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This paper explores some consequences of rapid changes in contraceptive use, fertility and mortality in Indonesia. An examination of demographic trends over four decades reveals a behavioural disjuncture, with implications for diagnoses of social problems arising from changing family structures, and for policy prescriptions to overcome these problems. One important issue not revealed by statistics representing average behaviour is the way in which lower fertility implies a change in the distribution of women between mothers and the childless, and between mothers with very small numbers of children and those who more than reproduce themselves. To the degree that these distributions reflect the emergence of new social roles that are a function of reproductive status, any efforts to prevent fertility from going to the very low levels typical of Europe and many countries of East Asia imply the need to address the core nature of new roles adopted by Indonesian women. Looking to the future of childbearing in Indonesia, the emergence of low fertility seems to be bringing the nation to a crossroads: will increasing numbers of women adopt no-fertility roles that preclude childbearing; or will patterns of near-universal marriage be maintained, with the bulk of women becoming mothers of very small numbers of children? Convincing evidence to answer these questions is likely to emerge only in the next decade, but this paper presents some speculations that suggest the answers may be very surprising to the current generation of policy-makers.

The large islands and archipelagos fanning out from the Southeast corner of Asia can be seen to constitute a region wherein socio-economic, cultural and political differences provide ample bases for disputation. In seeking areas of potential common ground for cooperation this paper examines the population problems faced by the nations of the region. Analysis is based on recently released population projections from the United Nations Population Division. There are great differences among the countries, to be sure: differences in scale, in relative economic dependency burdens, and particularly in current trends in fertility and mortality. Even these can be seen as fruitful topics for collaboration, particularly if attention is focused on the state or provincial rather than national level. There are nonetheless important areas of commonality: all nations are facing the problem of raising levels of schooling in line with parents’ aspirations and economic needs, all face problems of caring for a rising proportion of aged, and all have difficulties with the monitoring and control of international migration. Also, since minority groups in many countries are majority polities in neighbouring states, there is potential for establishing international dialogues aimed at relieving internal tensions. Australia, as the largest donor in the region, has a unique opportunity to take the lead in promoting constructive contacts in Austronesia to address these and other population policy issues.