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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks in acute care settings can have severe consequences for patients due to their underlying vulnerabilities, and can be costly due to additional patient bed-days and the need to replace isolating staff. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of clinical staff N95 respirators and admission screening testing of patients to reduce COVID-19 hospital-acquired infections. An agent-based model was calibrated to data on 178 outbreaks in acute care settings in Victoria, Australia between October 2021 and July 2023. Outbreaks were simulated under different combinations of staff masking (surgical, N95) and patient admission screening testing [none, rapid antigen test (RAT), polymerase chain reaction]. For each scenario, average diagnoses, COVID-19 deaths, quality-adjusted life years from discharged patients, and costs (masks, testing, patient COVID-19 bed-days, staff replacement costs while isolating) from acute COVID-19 were estimated over a 12-month period. Compared with no admission screening testing and staff surgical masks, all scenarios were cost saving with health gains. Staff N95 respirators + RAT admission screening of patients was the cheapest scenario, saving A$78.4M [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 44.4M–135.3M] and preventing 1543 (95% UI 1070–2146) deaths state-wide per annum. Both interventions were individually beneficial: staff N95 respirators saved A$54.7M and 854 deaths state-wide per annum, while RAT admission screening of patients saved A$57.6M and 1176 deaths state-wide per annum. In acute care settings, staff N95 respirators and admission screening testing of patients can reduce hospital-acquired COVID-19 and COVID-19 deaths, and are cost saving because of reduced patient bed-days and staff replacement needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to mid-2021, Australia's approach to COVID-19 was to eliminate community transmission. However, between August-November 2021, the state of Victoria, Australia, experienced an outbreak of the Delta variant that continued to grow despite extensive lockdowns and public health measures in place. While these public health restrictions were ultimately unable to stop community transmission, they likely had a major impact reducing transmission and adverse health outcomes relative to voluntary risk-mitigation only (e.g., in response to rising cases and deaths, some people may avoid crowded settings, hospitality, retail, social occasions, or indoor settings). This study aims to estimate the impact of the August-November 2021 enforced public health restrictions in Victoria, compared to voluntary risk-mitigation only. An agent-based model was calibrated to Victorian epidemiological, health and behavioural data from 1 August to 30 November 2021, as well as policies that were implemented over that period. Two counter-factual scenarios were run for the same period with (a) no restrictions in place; or (b) voluntary risk-mitigation only, based on behaviour measured over the December-January Omicron BA.1 epidemic wave when restrictions were not in place. Over August-November 2021, the baseline model scenario resulted in 97,000 (91,000−102,000) diagnoses, 9100 (8500−9700) hospital admissions, and 480 (430−530) deaths. Without any restrictions in place, there were 3,228,000 (3,200,000−3,253,000) diagnoses, 375,100 (370,200−380,900) hospital admissions, and 16,700 (16,000−17,500) deaths. With voluntary risk-mitigation equal to those observed during the Omicron BA.1 epidemic wave, there were 1,507,000 (1,469,000−1,549,000) diagnoses, 130,300 (124,500−136,000) hospital admissions, and 5500 (5000−6100) deaths. Public health restrictions implemented in Victoria over August-November 2021 are likely to have averted more than 120,000 hospitalizations and 5000 deaths relative to voluntary risk-mitigation only. During a COVID-19 epidemic wave voluntary behaviour change can reduce transmission substantially, but not to the same extent as enforced restrictions. • Restrictions in Victoria prevented 5000 deaths over 2021 Delta variant outbreak. • Agent-based modelling estimating impacts of public health restrictions, vaccination. • Delaying epidemic peak until higher vaccination coverage improved outcomes. • In absence of Omicron BA.1, resurgence of Delta variant possible but minimal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]