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To succeed with projects, we need to understand and manage uncertainty. Uncertainties impact a project’s cost, time, and quality performance. The project’s front end is challenging for decision makers due to the high level of uncertainty. This paper identifies the most common uncertainties and their origin in the pre-project phase of large road projects. It also analyses the changes in these factors over 20 years. Document studies collected information about uncertainty factors identified in the early phase of 90 large road projects. The research strategy was explanatory, and data were collected from quality assurance reports from a population of large Norwegian road projects. The project cost varies between USD 30 million and over USD 2 billion. Then, 15-factor groups were established for categorising uncertainties. This study shows a rise in uncertainty factors with operational origins and a decrease in uncertainty factors with strategic and contextual origins over the last 20 years. Identifying and understanding common uncertainties and their origins provides policymakers, practitioners, and researchers with useful insights for policy revision and investment decision making and facilitates a proper focus regarding uncertainty analyses in the front end of road projects.

Any study that examines the effects of area-based attributes on individual behaviors or outcomes faces another fundamental methodological problem besides the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). It is the problem that results about these effects can be affected by how contextual units or neighborhoods are geographically delineated and the extent to which these areal units deviate from the true geographic context. The problem arises because of the spatial uncertainty in the actual areas that exert the contextual influences under study and the temporal uncertainty in the timing and duration in which individuals experienced these contextual influences. Using neighborhood effects and environmental health research as a point of departure, this article clarifies the nature and sources of this problem, which is referred to as the uncertain geographic context problem (UGCoP). It highlights some of the inferential errors that the UGCoP might cause and discusses some means for mitigating the problem. It reviews recent studies to show that both contextual variables and research findings are sensitive to different delineations of contextual units. The article argues that the UGCoP is a problem as fundamental as the MAUP but is a different kind of problem. Future research needs to pay explicit attention to its potential confounding effects on research results and to methods for mitigating the problem.

Literature on the formation of intention toward entrepreneurship in adolescents has focused on either parental (vertical) transmission of social capital or network effects from peers or neighbours (horizontal). Considering the simultaneous effect of parents, peers, and neighbours, we suggest that such three levels identify a mechanism whereby the individual perception of their importance interacts with their objective characteristics. With a unique dataset for second-year high-school adolescents in the Italian city of Palermo, and employing Logit and 3SLS methods, we find evidence for a strong parental effect and for secondary peer (peers) effects on student intention. We also detect clear endogenous effects from the neighbourhood and the overall context. Moreover, entrepreneurship is confirmed to be perceived, even by high-school students, as a buffer for possible unemployment and social mobility.