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This paper provides information on theoretical sociology. By theoretical is meant "theory-using." Any type of statistical technique uses a model of nature, that is, a certain technique makes assumptions about reality and here the approach to theory construction is through the use of models. This is the orientation which regards each theoretical construction in levels, from the most abstract to the most empirical—and each theory construction should contain some of these levels. In this paper the concern will be with the use of an orientation involving the reduction of linear models of techniques which makes a first step towards this. The author also discusses rather more techniques. By following this course, the logic underpinning stochastic analytical techniques, and causal modeling techniques can be revealed. Also it is hoped to reveal how theoretical sociology can be synthesized with a branch of statistics.

This paper looks at an area, which has proved very attractive to the stochastic modeler, that of social mobility. The author wants to survey it, not so much from the point of view of the mathematician striving to achieve the best fit he can to the data available, but more from the point of view of the sociologist who needs models which provide him with a theoretic framework which is readily translated into sociological concepts, and which contain assumptions to which the subject matter of the process, the individual actors, may reasonably be expected to adhere. This paper surveys a number of approaches to the finding of an appropriate mathematical model of social mobility. The author compares them with respect to the sociological theory of mobility, and concludes that the last model discussed is by far the most satisfactory from this point of view. One can anticipate a considerable gain in knowledge of social mobility when empirical research puts such a model to the test.

The paper discusses the predictive ability and the items selected by the Gluecks research organization for their predictive devices are those arrived at by strict analytic multivariate techniques and represent findings that cannot be faulted by criticisms of the Glueck methodology. In 1950, Professor Sheldon Glueck and Dr. Eleanor T. Glueck published "Unraveling Juvenile Delinquency," a multidisciplinary, detailed comparison of 500 delinquent and 500 nondelinquent boys. In 1960, Professor Glueck, at the request of the editors of the "Journal of Criminal Law, Criminology and Police Science," prepared a paper for the issue to commemorate fifty years of publication of that Journal. The first of the criticisms is grounded in the fact that not all individualist used in Unraveling had complete observations on all. 400 items involved in the origin research. The reasons for these missing observations are varied. The nature of missing observations generally decides their impact on an experiment. There are three distinguishable types of missing observations: random, non-random, and indeterminate.

In presenting this paper, the editorial board recognizes a new type of research tool which Mr. Smith has applied to police problems. In his article, the example cited has been reduced to the simplest terms, and to many experienced police officers the ultimate conclusion may seem obvious. The article is not presented with the idea of solving this particular simplified problem, but rather to call attention to the methods that are available and to arouse interest of our readers in the application of game theory to police problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]