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This paper examines the monetary transmission mechanism through Islamic banks’ debt financing channel. Its purpose is to test if this channel effectively works and to verify whether the reaction of Islamic banks to interest rates depends on their specific characteristics. The research main focus is on the possible mitigating effect that profit sharing investment accounts (PSIA) could exert on the debt financing channel, since that this source of funding, specific to Islamic banks, is expected to be more stable than deposit accounts for conventional banks. The study uses a quite representative sample composed of 50 Islamic banks and the estimation of a dynamic panel model observed between 2005 and 2014 using the system GMM estimator. Empirical findings confirm the presence of a debt financing channel of monetary policy since that interest rates variation affects Islamic bank financing. PSIA growth, capitalization, assets liquidity and size are among major determinants of Islamic banks’ debt assets supply. Besides, using several robustness tests, we show that, in addition to asset liquidity and bank size, growth rate of PSIA significantly mitigate the negative effect of interest rates on debt financing growth, which highlights the importance of this specific category of deposits in monetary transmission especially for countries where Islamic and conventional banking systems coexist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a novel way to measure changes in commercial banks’ credit risk based on higher-order moments of the interest rate distribution. These measures are employed as control variables to investigate the pass-through of changes in the monetary policy rates (MPR) to retail banks’ lending rates to firms. Applying a multivariate framework it is shown that the introduced credit risk measures are statistically significant and have the expected signs. In this context, the pass-through is symmetric and complete in the short run. No evidence indicates that expectations of MPR changes matter for banks’ lending rates in Chile and robustness analyses indicate that neither do macroeconomic factors. The results suggest that credit risk should be taken into account when evaluating changes in banks’ lending rates and higher-order moments of the interest rate distribution are suitable for measuring changes in this risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes various channels of shock transmission in an economy subject to financial frictions, by incorporating liquidity and default effects on asset prices. We develop a framework in which we can assess financial stability policy by introducing a simplified model of exchange and financial intermediation that captures the effects of shocks on financial and real sectors of the economy. The model allows us to explain essential mechanisms and interactions of financial and real economic variables in a comprehensive, yet intuitive fashion. Our results suggest that liquidity and default in the credit markets should be analyzed contemporaneously when financial, monetary and productivity shocks affect financial stability as well as the real economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Post-institutionalization, the Eurozone has seen a marked increase in the integration of its financial markets. An important outcome of this has been the elimination of exchange rate risk because of the introduction of a common currency. We study the effect of this integration through a discrete-time affine term structure model with state variables obtained from the application of two extensions of principal components analysis to the multi-country setting by focusing on seven members of the Eurozone. Our results, derived from formulating and testing three hypotheses, show that Germany has gained disparately larger benefits from its membership in the Eurozone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to examine the predictive power of the term structure of Tunisia bond yields using Probit models with monthly data. The results are consistent with many studies performed in other countries and relatively inconclusive although. The yield curve can be considered as an advanced indicator for growth or recession in Tunisian economy. The paper provides significant evidence to private investors, market participants and policy makers on the usefulness of the spread in forecasting output growth for up to four quarters ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the determinants of CDS spreads for a sample of European and US banks. The key balance sheet determinants are leverage, asset quality, funding stability, and bank size, and the key market determinants are equity returns, the term structure of interest rates and bank-specific and host country sovereign credit risk. Our results would appear to confirm the applicability of Merton (1974)-type models extended to include market variables to the understanding of bank credit risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates, over 2007.01–2016.06, the determinants of six euro area sovereign bond yield spreads through original Panel-GARCH models that incorporate key features of volatility dynamics, such as extreme persistence, asymmetry and risk premia effects. Overall, EMU sovereign bond yield spreads are markedly geared by differences in creditworthiness and liquidity and also tend to reflect economic conditions and agents’ risk appetite. Moreover, we find significant and quite persistent conditional volatility, and there is evidence that higher yield spreads become less predictable, although the presence of asymmetric effects on the volatility process seems negligible. Definitely, these results have important policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the affine Gaussian term-structure model has been a workhorse model in term-structure modelling, it remains doubtful whether it is an appropriate model in a low interest rate environment. This paper uses an alternative quadratic Gaussian-term structure model which is well known to be as tractable as the affine model and yet is suitable for interest rates close to zero. Compared with the quadratic model under the zero lower bound, we illustrate how the forward term premium can be biased upward under the affine model both theoretically and empirically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the time varying behavior of pure contagion effects between Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) government bond spreads before and during the subprime mortgage crisis and the EMU debt crisis. By conducting a rolling window analysis, we are able to monitor the evolution of pure contagion effects and the changing influence of exogenous factors over time. Importantly, this is done without an ex-ante specification of the contagion window. Hence, we are able to determine the exact timing of the start and end for the different contagion periods. In contrast to related studies, we use a slightly different definition of contagious events and show that this approach leads to different conclusions about the progression of the EMU debt crisis. First, the main sources of pure contagion in the later phase of the EMU debt crisis appear to be Italy and Spain and not Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Furthermore, we find that substantial contagion effects among EMU government bond spreads (caused by Ireland and Portugal) already arise during the subprime mortgage crisis and not only during the EMU debt crisis, as one might expect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the price impact of different components of liquidity throughout the lifetime of the U.S. Treasury bond. Using the GovPX dataset, we provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of the impact of several liquidity proxies on the relative liquidity premium of these securities. The findings show that the liquidity premium has a deterministic main age-based component. This aging effect extends beyond the simple on-the-run/off-the-run effect. There is also a stochastic component of the liquidity premium that depends on the unexpected value of microstructure-based liquidity proxies and the current market- and bond-level conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine whether adopting a numerical fiscal rule framework to guide fiscal policy helps reduce sovereign risk premia in a sample of advanced and developing countries for 1985–2012. We address the self-selection problem of policy adoption by applying propensity score matching methods. The results suggest that adopting fiscal rules reduces sovereign risk premia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a recent IMF survey and expanding on previous studies, we document the use of macroprudential policies for 119 countries over the 2000–2013 period, covering many instruments. Emerging economies use macroprudential policies most frequently; especially foreign exchange related ones while advanced countries use borrower-based policies more. Usage is generally associated with lower growth in credit, notably in household credit. Effects are less in financially more developed and open economies, however, and usage comes with greater cross-border borrowing, suggesting some avoidance. And while macroprudential policies can help manage financial cycles, they work less well in busts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the interrelationships and the asymmetric co-movements between the yield spread, macroeconomic factors and the stock market volatility across five major world economies. We highlight the non-linear adjusting process of the yield spread to its equilibrium value in response to changes in stock market volatility by using a consistent threshold cointegration error correction model. Our findings differ for different countries and for states of the economy. We find that for the US, the UK, Japan, and France, the adjustment of the yield spread towards its equilibrium value portrays the existence of negative asymmetric market volatility transmission. In addition, differences in the magnitude of the effects denote that yield spread changes in Japan and France appear to significantly adjust more swiftly to equilibrium values compared to the US where a higher degree of persistence is observed. Last, our results suggest evidence of bi-directional time varying Granger causality between the yield spread and stock market volatility for all countries, in both the pre- and post-crisis period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the impact of estimation bias on various international bond markets during recent financial crises, using a unique empirical design. We estimate the Kalman filter over the period 2004–2014 using weekly data from the US and its main trading partners and construct measures of model forecasts, term premia, and risk premia in the presence of estimation bias, and in its absence. We find that the impact of estimation bias was the strongest for all sampled countries during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2010, and the ongoing eurozone sovereign debt crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A bulk of literature reports positive and significant link between inflation and relative price variability (RPV). Monetarists hold that this positive connection between the two variables exerts huge welfare consequences due to the fact that a high RPV increases output dispersion among firms. Some recent studies, however, show that the inflation–RPV nexus is neither linear nor stable over-time and thereby the inflation effects on output dispersion, appearing through this channel, should be minor. To address these ambiguities, this study directly tests the effect of inflation on output growth variability using a large panel of 25 developed and emerging European economies. Moreover, we also probe into the functional form of this nexus by employing a panel smooth transition regression model. Our results support a nonlinear relationship between the two variables and advance certain inflation thresholds below which inflation appeases the sectoral output growth variability and above this level it aggravates the later. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the role of federal funds rate volatility in affecting risk premium as measured by various money market spreads during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. We find that volatility in the federal funds market contributed to elevated Overnight Index Swap (OIS) spreads of unsecured bank funding rates during the crisis. Using OIS as a proxy for market expectations, we also decompose London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (Libor) into its permanent and transitory components in a dynamic factor framework and show that increased volatility in the federal funds market contributed to substantial transitory movements of Libor away from its long-run trend during the financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the reaction of the Euro's value against major currencies to sovereign rating announcements from Moody's, S&P and Fitch CRAs during the Eurozone debt crisis in 2010–2012 based on event study methodology combined with GARCH models. We also analyze how the yields of French, Italian, German and Spanish government long-term bonds were affected by CRA announcements. Our results reveal that CRA downgrades, watchlist and outlook announcements had no impact on the value of the Euro currency but increased exchange rate volatility. At the same time, downgrades as well as negative outlook announcements increased the yields of French, Italian, and Spanish bonds and even affected the German bond's yields. This shows that the monetary union has led to a breakdown of the consequences of the rating shocks between currency value and sovereign bond yields. The reason is that part of the rating shock is absorbed by an internal repricing of sovereign bonds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine whether macroeconomic factors contain significant information for bank loan contracting terms and conditions (T&Cs), over and above that of standard firm-specific or country-level institutional factors. Our estimation is based on a seemingly unrelated mixed-processes methodology that accommodates two salient data properties: (i) the fact that loan contract terms are determined jointly as a single lending contract, and (ii) the fact that the elements of loan T&Cs are generated by different distributional formats. Our findings indicate that cross-country variation accounts for a significant portion of observed variation in loan T&Cs. In addition, macroeconomic fundamentals significantly explain the “package” of loan T&Cs offered to corporate borrowers, with this effect being distinct from any influence that T&Cs receive from firm-specific factors, and also from country-specific institutional factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the effect of shocks to the United States government bonds term premium on Latin American government bonds term premia. For doing so, we compute dynamic multipliers. Our main findings indicate that Latin American countries’ term premia respond permanently to changes in United States term premium. However, impulse-response functions vary depending on the country and particular time-length for which premia are computed. Responses are larger for Brazil and Colombia. Mexico exhibits the lowest responses for the four economies in our study. We discuss some political economy implications of our main findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims at testing a smooth time-varying long-run relationship between the Swiss interest rates and inflation around the modification of the monetary policy strategy. In order to test for time-invariant cointegration hypothesis, we use a general cointegration model, allowing the long-run parameters to vary smoothly and slowly over time. Our finding states that the time-invariant assumption is too restrictive for the Swiss Fisher puzzle. Additionally, it is found that the full Fisher effect (i.e. the superneutrality of the inflation) cannot be rejected over the considered period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most studies examining the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates assume that the adjustment process between short term and long term interest rates is linear. However, ignoring the possible nonlinearity between interest rates may result in misleading empirical results. In this paper, we investigate the term structure of interest rates for selected Eurozone countries using the nonlinear cointegration tests introduced by Kapetanios et al. (2006). Accounting for the effects of global financial and debt crisis, we find supportive evidence for the EH for Greece during the period covering the sovereign debt crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the implications of banking competition for the interest rate channel in the Eurozone over the period 2003–2010. We use an Error Correction Model (ECM) approach to measure the long-run and short-run relationships between money market rates, bank interest rates, and our competition proxy, namely, the Lerner index. We find that competition (i) reduces the bank lending interest rates, (ii) increases the long-term interest pass-through and (iii) speeds up the adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium in the short-run. Therefore, increased competition would improve the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission through the interest rate channel, and from this point of view should be fostered in the Eurozone. Finally even if we observe that other factors related to the recent crisis matter for monetary policy transmission, bank competition remains a key determinant of the pass-through. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a new multivariate stochastic volatility model, based on the presence of a latent common factor with random jumps. The common factor is parameterized as a permanent component using a compound binomial process. This model can capture common jumps in the latent volatilities between markets, with particular relevance in the presence of crises and contagion in emerging markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the influence of macroeconomic fundamentals and the underlying 10 years Greek government bonds. We examine for the period between Q12001 up to end to Q42012, applying four major macroeconomic variables such as Debt to GDP ratio, deficit, inflation and unemployment. We found that, overall, deficit, inflation and unemployment among others, play a more significant role as determinants of the 10-year Greek bond yield, while isolating the period during the crisis macroeconomic factors strengthen their affect to the Greek Debt market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper provides a simple model for interbank loans. Since interbank trades are usually over-the-counter transactions, we use a bilateral bargaining model and apply the Nash bargaining solution. We determine the threat points and the bargaining frontier of debtor and creditor banks. We ask under which conditions interbank lending will break down. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper uses a reduced-form vector autoregressive framework to study the effects of quantitative easing and operation “twist”, as well as a conventional monetary expansion, on corporate bond yields and spreads. We construct rating- and maturity-based weekly bond portfolios using TRACE and simulate monetary policies as shocks to the Treasury yield curve. We find that none of the policies can persistently lower corporate spreads, and that operation twist is the only policy capable of lowering corporate yields. This latter finding can be accounted for by the operation twist’s ability to keep the monetary base constant and, therefore, to flatten the riskless yield curve without generating inflationary expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper proposes in a regime-shift framework, an arbitrage-free term structure model based on the target and Fed Funds Rates. Empirical observations suggest that a three-state regime-shift environment associated with FOMC monetary actions is justified. Then, a closed-form solution for zero-coupon bonds is derived where regime-shift risk is priced. The solution is flexible enough to incorporate additional state variables. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]