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The paper outlines a dialectical approach to analyse societal tendencies by emphasising future tensions, contradictions and antagonisms. First, the theoretical baseline of the approach is a commitment to the basic tenet of dialectical thinking: a perspective of the world as a process and a becoming. Second, the approach focuses on societal and socio-technical change trajectories and various dynamics in between. Third, it is based on systems and complexity thinking, particularly the idea of a societal system consisting of various parallel and contradictory trajectories. Methodologically, the approach emphasises dialectical thinking in two lenses: positions and processes. Dialectical positionality refers to basic dialectical positions as outcomes of the dynamics between the spatiotemporal trajectories in the societal system. Dialectical processuality refers to the processual nature of future-oriented dialectics, that is, the unravelling of the spatio-temporal processes and trajectories that lead to changes in the societal system. Dialectical processes are divided into two dynamic levels: trajectory and system. The paper presents stylised examples of positions and processes on these two levels. • The paper provides arguments for why dialectical thinking is important theoretical avenue for contemplating future technological transformations in liberal societies. • The paper conceptualises a future-oriented dialectics for the analysis of dialectical positions and dialectical processes in the context societal and socio-technical trajectories. • The dialectical positions emphasise arrangements that condition societal trajectories, such as tensions, contradiction and antagonisms. • The dialectical processes highlight societal development tendencies at the levels of trajectories and systems. • The paper provides stylised examples of the dialectical positions and processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foresight is currently perceived as a critical activity in the development of innovation policies and corporate strategies. While there are many descriptions of the benefits of foresight, there is little research into how these benefits are created. In addition, although the view of innovations has shifted towards a systems understanding, the same has not happened with foresight, which is largely seen as a process. The process view and focus on the outcomes has created a situation where the dynamics between agents involved in foresight is still not well understood. One emerging approach to improve the understanding of the dynamics of foresight, and to embed foresight more closely with innovation management and policy, is the systems view. In this paper, we build on the systems view of foresight, and study what the elements in foresight as a system are and how they contribute to the creation of futures knowledge. Based on the literature, we propose six elements that are useful for understanding a foresight system and the creation of futures knowledge: agents, cognitive schemes, strategic objects, mediating events, memory objects and metaphors. We illustrate the systems view, the elements and their interaction with two case examples: one on creating future-orientation in a research and technology organisation and one on renewing a forest industry through roadmapping. Based on the elements and the case studies, we argue that the strategic objects and mediating events are important leverage points when steering foresight as a system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has always been a critical, emancipatory tradition within futures studies. Although those voices can still be heard, there has been a growing tendency for futures studies to be driven by more utilitarian needs in business and government. Whilst it is positive that futures thinking and research is increasingly valued within corporate and policy-making settings, much of that work appears to lack genuine plurality of worldviews and interests. The paper traces the changing contexts for futures research over the past 25 years. It argues that futures research needs to be viewed as part of the re-politicisation – in the Habermasian sense – of technocratic decision-making. It suggests that there are three particular reasons for revisiting the need for criticality in futures research: the increasing acknowledgement of systemic interrelatedness (ecological, social, economic), a growth in the forward-looking socio-economic paradigm that permeates both business and policy, and the challenge of theory development. Drawing on social theory and futures research, we suggest three pathways for revived critical futures research: socio-technical practices, future-oriented dialectics, and socio-economic imaginaries. As a result, the paper calls for development in futures studies that would dialectically integrate and overcome the dichotomy between instrumentalisation and (critical) theorising that can be currently understood as somewhat antagonistic. In order to find a balance between these antagonistic dimensions, futures research should be more engaged in enabling critique and revealing assumptions and interests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A typical foresight process involves stakeholders exploring the futures and interpreting the results to present actions. In other words, participants create knowledge about the future. Interaction between the participants is a key ingredient of foresight, yet this dynamic interaction has rarely been studied from the perspective of knowledge creation. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by looking at how, and through what kinds of dynamics, knowledge is created in a foresight workshop; how it is manifested; and what are the special characteristics of futures knowledge. We develop a typology of knowledge in foresight workshops, and construct an exploratory methodological approach for analysing the knowledge creation dynamics in transcribed workshop discussions. Based on the results from the analysis of two workshop discussions, we argue that futures knowledge is founded on the knowledge base formed by the participants and new knowledge is created both through cumulative discussion flow and revelatory statements which reframe the discussion or challenge implicit assumptions. We argue that the typology of knowledge as well as the exploratory method aid in understanding futures expertise and support the planning of foresight processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a process for supporting strategic decision-making and policy planning in systemic transitions related to grand challenges such as climate change. The process uses the multi-level perspective (MLP) 1 1 MLP, multi-level perspective (Geels, 2004). as an underlying theoretical framework and combines various methods and tools from the fields of foresight, impact assessment, simulation modelling and societal embedding. Decision-makers such as public sector authorities and politicians are the main target group, accompanied by other stakeholders and interest groups whose involvement throughout the process is stressed. The process is presented as a stepwise methodological working process and demonstrated by a theoretical case study. The demonstration explores the vision of ‘emission-free transport in cities by 2050’ in the context of motorised passenger transport in the Helsinki metropolitan area in Finland. The case study serves as an example of how to implement the process and how to make case-specific selections from the methods and tools from suggested fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the main development characteristics within the transport system as we are approaching the ubiquitous phase of the information society. Particularly the challenges in designing transport policies on a rapidly evolving technological frontier are emphasised. The theoretical background of the paper stems from policy assessment as well as futures studies, especially from technology roadmapping. The paper presents a socio-technical roadmapping method as a tool to integrate the technology developments better with societal developments and transport policy design. The method is tested with a Finnish case study, which provides three thematic, complementary roadmaps of the potential transport system technology services of the future. The roadmaps illustrate what kind of technologies, services, actors and related policy relevant knowledge is needed in satisfying the demands of transport policy development in the future''s ubiquitous society. The case study reveals several changes in the transport system: pluralised number of actor roles and actor networks in the system, emergence of a new kind of business and service layer because of the new dynamic inter-linkages between the actors, and further, possibility to capture the service layer with the concept of “technology service”. The changes require also re-conceptualisation of knowledge production to support transport policies. In conclusion, the socio-technical roadmapping holds great potentials as a tool for aligning technology development with transport policy development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Along with increasing significance of innovation in socio-economic development grows the need to utilize future-oriented knowledge in innovation policy-making. Foresight and road-map exercises are aimed at supporting planning and priority-setting of R&D and have become indispensable elements of policy-making. Besides technological development decision-makers need all-inclusive knowledge of future developments of society, economy and impacts of science and technology. When the worldwide competition is about the attractiveness of innovation systems, such knowledge is important for comparing the innovation performance of nations to other economies. Finland is among the countries improving her position in worldwide performance comparisons since the late 1990s and reached leading nations in early 2000s. This attainment raised national interest and critical debate of the reliability of the data basis and methodologies used in comparisons. In The Finnish Association of Graduate Engineers (TEK) this discussion led to a decision to develop an own comparative exercise together with VTT. In addition to performance analysis based on ex-post indicators the barometer includes the questionnaire of the views and visions of the future development by relevant national actors. The theoretical framework of the barometer is based on the evolution of economies from industrial development phase to sustainable knowledge society. The barometer has been undertaken in 2004, 2005 and 2007, and a wide interest and emerged discussion of barometer proves that a social interest and order exists for the barometer. The article presents the background, methodology and results of technology barometer, discusses its impacts on national discussion, and gives perspectives for the future development of barometer. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The article discusses the possible societal transition from information society toward biosociety. Furthermore, the impacts of this possible transition on professional and educational branches (PEBs) are examined. It is based on the study completed in Lahti Center at the Helsinki University of Technology between years 2001¿2003. In the study, the most important developing key technologies were defined and their impacts on professions analysed through the application of Delphi technique. The developing key technology groups were information and communication technology, biotechnology, and material and nanotechnology. In addition, combinations of these technologies, that is, so-called fusion technologies, were also subjects for analysis. The first empirical aim was to analyse the plausibility and the timing of the so-called technological theses. The following technologies (technological theses) were deemed to be the most important ones: highly selective drugs, sensors, integrated technology, biomedical materials, photonic materials, 3G technology, intelligent materials, diagnostics, and virtual reality. The second empirical objective of the study was to analyze the professional and educational impacts of these technologies. Moreover, the article takes an experimental glance into the future through the creation and evaluation of ¿future professions¿. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• The paper discusses Ansoffian and constructivist traditions of weak signal theories. • Despite the differences of these theoretical traditions, both approach weak signals as emerging and linearly evolving constructs. • We suggest a novel approach based on a relational theoretical perspective. • A relational theory of futures knowledge deciphers the questions of contexts, positions and relations of futures arguments and premises. • The approach is simultaneously complementary and contradictory compared to the Ansoffian and constructivist traditions. In this paper we propose a framework to re-think and widen the theoretical assumptions behind so-called weak signal theory in futures studies. This paper suggests that the present understanding of weak signals views the topic as a question of linear emergence, that is, a sequence of development that perceives the topic evolving from an embryo towards a full-blown future issue or trend. However, this viewpoint does not take into account the context and perspective – or positionality – of the perceiver. This issue has, we argue, wide-ranging effects on the identification and interpretation of weak signals. Thus, as a response to this gap, we outline a relational theory of futures knowledge that aims to consider this missing theoretical baseline and widen the understanding of the nature and formation of weak signals. The theory builds on selected tenets of behavioural economics, psychology, human geography and anthropology. This paper outlines the principles of current weak signal theory and depicts the relational theory. It also provides selected empirical examples to emphasise the points made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]