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IntroductionVenous thromboembolism (VTE) is a frequent complication of trauma associated with high mortality and morbidity. Clinicians lack appropriate tools for stratifying trauma patients for VTE, thus have yet to be able to predict when to intervene. We aimed to compare random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) predictive modelling for VTE using (1) clinical measures alone, (2) serum biomarkers alone and (3) clinical measures plus serum biomarkers.MethodsData were collected from 73 military casualties with at least one extremity wound and prospectively enrolled in an observational study between 2007 and 2012. Clinical and serum cytokine data were collected. Modelling was performed with RF and LR based on the presence or absence of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and/or pulmonary embolism (PE). For comparison, LR was also performed on the final variables from the RF model. Sensitivity/specificity and area under the curve (AUC) were reported.ResultsOf the 73 patients (median Injury Severity Score=16), nine (12.3%) developed VTE, four (5.5%) with DVT, four (5.5%) with PE, and one (1.4%) with both DVT and PE. In all sets of predictive models, RF outperformed LR. The best RF model generated with clinical and serum biomarkers included five variables (interleukin-15, monokine induced by gamma, vascular endothelial growth factor, total blood products at resuscitation and presence of soft tissue injury) and had an AUC of 0.946, sensitivity of 0.992 and specificity of 0.838.ConclusionsVTE may be predicted by clinical and molecular biomarkers in trauma patients. This will allow the development of clinical decision support tools which can help inform the management of high-risk patients for VTE.

Scientists have long sought to characterize the pathophysiologic basis of schizophrenia and develop biomarkers that could identify the illness. Extensive postmortem and in vivoneuroimaging research has described the early involvement of the hippocampus in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. In this context, we have developed a hypothesis that describes the evolution of schizophrenia—from the premorbid through the prodromal stages to syndromal psychosis—and posits dysregulation of glutamate neurotransmission beginning in the CA1 region of the hippocampus as inducing attenuated psychotic symptoms and initiating the transition to syndromal psychosis. As the illness progresses, this pathological process expands to other regions of the hippocampal circuit and projection fields in other anatomic areas including the frontal cortex, and induces an atrophic process in which hippocampal neuropil is reduced and interneurons are lost. This paper will describe the studies of our group and other investigators supporting this pathophysiological hypothesis, as well as its implications for early detection and therapeutic intervention.