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Control of crop pests by shifting host plant availability and natural enemy activity at landscape scales has great potential to enhance the sustainability of agriculture. However, mainstreaming natural pest control requires improved understanding of how its benefits can be realized across a variety of agroecological contexts. Empirical studies suggest significant but highly variable responses of natural pest control to land‐use change. Current ecological models are either too specific to provide insight across agroecosystems or too generic to guide management with actionable predictions. We suggest obtaining the full benefit of available empirical, theoretical, and methodological knowledge by combining trait‐mediated understanding from correlative studies with the explicit representation of causal relationships achieved by mechanistic modeling. To link these frameworks, we adapt the concept of archetypes, or context‐specific generalizations, from sustainability science. Similar responses of natural pest control to land‐use gradients across cases that share key attributes, such as functional traits of focal organisms, indicate general processes that drive system behavior in a context‐sensitive manner. Based on such observations of natural pest control, a systematic definition of archetypes can provide the basis for mechanistic models of intermediate generality that cover all major agroecosystems worldwide. Example applications demonstrate the potential for upscaling understanding and improving predictions of natural pest control, based on knowledge transfer and scientific synthesis. A broader application of this mechanistic archetype approach promises to enhance ecology's contribution to natural resource management across diverse regions and social‐ecological contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Integrated models can assess effects of ecosystem services on the global economy. • Insights from integrated models can improve management for sustainable development. • To be most useful, models need to link ecological impacts and human well-being. • Key advances include better incorporation of equity and social-ecological feedbacks. Integrated assessment models that incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services could be an important tool for improving our understanding of interconnected social-economic-ecological systems, and for analyzing how policy alternatives can shift future trajectories towards more sustainable development. Despite recent scientific and technological advances, key gaps remain in the scientific community's ability to deliver information to decision-makers at the pace and scale needed to address sustainability challenges. We identify five research frontiers for integrated social-economic-ecological modeling (primarily focused on terrestrial systems) to incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services: 1) downscaling impacts of direct and indirect drivers on ecosystems; 2) incorporating feedbacks in ecosystems; 3) linking ecological impacts to human well-being, 4) disaggregating outcomes for distributional equity considerations, and 5) incorporating dynamic feedbacks of ecosystem services on the social-economic system. We discuss progress and challenges along each of these five frontiers and the science-policy linkages needed to move new research and information into action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As countries consider new area-based conservation targets under the Convention on Biological Diversity, protected areas (PAs) and their impacts on people and nature are coming under increasing scrutiny. We review the evidence base on PA impacts, combining the findings from existing rigorous impact evaluations with local case studies developed for this study. We identify characteristics of PA establishment and management that improve the sustainability of biodiversity conservation and justice for local communities. We find that recognizing and respecting local values and knowledge about natural resource stewardship, colearning, and comanagement are key to achieving positive impacts for nature and people. Transforming PA governance toward more inclusive conservation depends upon the ability of PAs to be designed and implemented around the values and needs of local people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving well-being for all, while protecting the environment, is one of the most pressing global challenges of our time, and a central idea in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We believe that integrating ecosystem services, the benefits nature provides to people, into strategies for meeting the SDGs can help achieve this. Many development goals are likely underpinned by the delivery of one or more ecosystem services. Understanding how these services could support multiple development targets will be essential for planning synergistic and cost-effective interventions. Here we present the results of an expert survey on the contributions of 16 ecosystem services to achieving SDG targets linked to environment and human well-being, and review the capacity of modelling tools to evaluate SDG-relevant ecosystem services interactions. Survey respondents judged that individual ecosystem services could make important contributions to achieving 41 targets across 12 SDGs. The provision of food and water, habitat & biodiversity maintenance, and carbon storage & sequestration were perceived to each make contributions to >14 SDG targets, suggesting cross-target interactions are likely, and may present opportunities for synergistic outcomes across multiple SDGs. Existing modelling tools are well-aligned to support SDG-relevant ecosystem service planning. Together, this work identifies entry points and tools to further analyze the role of ecosystem services to support the SDGs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Nature Futures Framework is a heiristic tool for creating positive futures for nature and people. • Nature Futures scenarios explore a mix of policies that progresses the world towards positive futures. • Reflecting diverse values and worldviews helps identify context-relevant interventions. • Mutually reinforcing positive social-ecological feedbacks can accelerate transformation pathways. • Indicators representing diverse values of nature build comprehensive evidence bases for policy. The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature's contributions to people, and quality of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because wildlife and livestock compete for grazing resources, biodiversity conservation and livestock ranching typically have been portrayed as conflicting uses of African savannas. Here, we offer an alternative perspective by describing a savanna ecosystem in central Kenya where wildlife and livestock exhibit a suite of potential positive interactions. For example, treating livestock with an acaricide offers the unintended benefit of removing ticks from the landscape, a result that has now been shown to occur at both large and small scales. When humans derive financial benefits both from wildlife (through tourism) and from livestock (through food production), they may achieve greater economic stability than when income is derived solely from one source. The integrated management of wildlife and livestock can simultaneously improve human health and wildlife conservation. Optimization of human and wildlife benefits will require the management of ecological and socioeconomic trade- offs when conflicts occur between stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Riparian buffers are key places to reforest to increase ecosystem services. • Implementing existing riparian protection law in Costa Rica can lead to outsized benefits. • Small increase in forest cover leads to large increases in water quality via increased sediment and nutrient retention. • Increases in water quality are delivered to people who rely on surface water. • Reforesting benefits vulnerable populations in Costa Rica. Riparian buffers—forests along rivers—generate many essential ecosystem services, and their protection and restoration are the focus of many policy efforts. Costa Rica is a global leader in this regard, where legislative and executive frameworks work in concert to conserve forests that deliver public benefits such as water quality and carbon storage both locally and globally. Yet implementation and enforcement is an urgent challenge, and could benefit from high-resolution targeting with a quantitative understanding of expected benefits. Here, we undertake such an analysis, focusing on the benefits of implementing Forest Law 7575, which specifies the amount of forest to be preserved along rivers. We model changes in sediment retention, nutrient retention, and carbon sequestration from a baseline scenario based on current land use that is in partial compliance with the law. We contrast this with a simulated reforestation scenario, where riparian forest cover is increased to at least a minimum level of compliance (10 m buffers) everywhere. We find that targeted riparian reforestation—increasing national forest cover by 1.9 %—would substantially increase ecosystem services. Water quality regulation would be improved via an increase of 3.9 % in sediment retention (1.4 Mt/year), 81.4 % in nitrogen retention (0.012 Mt/year), and 85.9 % in phosphorus retention (0.0022 Mt/year). Moreover, riparian reforestation would increase the national carbon stock 1.4 % above current levels (7.0 Mt). Our analysis shows where riparian buffers are most beneficial—generally in steep, erosion-prone, and intensively fertilized landscapes. Through a canton-level analysis comparing potential increases in sediment and nutrient retention with demographic information, we find that these benefits would flow to communities that depend on rivers for drinking water and that are otherwise vulnerable. Small increases in riparian reforestation in Costa Rica, implemented via an existing law, could confer large benefits to rivers and all who depend on them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information about the effect of habitat complexity across scales on pest suppression of the cabbage aphid Brevicoryne brassicae in broccoli. It mentions that pest control services provided by nature impact the relationship between agricultural pests and their enemies. It also states that aphid can be overwhelmed by high rates of pest reproduction or colonization from nearby source habitat.

• Rapidly growing maize demand may result in a large-scale agricultural expansion. • Our model estimates ~ 4.0 Gt of additional CO 2 emissions from the expansion. • Expediting global yield improvement can reduce the emissions to ~ 1.1 Gt CO 2. • Our results highlight the urgent need to close global yield gaps. • Continued efforts to curb expansion in carbon-rich lands and forests are critical. Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions models generally project a downward trend in CO 2 emissions from land use change, assuming significant crop yield improvements. For some crops, however, significant yield gaps persist whilst demand continues to rise. Here we examine the land use change and GHG implications of meeting growing demand for maize. Integrating economic and biophysical models at an unprecedented spatial resolution, we show that CO 2 emissions from land conversion may rise sharply if future yield growth follows historical trends. Our results show that ~4.0 Gt of additional CO 2 would be emitted from ~23 Mha agricultural expansion from 2015 to 2026, under historical yield improvement trends. If yield gaps are closed expeditiously, however, GHG emissions can be reduced to ~1.1 Gt CO 2 during the period. Our results highlight the urgent need to close global yield gaps to minimize agricultural expansion and for continued efforts to constrain agricultural expansion in carbon-rich lands and forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) emphasize the global and multi‐dimensional nature of sustainability and thus require improving our capacity to articulate and trace the impact of ecosystem change to measures of human well‐being. Yet, the integrated nature of these goals is challenging to assess without similarly integrated assessment tools. We present a new modeling toolkit, "Mapping Ecosystem Services to Human well‐being" (MESH), that integrates commonly used, stand‐alone ecosystem services (ES) models from the InVEST suite of models to quantify and illustrate the trade‐offs and synergies across five ecosystem services and up to 10 associated SDGs. Development of the software and its functionality were informed by a broad stakeholder consultation with ministries, non‐governmental organizations and civil society groups in West Africa to identify common barriers to uptake and application of modeling tools in developing countries. In light of this process, key features included in MESH are (1) integration of multiple ecosystem service (ES) models into a common modeling framework supported by a curated base data set, (2) built‐in scenario generation capacity to support policy analysis, (3) visualization of outcomes and trade‐offs, and (4) mapping of ecosystem service change to SDG targets and goals. We illustrate the use of MESH in a case study in the Volta basin of West Africa comparing the effectiveness of three alternative conservation prioritization approaches: (1) land cover‐based, (2) topographic‐based, and (3) an ecosystem service‐based approach to minimize the impact of agricultural expansion. We evaluate these approaches by linking changes in service supply to potential impacts on achievement of specific SDG goals and targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]