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Magnetars are neutron stars with extremely strong magnetic fields (1013to 1015gauss)1,2, which episodically emit X-ray bursts approximately 100 milliseconds long and with energies of 1040to 1041erg. Occasionally, they also produce extremely bright and energetic giant flares, which begin with a short (roughly 0.2 seconds), intense flash, followed by fainter, longer-lasting emission that is modulated by the spin period of the magnetar3,4(typically 2 to 12 seconds). Over the past 40 years, only three such flares have been observed in our local group of galaxies3–6, and in all cases the extreme intensity of the flares caused the detectors to saturate. It has been proposed that extragalactic giant flares are probably a subset7–11of short ?-ray bursts, given that the sensitivity of current instrumentation prevents us from detecting the pulsating tail, whereas the initial bright flash is readily observable out to distances of around 10 to 20 million parsecs. Here we report X-ray and ?-ray observations of the ?-ray burst GRB 200415A, which has a rapid onset, very fast time variability, flat spectra and substantial sub-millisecond spectral evolution. These attributes match well with those expected for a giant flare from an extragalactic magnetar12, given that GRB 200415A is directionally associated13with the galaxy NGC 253 (roughly 3.5 million parsecs away). The detection of three-megaelectronvolt photons provides evidence for the relativistic motion of the emitting plasma. Radiation from such rapidly moving gas around a rotating magnetar may have generated the rapid spectral evolution that we observe.

Abstract: Much of the current interest in pollen time series analysis is motivated by the possibility that pollen series arise from low-dimensional chaotic systems. If this is the case, short-range prediction using nonlinear modeling is justified and would produce high-quality forecasts that could be useful in providing pollen alerts to allergy sufferers. To date, contradictory reports about the characterization of the dynamics of pollen series can be found in the literature. Pollen series have been alternatively described as featuring and not featuring deterministic chaotic behavior. We showed that the choice of test for detection of deterministic chaos in pollen series is difficult because pollen series exhibit $$1/f^{\alpha }$$ power spectra. This is a characteristic that is also produced by colored noise series, which mimic deterministic chaos in most tests. We proposed to apply the Ikeguchi–Aihara test to properly detect the presence of deterministic chaos in pollen series. We examined the dynamics of cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) hourly pollen series by means of the Ikeguchi–Aihara test and concluded that these pollen series cannot be described as low-dimensional deterministic chaos. Therefore, the application of low-dimensional chaotic deterministic models to the prediction of short-range pollen concentration will not result in high-accuracy pollen forecasts even though these models may provide useful forecasts for certain applications. We believe that our conclusion can be generalized to pollen series from other wind-pollinated plant species, as wind speed, the forcing parameter of the pollen emission and transport, is best described as a nondeterministic series that originates in the high dimensionality of the atmosphere.