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Dış borç özellikle kaynak gereksinimi bulunan gelişmekte olan ülkelerde artış göstermektedir. Zira dış borç gereksinimini etkileyen birçok unsur olmakla birlikte gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yurtiçi tasarrufların yetersizliği, ülke içinde sermaye birikimi ve yatırımların yapılması önünde en büyük engellerden birini oluşturmaktadır. Bu kapsamda ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınmanın gerçekleştirilmesinde yabancı ülkelerden sağlanan dış borçların sürdürülebilirliği de önem arz etmektedir. Nitekim dış borçların sürdürülebilirliği, mali politikaların oluşturulması dolayısıyla da ülkelerin makro dengelerinin sağlanmasında kilit bir unsurdur.Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde 1974-2020 yıllarını kapsayan periyotta dış borçların sürdürülebilir olup olmadığı geleneksel birim kök testlerinden ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller) ve tek yapısal kırılmaya izin veren Zivot-Andrews birim kök testiyle analiz edilmiştir. Bu kapsamda hem ADF testinde hem de Zivot-Andrews yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testinde dış borç servislerinin ihracat gelirleri ve gayrisafi milli hasıla içindeki payı serilerinin birim kök sürecine sahip olduğu dolayısıyla incelenen dönemde dış borçların sürdürülemez olduğu tespit edilmiştir., External debt is increasing especially in developing countries that need resources. Although there are many factors affecting the external debt requirement, the inadequacy of domestic savings in developing countries constitutes one of the biggest obstacles to capital accumulation and investments in the country. In this context, the sustainability of foreign debts obtained from foreign countries is also important in the realization of economic growth and development. As a matter of fact, the sustainability of external debts is a key factor in establishing fiscal policies and thus ensuring the macro balance of countries.In this study, the sustainability of external debt in the Turkish economy in the period of 1974-2020 was analyzed with the traditional unit root tests ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller) and the Zivot-Andrews unit root test, which allows a single structural break. In this context, in both the ADF test and the Zivot-Andrews structural break unit root test, it has been determined that foreign debt services' export revenues and their share in gross national product have a unit root process, so external debt is unsustainable in the examined period.

Dış borç özellikle kaynak gereksinimi bulunan gelişmekte olan ülkelerde artış göstermektedir. Zira dış borç gereksinimini etkileyen birçok unsur olmakla birlikte gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yurtiçi tasarrufların yetersizliği, ülke içinde sermaye birikimi ve yatırımların yapılması önünde en büyük engellerden birini oluşturmaktadır. Bu kapsamda ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınmanın gerçekleştirilmesinde yabancı ülkelerden sağlanan dış borçların sürdürülebilirliği de önem arz etmektedir. Nitekim dış borçların sürdürülebilirliği, mali politikaların oluşturulması dolayısıyla da ülkelerin makro dengelerinin sağlanmasında kilit bir unsurdur. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde 1974-2020 yıllarını kapsayan periyotta dış borçların sürdürülebilir olup olmadığı geleneksel birim kök testlerinden ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller) ve tek yapısal kırılmaya izin veren Zivot-Andrews birim kök testiyle analiz edilmiştir. Bu kapsamda hem ADF testinde hem de Zivot-Andrews yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testinde dış borç servislerinin ihracat gelirleri ve gayrisafi milli hasıla içindeki payı serilerinin birim kök sürecine sahip olduğu dolayısıyla incelenen dönemde dış borçların sürdürülemez olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

The paper is trying to stress the high level of Romania's external indebtedness, both sovereign and private, associated with an unpredictable economic environment and an unfavourable global and regional context. The research objectives are mainly devoted to quantitative and qualitative assessments of the current and long run challenges of the external debt sustainability faced by Romania. The results of the study highlight inter-conditional ties between short-term and medium-long term debt, public and private debt, internal and external public debt. The increase in the long-term external debt stock (more than two times during 2007-2013) led to a significant rise in the related annual service (17.8% of GDP in 2013), deteriorating the financial framework of Romania and the growth perspectives. Excessive levels of the external debt and critical debt-to-GDP ratio are recorded in the case of Romania as compared to international standards. Despite large external borrowings, due to the lack of their efficiency, the results in terms of economic development are much below expectations. The easiness of recursion to external borrowings by the government and the debt rollover year by year contravene to intergenerational ethics.

Between the sustainability of the current account deficit and the sustainability of the external debt there is a direct connection: the accumulation of external deficits generates in a certain degree the increase of the external debt stock and, at the same time, problems with its sustainability. The analysis of the external debt sustainability constitute a subject of interests for the researchers, both from a theoretical but also empirical point of view, offering various perspectives according to the economical background and future expectations of the international debtors and creditors. The main purpose of this article is to investigate the sustainability of Romania’s external debt during the recent financial crisis that determined without any doubt a reconfiguration of the worldwide economic architecture with reference to the main indicators that are considered by the literature in the field to be relevant in shaping the general framework of debt sustainability. This analysis may be perceived as a starting point for the responsible authorities to develop new strategies that would enable a proper management of the external debt in order to achieve high economic growth rates without any financial compromises.

Sub-Saharan African countries as a group showed a considerable reduction in public and external indebtedness in the early 2000s as a result of debt relief programs, higher economic growth, and improved fiscal management for some countries. More recently, however, vulnerabilities in some countries are on the rise, including a few with very rapid debt accumulation. This paper looks at the heterogeneous experiences across Sub-Saharan African countries and the detailed dynamics that have driven changes in public debt since the global financial crisis. Borrowing to support fiscal deficits since 2009, including through domestic markets and Eurobond issuance, has driven a net increase in public debt for all countries except oil exporters benefitting from buoyant commodity prices and fragile states receiving post-2008 Highly Indebted Poor Country relief. Current account deficits and foreign direct investment inflows drove the external debt dynamics, with balance of payments problems associated with very rapid external debt accumulation in some cases. Pockets of increasing vulnerabilities of debt financing profiles and sensitivity of debt burden indicators to macro-fiscal shocks require close monitoring. Specific risks that policy makers in Sub-Saharan Africa need to pay attention to going forward include the recent fall in commodity prices, especially oil, the slowdown in China and the sluggish recovery in Europe, dependence on non-debt-creating flows, and accounting for contingent liabilities.

Even if one could not say that governments and international organizations took the most appropriate rescue and/or stimulus packages, the worst effects of the financial crisis seem to be overcome. Signs of recovery occurred in the developed countries by the end of 2009, but the question of sustainability is arising. Romania was hit hard by the crisis in 2009, suffering a severe contraction of the economy, estimated at 7.1 percent. The worsening of the external and internal financial framework of Romania and the danger of a currency market crisis urged the need for a financing agreement with IMF. The study shows that, more or less, the parameters adapted for Romania.regarding the MLT external debt sustainability entered already the significant risk zone. In the baseline scenario, assuming favourable economic circumstances,an exit of Romania from this risk zone could be possible by 2015. In the alternative scenario, an excessive burden of external debt compared with financing resources needed to comply with the external payments obligations would maintain Romania on the brink of default risk. Supplementary risks associated with unfavourable developments of the external context and also with pressures coming from a non-restructured public debt could make the default situation even unavoidable.

The paper focuses on the sharp increase in the external debt level, both sovereign and private, threatening Romania’s financial stability, associated with weaknesses and risks arising from an unpredictable business environment and an unfavourable global and regional context. The study highlights inter-conditional ties between short-term and long-term debt, public and private debt, internal and external public debt. The increase in long-term external debt stock (more than two times during 2007-2013) has led to a significant rise in the related annual service (17.8% of GDP in 2013), deteriorating the financial framework of Romania and the growth perspectives. Excessive levels of the external indebtedness and critical debt-to-GDP ratio are recorded in the case of Romania as compared to international standards and national specific, exposing the debt position to higher default risk. Despite large external borrowings, due to the lack of their efficiency, the results, in terms of economic development and competitiveness gains, are much below expectations. The easiness of appeal to external borrowings by successive governments and the debt rollover year by year contradicts the principle of intergenerational ethics.

Between the sustainability of the current account deficit and the sustainability of the external debt there is a direct connection: the accumulation of external deficits generates in a certain degree the increase of the external debt stock and, at the same time, problems with its sustainability. The analysis of the external debt sustainability constitute a subject of interests for the researchers, both from a theoretical but also empirical point of view, offering various perspectives according to the economical background and future expectations of the international debtors and creditors. The main purpose of this article is to investigate the sustainability of Romania’s external debt during the recent financial crisis that determined without any doubt a reconfiguration of the worldwide economic architecture with reference to the main indicators that are considered by the literature in the field to be relevant in shaping the general framework of debt sustainability. This analysis may be perceived as a starting point for the responsible authorities to develop new strategies that would enable a proper management of the external debt in order to achieve high economic growth rates without any financial compromises.

Çoğu gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomilerinde karşılaşılan en önemli makroekonomik sorunların başında kamu açıkları gelmektedir. Ekonomi literatürü kamu açıklarını açıklamaya yönelik iki temel konu üzerine odaklanmıştır. Bu konulardan biri son zamanlarda kamu borçlarındaki birikim, diğeri ise bütçe açıkları ve kamu borçları konusunda ülkeler arasında gözlenen önemli farklılıklardır. Birçok gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomilerinde ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınmanın finansmanı için gerekli olan ülke kaynaklarının yetersiz olması bu ülkeleri dış kaynak bulmaya zorlamaktadır. Bu durum sonucunda ise dış borç bu ülkeler için önemli bir finansal kaynak olmaktadır.Gerek gelişmiş ve gerekse gelişmekte olan birçok ülke ekonomilerinde olduğu gibi Türkiye ekonomisi için de dış borç oldukça önemli bir kaynaktır. Bu kapsamda ülkemizde dış borç genellikle tasarruf ve döviz açıklarını gidermek ve yüksek büyüme hızına ulaşabilmek için alınmaktadır. Ülke kaynaklarının yetersiz kalması sonucunda ilk zamanlar ek bir kaynak olarak alınan dış borçlar etkin bir şekilde kullanıldıklarında yatırımları, ekonomik büyümeyi ve kalkınmayı hızlandırmaktadır. Ancak, alınan dış borcun etkin ve verimli olarak kullanılmaması ve dış borç anapara ve faiz ödemelerinin ulusal gelir artışından daha fazla artış göstermesi, borçları ödeyebilmek için tekrar borç alınmasını gerektirmektedir. Bunun sonucunda ise dış borç yükü artarak ülkenin refahında bir azalmaya yol açmaktadır.Bir ülke ekonomisinde dış borçlanma gerek yapısı ve gerekse alınma amaçları bakımından ayrıcalıklı bir konuma sahiptir. Bu nedenle siyasi karar alma sürecinde dış borçlanma ile ekonomiye aktarılan dış kaynakların etkin kullanılıp kullanılmadığını belirlemek için belli ölçütler dikkate alınmalı ve bu doğrultuda analizler yapılarak, elde edilen sonuçlara göre borçlanılması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı; 1980'den günümüze dış borç stokunun ve dış borç servisinin ülke ekonomisine etkisini değerlendirmek ve Türkiye'de 1980-2010 yılları arası dış borçların sürdürülebilirliğini zaman serilerine dayalı eşbütünleşme analizi yardımıyla açıklamaktır.Anahtar kelimeler: Kamu Açıkları, Kamu Borçları, Dış Borçlar, Eşbütünleşme, Dış Borçların Sürdürülebilirliği Public deficits come from beginning of the most important macroeconomic problems in most of the developed and developing country economies. Economic literature on the explanation of public deficits has been focusing on two main issues. These one of the topics is the accumulation of public debts in recent decades and, on the other hand, the large observed cross-countries differences on public deficits and debt. In many developing country economies, insufficient resources which are necessary for economic growth and development, force the developing countries to find external resources. As a result of this situation, external debt is important financial resources for these countries.External debt is also very important resource for Turkey's economy such as in both many developed and developing country?s economies. In this context, external debt is taken generally in order to counter the saving and foreign exchange deficits and reach the high growth rate in our country. As a result of insufficient resources of country, external debts which are initially taken as additional resources can accelerate the investments, economic growth and development when they are used efficiently. However, if the external debts aren?t used effectively and efficiently, and the principal and interest payments of the external debts become higher than national income increase, it is required to get debts again to pay debts. As a result of this, it causes to increase external debt burden and decrease the country welfare.External borrowing has a privileged position due to its purposes of received and its structure in a country?s economy. For this reason, it is required to make analysis by considering some criteria in order to determine whether external debts transferred to the economy are used efficiently or not and the countries must get debts according to these results in the process of political decision. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of external debt stock and external debt servicing to the economy from the 1980 to today and to explain the sustainability of external debt between 1980-2010 periods in Turkey by using the cointegration analysis based on time series.Keywords: Public Deficits, Public Debt, External Debt, Cointegration, External Debt Sustainability 156

Elaborating on PAsinetti (1998), the 'Geometry of Debt Sustainability' - GDS - represents a simple analytical tool for the analysis of the long run sustainability of foreign debt. GDS provides a simple analysis of three aspects of debt sustainability. It points up how the 'structural' aspect - NICA, the non-interest current account - is closely interlinked with the purely 'financial' aspect. The paper focuses on low income countries, LICs, which face several daunting tasks at once: economic growth, human development and regular debt service. Therefore GDS is also used to analyse the 'human development' aspect of debt sustainability. By considering the three aspects together it emerges that there might be a very stringent trade-off between regular debt service and human development expenditures. All the more so because mosto LICs suffer from structural NICA deficits and GDS highlights the fact its improvement is a anecessary condition to achieve long-run debt sustainability. However, export diversification and the building of stronger trading capacities take time. GDS shows why both debt cancellation and additional aid are necessary to give indebted low income economies a chance to improve both human development and long-run economic viability.

This paper analyses debt relief efforts by creditors to alleviate the debt burden of lowincome countries. The Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative builds on traditional debt relief, and for the first time involves relief on multilateral debt. It seeks to reduce debt to sustainable levels and eliminate any debt overhang that might hinder growth and investment. It provides substantial debt relief to eligible countries by reducing their overall debt stocks by about one-half, or, together with traditional relief over time, by some 80 per cent. It lowers debt service payments of HIPCs substantially, provides room for increased social spending, and provides a solid basis for debt sustainability. The latter requires efforts by both debtors and creditors. To find poverty reduction efforts, HIPC relief is important, but much broader international support is needed as external transfers to HIPCs in the past far exceeded debt service paid. Experience has shown that external support can only be effective if it reinforces sound policies implemented by HIPCs themselves. Thus debt relief and ODA are most important not in isolation, but as help for self-help.