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This theoretical paper presents a real options valuation method (SCV) based on Wiśniewski's concept, double Monte Carlo simulation (2MC). In this methodology, option valuation involves determining the difference between the average value of a project with an option and the average value of a project without option and is calculated using financial simulation models characterizing these investments. Calculated values of project with option and without depends on the input parameters (deterministic or/and stochastic), that are already used by managers. The real options valuation methodology is presented using a numerical example of a flexible investment. The analysis demonstrates the usefulness of the SCV method, especially in the early stages of investment implementation, for complex and multi-stage projects, and in the presence of multiple sources of risk, that can be easily modeled using market data. An additional conclusion from the paper is the difference between the values ​​of real options, determined using the SCV method, and the value of decision flexibility (2MC method), as well as their economic significance and their application in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Which business idea or project would be successful? Is it worth investing in it and to what extent? What is the risk level and how can it be mitigated to achieve success? All these questions are relevant to both entrepreneurs and investors, especially when it comes to high-risk start-ups. The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for intelligent effectiveness and risk assessment (IERA) of investments in high-risk start-ups, with a focus on space industries. Such an assessment is challenging for several reasons, including the lack of unified statistics on space industries, evaluation of benefits other than economic ones, long-term development challenges, etc. The developed IERA methodology integrates a combination of various known methods used in the space industries for both investment appraisal and risk assessment. The application of various AI-based tools for methodology criteria, weights, and scores contributes to obtaining realistic values and ensures the success of the analysis results, thereby benefiting the project itself. Thus, the applied IERA methodology can be implemented in real-time, based on a broad knowledge base, with high accuracy, and requiring significantly fewer financial resources. The main advantage of the developed methodology is the assurance it provides to both entrepreneurs and investors, offering them sufficient certainty and confidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With regards to the strategic role of transport in a country's economic development and the large investments that are required, a thorough economic appraisal of these investments is of high importance. Therefore, it is appropriate to analyze and possibly modify existing methods for evaluating the economic efficiency of road construction at the scientific level, with the support of the real practice experience. Our research concentrates on evaluation of current methods of economic appraisal, their consecutive improvement and on incorporation of the LCCA agenda into the investment decision process. Consequently, it focuses on the possibilities to improve the effectivity of both, an investment decision process and a realization phase through the proposal of very concrete measures based on results of our research and on experience of real practice construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many towns and cities in countries of the developing world contain a historic centre comprising streets, buildings and traditional activities that have resisted the forces of modernisation. However, the inexorable pressures of population growth and urban expansion often pose a serious threat to these heritage assets which are seen as standing in the way of progress. This paper considers the application of the principles and methods of heritage economics to the evaluation of investment in the conservation of urban heritage in towns and cities in developing countries. The characteristics of cultural heritage in this environment are considered and the choices facing urban planners are discussed. The paper outlines the methodology of investment appraisal of projects aimed at adaptive re-use of urban heritage assets, with specific reference to the scarcity of appropriate data in the typical developing country situation. To illustrate the application of ex post investment appraisal methods to urban heritage conservation projects in Third World cities, two examples from studies in Macedonia and Jordan are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present and critically examine the links between the role of formal appraisal procedures, appraisal teams, and project champions and their influence in the selection of information communication technology projects in the Czech Republic and the UK. Our research is empirical and uses comparative analysis and exploratory descriptive analysis to interpret the findings. We draw on the economic, management and consensus-performance literature, and optimism bias theory to support our research. Our findings show significant differences in the practices between the Czech Republic and the UK, which we believe are the result of cultural and economic diversities. There is a high level of involvement of a project champion in the selection of projects with concern being expressed over their excessive/biased influence in the decision-making process. An important finding from our research reveals that adopting clearly defined appraisal/selection procedures may reduce this biased influence. As project failure can result from the influence of a project champion at the project selection stage, it is important to fill this perceived gap in the literature. The research is the only empirical study of its kind conducted simultaneously in the Czech Republic and the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk management is an important component of project management. Nevertheless, such process begins with risk assessment and evaluation. In this research project, a detailed analysis of the methodologies used to treat risks in investment projects adopted by the Banco da Amazonia S.A. was made. Investment projects submitted to the FNO (Constitutional Fund for Financing the North) during 2011 and 2012 were considered for that purpose. It was found that the evaluators of this credit institution use multiple indicators for risk assessment which assume a central role in terms of decision-making and contribute for the approval or the rejection of the submitted projects; namely, the proven ability to pay, the financial records of project promotors, several financial restrictions, level of equity, level of financial indebtedness, evidence of the existence of a consumer market, the proven experience of the partners/owners in the business, environmental aspects, etc. Furthermore, the bank has technological systems to support the risk assessment process, an internal communication system and a unique system for the management of operational risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to present a method and a tool based on cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) for assessing energy efficiency improvements in buildings. The method is based on comparing costs of an energy efficiency improvement with its effects in terms of reduced energy use.Ashort review of the current practices in evaluating the economic efficiency and feasibility of energy efficiency measures is presented.A case example is presented with a calculationby using a CEA calculation method adapted for energy efficiency improvements in buildings.It is here concluded that the systematic appraisal of cost-effectiveness of energy efficiency investments would allow most economical projects to be implemented first, leading to greater overall economic efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: PPP contracts most often have durations of between 20 and 35 years, but in some cases even longer. The main reason for this is the wish of the Public side to minimize its financial contribution, by including in the contract many years of revenue generation by the project to help cover the investment contribution of the private partner. Implicit however is the need to fully amortize the initial investment, which in many countries is even included in the relevant legislation. PPP contracts are normally framed around the delivery of a range of services during the lifetime of the contract, those services requiring the initial construction or recovery of an expensive infrastructure. The specification of the financial clauses of the contract requires the estimation of demand for those services over the period of the contract and this is usually taken as the major incidence of uncertainty in the contract. Indeed, experience shows that demand forecasts often fail substantially, in many cases by more than 20%, mostly by excess, as State side project promoters (and the bidding private partners) tend to be excessively optimistic about the development of such demand. But when we consider the nature of these contracts we should recognize the existence of at least two other very important types of uncertainty: first, the socially desirable scope and specification of the services to be offered as technology and social preferences evolve; and second, the policy guidelines relative to the total quantity and the social distribution of those services, as that quantity may be causing congestion in other parts of the system, or it may become important to (positively or negatively) discriminate some user segments. In both cases, it is almost impossible to foresee at the time of writing the initial contract if, when and in what direction such types of socially beneficial changes in the provision of the services would intervene, but this rigidness may bear a great loss of social welfare in relation to a more adjustable framework. This criticism affects not only PPPs but all kinds of concession contracts with long duration, so it is not the “partnership” element that must be questioned but rather the duration of the contract. An alternative way is relatively straightforward: abandon the assumption that these contracts must provide full amortization of the infrastructure, which allows adoption of contracts with a shorter life, and the use of multiple such contracts over the lifecycle of the infrastructure. The first generation contract would still have to face the full cost of the construction, but the private partner would receive the unamortized part at the end of that contract, to be paid by the State, directly from the public budget if no more private participation is wanted, or indirectly through the acquisition fee for the contract to be paid by the partner to the second life segment. But, crucially, the State recovers the right to re-specify the terms of the service to be provided without the need for any indemnity, and also the uncertainty associated with the evolution of demand in that period will be much smaller, as this will be my then a mature system in operation. This may seem to increase the transaction costs for the State as more contracts (although of a similar type, especially from the second onwards) may have to be negotiated and signed. But if we take into consideration the difficulties of the frequently needed renegotiations of long duration contracts and the conditions of asymmetry of information in which the State normally finds itself in such cases, we will conclude that, besides avoiding the loss of welfare due to the poor fit of the contract after 20 years or so, this solution after all may also reduce the transaction costs associated with negotiations over the duration of the traditional contracts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article presents the research based on economic feasibility evaluation of model KAMIS developed for paving of gravel roads. The model is built for Lithuanian climatic, economic and technological conditions, but it could be adopted in other regions, especially regions with ‘freezing and thawing climates’. After 8 years of model application for appraisal of Lithuanian Gravel Roads Paving Programme it was estimated that consequences after the presented Lithuanian Gravel Roads Conditions Research and KAMIS model application have accumulated 1,09 billion LTL (316 million €) gain for Lithuanian society. Conclusions and findings of the Analysis of Lithuanian Gravel Roads Paving Programme implementation from 1998 to 2005 are presented at the end of the article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a cost–benefit analysis approach devised to conduct project evaluation in conditions of limited analyst time, research budget and data availability. The emphasis is on discarding economically viable from unviable projects rather than on arriving at a precise estimate of project return. The paper starts by setting out the theoretical background for identifying and measuring project benefits. It then presents a practical approach to measure such benefits in projects involving the expansion of passenger capacity and, subsequently, those aimed at expanding aircraft capacity. Projects in the freight market and the estimation of airport costs are treated in turn. A practical application is included as an appendix. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]