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•Patients with MDS often experience severe symptom burden resulting with deteriorated health-related quality of life.•We identified key determinants of low health-related quality of life in MDS to support early clinical evaluation and shared decision making.

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The notion that an independent central bank reduces a country’s inflation is a controversial hypothesis. To date, it has not been possible to satisfactorily answer this question because the complex macroeconomic structure that gives rise to the data has not been adequately incorporated into statistical analyses. We develop a causal model that summarizes the economic process of inflation. Based on this causal model and recent data, we discuss and identify the assumptions under which the effect of central bank independence on inflation can be identified and estimated. Given these and alternative assumptions, we estimate this effect using modern doubly robust effect estimators, i.e., longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimators. The estimation procedure incorporates machine learning algorithms and is tailored to address the challenges associated with complex longitudinal macroeconomic data. We do not find strong support for the hypothesis that having an independent central bank for a long period of time necessarily lowers inflation. Simulation studies evaluate the sensitivity of the proposed methods in complex settings when certain assumptions are violated and highlight the importance of working with appropriate learning algorithms for estimation.

AbstractAimsPrior research, largely focused on US male veterans, indicates an increased risk of cardiovascular disease among individuals with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Data from other settings and populations are scarce. The objective of this study is to examine PTSD as a risk factor for incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in South Africa.MethodsWe analysed reimbursement claims (2011–2020) of a cohort of South African medical insurance scheme beneficiaries aged 18 years or older. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for associations between PTSD and MACEs using Cox proportional hazard models and calculated the effect of PTSD on MACEs using longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation.ResultsWe followed 1,009,113 beneficiaries over a median of 3.0 years (IQR 1.1–6.0). During follow-up, 12,662 (1.3%) persons were diagnosed with PTSD and 39,255 (3.9%) had a MACE. After adjustment for sex, HIV status, age, population group, substance use disorders, psychotic disorders, major depressive disorder, sleep disorders and the use of antipsychotic medication, PTSD was associated with a 16% increase in the risk of MACEs (aHR 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05–1.28). The risk ratio for the effect of PTSD on MACEs decreased from 1.59 (95% CI 1.49–1.68) after 1 year of follow-up to 1.14 (95% CI 1.11–1.16) after 8 years of follow-up.ConclusionOur study provides empirical support for an increased risk of MACEs in males and females with PTSD from a general population sample in South Africa. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring cardiovascular risk among individuals diagnosed with PTSD.

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Adverse events during hospital treatment are common and can lead to serious harm. This study reports the implementation of a comprehensive clinical risk management system in a university hospital and assesses the impact of clinical risk management on patient harms.

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Background: Mercury (Hg) exposure from artisanal gold mining has adverse effects on the neuromotor function in adults. However, few studies have examined this relationship in children.Objectives: To investigate the impact of Hg exposure on children’s neuromotor function.Methods: Cross-sectional data on Hg risk factors and demographics were collected from n = 288 children (response = 68.9%). Based on complete cases (CCs) (n = 130) and multiple imputations (n = 288), associations between fingernail Hg and four different neuromotor function components were calculated using multiple logistic regression adjusted for confounders.Results: Of the children, 11.1, 14.9, 63.9, and 10.4% had pathologic pure motor skills, adaptive fine motor skills, adaptive gross motor skills, and static balance, respectively. No significant association between fingernail Hg and any neuromotor component was found. However, Hg burning in the household was significantly associated with children’s pathologic pure motor skills (OR 3.07 95% CI 1.03–9.18).Conclusion: Elemental Hg exposure in the household might have adverse long-term effects on children’s pure motor skills.

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As access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) expands, increasing numbers of older patients will start treatment and need specialised long-term care. However, the effect of age in ART programmes in resource-constrained settings is poorly understood. The HIV epidemic is ageing rapidly and South Africa has one of the highest HIV population prevalences worldwide. We explored the effect of age on mortality of patients on ART in South Africa and whether this effect is mediated by baseline immunological status.

AbstractThis paper describes a targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) for the parameters of longitudinal static and dynamic marginal structural models. We consider a longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline covariates, time-dependent intervention nodes, intermediate time-dependent covariates, and a possibly time-dependent outcome. The intervention nodes at each time point can include a binary treatment as well as a right-censoring indicator. Given a class of dynamic or static interventions, a marginal structural model is used to model the mean of the intervention-specific counterfactual outcome as a function of the intervention, time point, and possibly a subset of baseline covariates. Because the true shape of this function is rarely known, the marginal structural model is used as a working model. The causal quantity of interest is defined as the projection of the true function onto this working model. Iterated conditional expectation double robust estimators for marginal structural model parameters were previously proposed by Robins (2000, 2002) and Bang and Robins (2005). Here we build on this work and present a pooled TMLE for the parameters of marginal structural working models. We compare this pooled estimator to a stratified TMLE (Schnitzer et al. 2014) that is based on estimating the intervention-specific mean separately for each intervention of interest. The performance of the pooled TMLE is compared to the performance of the stratified TMLE and the performance of inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimators using simulations. Concepts are illustrated using an example in which the aim is to estimate the causal effect of delayed switch following immunological failure of first line antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected patients. Data from the International Epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS, Southern Africa are analyzed to investigate this question using both TML and IPW estimators. Our results demonstrate practical advantages of the pooled TMLE over an IPW estimator for working marginal structural models for survival, as well as cases in which the pooled TMLE is superior to its stratified counterpart.

Initiation criteria and pediatric antiretroviral treatment regimens have changed over the past few years in South Africa. We reported worse early virological outcomes associated with the use of abacavir (ABC)-based regimens at 1 large site: here, we expand this analysis to multiple sites in the IeDEA-Southern Africa collaboration.

Background Poor adherence to antiretroviral therapy contributes to pharmacokinetic variability and is the major determinant of virological failure. However, measuring treatment adherence is difficult, especially in children. We investigated the relationship between plasma lopinavir concentrations, pretreatment characteristics and viral load >400 copies/ml.Methods A total of 237 HIV-infected children aged 4–42 months on lopinavir/ritonavir oral solution were studied prospectively and followed for up to 52 weeks. Viral load and lopinavir concentration were measured at clinic visits 12, 24, 36 and 52 weeks after starting treatment. Cox multiple failure events models were used to estimate the crude and adjusted effect of lopinavir concentrations on the hazard of viral load >400 copies/ml.Results The median (IQR) pretreatment CD4+T-lymphocyte percentage was 18.80% (12.70-25.35) and 53% of children had a pretreatment viral load >750,000 copies/ml. The median (IQR) weight-for-age and height-for-age z-scores were -2.17 (-3.35—2.84) and -3.34 (-4.57—3.41), respectively. Median (IQR) lopinavir concentrations were 8.00 mg/l (4.11-12.42) at median (IQR) 3.50 h (2.67-4.25) after the dose. The hazard of viral load >400 copies/ml was increased with lopinavir concentrations <1 mg/l versus =1 mg/l (adjusted hazard ratio 2.3 [95% CI 1.63, 3.26]) and lower height-for-age z-scores.Conclusions Low lopinavir concentrations (<1 mg/l) are associated with viraemia in children. This measure could be used as a proxy for adherence and to determine which children are more likely to fail.

An efavirenz-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen is preferred for children more than 3 years of age with tuberculosis. However, rifampin, a key component of antituberculosis therapy, induces CYP2B6. An increased dose of efavirenz is recommended in adults weighing more than 50kg who require rifampin, but there is scant information in children being treated for tuberculosis.

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