role. The analysis is based on a real-life test of proactive participation of a wind farm in West Denmark. It is found that the wind farm is able to play a proactive role regarding downward regulation and thereby increase profits.

EnergyPLAN is an energy system analysis tool created for the study and research in the design of future sustainable energy solutions with a special focus on energy systems with high shares of renewable energy sources. It has been under development since 1999 and has formed the basis for a substantial number of PhD theses and several hundreds of research papers. EnergyPLAN is designed to exploit the synergies enabled from including the whole energy system, as expressed in the smart energy system concept. Thus, with EnergyPLAN, the user can take a holistic approach focusing on the analysis of the cross-sectoral interaction. Traditionally disparate demand sectors, such as buildings, industry and transport, are linked with supply technologies through electricity, gas, district heating and cooling grids. In this way, EnergyPLAN enables the analysis of the conversion of renewable electricity into other energy carriers, such as heat, hydrogen, green gases and electrofuels, as well as the implementation of energy efficiency improvements and energy conservation. This article describes the overall structure of EnergyPLAN and the essential algorithms and computational structure.

The Danish district heating sector constitutes a large potential for power-to-heat technology utilisation and thereby for increasing energy system flexibility and integration of the heat- and electricity sectors. Though the potential is there, it is uncertain whether the current flat-rate electricity grid tariff structure best incentivises a flexible integration. This study investigates how a redesign of the current flat-rate electricity grid tariffs influences the business-economic incentive for flexible power-to-heat operation in a district heating area, and how tariff schemes can incentivise increased integration of local wind power. The simulation tool energyPRO is used to investigate the influence of three redesigned tariff schemes; a flat-rate tariff reduction, a fixed time-of-use tariff scheme and a dynamic tariff scheme. It is concluded that the redesigned tariff schemes show potential for improving business-economic viability of flexible power-to-heat operation and increased integration of variable renewable electricity. However, measures and careful planning must be undertaken in the design of future tariff schemes to ensure that the necessary income for grid operators remains in place. The study thus suggests a redesign of the current tariff scheme and provides policymakers with tangible results of how a district heating company is affected by changes to the structure of electricity grid tariffs.