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[Display omitted] • Quantitative analysis of the impacts of political risk on gold prices. • Gold is a weak hedge against political risk with a time lag effect. • The gold market fluctuations have been more influenced by financial speculation. • The external conflicts contribute most to the gold market fluctuations. As the preferred investment tool of global investors, the price movements of gold are increasingly attracting attention. This study explores the factors influencing the gold market with particular attention to the effects of political risk. Our results indicate that gold is a weak hedge against political risk, and this weak hedge has time-lag effects. Compared with macroeconomic factors, financial speculation has greater explanatory power for changes in gold returns as international speculative forces have become increasingly active. Furthermore, the exchange rate and interest rate contribute less to gold returns and are negatively correlated with gold returns. Regarding the effects of the subcomponents of political risk, external conflicts have the strongest explanatory power on gold market fluctuations. These findings derive important recommendations for both investors and risk managers in the gold market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] This study investigates the nonlinear dynamic correlations between geopolitical risk (GPR) and oil prices using nonlinear Granger causality and DCC-MVGARCH methods based on high-frequency data. The relationship between GPR and oil prices is found to have a complex nonlinear relationship rather than a simple linear one. Further, a bidirectional nonlinear Granger causality is found to consistently exist between GPR and oil volatility across different components of realized volatility. In terms of returns, GPR has relatively weak unidirectional nonlinear Granger causation with oil returns. The dynamic correlation analysis shows that GPR mainly affects oil volatility rather than returns. Moreover, GPR mainly affects oil volatility through the jump component of the oil market after the financial crisis, and there is a strong positive correlation between GPR and volatility jumps. Our findings innovatively suggest that GPR can potentially be utilized to improve models of volatility jumps and provide reference for investors and price analysts in oil markets who want to design sensible risk-management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]