1. FORECAST OF CARBON EMISSION PEAK IN ANHUI PROVINCE UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION.
- Author
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Dawei Dai, Ling Zhang, Shuhang Zhao, and Biao Zhou
- Abstract
The environmental problems with climate change have become the focus of social attention. Based on STIRPAT model, ridge regression analysis is used to analyze the impact of five factors, such as resident population, per capita GDP, energy intensity, energy structure and urbanization rate, on the carbon emissions of Anhui Province. Scenario-analysis is used to set up three scenarios to forecast the carbon emissions of Anhui Province from 2020 to 2035. The results show that when other economic conditions remain unchanged, the energy structure has the most significant impact on carbon emissions, followed by the number of permanent residents. Under the high carbon scenario, there is no peak. Under the medium carbon scenario, Anhui's carbon emissions will peak in 2027, and under the low carbon scenario, the peak time will be advanced to 2025. Finally, the policy recommendations are put forward from the energy structure and urbanization development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022