Search

Aim: We studied the distribution of freshwater macroinvertebrate taxa and traits to distinguish ecological gradients among the mining-controlled and natural headwaters, as well as rural and urban economic activities influences. Location: In 2016’s dry season, macroinvertebrate samples were collected at 40 locations in the Mashcon watershed, northern Peruvian Andes. Six locations were in the headwaters directly influenced by mining, eight near-pristine tributary headwaters,14 agricultural locations at midstream and 12 urban locations downstream. Methods: Eight traits (five biological and three ecological) were selected according to data availability, and modalities scores were assigned using the weighted and the dominant-trait approaches. The traits relative abundances and abiotic conditions were compared among watershed sections. The ecological interpretability of the ungrouped data was verified with a distance-based redundancy analysis. Results: The high-altitude mining section had fewer taxa types and abundance as well as distinct body forms distributions and prevalent body sizes in macroinvertebrate communities, relatable to the control of the mining headwaters. Physiological and ecological traits (respiration, mobility and attachment, food sources, feeding habits, saprobity and pH preferenda) differed among traits quantification approaches and were less informative at high altitudes. The ecological conditions from the near-pristine tributaries recovered in the vegetated midstream section, to again be affected in the downstream urban section. Main conclusions: Our results suggest the presence of ecological impairment despite the excellent physicochemical quality of the water discharged by the mine. The obtainment of autecological information at a higher taxonomic resolution, e.g. for ubiquitous taxa like Acari and Chironomidae, would be needed to advance the freshwater quality assessment of ecologically- and hydrogeochemically-complex Andean mining ecosystems. ispartof: Diversity And Distributions vol:28 issue:8 pages:1582-1596 status: accepted

Little Ruaha catchment has been recognized for its potential to support multi-projects including irrigated schemes, urban water supply and providing significant inflow to Mtera reservoir for hydropower generation and ultimately Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant (JNHPP). Despite the potential, the catchment has experienced declining flows in the recent years. This study assessed the likely changes in streamflow due to future climate change in the Little Ruaha catchment for the period 2025-2060. General Circulation Model (GCM) datasets from ACCESS1.0, CNRM-CM5 and BCC-CSM1 models and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenarios were selected as the representative scenarios. Impact of climate change on stream flows was assessed using the calibrated NAM hydrological model. The impact assessment results show that under the climate change scenario (2025–2060), the monthly maximum and minimum temperatures will increase in the range of 0.8 °C to 2 °C for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For the case of rainfall, average annual rainfall is expected to increase by about 10% compared to the baseline. However, the inter-annual variability of rainfall for the period between 2025 and 2060 shows the decreasing trend for RCP 8.5. The simulation results show that streamflow will decrease by about 30% and 6% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Keywords: Hydrological modelling; climate change scenarios; hydrological impacts; Little Ruaha.

This dataset includes the daily hydrological simulations under climate change scenarios for the Manic-5 watershed in Canada and the Xiangjiang watershed in China. The format of all files is binary MATLAB file (.mat). The hydrological simulations for each watershed were obtained through an impact modeling chain, which comprises multiple options for each step. To be specific, three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5), 22 global climate models, 6 downscaling techniques, 5 hydrological models, and 5 sets of parameters for each hydrological model are included. Thus, there are overall 9900 hydrological simulations over the reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) periods for each watershed. This dataset can be used to evaluate the overall uncertainty and uncertainty components in the modeling of hydrological impacts from climate change.

International audience; A warmer climate impacts streamflows and these changes need to be quantified to assess future risk, vulnerability, and to implement efficient adaptation measures. The climate simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which have been the basis of most such assessments over the past decade, are being gradually superseded by the more recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our study portrays the added value of the CMIP6 ensemble over CMIP5 in a first North America wide comparison using 3,107 catchments. Results show a reduced spread of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the CMIP5 ensemble for temperature and precipitation projections. In terms of flow indicators, the CMIP6 driven hydrological projections result in a smaller spread of future mean and high flow values, except for mountainous areas. Overall, we assess that the CMIP6 ensemble provides a narrower band of uncertainty of future climate projections, bringing more confidence for hydrological impact studies.

This study aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on hydrometeorological variables and drought characteristics in the Ethiopian Bilate watershed. Climate projections under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were obtained from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa for the near future (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) periods. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to assess changes in watershed hydrology with the CORDEX-Africa data. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) were calculated to identify the characteristics of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts, respectively. Due to a significant rise in temperature, evapotranspiration will increase by up to 16.8% by the end of the 21st century. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the annual average rainfall is estimated to decrease by 38.3% in the far future period, inducing a reduction of streamflow of up to 37.5%. Projections in reduced diurnal temperature range might benefit crop growth but suggest elevated heat stress. Probabilities of drought occurrence are expected to be doubled in the far future period, with increased intensities for all three types of droughts. These projected impacts will exacerbate water scarcity and threaten food securities in the study area. The study findings provide forward-looking quantitative information for water management authorities and decision-makers to develop adaptive measures to cope with the changing climate.

Study region Northern Ireland (NI), and sub-catchments in the Republic of Ireland that drain to NI rivers, Study focus Information on the potential future impacts of climate change on river flows is necessary for adaptation planning. There have been many such studies for Great Britain, but fewer for NI. Here, a grid-based hydrological model is configured for NI, and used to investigate changes in seasonal mean, extreme high and extreme low flows. New Hydrological Insights When driven by observed climate data, the model shows good performance for a wide range of catchments, particularly where artificial influences are limited. When driven by ensemble data from the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) projections, model performance for the baseline period (1981–2010) is similar to that using observed data, especially when using a simple precipitation bias-correction. Model projections for a future time-slice (2051–2080) generally suggest decreases in spring–autumn mean flows, especially in summer (median −44%), but possible increases in winter mean flows (median 9%), with some variation between ensemble members, particularly in winter when some show large increases to the west. Consistent with this are large projected reductions in 10-year return period low flows everywhere (median −45%), and large increases in 10-year return period high flows for some locations and ensemble members (median 16%). Future applications could include expanding the range of climate data applied.

The river flow regime and water resources are highly important for economic growths, flood security, and ecosystem dynamics in the Mekong basin – an important transboundary river basin in South East Asia. The river flow, although remains relatively unregulated, is expected to be increasingly perturbed by climate change and rapidly accelerating socioeconomic developments. Current understanding about hydrological changes under the combined impacts of these drivers, however, remains limited. This study presents projected hydrological changes caused by multiple drivers, namely climate change, large-scale hydropower developments, and irrigated land expansions by 2050s. We found that the future flow regime is highly susceptible to all considered drivers, shown by substantial changes in both annual and seasonal flow distribution. While hydropower developments exhibit limited impacts on annual total flows, climate change and irrigation expansions cause changes of +15% and −3% in annual flows, respectively. However, hydropower developments show the largest seasonal impacts characterized by higher dry season flows (up to +70%) and lower wet season flows (−15%). These strong seasonal impacts tend to outplay those of the other drivers, resulting in the overall hydrological change pattern of strong increases of the dry season flow (up to +160%); flow reduction in the first half of the wet season (up to −25%); and slight flow increase in the second half of the wet season (up to 40%). Furthermore, the cumulative impacts of all drivers cause substantial flow reductions during the early wet season (up to −25% in July), posing challenges for crop production and saltwater intrusion in the downstream Mekong Delta. Substantial flow changes and their consequences require careful considerations of future development activities, as well as timely adaptation to future changes.

Approximately 70% of all the electric energy produced in Brazil comes from hydropower plants. In this context, the Grande River Basin (GRB) stands out in Brazil. Some studies have been carried out to investigate the impacts of climate change in tropical regions to support water resources’ management and planning. This study aims to project the changes in the runoff that feed the Furnas Hydropower Plant (FHP) reservoir (GRB-Furnas basin), the largest and most important facility in Southeast Brazil. The lavras simulation of hydrology model (LASH) was used to project the impacts on runoff and hydrological droughts over the century in GRB-Furnas. The regional climate models (RCMs) Eta-HadGEM-ES, Eta-MIROC5, and Eta-CanESM2 forced the LASH model from 2007 to 2099, taking the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. LASH simulated the runoff adequately for the baseline period (1961–2005) using the RCMs’ outputs. A noticeable reduction in precipitation was identified in the wet season, especially in the 2007–2040 period for RCP4.5 and in the 2071–2099 period for RCP8.5. As a result, a significant reduction in the runoff, mainly in the baseflow, and an increase in droughts’ severity were projected throughout the XXI Century, which may compromise the water security to the FHP reservoir.

The study was carried out to investigate the fitness for purpose of the high-resolution Austrian National Climate datasets (ÖKS15) in hydrological applications. Provided as a standard for climate impact studies in Austria in 2016, the potential of the ÖKS15 data for hydrological impact studies has not previously been assessed. To fill this research gap, we evaluated the ÖKS15 datasets for the recent climate period (1961–2005) to determine their suitability for hydrological analyses. Hydro-meteorological indicators of the ÖKS15 datasets, as well as of the data used to obtain them by bias correcting and downscaling the EURO-CORDEX models, were assessed at different spatio-temporal scales and compared to the raw EURO-CORDEX data. The hydrological model WaSiM was driven with the different datasets to generate the hydrological simulations used for validation against long-term observations. Hydro-meteorological indicators obtained from ÖKS15 models are comparable to observations and associated with less uncertainty than the raw EURO-CORDEX data. We thus consider the ÖKS15 dataset basically appropriate for hydrological impact studies. However, despite bias correction, some biases in the ÖKS15 data remain and differences in timing, magnitude and spatial characteristics lead to deviations in hydrological indicators at different scales. Fonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung W1256 Klima- + Energiefonds (DE-588)1058967959 KR16AC0K13305 Version of record

Climate change affects natural systems, leading to increased acceleration of global water cycle and substantial impacts on the productivity of tropical rivers and the several ecosystem functions they provide. However, the anticipated impacts of climate change in terms of frequency and intensity of extreme events (e.g., droughts and floods) on hydrological systems across regions could be substantially different. This study therefore aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the streamflow of a large river basin located in central Australia (Cooper Creek-Bulloo River Basin). Modified version of the hydrological model Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) was used in this study to generate daily streamflow. This model was first calibrated (2001–2010) and then validated for two independent periods (1993–1997 and 2011–2015). The model depicted a good performance in simulating observed streamflow. Climate projection data from multiple general circulation models (ACCESS1.0, CanESM2, CESM1-CAM5, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, NorESM1-M, ACCESS1-0, ACCESS1-3, CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3.6, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR, and NorESM1-M) in various forms (raw, statistically downscaled, dynamically downscaled, and bias adjusted) were considered in this study. Results showed that three high resolution dynamically downscaled and bias adjusted models (ACCESS1-3, CNRM-CM5, and MPI-ESM-LR) from Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) dataset (v1.0.2) have better performance than other models considered, that is, in terms of capturing observed precipitation over the basin. Future climate projections of ensemble of these three models forced with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios were then used to generate streamflow for 2050s (2040–2069) and 2080s (2070–2099). Results of the study indicated that mean annual precipitation was projected to decrease by up to −8% in 2050s and temperature was projected to increase by up to 4.66 °C in 2080s under the average and extreme emission scenarios, respectively. Mean annual, mean seasonal (December–February, March–May, June–August, September–November), and mean monthly streamflow were projected to decrease under different emission scenarios in 2050s and 2080s. These results indicate decreased water availability in the future as well as water cycle intensification. These changes in streamflow might have impacts on agriculture, natural ecosystem, and could lead to water restrictions. The outcome of this study can directly feed into frameworks for sustainable management of water resources and support adaptation strategies that rely on science and policy to improve water resources allocation in the region.

Anthropogenic activities such as damming have caused an alteration in the natural flow regime in many rivers around the world. In this study, the role of constructing a hydroelectric dam on the natural flow regime of the Kor River, Iran, is investigated. Nine different methods, which fall into the category of hydrological methods, were used to determine the environmental water requirement (EWR) of the Kor River. In addition, two indices are introduced to evaluate the environmental flow allocation in anthropogenic rivers. The results show that although the supply of environmental flow in some months is in relatively acceptable conditions on average, there is a deficiency in the allocation of EWR in the range of 1.92–30.2% in the spawning period of the dominant fish species. The proposed indicators can provide a general picture of the status of environmental flow allocation in rivers where little ecological data is available and the hydrological regime has changed due to human activities, particularly in rivers with hydropower plants. Moreover, after the construction of the dam, no major floods have occurred in the river, which has led to the loss of the morpho-ecological balance in the river and disruption of the natural state of habitats. Therefore, the negative impact of dam construction on the environmental conditions of the river should be considered in the active management of the dam outlets.

The quantification of climate change impacts on hydrology is subjected to multiple uncertainty sources. Large ensembles of hydrological simulations based on multimodel ensembles (MMEs) have been commonly applied to represent overall uncertainty of hydrological impacts. However, as increasing numbers of global climate models (GCMs) are being developed, how many GCMs in MMEs are sufficient to characterize overall uncertainty is not clear. Therefore, this study investigates the influences of GCM quantity on quantifying overall uncertainty and uncertainty contributions of multiple sources in hydrological impacts. Large ensembles of hydrological simulations are obtained through the permutation of 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios, 22 GCMs, 6 downscaling techniques, 5 hydrological models (HMs), and 5 sets of HM parameters, which enables to decompose uncertainty components using analysis of variance. The influences of GCM quantity are investigated by repeatedly conducting uncertainty decomposition for hydrological simulations from subsets with different numbers of GCMs. The results show that GCMs are the leading uncertainty sources in evaluating changes in annual and peak streamflows, while for changes in low flow, other uncertainty sources except HM parameters also have large contributions to overall uncertainty. Furthermore, on the condition of using no more than five GCMs, there are large possibilities that the overall uncertainty and GCMs' uncertainty contribution are underestimated. Using around 10 GCMs can ensure that the median of different combinations generates similar uncertainty components as the whole ensemble. Therefore, it is recommended to use at least 10 GCMs in studies of climate change impacts on hydrology to thoroughly quantify uncertainty.

There is a high demand for openly accessible hydroclimatic data for climate change adaptation. Different data sources are available, however, discrepancy between the data can confuse users and should be evaluated and explained. This study, investigates how climate impact indicators (CIIs) developed for global users in the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) are comparable to other openly available global data for water and climate. We found that, for temperature, datasets are comparable and climate impacts are thus considered robust. Important discrepancies arise in the precipitation indicators. Of the CIIs analysed in this study, the hydrological CIIs differ most so they should be used with care. These differences are probably caused by model uncertainty (hydrological model, HM; global climate model, GCM), ensemble size and model selection. A HM ensemble, as well as a GCM ensemble combined with improved model performance and selection criteria, should be used to ensure high-quality global water and climate services.

The 2015/2016 El Niño has been classified as one of the three most severe on record. El Niño teleconnections are commonly associated with droughts in southern Africa and high precipitation in eastern Africa. Despite their relatively frequent occurrence, evidence for their hydrological effects and impacts beyond agriculture is limited. We examine the hydrological response and impact pathways of the 2015/2016 El Niño in eastern and southern Africa, focusing on Botswana, Kenya, and Zambia. We use in situ and remotely sensed time series of precipitation, river flow, and lake levels complemented by qualitative insights from interviews with key organizations in each country about awareness, impacts, and responses. Our results show that drought conditions prevailed in large parts of southern Africa, reducing runoff and contributing to unusually low lake levels in Botswana and Zambia. Key informants characterized this El Niño through record high temperatures and water supply disruption in Botswana and through hydroelectric load shedding in Zambia. Warnings of flood risk in Kenya were pronounced, but the El Niño teleconnection did not materialize as expected in 2015/2016. Extreme precipitation was limited and caused localized impacts. The hydrological impacts in southern Africa were severe and complex, strongly exacerbated by dry antecedent conditions, recent changes in exposure and sensitivity and management decisions. Improved understanding of hydrological responses and the complexity of differing impact pathways can support design of more adaptive, region-specific management strategies.

Study region Catchments: Wolzerbach, Raab; Styria; Austria. Study focus The study was carried out to investigate the fitness for purpose of the high-resolution Austrian National Climate datasets (OKS15) in hydrological applications. Provided as a standard for climate impact studies in Austria in 2016, the potential of the OKS15 data for hydrological impact studies has not previously been assessed. To fill this research gap, we evaluated the OKS15 datasets for the recent climate period (1961–2005) to determine their suitability for hydrological analyses. Hydro-meteorological indicators of the OKS15 datasets, as well as of the data used to obtain them by bias correcting and downscaling the EURO-CORDEX models, were assessed at different spatio-temporal scales and compared to the raw EURO-CORDEX data. The hydrological model WaSiM was driven with the different datasets to generate the hydrological simulations used for validation against long-term observations. New hydrological insights for the region Hydro-meteorological indicators obtained from OKS15 models are comparable to observations and associated with less uncertainty than the raw EURO-CORDEX data. We thus consider the OKS15 dataset basically appropriate for hydrological impact studies. However, despite bias correction, some biases in the OKS15 data remain and differences in timing, magnitude and spatial characteristics lead to deviations in hydrological indicators at different scales.

The consequences of climate change on food security in arid and semi-arid regions can be serious. Understanding climate change impacts on water balance is critical to assess future crop performance and develop sustainable adaptation strategies. This paper presents a climate change impact study on the water balance components of an agricultural watershed in the Mediterranean region. The restructured version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) model was used to simulate the hydrological components in the Sulcis watershed (Sardinia, Italy) for the baseline period and compared to future climate projections at the end of the 21st century. The model was forced using data from two Regional Climate Models under the representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios developed at a high resolution over the European domain. River discharge data were used to calibrate and validate the SWAT+ model for the baseline period, while the future hydrological response was evaluated for the mid-century (2006–2050) and late-century (2051–2098). The model simulations indicated a future increase in temperature, decrease in precipitation, and consequently increase in potential evapotranspiration in both RCP scenarios. Results show that these changes will significantly decrease water yield, surface runoff, groundwater recharge, and baseflow. These results highlight how hydrological components alteration by climate change can benefit from modelling high-resolution future scenarios that are useful for planning mitigation measures in agricultural semi-arid Mediterranean regions.

Regional climate model (RCM) results could not be duly represented by the IPCC 2013 Report, focusing mostly on global climate models (GCM). The aim of our study is to provide a literature insight into these types of results, based on the recent Report by the EEA (2017). After a brief comparison of the GCMs and RCMs, averages of short- and long-term projections of temperature and precipitation changes are provided. Hydrological changes are represented by run-off, mountain glaciers and snow mass. These and other, non-hydrological impacts are also listed from the Report. This short review, delimited by the length, page size and colouring of the hardcopy, is finishing by the experienced destruction caused by the weather extremes over Europe. The original sources, together with the EEA quotations are referred.

A key motivation for managing invasive alien plant (IAP) species is their impacts on streamflows, which, for the wetter half of South Africa, are about 970 m 3 ∙ha −1 ∙a−1 or 1 444 mill. m3 ∙a −1 (2.9% of naturalised mean annual runoff), comparable to forest plantations. However, the implications of these reductions for the reliability of yields from large water supply systems are less well known. The impacts on yields from the WCWSS were modelled under three invasion scenarios: ‘Baseline’ invasions; increased invasions by 2045 under ‘No management’; and under ‘Effective control’ (i.e. minimal invasions). Monthly streamflow reductions (SFRs) by invasions were simulated using the Pitman rainfall−runoff catchment model, with taxonspecific mean annual and low-flow SFR factors for dryland (upland) invasions and crop factors for riparian invasions. These streamflow reduction sequences were input into the WCWSS yield model and the model was run in stochastic mode for the three scenarios. The 98% assured total system yields were predicted to be ±580 million m 3 ∙a −1 under ‘Effective control’, compared with ±542 million m 3 ∙a −1 under ‘Baseline’ invasions and ±450 mill. m 3 ∙a −1 in 45 years’ time with ‘No management’. The ‘Baseline’ invasions already reduce the yield by 38 mill. m 3 ∙a −1 (two thirds of the capacity of the Wemmershoek Dam) and, in 45 years’ time with no clearing, the reductions would increase to 130 mill. m 3 ∙a −1 (capacity of the Berg River Dam). Therefore IAP-related SFRs can have significant impacts on the yields of large, complex water supply systems. A key reason for this substantial impact on yields is that all the catchments in the WCWSS are invaded, and the invasions are increasing. Invasions also will cost more to clear in the future. So, the best option for all the water-users in the WCWSS is a combined effort to clear the catchments and protect their least expensive source of water. Keywords : invasive alien plants, hydrological impacts; streamflow reduction, system yield

The Upper Niger Basins (UNB) and the Inner Niger Delta (IND) are integral parts of the Niger River Basin, which flows through 10 countries and constitutes the third longest river in Africa. Natural climate variability and human interventions are two major factors affecting the hydrological regime in the UNB and IND. This study focuses on the later factor, by assessing the hydrological impacts of key existing and planned manmade structures and irrigation schemes in the UNB: the Sélingué (existing dam in Mali), four variants of the Fomi/Moussako dam (planned in Guinea), and Office du Niger (irrigation scheme located in Mali). The Fomi /Moussako dam will be located in the headwaters of the UNB and therefore, is expected to alter the hydrological regime in large parts of the watershed. Expected impacts include a reduction of the flood peak which will adversely affect critical ecosystems in the IND, and higher flows directly downstream of the dams in the dry season to sustain irrigation. These higher flows will, however, be consumed by Office du Niger irrigation scheme, leading to possible severe water shortages downstream of the irrigation scheme and in the IND. This is likely to affect the Malian economy and the poorest parts of its population, as the IND is crucial for the socio-economic and ecological preservation and development of the population surrounding it. The hydrological impacts of the dams and the irrigation scheme were evaluated in this study by developing a model of the IND and UNB using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). After the model was calibrated, the effects of the dams and the irrigation scheme on selected flow statistics (mean and standard deviation) were determined at fourteen hydrological stations. In general, the results have shown that (1) the Fomi/Moussako dam will noticeably reduce the downstream high flows, and reduce the average flow; (2) if the Fomi/Moussako dam was to be built, the alternatives with the least storage volume (Moussako 388.5') will have the least impacts on the downstream flows. To assist in related decision making for various users, a Decision Support System (DSS) was also developed. The goal of the DSS is to help users analyze the effects of dams and irrigation on the flow regime by performing a comparative analysis (presence and absence of dams and irrigation in the river). A number of potential adaptation measures were also proposed.

Fires have significant impacts on soil erosion and water supply that may be exacerbated by future climate. The aims of this study were: To simulate the effects of a large fire event in the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model previously calibrated to a medium-sized watershed in Portugal; and to predict the hydrological impacts of large fires and future climate on water supply and soil erosion. For this, post-fire recovery was parametrized in SWAT based on satellite information, namely, the fraction of vegetation cover (FVC) calculated from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The impact of future climate was based on four regional climate models under the stabilization (RCP 4.5) and high emission (RCP 8.5) scenarios, focusing on mid-century projections (2020–2049) compared to a historical period (1970–1999). Future large fire events (>3000 ha) were predicted from a multiple linear regression model, which uses the daily severity rating (DSR) fire weather index, precipitation anomaly, and burnt area in the previous three years; and subsequently simulated in SWAT under each climate model/scenario. Results suggest that time series of satellite indices are useful to inform SWAT about vegetation growth and post-fire recovery processes. Different land cover types require different time periods for returning to the pre-fire fraction of vegetation cover, ranging from 3 years for pines, eucalypts, and shrubs, to 6 years for sparsely vegetated low scrub. Future climate conditions are expected to include an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation with marked uneven seasonal distribution, and this will likely trigger the growth of burnt area and an increased frequency of large fires, even considering differences across climate models. The future seasonal pattern of precipitation will have a strong influence on river discharge, with less water in the river during spring, summer, and autumn, but more discharge in winter, the latter being exacerbated under the large fire scenario. Overall, the decrease in water supply is more influenced by climate change, whereas soil erosion increase is more dependent on fire, although with a slight increase under climate change. These results emphasize the need for adaptation measures that target the combined hydrological consequences of future climate, fires, and post-fire vegetation dynamics., The project received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 641762. FCT—Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P.,under the project FirESmart “PCIF/MOG/0083/2017”.

The aim of this work is to investigate the soil water budget across China by means of hydrological modeling under current and future climate conditions and to evaluate the sensitivity to soil parameters. For this purpose, observed precipitation and temperature data (1981–2010) and climate simulations (2021–2050, 2071–2100) at high resolution (about 14 km) on a large part of China are used as weather forcing. The simulated weather forcing has been bias corrected by means of the distribution derived quantile mapping method to eliminate the effects of systematic biases in current climate modeling on water cycle components. As hydrological models, two 1D models are tested: TERRA-ML and HELP. Concerning soil properties, two datasets, provided respectively by Food and Agriculture Organization and U.S. Department of Agriculture, are separately tested. The combination of two hydrological models, two soil parameter datasets and three weather forcing inputs (observations, raw and bias corrected climate simulations) results in five different simulation chains. The study highlights how the choice of some approaches or soil parameterizations can affect the results both in absolute and in relative terms and how these differences could be highly related to weather forcing in inputs or investigated soil. The analyses point out a decrease in average water content in the shallower part of the soil with different extents according to climate zone, concentration scenario and soil/cover features. Moreover, the projected increase in temperature and then in evapotranspirative demand do not ever result in higher actual evapotranspiration values, due to the concurrent variations in precipitation patterns.

There is growing interest in the capacity of mangrove ecosystems to sequester and store ‘blue carbon’. Here, we provide a synthesis of 66 dated sediment cores with previously calculated carbon accumulation rates in mangrove ecosystems to assess the effects of environmental and anthropogenic pressures. Conserved sedimentary environments were found to be within the range of the current global average for sediment accretion (approx. 2.5 mm yr –1 ) and carbon accumulation (approx. 160 g m −2 yr −1 ). Moreover, similar sediment accretion and carbon accumulation rates were found between mixed and monotypic mangrove forests, however higher mean and median values were noted from within the forest as compared to adjacent areas such as mudflats. The carbon accumulation within conserved environments was up to fourfold higher than in degraded or deforested environments but threefold lower than those impacted by domestic or aquaculture effluents (more than 900 g m −2 yr −1 ) and twofold lower than those impacted by storms and flooding (more than 500 g m −2 yr −1 ). These results suggest that depending on the type of impact, the blue carbon accumulation capacity of mangrove ecosystems may become substantially modified.

The 2015/2016 El Niño has been classified as one of the three most severe on record. El Niño teleconnections are commonly associated with droughts in southern Africa and high precipitation in eastern Africa. Despite their relatively frequent occurrence, evidence for their hydrological effects and impacts beyond agriculture is limited. We examine the hydrological response and impact pathways of the 2015/2016 El Niño in eastern and southern Africa, focusing on Botswana, Kenya, and Zambia. We use in situ and remotely sensed time series of precipitation, river flow, and lake levels complemented by qualitative insights from interviews with key organizations in each country about awareness, impacts, and responses. Our results show that drought conditions prevailed in large parts of southern Africa, reducing runoff and contributing to unusually low lake levels in Botswana and Zambia. Key informants characterized this El Niño through record high temperatures and water supply disruption in Botswana and through hydroelectric load shedding in Zambia. Warnings of flood risk in Kenya were pronounced, but the El Niño teleconnection did not materialize as expected in 2015/2016. Extreme precipitation was limited and caused localized impacts. The hydrological impacts in southern Africa were severe and complex, strongly exacerbated by dry antecedent conditions, recent changes in exposure and sensitivity and management decisions. Improved understanding of hydrological responses and the complexity of differing impact pathways can support design of more adaptive, region-specific management strategies.

Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater–salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC) and land use and land cover (LULC) change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC) scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it), and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes) and sea level rise (SLR). The proposed analysis is valuable for improving our knowledge about the aquifer, and so comprises a tool to design sustainable adaptation management strategies taking into account the uncertainty in future GC conditions and their impacts. The results show that GC scenarios produce significant increases in the variability of flow budget components and in the salinity., Unidad de Granada, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, España, Universidad Católica de Murcia, España, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón de la Plana, España

A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this - to date - the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862-3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11-165 km2) and glacierization (24-77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0-20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25-80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4-20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011-2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997-2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071-2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June. © Author(s) 2018.

Climate change impacts need to be considered in water resource planning. This work aims to study of the impacts climate change on Lavrinha headwater watershed, located in the Mantiqueira Range, southeastern Brazil. The impacts from climate change (RCP 8.5 scenario) in the Lavrinha watershed runoff were analyzed based on the "Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model" (DHSVM), forced with the climate simulated for this future climate change scenario. These simulations, in turn, were generated by the Eta regional climate model coupled to Global Climate Model (GCM) HadGEM2-ES for the 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 periods. The results of this study showed that the runoff is very sensitive to rising temperatures and reduced precipitation, both projected for the RCP 8.5 scenario. The hydrological simulation projected a reduction in the monthly streamflow between 20 and 77% over the twenty-first century (2011-2099), corresponding to drastic reductions in the runoff behavior and consequently in the water production capacity of the region. RESUMO O impacto das mudanças climáticas precisa ser considerado no planejamento dos recursos hídricos. Este trabalho tem por objetivo o estudo dos impactos das mudanças climáticas na bacia de cabeceira Lavrinha, localizada na Serra da Mantiqueira, Sudeste do Brasil. Os impactos oriundos das mudanças climáticas (cenário RCP 8.5) no escoamento da bacia hidrográfica Lavrinha foram analisados com base no modelo "Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model" (DHSVM), forçado com as condições climáticas simuladas para este cenário futuro de mudanças climáticas. Estas simulações, por sua vez, foram geradas pelo modelo climático regional Eta acoplado ao Modelo Climático Global (MCG) HadGEM2-ES, nos períodos de 2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2099. Os resultados deste estudo mostraram que a vazão é bastante sensível ao aumento da temperatura e diminuição da precipitação, ambos projetados para o cenário RCP 8.5. A simulação hidrológica projetou uma redução na vazão mensal entre 20 e 77% ao longo do século XXI (2011 a 2099), correspondendo a reduções drásticas no escoamento e, consequentemente, na capacidade de produção de água da região.

Precipitation extremes play a key role in flooding risks over the Huaihe River Basin, which is important to understand their hydrological impacts. Based on observed daily precipitation and streamflow data from 1958 to 2009, eight precipitation indices and three streamflow indices were calculated for the study of hydrological impacts of precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the wet condition intensified in the summer wet season and the drought condition was getting worse in the autumn dry season in the later years of the past 50 years. The river basin had experienced higher heavy rainfall-related flooding risks in summer and more severe drought in autumn in the later of the period. The extreme precipitation events or consecutive heavy rain day events led to the substantial increases in streamflow extremes, which are the main causes of frequent floods in the Huaihe River Basin. The large inter-annual variation of precipitation anomalies in the upper and central Huaihe River Basin are the major contributor for the regional frequent floods and droughts.

International audience; Forest fire can modify and accelerate the hydrological response of Mediter- ranean basins submitted to intense rainfall: during the years following a fire, the effects on the hydrological response may be similar to those produced by the growth of impervious areas. Moreover, climate change and global warming in Mediterranean areas can imply consequences on both flash flood and fire hazards, by amplifying these phenomena. Based on historical events and post-fire experience, a methodology to interpret the impacts of forest fire in terms of rainfall-runoff model parameters has been proposed. It allows to estimate the consequences of forest fire at the watershed scale depending on the considered burned area. In a second stage, the combined effect of forest fire and climate change has been analysed to map the future risk of forest fire and their consequence on flood occur- rence. This study has been conducted on the Llobregat river basin (Spain), a catchment of approximately 5,000 km2 frequently affected by flash floods and forest fires. The results show that forest fire can modify the hydrological response at the watershed scale when the burned area is significant. Moreover, it has been shown that climate change may increase the occurrence of both hazards, and hence, more frequent severe flash floods may appear.

This report presents the water and climate adaptation plan (WATCAP) developed for the Sava river basin (SRB) as result of a study undertaken by the World Bank. The WATCAP is intended to help to bridge the gap between the climate change predictions for the SRB and the decision makers in current and planned water management investment projects that will be affected by changing climate trends. The purpose of the report is to: (i) assist stakeholders and decision makers in assessing and planning for the risks generated by climate change impacts on water resources; (ii) provide a basis for future plans and studies of adaptation to climate change impacts in the SRB; and (iii) stimulate cooperation and debate across the basin toward additional and more detailed studies on climate change impacts at the regional and basin scale. The SRB is projected to experience small increases in water use by the public water supply, industry, energy, and agricultural and irrigation sectors. However, it is widely expected that new hydropower plants (HPPs) will be constructed in the near future, making energy (primarily through hydropower) the most important water use in the SRB.

The impacts of invasions by alien plant species on the quantity of rainwater that reaches rivers and streams have been studied in several countries. Some studies have found that there is a large impact and others have found little or no impact. These conflicting conclusions can be explained largely by differences in the structure (e.g. height, depth of root systems) and the physiology (e.g. evergreen, deciduous, water stress tolerance) between the alien and the indigenous plant species. The greater the differences between the two, the greater the impact is likely to be., There have been many studies of the diverse impacts of invasions by alien plants but few have assessed impacts on water resources. We reviewed the information on the impacts of invasions on surface runoff and groundwater resources at stand to catchment scales and covering a full annual cycle. Most of the research is South African so the emphasis is on South Africa's major invaders with data from commercial forest plantations where relevant. Catchment studies worldwide have shown that changes in vegetation structure and the physiology of the dominant plant species result in changes in surface runoff and groundwater discharge, whether they involve native or alien plant species. Where there is little change in vegetation structure [e.g. leaf area (index), height, rooting depth and seasonality] the effects of invasions generally are small or undetectable. In South Africa, the most important woody invaders typically are taller and deeper rooted than the native species. The impacts of changes in evaporation (and thus runoff) in dryland settings are constrained by water availability to the plants and, thus, by rainfall. Where the dryland invaders are evergreen and the native vegetation (grass) is seasonal, the increases can reach 300–400 mm/year. Where the native vegetation is evergreen (shrublands) the increases are ∼200–300 mm/year. Where water availability is greater (riparian settings or shallow water tables), invading tree water-use can reach 1.5–2.0 times that of the same species in a dryland setting. So, riparian invasions have a much greater impact per unit area invaded than dryland invasions. The available data are scattered and incomplete, and there are many gaps and issues that must be addressed before a thorough understanding of the impacts at the site scale can be gained and used in extrapolating to watershed scales, and in converting changes in flows to water supply system yields.

Se realiza una descripción sintética de la hidrogeología de la masa de agua subterránea (M.A.Sb.) de Lebrija (Sevilla-Cádiz), y en particular del sector meridional de la misma donde se asienta la laguna de Los Tollos. El establecimiento de una explotación minera de arcillas fibrosas en el entorno de la laguna, así como las extracciones de aguas subterráneas para facilitar las labores mineras y para el abastecimiento urbano y el uso agrícola, produjeron impactos importantes sobre el funcionamiento hidrogeológico natural, principalmente caídas en los niveles piezométricos y migración de aguas salinas. La evolución hidrogeológica en el entorno de la laguna tras el cese de las actividades impactantes, indica una recuperación general de niveles en todos los subsistemas, y una tendencia a la igualación de los mismos. Esta recuperación, aunque positiva, es aún insuficiente de cara a la restauración ambiental que persigue el proyecto en que se enmarca este trabajo, A brief description of the hydrogeology of the GroundWater Body (GWB) of Lebrija (Cadiz-Seville) has been made, especially of its southern part, where Los Tollos shallow lake is located.An open pit mine of fibrous clays in the vicinity of the lake, as well as groundwater withdrawals to facilitate the mining and supply for urban and agricultural use, produced significant impacts on the natural hydrogeological functioning of the shallow lake. Such impacts where mainly a general lowering of the water table in the area and migration of saline water.The hydrogeological evolution of the area, after the ending of the environmental pressures, shows both a general recovery in all the aquifers of the GWB and a tendency for equilibrium. This recovery, although positive, is still not enough to achieve a complete environmental restoration of the lake,which is the main objective of the project in which this work is framed

Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological models (eight) were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

Se realiza una descripción sintética de la hidrogeología de la masa de agua subterránea (M.A.Sb.) de Lebrija (Sevilla-Cádiz), y en particular del sector meridional de la misma donde se asienta la laguna de Los Tollos. El establecimiento de una explotación minera de arcillas fibrosas en el entorno de la laguna, así como las extracciones de aguas subterráneas para facilitar las labores mineras y para el abastecimiento urbano y el uso agrícola, produjeron impactos importantes sobre el funcionamiento hidrogeológico natural, principalmente caídas en los niveles piezométricos y migración de aguas salinas. La evolución hidrogeológica en el entorno de la laguna tras el cese de las actividades impactantes, indica una recuperación general de niveles en todos los subsistemas, y una tendencia a la igualación de los mismos. Esta recuperación, aunque positiva, es aún insuficiente de cara a la restauración ambiental que persigue el proyecto en que se enmarca este trabajo A brief description of the hydrogeology of the GroundWater Body (GWB) of Lebrija (Cadiz-Seville) has been made, especially of its southern part, where Los Tollos shallow lake is located.An open pit mine of fibrous clays in the vicinity of the lake, as well as groundwater withdrawals to facilitate the mining and supply for urban and agricultural use, produced significant impacts on the natural hydrogeological functioning of the shallow lake. Such impacts where mainly a general lowering of the water table in the area and migration of saline water.The hydrogeological evolution of the area, after the ending of the environmental pressures, shows both a general recovery in all the aquifers of the GWB and a tendency for equilibrium. This recovery, although positive, is still not enough to achieve a complete environmental restoration of the lake,which is the main objective of the project in which this work is framed

Dans les bassins versants méditerranéens où les zones cultivées en vigne occupent une part importante de l'espace, les pratiques culturales sont un facteur important d'apparition de risques de pollution diffuse des eaux par les pesticides. Au cours de la thèse, une démarche de modélisation couplée pression-impact a été développée. La question de recherche a porté sur la prise en compte dans le modèle construit de la dynamique des variables d'état du milieu modifiées par les actions culturales. Deux variables ont été identifiées : l'infiltrabilité de la surface du sol et la concentration en matières actives au sol. A l'échelle du bassin versant, pour réaliser l'évaluation des impacts, on s'est appuyé sur l'utilisation du modèle hydrologique distribué MHYDAS qui permet de simuler les flux d'eau et de polluants selon différents scenarii de pratiques et climatiques. Pour représenter la répartition spatio-temporelle des opérations culturales sur chacune des parcelles du bassin versant, le modèle décisionnel DHIVINE a été construit. Il permet de simuler les itinéraires techniques des viticulteurs. Pour chaque exploitation du bassin versant, le modèle est basé sur une représentation de la conduite technique annuelle du vignoble sous forme de plans d'activités. Ces plans mettent en oeuvre des indicateurs d'états de l'agrosystème et prennent en compte les caractéristiques des ressources productives de l'exploitation ainsi que les arbitrages à réaliser entre opérations culturales et parcelles concurrentes. Des modèles biophysiques ont été développés pour simuler les indicateurs de la décision ainsi que l'impact des différentes pratiques sur les états de surface du sol qui conditionnent l'infiltrabilité du sol en surface. Une typologie fonctionnelle des états de surface basée sur leurs propriétés d'infiltrabilité du sol a été utilisée pour développer une démarche visant une modélisation continue dans le temps de l'infiltration. Elle intègre une modélisation parallèle de la dynamique des états de surface du sol nu et du développement de la couverture herbacée par les adventices. Un couplage des modèles a été réalisé sous la plate-forme OpenFLUID. La démarche adoptée ici permet de représenter les dynamiques différentes des variables d'état du milieu en fonction de différentes pratiques culturales et semble adaptée pour l'évaluation des impacts en terme de pollution de l'eau par les pesticides à l'échelle de bassins versants viticoles méditerranéens., In Mediterranean catchments in which vineyards account for a major share of the area, cropping practices are an important factor with respect to increasing risks of diffuse pesticide pollution of water. This study was about developping an approach for pressure-impact modelling. The research question considered dynamics of agrosystem status variables modified by cropping actions. Two variables were identified : soil surface infiltrability and active material concentration on the soil. On a catchment scale, to assess impacts, we used the distributed hydrological model MHYDAS to simulate water and pollutant flows according to different cropping practice and climatic scenarios. To represent the spatiotemporal distribution of cropping operations on each plot, the decision model DHIVINE was built. It simulates vinegrowers's crop management sequences. For each farm in the catchment, the model is based on a representation of the vineyard annual technical management strategy in the form of activity plans. These plans involve agrosystem status indicators and take into account the characteristics of productive resources on the farm and arbitration between cultivation operations and competing plots. Biophysical models were developped to simulate decision indicators and impacts of cropping practices on soil surface characteristics which are drivers of soil surface infiltrability. A functional typology of soil surface states based on their soil infiltrabilty properties was used to develop an approach for temporally continuous modelling of infiltration. It was based on a parallel modelling of dynamics (i) of soil surface characteristics of bare soil and (ii) of weed cover development. Model coupling was realized with OpenFLUID platform. The approach developped herein allows simulating dynamics of agrosystem status variables as a function of cropping practices. It seems adapted for assessing hydrological impacts at the catchment scale in Mediterranean environments.

International audience

An example of karst water resources exploitation : snow production in Villard-de-Lans-Corrençon-en-Vercors (Isere, France) This article proposes a geographical approach of water resources exploitation on Villard-de-Lans and Correncon-en-Vercors karst (Isere, France). Increasingly employed around the world on skiable fields to make reliable ski lifts exploitation, artificial snow is also largely used on Villard-Corrençon ski resort, in answer to the variability of snow-covered precipitations of Vercors plateau. Winter sports tourism, and particularly downhill skiing, is indeed one of the economic activities of this territory. The snow production requires important water volumes onto a field which, taking into account its karstic characteristics, presents paradoxically a relative surface aridity. To satisfy these needs, the karstic emergence of Goule Blanche is exploited. Since its discharge system, which concentrates the whole of the underground flows, water is conveyed at a long distance towards two artificial storage reservoirs built on the skiable field, via the drinking water network of Villard-de-Lans. The analysis of the interrelationships between the various water uses involved (artificial snow, drinking water, hydroelectricity), and the impacts of artificial snow on the karstic water resources, allow us to question the application of integrated water resources management concept on this territory., Cet article a pour objet l'exploitation des ressources en eau du karst de Villard-de-Lans et de Corrençon-en-Vercors (Isère, France) pour la production de neige. De plus en plus employée sur les domaines skiables pour fiabiliser l'exploitation des remontées mécaniques, la neige de culture l'est aussi largement sur le domaine skiable de Villard-Corrençon. Cette pratique est une réponse à la variabilité des précipitations neigeuses du massif du Vercors. Le tourisme des sports d'hiver, le ski alpin en particulier, est en effet une des activités économiques importantes de ce territoire. La production de neige nécessite la mobilisation d'importants volumes d'eau sur un terrain qui, compte tenu de ses caractéristiques karstiques, présente une relative indigence d'eau en surface. Pour satisfaire ces besoins en eau, l'émergence de Goule Blanche est exploitée. Depuis cet exutoire karstique, l'eau est acheminée vers deux ouvrages artificiels de stockage construits sur le domaine skiable, en passant par le réseau d'eau potable de la commune de Villard-de- Lans. L'analyse des interrelations entre les différents usages de l'eau en présence (neige de culture, eau potable, hydroélectricité), et des impacts de la production de neige sur le karst et ses ressources en eau, nous permet de questionner l'application du concept de gestion durable de la ressource en eau sur ce territoire., Paccard Pierre. Un exemple d'exploitation des ressources en eau du karst : la production de neige à Villard-de-Lans - Corrençon-en-Vercors (Isère, France). In: Karstologia : revue de karstologie et de spéléologie physique, n°53, 1er semestre 2009. Stalagmites et imageries 3D dans l'aven d'Orgnac. pp. 41-52.

Les bassins versants influencés par la présence de barrages-réservoirs constituent les objets d'étude de cette thèse. L'objectif principal est de mettre au point une méthode de prise en compte, au sein d'un modèle pluie-débit global, de l'impact de retenues d'eau artificielles sur le comportement hydrologique du bassin versant. Un tel outil, simple dans sa conception, doit permettre d'améliorer la simulation des débits de bassins versants influencés et d'évaluer l'impact de barrages-réservoirs sur le régime hydrologique des cours d'eau, en particulier lorsque l'on se place loin à l'aval de l'ouvrage. La démarche adoptée est empirique dans le sens où l'on a cherché, sur une base de données de 46 bassins versants situés en France, aux Etats-Unis et au Brésil, à exploiter au mieux, dans la structure du modèle pluie-débit, une information simple sur les ouvrages, à savoir l'évolution temporelle des volumes stockés dans les retenues. La diversité des conditions hydro-climatiques présentes dans la base de données donne aux résultats obtenus un caractère assez général. Au cours de cette thèse, un grand nombre de solutions de prise en compte des barrages-réservoirs a été testé. Les résultats montrent que cette information sur les remplissages des ouvrages peut être utilement exploitée au sein d'une structure de modèle global pour améliorer la simulation des bassins influencés. Les solutions qui se sont révélées être les plus performantes n'engendrent pas de complexification de la structure initiale du modèle puisqu'aucun ajout de paramètre n'a été nécessaire. Des gains de performances significatifs ont été réalisés, en particulier sur la simulation des étiages. Il s'agit d'un résultat important de la thèse car il montre qu'il est possible de prendre explicitement en compte, dans un modèle pluie-débit global, les barrages-réservoirs présents sur le bassin versant. Nous avons ensuite essayé de comprendre le lien entre la méthode de prise en compte des barrages-réservoirs et certaines caractéristiques physiques des bassins versants et des ouvrages de stockage afin de tenter d'adapter la solution au bassin versant considéré. Les résultats de ces tests ont montré que ce lien est difficile à mettre en évidence et qu'à ce stade, une solution générique semble la plus efficace. La solution la plus performante a ensuite été évaluée sur un échantillon complémentaire de 31 bassins versants n'ayant pas servi à son développement. L'évaluation a confirmé l'intérêt de la méthode pour l'amélioration des simulations des débits mais a également montré sa sensibilité à la disponibilité des données de stockages ainsi qu'aux transferts interbassins inconnus.