1. Health and related economic benefits associated with reduction in air pollution during COVID-19 outbreak in 367 cities in China.
- Author
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Ye, Tingting, Guo, Suying, Xie, Yang, Chen, Zhaoyue, Abramson, Michael J., Heyworth, Jane, Hales, Simon, Woodward, Alistair, Bell, Michelle, Guo, Yuming, and Li, Shanshan
- Subjects
COVID-19 pandemic ,AIR pollution control ,AIR pollution ,TRAFFIC regulations ,AIR quality ,RANDOM forest algorithms ,COVID-19 - Abstract
Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese government implemented nationwide traffic restrictions and self-quarantine measures from January 23 to April 8 (in Wuhan), 2020. We estimated how these measures impacted ambient air pollution and the subsequent consequences on health and the health-related economy in 367 Chinese cities. A random forests modeling was used to predict the business-as-usual air pollution concentrations in 2020, after adjusting for the impact of long-term trend and weather conditions. We calculated changes in mortality attributable to reductions in air pollution in early 2020 and health-related economic benefits based on the value of statistical life (VSL). Compared with the business-as-usual scenario, we estimated 1239 (95% CI: 844–1578) PM 2.5 -related deaths were avoided, as were 2777 (95% CI: 1565–3995) PM 10 -related deaths, 1587 (95% CI: 98–3104) CO-related deaths, 4711 (95% CI: 3649–5781) NO 2 -related deaths, 215 (95% CI: 116–314) O 3 -related deaths, and 1088 (95% CI: 774–1421) SO 2 -related deaths. Based on the reduction in deaths, economic benefits for in PM 2.5 , PM 10 , CO, NO 2 , O 3 , and SO 2 were 1.22, 2.60, 1.36, 4.05, 0.20, and 0.95 billion USD, respectively. Our findings demonstrate the substantial benefits in human health and health-related costs due to improved urban air quality during the COVID lockdown period in China in early 2020. • The business-as-usual (BAU) air pollution were predicted, after adjusting for long-term trends and weather conditions. • The observed national average concentrations over February and March, 2020 were significantly lower than BAU scenario. • Considerable health and health-related economic benefits were estimated due to air quality improvements. • Higher health and economic benefits applied mostly in east, north, and central provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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