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Flooding greatly endangers public health and is an urgent concern as rapid population growth in flood-prone regions and more extreme weather events will increase the number of people at risk. However, an exhaustive analysis of mortality following floods has not been conducted. Here we used 35.6 million complete death records over 18 years (2001–2018) from the National Center for Health Statistics in the United States, highly resolved flood exposure data and a Bayesian conditional quasi-Poisson model to estimate the association of flooding with monthly county-level death rates for cancers, cardiovascular diseases, infectious and parasitic diseases, injuries, neuropsychiatric conditions and respiratory diseases up to 3 months after the flood. During the month of flooding, very severe heavy rain-related floods were associated with increased infectious disease (3.2%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 0.1%, 6.2%) and cardiovascular disease (2.1%; 95% CrI: 1.3%, 3.0%) death rates and tropical cyclone-related floods were associated with increased injury death rates (15.3%; 95% CrI: 12.4%, 18.1%). During the month of very severe tropical cyclone-related flooding, increases in injury death rate were higher for those ≥65 years old (24.9; 95% CrI: 20.0%, 29.8%) than for those aged <65 years (10.2%; 95% CrI: 6.6%, 13.8%) and for females (21.2%; 95% CrI: 16.3%, 26.1%) than for males (12.6%; 95% CrI: 9.1%,16.1%). Effective public health responses are critical now and with projected increased flood severity driven by climate change.

Although perceptions of wealth are shaped by people’s social environment andideological beliefs, few studies integrate these two perspectives. We address this oversight by examining the association between participants’ actual and estimated average neighborhood household income and whether political orientation moderates this relationship. Using a large, nationwide random sample of New Zealand adults (N= 14,853), our results reveal that both liberals and conservatives overestimated the wealth of their own neighborhoods—but these differences only emerged in the poorest and wealthiest neighborhoods. Specifically, in poor neighborhoods, conservatives were less accurate than liberals at estimating the average income of their neighborhood. In rich neighborhoods, liberals were less accurate than conservatives at this same task. The implications of these results for understanding (mis)perceptions of wealth on both sides of the political spectrum are discussed.

Conspiracy theories abound in social and political discourse, believed by millions of people around the world. In this article, we highlight when it is important to engage with people who believe in conspiracy theories and review recent literature highlighting how best to do so. We first summarise research on the potentially damaging consequences of conspiracy beliefs for individuals, including consequences related to psychopathology. We also focus on the consequences for groups, and societies, and the importance of understanding and addressing conspiracy beliefs. We then review recent literature on how to engage with people who believe in conspiracy theories, specifically with the goal to reduce susceptibility to conspiracy theories and other types of misinformation. We focus on interpersonal strategies to communicate with individuals who believe in conspiracy theories, and large-scale strategies designed to reduce conspiracy beliefs within broader communities.

The cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying the health impacts of climate change must be better understood in order to plan interventions that mitigate harm.

Phosphorus (P) availability frequently limits primary production in lakes, influences the physiology of phytoplankton, shapes community structure, and can stimulate or constrain the formation of cyanobacterial blooms. Given the importance of P, numerous methods are available to assess P stress in phytoplankton communities. Marine phytoplankton are known to substitute sulfolipids for phospholipids in response to P limitation. We asked whether sulfolipid substitution might serve as an additional indicator of P stress in freshwater phytoplankton communities. The question was addressed using cultures of Microcystis aeruginosa, Lake Erie microcosms, and surveys of lipid profiles in Lake Erie during a Microcystisspp. bloom. Peak area response ratios of the intact polar lipids sulfoquinovosyldiacylglycerol (SQDG) to phosphatidylglycerol (PG) were used as the metric of lipid substitution. In cultures of M. aeruginosaNIES‐843, the SQDG : PG ratio increased from ~ 0.9 to ~ 3.3 with decreasing P concentration. In P‐limited communities, the SQDG : PG ratio increased from ~ 6 to ~ 11 after 48 h in microcosm controls, while P amendments reduced the ratio to ~ 3. In Lake Erie surveys, the SQDG : PG ratio ranged from ~ 0.4 to ~ 7.4 and was negatively correlated (Pearson r= −0.62) with total dissolved P. The SQDG : PG ratio was not correlated with concentrations of chlorophyll a, soluble reactive P, or N : P molar ratios. These results demonstrated that M. aeruginosaand Microcystis‐dominated communities remodel lipid profiles in response to P scarcity, providing a potential short‐term, time‐integrated biomarker of nutrient history and P stress in fresh waters.

Day-to-day changes in CO2emissions from human activities, in particular fossil-fuel combustion and cement production, reflect a complex balance of influences from seasonality, working days, weather and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we provide a daily CO2emissions dataset for the whole year of 2020, calculated from inventory and near-real-time activity data. We find a global reduction of 6.3% (2,232 MtCO2) in CO2emissions compared with 2019. The drop in daily emissions during the first part of the year resulted from reduced global economic activity due to the pandemic lockdowns, including a large decrease in emissions from the transportation sector. However, daily CO2emissions gradually recovered towards 2019 levels from late April with the partial reopening of economic activity. Subsequent waves of lockdowns in late 2020 continued to cause smaller CO2reductions, primarily in western countries. The extraordinary fall in emissions during 2020 is similar in magnitude to the sustained annual emissions reductions necessary to limit global warming at 1.5 °C. This underscores the magnitude and speed at which the energy transition needs to advance.

In the framework of the RECCAP2 initiative, we present the greenhouse gas (GHG) and carbon (C) budget of Europe. For the decade of the 2010s, we present a bottom‐up (BU) estimate of GHG net‐emissions of 3.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1(using a global warming potential on a 100 years horizon), which are largely dominated by fossil fuel emissions. In this decade, terrestrial ecosystems acted as a net GHG sink of 0.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1, dominated by a CO2sink that was partially counterbalanced by net emissions of CH4and N2O. For CH4and N2O, we find good agreement between BU and top‐down (TD) estimates from atmospheric inversions. However, our BU land CO2sink is significantly higher than the TD estimates. We further show that decadal averages of GHG net‐emissions have declined by 1.2 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1since the 1990s, mainly due to a reduction in fossil fuel emissions. In addition, based on both data driven BU and TD estimates, we also find that the land CO2sink has weakened over the past two decades. A large part of the European CO2and C sinks is located in Northern Europe. At the same time, we find a decreasing trend in sink strength in Scandinavia, which can be attributed to an increase in forest management intensity. These are partly offset by increasing CO2sinks in parts of Eastern Europe and Northern Spain, attributed in part to land use change. Extensive regions of high CH4and N2O emissions are mainly attributed to agricultural activities and are found in Belgium, the Netherlands and the southern UK. We further analyzed interannual variability in the GHG budgets. The drought year of 2003 shows the highest net‐emissions of CO2and of all GHGs combined. We have synthesized the European budgets of carbon and the greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. This synthesis includes estimates of direct emissions from fossil fuel burning, industrial production, waste management and agriculture, as well as of sources and sinks in the terrestrial biosphere. Summing up the sources and sinks of the three GHGs, we estimate for the decade of the 2010s an average annual net‐emission of 3.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalents. These net‐emissions are dominated by carbon dioxide from fossil fuel emissions (4.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide). In contrast, the terrestrial biosphere acts as a net sink of carbon dioxide, the effect of which is only partly counterbalanced by net emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. The net‐effect of the terrestrial biosphere's GHG budget is a sink of 0.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per year. Over the last three decades, European GHG emissions have declined by 1.2 billion tons carbon dioxide equivalents per year, mainly due to reductions in fossil fuel emissions. However, the sink capacity of the terrestrial biosphere has diminished since the 2000s. We provide a bottom‐up estimate of CO2, CH4, N2O emissions of 3.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1over Europe, 2010–2019Terrestrial ecosystems acted as a greenhouse gas net sink of 0.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1, dominated by CO2sinkNet‐greenhouse gas emissions decreased by ∼1/4 since the 1990s, but land carbon sink is weakening since the 2000s We provide a bottom‐up estimate of CO2, CH4, N2O emissions of 3.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1over Europe, 2010–2019 Terrestrial ecosystems acted as a greenhouse gas net sink of 0.9 Pg CO2‐eq. yr−1, dominated by CO2sink Net‐greenhouse gas emissions decreased by ∼1/4 since the 1990s, but land carbon sink is weakening since the 2000s

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

TP53mutations are implicated in the progression of mucinous borderline tumors (MBOT) to mucinous ovarian carcinomas (MOC). Optimized immunohistochemistry (IHC) for TP53 has been established as a proxy for the TP53mutation status in other ovarian tumor types. We aimed to confirm the ability of TP53 IHC to predict TP53mutation status in ovarian mucinous tumors and to evaluate the association of TP53mutation status with survival among patients with MBOT and MOC. Tumor tissue from an initial cohort of 113 women with MBOT/MOC was stained with optimized IHC for TP53 using tissue microarrays (75.2%) or full sections (24.8%) and interpreted using established criteria as normal or abnormal (overexpression, complete absence, or cytoplasmic). Cases were considered concordant if abnormal IHC staining predicted deleterious TP53mutations. Discordant tissue microarray cases were re-evaluated on full sections and interpretational criteria were refined. The initial cohort was expanded to a total of 165 MBOT and 424 MOC for the examination of the association of survival with TP53mutation status, assessed either by TP53 IHC and/or sequencing. Initially, 82/113 (72.6%) cases were concordant using the established criteria. Refined criteria for overexpression to account for intratumoral heterogeneity and terminal differentiation improved concordance to 93.8% (106/113). In the expanded cohort, 19.4% (32/165) of MBOT showed evidence for TP53mutation and this was associated with a higher risk of recurrence, disease-specific death, and all-cause mortality (overall survival: HR = 4.6, 95% CI 1.5–14.3, p= 0.0087). Within MOC, 61.1% (259/424) harbored a TP53mutation, but this was not associated with survival (overall survival, p= 0.77). TP53 IHC is an accurate proxy for TP53mutation status with refined interpretation criteria accounting for intratumoral heterogeneity and terminal differentiation in ovarian mucinous tumors. TP53mutation status is an important biomarker to identify MBOT with a higher risk of mortality.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100–231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30–44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31–45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system.

•Conspiracy beliefs have important political correlates and consequences, which can undermine trust and participation in democratic processes.•They are not the preserve of the ideological left or right, and are more common at ideological extremes, though may be strongest at the extreme right.•There are reliable individual differences in a generalized predisposition to believe in conspiracy theories.•This predisposition has been characterized as a conspiracy mindset, and more specifically a generalized political attitude.•Problems with this characterization and alternative ways of understanding the ideological significance of conspiracy theories are discussed

Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO2emissions during forced confinements. Daily global CO2emissions decreased by –17% (–11 to –25% for ±1σ) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by –26% on average. The impact on 2020 annual emissions depends on the duration of the confinement, with a low estimate of –4% (–2 to –7%) if prepandemic conditions return by mid-June, and a high estimate of –7% (–3 to –13%) if some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of 2020. Government actions and economic incentives postcrisis will likely influence the global CO2emissions path for decades.

Temperatures that deviate from the long-term local norm affect human health, and are projected to become more frequent as the global climate changes1. There are limited data on how such anomalies affect deaths from injuries. In the present study, we used data on mortality and temperature over 38?years (1980–2017) in the contiguous USA and formulated a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to quantify how anomalous temperatures, defined as deviations of monthly temperature from the local average monthly temperature over the entire analysis period, affect deaths from unintentional (transport, falls and drownings) and intentional (assault and suicide) injuries, by age group and sex. We found that a 1.5?°C anomalously warm year, as envisioned under the Paris Climate Agreement2, would be associated with an estimated 1,601 (95% credible interval 1,430–1,776) additional injury deaths. Of these additional deaths, 84% would occur in males, mostly in adolescence to middle age. These would comprise increases in deaths from drownings, transport, assault and suicide, offset partly by a decline in deaths from falls in older ages. The findings demonstrate the need for targeted interventions against injuries during periods of anomalously warm temperatures, especially as these episodes are likely to increase with global climate change.

The rediscovery of diatom blooms embedded within and beneath the Lake Erie ice cover (2007–2012) ignited interest in psychrophilic adaptations and winter limnology. Subsequent studies determined the vital role ice plays in winter diatom ecophysiology as diatoms partition to the underside of ice, thereby fixing their location within the photic zone. Yet, climate change has led to widespread ice decline across the Great Lakes, with Lake Erie presenting a nearly “ice-free” state in several recent winters. It has been hypothesized that the resultant turbid, isothermal water column induces light limitation amongst winter diatoms and thus serves as a competitive disadvantage. To investigate this hypothesis, we conducted a physiochemical and metatranscriptomic survey that spanned spatial, temporal, and climatic gradients of the winter Lake Erie water column (2019–2020). Our results suggest that ice-free conditions decreased planktonic diatom bloom magnitude and altered diatom community composition. Diatoms increased their expression of various photosynthetic genes and iron transporters, which suggests that the diatoms are attempting to increase their quantity of photosystems and light-harvesting components (a well-defined indicator of light limitation). We identified two gene families which serve to increase diatom fitness in the turbid ice-free water column: proton-pumping rhodopsins (a potential second means of light-driven energy acquisition) and fasciclins (a means to “raft” together to increase buoyancy and co-locate to the surface to optimize light acquisition). With large-scale climatic changes already underway, our observations provide insight into how diatoms respond to the dynamic ice conditions of today and shed light on how they will fare in a climatically altered tomorrow.

Five years after the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement, growth in global CO2emissions has begun to falter. The pervasive disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic have radically altered the trajectory of global CO2emissions. Contradictory effects of the post-COVID-19 investments in fossil fuel-based infrastructure and the recent strengthening of climate targets must be addressed with new policy choices to sustain a decline in global emissions in the post-COVID-19 era.

Chinese provinces ultimately implement China’s national climate policies. In the 2000s, there were unbalanced emission transfers (emissions produced in one region but consumed in other regions) between China’s well- and less-developed regions, mainly related to demand in the well-developed eastern provinces. In the past decade, the plateau in China’s exported emissions and changes in its industrial structure suggest that the features of the provincial emission transfers could have changed. We construct a Chinese provincial multiyear, multisector model (multi-regional input–output model) to investigate the structural changes in China’s provincial emission transfers from 2002 to 2012. We find that from 2007 to 2012, the international-export-associated emission transfers driven by eastern provinces decreased by 17% after the 262% increase in 2002–07, while investment dominated 99% of the increase in emission transfers. At the sector level, emissions caused by construction in the east and west, and technology-intensive manufacturing in the center that largely related to investment were the major components of the increasing emission transfers in 2007–12, accounting for 23%, 21%, and 10% of the increase, respectively. Our findings indicate that attention should be given to committed emissions from investment and the interaction between non-uniform provincial climate policies and economic relationships between provinces.

Freshwater cyanobacterial blooms are regularly formed by Microcystisspp., which are well-known producers of the hepatotoxin microcystin. The environmental factors that regulate microcystin synthesis remain unclear. We used reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR), metabolomics, and toxin profiling (both by LC-MS) to measure the response of Microcystis aeruginosaNIES-843 to nitrogen (N) concentration, N chemistry (nitrate versus urea), and a range of seasonally relevant temperatures. Growth rates at lower temperatures were slower but resulted in increased cellular microcystin content (quota), and at these lower temperatures, N concentration had no effect on toxin production. In contrast, at warmer temperatures, reduction in N concentration increased toxin production, especially when urea was supplied as the nitrogen source. Our culture results demonstrate how temperature may lead to physiological responses ranging from slow growing yet very toxic cells at cool temperatures, to faster growing but less-toxic cells at warmer temperatures. This response represents a key interaction in bloom dynamics. Capturing this phenomenon as a temperature-driven toxin phenotype incorporated into models might improve the ability to predict microcystin biosynthesis during cyanobacterial blooms.

To evaluate myeloid differentiation primary response gene 88 (MyD88) and Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) expression in relation to clinical features of epithelial ovarian cancer, histologic subtypes, and overall survival.

AbstractIn recent years, researchers have begun to study the social consequences of conspiracy beliefs. However, little research has investigated the impact of conspiracy beliefs on interpersonal relationships. In this review, we draw attention to this issue by summarizing available empirical evidence and proposing potential social-psychological mechanisms to explain whether and why conspiracy theories affect interpersonal relationships. We firstly discuss that the attitude change that often accompanies the internalization of conspiracy beliefs might distance people’s opinions and, consequently, erode their relationships. Furthermore, we argue that the stigmatizing value of conspiracy theories can negatively affect the evaluation of conspiracy believers and discourage others from getting close to them. Finally, we consider that the misperception of social norms associated with the acceptance of certain conspiracy narratives can lead conspiracy believers to engage in non-normative behavior. Others are likely to perceive such behavior negatively, resulting in diminished interpersonal interaction. We highlight the need for further research to address these issues, as well as the potential factors that may prevent relationships being eroded by conspiracy beliefs.

Current emission pledges to the Paris Agreement appear insufficient to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet, details are missing on how to track progress towards the ‘Paris goal’, inform the five-yearly ‘global stocktake’, and increase the ambition of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). We develop a nested structure of key indicators to track progress through time. Global emissions track aggregated progress, country-level decompositions track emerging trends that link directly to NDCs, and technology diffusion indicates future reductions. We find the recent slowdown in global emissions growth is due to reduced growth in coal use since 2011, primarily in China and secondarily in the United States. The slowdown is projected to continue in 2016, with global CO2emissions from fossil fuels and industry similar to the 2015 level of 36 GtCO2. Explosive and policy-driven growth in wind and solar has contributed to the global emissions slowdown, but has been less important than economic factors and energy efficiency. We show that many key indicators are currently broadly consistent with emission scenarios that keep temperatures below 2 °C, but the continued lack of large-scale carbon capture and storage threatens 2030 targets and the longer-term Paris ambition of net-zero emissions.

Chinese coal consumption dropped 2.9% in 2014 according to preliminary official statistics released in 2015. This was hailed as historic after China’s meteoric growth in the 2000s. The International Energy Agency used it to estimate ∼1.5% reduction in Chinese fossil CO2emissions for 2014, and an unprecedented 0.2% reduction in global emissions. Similar preliminary coal consumption statistics are announced every year, and will be watched closely after China’s recent slowdown in emissions growth and pledge to peak emissions in 2030 or earlier. However, Chinese energy statistics are frequently revised and often contain large anomalies, implying high uncertainty. For example, BP used different Chinese data to estimate a 0.9% increase in 2014 CO2emissions. Here, we analyse these preliminary announcements, with an approach that can be used to assess the robustness of similar future announcements. We show that the preliminary 2.9% reduction in coal consumption is inappropriate for estimating CO2emissions, that coal-derived energy consumption stayed flat but is likely to have decreased in 2015, and that Chinese fossil CO2emissions probably increased ∼0.8% in 2014. We also analyse recent revisions of official energy statistics, and find that they imply 925 MtCO2(11.2%) higher emissions for 2013, and 7.6 GtCO2(9.2%) higher total emissions for 2000–2013.

There is mounting anecdotal evidence that some individuals fall into conspiracy “rabbit holes” causing harms ranging from social isolation to violence. We propose a hypothetical Rabbit Hole Syndromein which some individuals' subscription to conspiracy beliefs is initially inadvertent, accelerates recursively, then becomes difficult to escape. This proposal is distinguished by a person-centered and dynamic perspective on conspiracy beliefs. It aims to provide a theoretical foundation for research that (a) illuminates the rabbit hole phenomenon, (b) is pluralistic, spanning diverse subdisciplines (e.g., social and clinical psychology), and methods (e.g., qualitative, longitudinal, and case studies), and (c) informs theory and practice by uncovering discontinuities between committed believers and other populations in the causes, consequences, and “remedies” of conspiracy beliefs.

Uncertainty surrounds the public understanding of climate change and provides fertile ground for conspiracy theories. Typically, such conspiracy theories assert that climate scientists and politicians are distorting or hijacking the science to suit their own purposes. Climate change conspiracy theories resemble other conspiracy theories in some respects, but in others they appear to be quite different. For example, climate change conspiracy theories appear to be motivated by the desire to deny or minimize an unwelcome and threatening conclusion. They also appear to be more contentious than other types of conspiracy theories. Perhaps to an unparalleled extent, people on both sides of the issue champion climate change conspiracy theories. Finally, more than other conspiracy theories, those concerning climate change appear to be more politically loaded, dividing opinion across the left-right continuum. Some empirical evidence suggests that climate change conspiracy theories may be harmful, steering people away from environmentally friendly initiatives. They therefore present a significant challenge for governments and environmental organizations that are attempting to convince people to take action against global warming.

The Paris Agreement has increased the incentive to verify reported anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions with independent Earth system observations. Reliable verification requires a step change in our understanding of carbon cycle variability.

Uncertainty surrounds the public understanding of climate change and provides fertile ground for conspiracy theories. Typically, such conspiracy theories assert that climate scientists and politicians are distorting or hijacking the science to suit their own purposes. Climate change conspiracy theories resemble other conspiracy theories in some respects, but in others they appear to be quite different. For example, climate change conspiracy theories appear to be motivated by the desire to deny or minimize an unwelcome and threatening conclusion. They also appear to be more contentious than other types of conspiracy theories. Perhaps to an unparalleled extent, people on both sides of the issue champion climate change conspiracy theories. Finally, more than other conspiracy theories, those concerning climate change appear to be more politically loaded, dividing opinion across the left-right continuum. Some empirical evidence suggests that climate change conspiracy theories may be harmful, steering people away from environmentally friendly initiatives. They therefore present a significant challenge for governments and environmental organizations that are attempting to convince people to take action against global warming.

Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 °C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions.

Conspiracy theories can form a monological belief system: A self-sustaining worldview comprised of a network of mutually supportive beliefs. The present research shows that even mutually incompatible conspiracy theories are positively correlated in endorsement. In Study 1 (n= 137), the more participants believed that Princess Diana faked her own death, the more they believed that she was murdered. In Study 2 (n= 102), the more participants believed that Osama Bin Laden was already dead when U.S. special forces raided his compound in Pakistan, the more they believed he is still alive. Hierarchical regression models showed that mutually incompatible conspiracy theories are positively associated because both are associated with the view that the authorities are engaged in a cover-up (Study 2). The monological nature of conspiracy belief appears to be driven not by conspiracy theories directly supporting one another but by broader beliefs supporting conspiracy theories in general.

Before vaccines for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) became available, a set of infection-prevention behaviors constituted the primary means to mitigate the virus spread. Our study aimed to identify important predictors of this set of behaviors. Whereas social and health psychological theories suggest a limited set of predictors, machine-learning analyses can identify correlates from a larger pool of candidate predictors. We used random forests to rank 115 candidate correlates of infection-prevention behavior in 56,072 participants across 28 countries, administered in March to May 2020. The machine-learning model predicted 52% of the variance in infection-prevention behavior in a separate test sample—exceeding the performance of psychological models of health behavior. Results indicated the two most important predictors related to individual-level injunctive norms. Illustrating how data-driven methods can complement theory, some of the most important predictors were not derived from theories of health behavior—and some theoretically derived predictors were relatively unimportant.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic changed many social, economic, environmental, and healthcare determinants of health in New York City (NYC) and worldwide. COVID-19 potentially heightened the risk of heat-related health impacts in NYC, particularly on the most vulnerable communities, who often lack equitable access to adequate cooling mechanisms such as air conditioning (AC) and good quality green space. Here, we review some of the policies and tools which have been developed to reduce vulnerability to heat in NYC. We then present results from an online pilot survey of members of the environmental justice organization WE ACT for Environmental Justice (WE ACT) between July 11 and August 8, 2020, which asked questions to evaluate how those in Northern Manhattan coped with elevated summer heat in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also make some policy recommendations based on our initial findings. Results of our pilot survey suggest that people stayed indoors more due to COVID-19 and relied more on AC units to stay cool. Survey responses also indicated that some avoided visiting green spaces due to concerns around overcrowding and did not regularly frequent them due to the distance from their homes. The responses also demonstrate a potential racial disparity in AC access; AC ownership and access was highest amongst white and lowest amongst Latino/a/x and Black respondents. The impacts of COVID-19 have highlighted the need to accelerate efforts to improve preparedness for extreme heat like the City of New York’s AC and cooling center programs, heat ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) retrofitting, equitable green space expansion, and stronger environmental justice community networks and feedback mechanisms to hear from affected residents. Conducting a survey of this kind annually may provide an additional effective component of evaluating cooling initiatives in NYC.

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01254-4.

Efforts to understand and remedy the rejection of science are impeded by lack of insight into how it varies in degree and in kind around the world. The current work investigates science skepticism in 24 countries (N= 5,973). Results show that while some countries stand out as generally high or low in skepticism, predictors of science skepticism are relatively similar across countries. One notable effect was consistent across countries though stronger in Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic (WEIRD) nations: General faith in science was predicted by spirituality, suggesting that it, more than religiosity, may be the ‘enemy’ of science acceptance. Climate change skepticism was mainly associated with political conservatism especially in North America. Other findings were observed across WEIRD and non-WEIRD nations: Vaccine skepticism was associated with spirituality and scientific literacy, genetic modification skepticism with scientific literacy, and evolution skepticism with religious orthodoxy. Levelsof science skepticism are heterogeneous across countries, but predictorsof science skepticism are heterogeneous across domains.